tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post4416940147341977532..comments2024-03-29T00:25:24.008-04:00Comments on the daily howler: Krugman dreams of a better day!<b>bob somerby</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/02963464534685954436noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-58276747895952043142017-06-19T02:05:57.905-04:002017-06-19T02:05:57.905-04:00Hello all,
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I don't know whether to laugh or cry....DAinCA,<br /><br />I don't know whether to laugh or cry.<br /><br />1. Your second source gives annual growth rates. Almost completely meaningless. In 1950, the GDP grew by 18.19%. Great, right? No, in 1949 the economy contracted by 3.46%. You have to look at a longer-term trend.<br /><br />2. Your second source gives the growth rates measured against current dollars. Again, meaningless. You have to look at constant dollars.<br /><br />In your two-decades of the Golden Age of Cherry-picked Data, 1947-1967, the GDP did a bit better than doubled. In the 45 years afterwards, the GDP did better than 2.5 times. I'll let you calculate the slopes of the lines.<br /><br />3. GDP by itself doesn't tell all that much. As the population grows, you expect the GDP in relatively good times to grow. You have to look at GDP per capita, and the slope of that line is remarkably constant since 1947.deadratnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-36285941796099144052013-12-08T10:59:40.129-05:002013-12-08T10:59:40.129-05:00deadrat, you make some good points. However, I me...deadrat, you make some good points. However, I meant to address long-term spending. E.g., see http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/government-spending-as-percentage-of-gdp.html<br />Back in the period 1947 -1967, federal spending was much lower than in recent decades, and growth of GDP was much faster. See http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-yearDavid in Calnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-10134016024773617912013-12-08T02:37:56.493-05:002013-12-08T02:37:56.493-05:00But none of this actually obtains. During recessi...But none of this actually obtains. During recessions, federal spending as a percentage of the GPD goes up. In 1983 it was 24%, going down thereafter and bouncing around between 21% and 23% for a decade. During the boom times of the Clinton years, the percentage dipped as low as 19%. After the 2008 crash, the percentage went to 25% and is now down to a bit over 21%, the average of the years 1973 to 2012.<br /><br />There's no data that supports your contention that high government spending is necessarily a drag on business. It doesn't necessarily mean higher taxes on business, and as the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero, private borrowing isn't being crowded out.<br />deadratnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-71891690764128533292013-12-07T21:40:02.520-05:002013-12-07T21:40:02.520-05:00High government spending relative to the unemploym...<i>High government spending relative to the unemployment and wage deflation which anti-cyclical policy would remedy is useful and good.</i><br /><br />I agree that's sometimes the case, depending on various factors. However, I meant <i>permanent</i> high government spending. High government spending is a drag on business. It means higher taxes on business and often means government borrowing that tends to crowd out private borrowing.David in Calnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-41212665754721563482013-12-07T17:05:12.824-05:002013-12-07T17:05:12.824-05:00McDonough's piece was entirely factual - there...McDonough's piece was entirely factual - there was really no attempt at analysis. She was not there and apparently did not interview anyone (or if she did the video, she doesn't seem to appear in it), so no, she does not "know" what happened except from what she got from others. Why criticize her for this? Of course commenters know exactly what happened and why, but is Bob going to get after the commenters on every blog post?skeptonomistnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-22542868077668404882013-12-06T23:58:46.590-05:002013-12-06T23:58:46.590-05:00These four are not related in the way that you and...These four are not related in the way that you and Robert Barro believe them to be.<br /><br />High government spending relative to the unemployment and wage deflation which anti-cyclical policy would remedy is useful and good.<br /><br />Unemployment and stagnating wages are not generally exacerbated by high government spending, unless you're a right- or center-leaning economist.stuart_zechmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817215761981204304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-48835838549172328542013-12-06T16:25:48.173-05:002013-12-06T16:25:48.173-05:00In addition, even a cursory review of polling data...In addition, even a cursory review of polling data reveals that much of the US population embraces social-democratic policy that either closes the income gap, or at least amerliorates it. Large majorities favor taxing the wealthy. And our most social democratic cohort of all may be the Tea Partiers, 70% of whom, in repeated polling, don't want Medicare touched.Chomskyzinnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-13571217166912952802013-12-06T16:22:52.075-05:002013-12-06T16:22:52.075-05:00"The powerful interests which pushed their id..."The powerful interests which pushed their ideas have been doing so for decades. For most of that time, the liberal world pretty much stared off into air."<br /><br />Actually, no, liberals triangulated and adopted plutocratic notions as their own: NAFTA, welfare "reform," a draconian crime bill, while pursuing great liberal achievements such as school uniforms. What's changing is the demographics of the populace, and the pain people are feeling from the effects of income inequality. The population is waking up. They won't be lulled by triangulating liberals anymore.Chomskyzinnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-42006111604630608002013-12-06T15:32:02.334-05:002013-12-06T15:32:02.334-05:00Funny and apt response.Funny and apt response.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-82706038919451630342013-12-06T15:02:55.845-05:002013-12-06T15:02:55.845-05:00Obama's comments are meaningless now. When he...Obama's comments are meaningless now. When he was first elected and had all of the political muscle, he could have tried to do something about this inequality. He didn't even try; he worked as hard as he could to give the repugs the keys to controlling legislation by being all "bipartisany." After using all of his power to enrich the 1% even more, now he will mention the current reality. His involvement will go no further.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-34923386402393941912013-12-06T13:46:42.381-05:002013-12-06T13:46:42.381-05:00Please develop the appropriate model for this talk...Please develop the appropriate model for this talking point derived from Fox News, with the following items:<br />appropriate explanatory notes<br />model outcomes proving this is true<br />preferably some real life examples as backup so that it isn't a PDOOMA<br />the appropriate Nobel Prize(s) recognizing your achievementsCarol Annhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12123896090649532723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-37691275729635947952013-12-06T13:46:13.645-05:002013-12-06T13:46:13.645-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Carol Annhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12123896090649532723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-48117553744148725822013-12-06T13:39:37.157-05:002013-12-06T13:39:37.157-05:00Krugman pretends that debt and deficit are indepen...Krugman pretends that debt and deficit are independent from unemployment and stagnating wages. These four problems are related. All four are exacerbated by high government spending.David in Calnoreply@blogger.com