Biden leads Trump, Quinnipiac says!

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Also, NATO spending numbers: On the one hand, hallelujah! Then again, not so fast!

A brand-new Quinnipiac poll has Biden ahead of Trump by four points nationwide. On the other hand, a brand-new poll by Morning Consult has Trump ahead by four.

Just this once, we'll let you exult. Headline included, here's the start of the Quinnipiac report:

2024 Election: Biden Holds On To Slight Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds

In a hypothetical 2024 general election presidential matchup, President Joe Biden holds a small lead over former President Donald Trump with 49 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 45 percent supporting Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters released today.

This compares to Quinnipiac University's January 31 poll when Biden had 50 percent support and Trump had 44 percent support.

In today's poll, Democrats support Biden (93 - 4 percent), while Republicans support Trump (91 - 7 percent). Independents are divided, with 44 percent supporting Biden and 42 percent supporting Trump.

The report proceeds from there. Recent impressions:

On Tuesday night, we watched a chunk of Donald J. Trump's town hall event with Laura Ingraham. We were surprised, as we were in his last town hall event, by how cool, calm and collected the candidate managed to be.

The man who sends those all-caps tweets at 2 a.m. doesn't seem to show up for these events. He makes all the ridiculous claims and adopts all the ridiculous stances, but his demeanor is that of a fairly normal candidate.

With respect to those ridiculous stances, let's review the recent hubbub concerning NATO members. Trump continues to say or suggest that there's some such thing as "NATO dues"—and that he may turn Vladimir loose on countries which are in arrears.

As usual, the factual claims are a jumble. Headline included, here's the start of a February 12 report in the Washington Post:

See which NATO countries spend less than 2% of their GDP on defense

Donald Trump said over the weekend that he would encourage Russia to attack “delinquent” NATO allies that, in his judgment, spend too little on defense.

His remarks shocked leaders on both sides of the Atlantic—and mischaracterized how the 31-member alliance works.

NATO member nations all make payments to cover the operating expenses of the organization, which was founded in the aftermath of World War II to help Western Europe counter the Soviet Union with help from Canada and the United States. But they don’t pay membership fees to remain in the alliance, so there’s no delinquency to speak of.

Countries do, however, commit to spending at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense each year, with the goal of ensuring the alliance’s military readiness and deterring any potential attacks. The commitment is a guideline, not a requirement, that has been in place for nearly two decades.

That's the way the report started. Member nations "commit to spending at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense each year." As he continued, Derek Hawkins offered this overview of who's been keeping up:

Last year, 11 countries met or exceeded that target, according to NATO statistics. The rest spent smaller portions of their GDP on defense. (Iceland, the only member state with no armed forces, is omitted from the data set.)

Most of the countries that spent beyond the 2 percent mark either share a border with Russia or sit near the front lines of the Ukraine war. Trump’s insinuation that they’re not paying their share is false.

Two percent of GDP is the target, goal or commitment. Here are the percentages from 2023 for some of the larger NATO members:

Defense spending in 2023 (as a percentage of GDP):
Poland: 3.9%
United States: 3.49%
United Kingdom: 2.07%
France: 1.90%
Germany: 1.57%
Italy: 1.46%
Canada: 1.38%
Spain: 1.26%

The U.K. is slightly over the two percent target. France is slightly below it. 

Some other countries aren't all that close. This report from Forces.net offers an upbeat projection:

Nato: Which countries are paying their fair share on defence?

A record number of Nato nations are set to meet or exceed the alliance's spending target, but other members are still falling short.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said 18 nations were expected to spend 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in 2024—up from 11 in 2023 and a six-fold increase from 2014 when only three Nato allies hit the spending target.

The expected increase in defense spending also means European Nato allies as a whole will collectively spend 2% of their combined GDP—worth $380bn—on defense for the first time.

[...]

The latest increases follow a trend of gradual increases in defense spending across the alliance over the last decade—Nato allies in Europe invested only 1.47% of their collective GDP in defense in 2014.

We don't know who will spend how much. Later, we'll try to get with Calchas.

Blue tribe viewers are told that Donald J. Trump is nuts. Red tribe viewers are told that his tough talk about turning Vladimir loose is the perfect way to get recalcitrant NATO members to build their capacities up.

Quinnipiac says that Biden's ahead (though certainly not by enough). We're still focused on this question:

How vigorously will he campaign?


36 comments:

  1. We can decide which tribe has the more accurate interpretation of Trump’s words by what events his words lead to. So far Trump’s words did lead to increased military spending by some in NATO members. OTOH his words have not led to Russia attacking a NATO country. So far. Such an attack certainly could still take place. Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OTOH, Trump’s words and actions led to women losing their reproductive (healthcare) rights, which you used to pretend you supported.

      Delete
    2. The war machine is going to get paid whether or not alcoholic dads playing fantasy sports with fatalities data cheer them on or not.

      Delete
    3. Trump's words are actually leading to loss of confidence in the US to honor its solemn Treaty obligations, and hence a weaker, not stronger, Nato alliance.

      Conservatives are always falling in love with the Fuhrer, the leader who accomplish all their wet dreams thru his force of will. You're an ass, David.

      Delete
    4. Dave In Cal, Putin's genocidal Ukranian war and promise to keep warring after he takes Ukraine is the direct cause of increased NATO spending. Trump again bowing down to Putin, again slamming NATO, and Congressional leadership using a Russian spy to impeach Biden is just a sign that many in your party's leadership are being blackmailed by Russian intelligence. Trump and Johnson killing US aid to Ukraine is another gift to Putin. Your party is nothing but insurrectionists and traitors to Putin. Sick fuck all.

      Delete
  2. Is that you, Donald?

    ReplyDelete
  3. You may be overly generous, calling Somerby “ignorant.”

    ReplyDelete
  4. Roeland Nolte has died.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Somerby seems to think that Biden is alone on the campaign trail. He has help. My question is how vigorously Somerby will support Biden. He wrote today’s essay solely to knock Biden and portray Trump more positively than he deserves. Today’s post is not about NATO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Biden has raised more campaign money than any president in history (at this point in a campaign). That will enable a vigorous campaign.

      Delete
  6. Somerby gushes, swoons, and blushes for his big strong man, Trump, but it is yet another load of poop, similar to what Trump walks around with in his diaper, spreading his Trump Stench.

    In reality, Trump in the interview said one lunatic thing after another, for example, he said he’ll be bringing big crime to DC, and made a vague, scary reference to a nuclear bomb with a 1400 mile blast radius - he wasn’t clear who owned this bomb or would be using it on the US, but either way, no such bomb exists.

    Trump has made it clear he does not understand how NATO works, he wrongly thinks there is a fund that countries pay into. That aside, Somerby plays the fool, as Trump’s coffee boy, apparently unaware that one of Russia’s main industries and leverage for power is producing weapons to sell to these countries.

    OTOH Biden has exposed Putin as a toothless pussy, strengthened our alliances, and increased the strength of NATO, this is in stark contrast to Trump, who ran around as Putin’s puppet, doing his every bidding, while weakening our standing in the world, making a mockery of America while lining his pockets with cash from China and Saudi Arabia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you aware that Trump presided over two rounds of NATO expansion?

      Delete
    2. "In addition to endorsing NATO enlargement, the Trump administration has approved the participation of U.S. forces in alliance military exercises (war games) in Eastern Europe, including Poland and other member states, as well as naval maneuvers in the Black Sea near Russia’s naval base at Sevastopol. Washington has even sent U.S. troops as participants in NATO’s joint military exercises with Ukrainian forces — an act that Moscow considers especially provocative, given its tense relations with Kiev."

      Delete
    3. The Trump administration’s military collaboration with Ukraine is not confined to involvement in such exercises. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis acknowledges that U.S. instructors are busy training Ukrainian military units at a base in western Ukraine. Perhaps even more provocative, Washington has approved two major arms sales to Kiev in just the past eight months. The first transaction in December 2017 involved only $41.5 million in small arms that at least could be portrayed as purely defensive weapons.

      Delete
    4. Isn't that weird?

      Delete
    5. Hey 8:37. Welcome to "You're Wrong Night."

      It's going to be a long night for you.

      Delete
    6. Sure. Trump has really got Putin right where he wants him.

      Delete
    7. Trump having Putin right where he wants him isn't what's under discussion, my fair darling.

      Delete
    8. On two separate occasions, the president ordered large‐​scale expulsions of Russian diplomats stationed in the United States. In August 2017, the administration closed three Russian diplomatic facilities after Russia ousted several hundred U.S. diplomats in response to Congress imposing new economic sanctions. The following May, the White House expelled 60 diplomats and ordered the Seattle consulate closed as punishment for the Kremlin’s alleged involvement in two nerve‐​agent poisoning incidents in Britain.

      Delete
    9. Sweet thing, backing up for a minute, are you aware that Trump presided over two rounds of NATO expansion? 💖

      Delete
    10. Let's discuss it together.

      Delete
    11. Being overly familiar in order to patronize others is a dick move.

      Delete
    12. "Trump privately complained about US sanctions intended to punish Russia after one of its ex-spies was poisoned in the United Kingdom, according to Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton. The US and UK blamed Russia for trying to assassinate the defector, Sergei Skripal. After the sanctions were announced in August 2018, Trump tried to rescind them and said the US was “being too tough on Putin,” according to Bolton’s memoir."

      https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-soft-on-russia/index.html

      Delete
    13. In case anyone was wondering what neoliberals are, just read this comment about pooping politicians that's trying to sound cool

      Delete
    14. Just imagine how strong NATO must be now that Trump has publicly invited Putin to attack them. It’s magical, his negotiating skills. Just think how strong they will become when he refuses to honor the treaty.

      Delete
    15. But madame, are you aware of that Trump presided over two rounds of NATO expansion? That's all we should focus on tonight. 💖

      Delete
    16. Let's just start there and work our way up to, you know, bigger stuff. We'll start slow and just let it slowly build and build and build. Together.

      Delete
    17. Or we can start slow with John Bolton's credibility is that makes you more comfortable.

      Delete
    18. 💘💘💘💘💘
      💘💘💘💘💘💘💘
      💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘

      Dec. 23, 2021

      "Putin says Russia doesn't want war with Ukraine but urges West to meet his demands quickly"

      Putin said it was up to the U.S. and NATO to swiftly provide the security guarantees Moscow demanded last week, although he insisted he doesn't want an armed conflict.

      “The ball is in their court,” Putin told more than 500 Russian and foreign reporters at the marathon event.

      💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘💘
      💘💘💘💘💘💘💘
      💘💘💘💘💘

      Delete
    19. 🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️Putin sounded optimistic about the response to the security demands the Kremlin issued last week, which called for NATO to halt its eastward expansion, as well as for legally binding security guarantees that certain offensive weapons won’t be deployed to Russia's neighboring countries.🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️🤷🏼‍♀️

      Delete
    20. Let's meet at midnight tonight.

      Delete
    21. Untold rewards await.

      Delete
  7. Donald Trump is nuts, just ask his niece who is a therapist..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She is a PhD licensed clinical psychologist, not a therapist. That means she diagnoses and treats mental illness. A therapist counsels people in bad marriages.

      Delete