Reversing that long, strong decline: Daily deaths edged up again a tiny tad yesterday.
(We're dealing in 7-day averages nationwide. We're using the Washington Post's data. We've adjusted for the way New Jersey changed its accounting procedures last week.)
From May right on through until last week, there had been a long, strong decline in daily deaths. As we showed you recently, the numbers were looking like this:
Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling averageDaily deaths were dropping fast, but the rolling average bottomed out last Thursday at 567.1 (June 19-June 25). At least in the immediate short run, this completed a process of long, rapid, steady decline.
May 25-May 31: 915.6
June 1-June 7: 803.4
June 8-June 14: 710.9
June 15-June 21: 585.9
The number has been inching back up since then. As of yesterday, it had moved back up to 583.3 (June 22-June 28).
So far, that isn't a giant increase. But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline.
The Roman Republic was felled by Okmok. All in all, we may not be doing real great ourselves!
Meh. If you look at the 7-day moving average, dear Bob, it's still going down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Here is how Somerby shows the average deaths:
ReplyDeleteDaily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
May 25-May 31: 915.6
June 1-June 7: 803.4
June 8-June 14: 710.9
June 15-June 21: 585.9
Then he talks about the two most recent weeks with deaths edging up. That is cooking the books. He shows the data that proves his contention that there had been a decline in his table, but not the two that contradict it.
If you are presenting data in a table or graph, you show all of your data. You don't leave out the numbers that don't show the pattern you are claiming was occurring.
It should look like this:
Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
May 25-May 31: 915.6
June 1-June 7: 803.4
June 8-June 14: 710.9
June 15-June 21: 585.9
June 22-June 28: 583.3
Creating that artificial "week" out of June 19-25 is inappropriate. It is an example of what researchers are NOT supposed to do, massaging their presentation of their data to fit their conclusions.
As much as Somerby likes to talk about critical thinking and cooking the books, he doesn't seem to understand how to present results professionally, in a manner that doesn't lead the reader to draw a desired conclusion. If there is a different conclusion to be drawn, an alternative interpretation, it is important that readers be able to see it so that it can be considered.
Somerby doesn't know this, of course, because he never took a research methods or stats class that would have taught him this stuff.
Then he says: "So far, that isn't a giant increase. But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline."
How would you know whether that statement is true or not if you play around with the bin sizes?
For all Somerby knows there may have been small up and down fluctuations in all of the weeks formed by selecting different dates. He has two choices: (1) show all days instead of grouping by weeeks, (2) graph the data continuously, not grouped, so you can see the bumps. He claims it has declined rapidly and continuously, but you don't know that. If he wants to claim there was a low point mid-week for one week, why not any of the others? And without another week of data, how do we know it is on its way up rather than simply fluctuating?
DeleteSomerby is a clown. Deaths lag new cases by a couple weeks. Deaths edged up? It went from 366 to 764.
Delete“But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline.”
ReplyDeleteDeaths are important, but so are hospitalizations, which are rising rapidly in several states. In some states, hospitals are near or at capacity.
People who don’t die can still suffer permanent damage.
Number of cases is also important. The continued high number is the reason the EU has barred travel from the US. People who have the virus can infect others.
That is why death rate alone isn’t the only statistic worth noting. Nor is it the only way to decide if the US has been successful at containing the outbreak, although it has been the favored pro-Trump statistic lately.
When the hospitals become full, more people (with and without the virus) will start dying because they don't have access to necessary medical treatments and the death rate will increase (not simply the average number of deaths).
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