Statistics can be unbelievably hard!

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2023

How many non-"whites" in the Senate? The Washington Post's Dan Balz has had a long and extremely sane journalistic career.

We met him once, up in New Hampshire, during the week of the 2000 primary. We were introduced by Mary Matalin as part of an impossibly chic Manchester, New Hampshire bar scene.

Balz quickly expressed a bit of annoyance with the Daily Howler. "We don't think we've ever criticized you," we quickly and skillfully said.

The scribe acknowledged the truth of that statement. Later, we occasionally did criticize some of his work, but the incidences have been few and far between.

As of this morning, Balz and two colleagues have offered a weirdly complex analysis of who does and doesn't get represented in the United States Senate. The lengthy "Imperfect Union" piece appears beneath these dual headlines:

The hidden biases at play in the U.S. Senate
People of color get significantly less representation than White voters. And that’s not the only way the Senate is skewed.

The essay starts by noting one well-known way that the U.S. Senate is "skewed." We refer to the way the very small (population) states get the same two (2) senators that the very big states do.

California gets two U.S. senators, and so does Wyoming! Given current geographic demography—at present, the smaller states tend to be red—this gives the Republican Party a major advantage in the biannual search for control of the Senate.

This fact has become fairly well known within the blue tribe world over the past twenty years. We were puzzled when Balz et al. moved on to a second topic—the topic of representation in the Senate on the basis of race.

Statistics can be hard! We were puzzled, in several ways, just when we came upon this:

BALZ ET AL (11/17/23): America was hardly a diverse nation when it was founded in the late 18th century, certainly not in the way we think of it today. According to the 1790 census, the population numbered 3.9 million people, 81 percent of them White. Enslaved Blacks counted as only three-fifths of a citizen and had no right to vote. Women could not vote. Indigenous people at the time lived as semi-independent nations.

We were struck by the various ways that presentation was fuzzy. Consider:

In 1790, the population was 3.9 million people, 81 percent of whom were white. Presumably, that means that 19 percent of the population wasn't white.

That said:

Were native Americans ("indigenous people") counted in that 3.9 million and in that 19 percent? It sounds like they weren't, but the presentation isn't completely clear on that point.

Meanwhile, how about "enslaved Blacks?" Presumably, they were included in that 3.9 million, and in that 19 percent. But were they counted as whole people, or (imaginably) only as three-fifths? 

It seemed to us that that presentation was unnecessarily fuzzy. That said, we were completely baffled by the presentation which came next:

BALZ ET AL (continuing directly): Today, in a country of more than 330 million people, Whites, at 59 percent, remain in the majority. But the demographic composition of the country is changing, with non-White groups growing faster than the White population. By 2044, according to estimates, America will be a majority-minority nation.

And the most populous states, with few exceptions, also happen to be the most diverse. California is 40 percent Hispanic, 34 percent White, 16 percent Asian and 6.5 percent Black, according to the 2020 census. Wyoming is 83 percent White. This racial disparity between the most and least populous states has created a dramatic imbalance in terms of who is represented in the Senate.

White Americans are significantly overrepresented in the Senate today—by 14 percent, according to The Post’s analysis. An examination of the nation’s most and least populous states helps explain why: Whites make up 46 percent of the population of the five most populous states, but they account for 78 percent of the population of the five least populous states. Similarly, Hispanics make up 31 percent of the population in the five most populous states but 5 percent in the five least populous states.

We haven't made any deletions. Here's what we don't get:

According to that passage, "white" Americans are currently 59 percent of the population. That said, such people are "significantly overrepresented in the Senate today—by 14 percent."

We have no idea what that means. In the most simple-minded sense, it would seem to mean that 73 percent of the Senate is white, with 27 percent non-white.

Plainly, that would seem to be wildly inaccurate. In February 2021, Axios counted eleven non-white members of the Senate. Scrolling through the list of current members, that number seems unchanged today.

(For whatever it may be worth, it's possible that some Hispanic members of the Senate may also identify as white.)

Over-representation of the small population states is a major element in present-day Senate politics. It also might be interesting to examine the under-representation of various racial and ethnic groups within the modern-day Senate.

That said, Balz and his colleagues ran these topics together in a fairly bewildering, highly complicated report. Most strikingly, what did they mean when they said that white people are over-represented in the Senate by 14 percent?

We don't have the slightest idea—and no, we don't see where they explain the claim. Even at the top of the mainstream press corps, statistics can be very hard!

As best we can tell—and employing the standard demographic categories—white Americans are 59 percent of the population, but 89 percent of the Senate. 

What did the journalists mean by their alternate claim? Go ahead—be our guest! Maybe you'll be able to puzzle it out!

(For the record, Dan Balz has had a long and very sane career. The Granite State primary to which we've referred was won by Candidates Gore and McCain.)

51 comments:

  1. Jeet Heer looks at propaganda:

    https://www.thenation.com/article/world/israel-gaza-propaganda-biden/

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  2. Liberal race-mongering is nauseating.

    You know who is underrepresented, to the point of not being represented at all? The working people.

    According to
    https://ballotpedia.org/Net_worth_of_United_States_Senators_and_Representatives
    average net worth of a senator in 2011 was $14,013,596. Today, it's probably more like $20 mil.

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  3. Non whites are severely oppressed in America, in a way that massively privileges Whites; you do not need to look at the incidental makeup of the Senate, just look at any and every societal metric of consequence.

    Ignoring the extent of racism is morally repugnant.

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    Replies
    1. How are they "severely oppressed?" identity politics off the rails.

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    2. AC/MA you have seen the statistics for income, health care, schooling, residence, crime, and yes, election to office, for racial minorities compared to white people in our society. Somerby keeps giving us the stats for black participation in those elite NYC high schools, and complaining because they might have to let more black students attend them.

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    3. I've checked, and I've seen numbers showing that blacks have 15% the wealth of whites, and I'll assume for the sake of argument this figure is correct. this is probably some evidence of "racism." But I think you are simplistic. There are loads of poor whites? are they poor because they are white? They say the 1% control 30 percent of the country's wealth (or something like that). I would assume that most of the 1% are white, so that could account for some of the disparity. How many blacks babies are born into 2 parent families? Jews, say, apparently have more wealth on average than whites? why is that? some type of racism. It's very complicated, and the current narrative, systemic racism, white privilege, white supremacy etc. etc.is simplistic and propagandistic. Crime - blacks commit disproportionately more than other categories. Shouldn't "blacks" have some agency? Health care - I would assume disparities are largely due to wealth and education, not race. I think there is less racism now than there used to be. There is racism (like there is lying, stealing, cheating, robberies, assaults, murders, drug addiction, etc), and stereotyping, and subconscious attitudes, but the current lib obsession exaggerates all this racism, almost like in the 50's when there was this big communist threat.

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    4. AC/ MA,
      They bitched about the red-lining and lynchings even after slavery was abolished. You can't please some people.

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    5. Not "they". You're bitching, cracka.

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  4. The idea that people are represented by Senators of the same race is a racist concept.

    Legally, my two Senators represent me, regardless of their race. Politically, neither Senator particularly represents my views. Again, race has nothing to do with this point. If Thomas Sowell were my Senator, he would represent my views pretty well.

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    1. And no one said that people must be represented only by Senators of the same race.

      But you continue, David, to illustrate the kind of discourse that Somerby has railed against for years: the automatic hurling of epithets. Today, you hurl “racist” and yesterday it was “antisemite.”

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    2. David in Cal, well said.

      When it's not about Zionist shit, you often appear to be thoughtful and rational.

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    3. 5:48, bullshit. David is a passive aggressive magat troll

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    4. David is not a troll.

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  5. Kevin looks at the candidates:

    https://jabberwocking.com/choose-a-real-president-or-a-high-octane-fake/

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  6. Race is a social construct that largely emerged from the desire to use people from the west coast of Africa as a source of free labor.

    These people, let’s call them slaves, were housed and fed, so what’s the big complaint? Some say, they were routinely beaten and raped and stripped of any human rights and dignity.

    Their descendants are no longer slaves, but are still victims of racism; for example, the average Black has only 15 cents to the average White’s dollar. Oof.

    Chattel slavery ended, after Lincoln brutally stomped the South, giving no mercy to the slavers and the culture that supported them. He was shot in the head, Reconstruction was dropped, and now most of us live as wage slaves; not comparable to chattel slavery, but still induces its own misery.

    Race is a function of racism.

    No racism, no race.

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    Replies
    1. No women, no male chauvinists.

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    2. I haven’t heard about male chauvinists lately. The trendy term is misogynist.

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    3. Jordan Peterson slipped up in an interview once and absentmindedly spoke some truth, explaining that gender is largely a social designation and that there are as many genders as there are people; however, one can not easily monetize a take like that, so he quickly reverted to his typical nonsense, claiming victimhood at the hands of those less close minded - “How do I know how to act if I don’t know the gender of whom I’m interacting with” he hilariously exclaimed, ie ‘what if I’m turned on by a beautiful woman that has a penis.’

      As oppressions like sexism, misogyny, homophobia, and transphobia fade, so will concern about gender.

      Having said that, gender is not directly analogous to race, so one suggesting such is merely ignorant.

      Women are a gender, males are a sex; they are different.

      Chauvinism exists regardless of gender or sex, ironically, the word has more than one meaning.

      People want freedom and equality, the freedom to identify however they feel, and to be treated equally regardless of their identity, not to be boxed in by others with their tragic and toxic hangups.

      Right wingers, definitionally, are obsessed with dominance, and thus are on the prowl for a cohort that can be marginalized, providing a hierarchical boost up in our current dog eat dog shithole of a society.

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    4. Misogynist refers to someone who supports a system and institutions that favor men over women. Sexist refers to someone who treats women badly because of their gender.

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    5. There are three genders: masculine, feminine, neuter — he, she, it.

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    6. The important thing about dogs is — do they bite people?

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    7. The idea that someone must know the sex of another person by looking (or name) makes no sense because most interactions have nothing to do with sex, nor should they.

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    8. Anonymouse 9:22pm, among a multitude of genders, what specific one has a uterus?

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    9. Cecelia, if it has a uterus it's a mammal.

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    10. Anonymouse 7:20pm, so men aren’t mammals?

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    11. I didn’t say, “If it’s a mammal it has a uterus.” I said, “If it has a uterus it’s a mammal.” You see the difference? If not, ask David, who is a mammal but has no uterus.

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    12. Anonymouse 10:44am, I see that uteruses denote more than the class of mammal.

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    13. Uteruses that believe that they are bollocks are testicles.

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    14. Or is the opposite? If they believe they're testicles it's bollocks?

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    15. Other people's genitalia are none of your business, Cecelia.

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    16. The male homolog of the uterus is the prostate.

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    17. Anonymouse women and men, it’s time for your yearly prostate exam.

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  7. The latest Rasmussen poll, which tends to favor Republicans since it’s a right wing partisan entity, has Biden +4, which is a significant shift from their June 2023 that had Trump +6.

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    Replies
    1. Here's my conspiracy theory, based on my observations:

      Those who favor Republicans want the veg to run in 2024. So they tend to produce veg-positive polls.

      Those who favor Democrats tend to do the opposite.

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    2. Republicans routinely lie.

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    3. Everyone routinely lies. But Democrats are also routinely dumb.

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    4. I don’t routinely lie.

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    5. Acceptance is the first step.

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    6. I am Corby. No lie.

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    7. Wikipedia is my Bible.

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    8. "But Democrats are also routinely dumb."

      Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.

      "It's not that easy. There were other questions tougher than what I just did."

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  8. Well known Black Republican Michael Steele, did a recent interview with historian/public intellectual Heather Cox Richardson.

    They had a somewhat interesting discussion.

    Michael Steele seems like a nice person and seems to engage in good faith.

    He is Black and a Republican, although not mentioned much here.

    https://youtu.be/mj2Gf67eZbs?si=09CCbCiXMS9Fdmfl

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    Replies
    1. Race is a social construct. There are no Black people.

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  9. Somerby's main complaint is that the statistics are not explained well. There is no way you can manipulate the stats and come up with a different conclusion, that minorities are not underrepresented in the Senate. Most people will not care to follow the intricacies of the statistical computations. But the conclusion drawn is important and Somerby's nitpicky focus on the mechanics means that he ignores entirely the conclusion about the lack of representation for minorities in our increasingly diverse nation.

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  10. Max Blumenthal tells Chris Hedges about October 7:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0gECjlpXF8

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  11. Operation 24:

    Recruit Fanny Passmore-Gass, civilian.

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  12. Palestine in 1896:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vaIK8wlAl0

    ReplyDelete
  13. Holy shit, did everyone see what Hillary Clinton said now?
    She lamented that American culture was “so dark and depraved it almost seems irredeemable,”!!
    Holy shit, I look forward to TDH writing about this for the next 6 years explaining how dumb and insulting that was to the American people.

    Oh, never mind, that wasn't Hillary, that was Maga Johnson, the new republican Speaker of the House. Nothing to see here, move along everyone.

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