tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post515190517534948795..comments2024-03-29T06:09:09.845-04:00Comments on the daily howler: What won't the Hamptons-based New York Times publish?<b>bob somerby</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/02963464534685954436noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-12028766690411621542021-07-28T00:37:28.097-04:002021-07-28T00:37:28.097-04:00LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
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Do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster Dr.Unity now. Here’s his contact,<br /><br />Email him at: Unityspelltemple@gmail.com ,<br />Call/WhatsApp him: +2348055361568, <br />Check is website:https://unityspelltemples.blogspot.com ,<br />your kindness will never be forgotten.Tracy Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15301660925284476826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-27585285055483460852019-06-01T12:33:06.379-04:002019-06-01T12:33:06.379-04:00some of your numbers do seem slightly off, but who...<i>some of your numbers do seem slightly off, but who cares</i><br /><br />I do. And so would anyone interested in the accuracy of their statements.<br /><br /><i>the survey was not intended to look at representing all black voters</i><br /><br />Then perhaps Garza should stop making false statements about the black electorate.<br /><br /><i>and it certainly resembles a subset of black voters who voted in past elections</i><br /><br />This is trivially true. All you have to do is pick your “subset” of black voters to match the characteristics of your sample.<br /><br /><i> i.e.</i><br /><br />You either don’t understand what <i>id est</i> means or you don’t understand the vacuity of your “subset” statement.<br /><br /><i>you are not necessarily wrong so much as you make no meaningful point.</i><br /><br />Your intellectual dishonesty is breathtaking.<br /><br /><i>Whites have been using identity politics forever, illegitimately, most likely. I suppose that is disturbing; however, other groups engaging in identity politics … reasonable and effective.</i><br /><br />Illegitimately? You mean like “Segregation today, segregation tomorrow; segregation forever”? What do you “suppose” about that? But it’s OK for “other groups” as long as you approve of their goals, right? Four legs good; two legs bad.<br /><br />Your intellectual laziness is breathtaking.<br /><br /><i>Somerby's analysis is constrained by misguided notions about converting Trump voters and the actions of those that perpetrate violence against black people, such as Zimmerman - someone who is truly deplorable.</i><br /><br />Somerby’s “analysis” of Zimmerman’s shooting of Martin is based on what we know of the incident and the state of Florida law. That Ziimmerman seems like a deplorable person is immaterial. I’m not sure why you’ve introduced Zimmerman into a discussion of Garza’s survey, but if you’d like to try going ten rounds on the matter, I’ll oblige. You won’t last one, mostly because I’ve acquainted myself with the law and acquaintance with facts seems something foreign to you.<br /><br />~~~~~~~~<br /><br />By the say, I’m just messin’ with you about my breath being taken away. I’m no longer surprised by anything said by members of the Anonymi Ignorami.<br />deadrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02828198094140822987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-3831361556449605662019-06-01T09:49:16.341-04:002019-06-01T09:49:16.341-04:00That one would find innocent trivial errors amusin...That one would find innocent trivial errors amusing, and that one would want to share that insight into their character, is amusing in and of itself, but likely only to those who share similar values to those that such a person would possess, or perhaps they are possessed by. Clearly, such individuals are medicating a severe wound in a manner that makes any attempt of rescue fail, as amusement is a heavy anchor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-59750009280930718312019-06-01T09:23:10.601-04:002019-06-01T09:23:10.601-04:002:02, some of your numbers do seem slightly off, b...2:02, some of your numbers do seem slightly off, but who cares, the survey was not intended to look at representing all black voters, and it certainly resembles a subset of black voters who voted in past elections; i.e. you are not necessarily wrong so much as you make no meaningful point.<br /><br /><br />Whites have been using identity politics forever, illegitimately, most likely. I suppose that is disturbing; however, other groups engaging in identity politics due to actual issues like racism and prejudice leading to inequality seems reasonable and effective.<br /><br /><br />Somerby seems to occasionally quote out of context to push his particular narrative of the day. Additionally, it seems like Somerby's analysis is constrained by misguided notions about converting Trump voters and the actions of those that perpetrate violence against black people, such as Zimmerman - someone who is truly deplorable.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-44949868868266740012019-05-31T20:03:26.761-04:002019-05-31T20:03:26.761-04:008:47, I owe you an apology, I think, for my knee-j...8:47, I owe you an apology, I think, for my knee-jerk reaction to your reply. Because you told me some things I didn't know re: sampling in regards to how studies are constructed in attempting to create an honest sample of segment of the electorate. Thanks for the tips. I had no idea that a hypothetical model is first assembled, and then sampling is engineered to prove – or I assume, disprove – the model. I can see where this might work in, say, assessing climate change, but I hadn’t considered it as a reliable means of assessing a subgroup of society.<br /><br />Apparently these are successful modeling techniques, otherwise they wouldn’t' be in use. But I find it discouraging that these models are used by the political class to inform their messaging. I suppose this might fall under the rubric of “identity politics,” and is itself a disturbing phenomenon, as Garza mentioned citing chicken eatin’ photo ops.<br /> My particular sin here, if you could call it that, is that I didn’t read Garza’s article. Might have helped!<br /><br />Leroy<br /><br />Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021120389394278239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-65185525169601863482019-05-31T14:04:18.158-04:002019-05-31T14:04:18.158-04:00Er, Sparky? It wasn't a serious comment on arg...Er, Sparky? It wasn't a serious comment on argument. I just found the phrasing amusing.deadrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02828198094140822987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-7351317724354083762019-05-31T14:02:04.099-04:002019-05-31T14:02:04.099-04:00I’ll say it again: it’s not that my academic backg...I’ll say it again: it’s not that my academic background prevents me from understanding the statistical methods of the survey; it’s that I haven’t examined them. I therefore make make and have expressed no judgment about the matter. Ditto for the usefulness or interest in the survey.<br /><br />I’ve made one observation about a comment that <i>you</i> made.<br /><br /><i>Apparently, it is OK when someone surveys Obama voters who switched to Trump, but not OK to ask a <b>black sample resembling those who voted in a past election</b> what they think about anything.</i> (Emphasis mine.)<br /><br />Given the description of the education level in the sample, it seems for that sample of African-Americans to resemble African-Americans who voted in 2016, more African-Americans with advanced degrees had to have voted than there are African-Americans with advanced degrees.<br /><br />This isn’t a matter of statistics. It’s a matter of taking some data and doing some simple arithmetic.<br /><br />If I’ve got my numbers wrong or if I’ve done the computation wrong, then just tell me where went astray.<br />deadrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02828198094140822987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-3443940801810957762019-05-31T09:45:09.982-04:002019-05-31T09:45:09.982-04:00Polling and sampling theory require some math back...Polling and sampling theory require some math background that you, Somerby and Leroy obviously do not have because if you did, you wouldn't say the stupid stuff you do. This isn't a matter of simple arithmetic. It is true that statistics doesn't require advanced math, but you still have to put in the effort to learn it before pontificating. You are out of your depth, based on your comments, not any particular knowledge about you or your life.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-77223255985577007932019-05-31T09:39:36.831-04:002019-05-31T09:39:36.831-04:00Pick those nits!Pick those nits!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-54348703204587934202019-05-31T07:03:45.020-04:002019-05-31T07:03:45.020-04:00Kevin Drum on the survey:
"if you want to ge...Kevin Drum on the survey:<br /><br />"if you want to get an idea about the priorities of the politically activist segment of the African American population, it’s probably a good place to start"<br /><br />One person suggests Somerby's criticism is misplaced because the survey was intentionally biased.<br /><br />Others chime in to essentially reiterate Somerby's post, ignoring that the first person acknowledges that the survey provides information on a population that resembles a subset of black voters.<br /><br />Whatever!<br /><br />Notably, the 2016 black voter rate was only lower than the elevated rates of the Obama elections, but was the same as 2004 and continued the trend of increasing black voter rate over time.<br /><br />Interestingly, black voters with college degrees vote slightly more Republican than those without college degrees.<br /><br />Some say college degrees merely give the illusion of greater cognitive abilities.<br /><br />Trump won in 2016 largely due to lower turn out rates for Democratic voters. Converting Trump voters is a silly notion; whatever inspires increased voter turn out for Dems is fine.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-62116736546920512582019-05-31T01:33:53.324-04:002019-05-31T01:33:53.324-04:00"gained 35,000 fewer black votes"
If on..."gained 35,000 fewer black votes"<br /><br />If only I could gain fewer pounds on my diet.deadrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02828198094140822987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-75039494911569744862019-05-31T01:31:22.004-04:002019-05-31T01:31:22.004-04:00I'm am absolutely certain that neither you nor...<i>I'm am absolutely certain that neither you nor Somerby has taken a course on sampling theory (part of any undergrad stats major) but you think your opinion invalidates what this person has done! That is called arrogance.</i><br /><br />Would you call it arrogance to be absolutely certain of things you have no reliable way to know? Like your statement about me. Of course, I can’t prove that because anyone can claim in cyberspace to have an undergraduate and a graduate degree in mathematics, which required passing courses in calculus, real analysis, and statistics and probability.<br /><br />I don’t live in “the weeds of closely examining her model.” I haven’t read her model so I don’t know her statistical methods. I’m not challenging the model and its utility, nor raising quibbles about it.<br /><br />In fact, I was asking about the last statement in your comment which essentially asked why it’s “not OK to ask a black sample resembling those who voted in a past election what they think about anything.”<br /><br />This doesn’t have anything to do with changing proportions, but nice deflection. And it has nothing to do with statistics or Garza. It has to do with simple arithmetic and you.<br />deadrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02828198094140822987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-67112538124175518402019-05-31T01:12:14.993-04:002019-05-31T01:12:14.993-04:00Also, Putin's wishes and Trump's actions.Also, Putin's wishes and Trump's actions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-88510781783087524032019-05-31T01:09:24.722-04:002019-05-31T01:09:24.722-04:00The GOP and the KKK. They're identical.The GOP and the KKK. They're identical.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-62307465428637110402019-05-30T21:25:07.756-04:002019-05-30T21:25:07.756-04:00I ain't holding my breathI ain't holding my breathLeroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021120389394278239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-82403049537773109812019-05-30T21:24:05.283-04:002019-05-30T21:24:05.283-04:00“You may disagree with their model, but the fact t...“You may disagree with their model, but the fact that they oversampled in comparison to the general population or the last election is not an error but a decision they made in conducting their survey.”<br /><br />Duh. But You didn’t answer my question, because I don’t know what “Skewed refers to a distribution that is distorted by extreme values so that the mean is not equal to the median and mode” even means. Though it sounds a lot like what this survey has done, but I plead ignorance. In this case anyway.<br /><br />How can the survey be "scaled up" to reflect the general population? I want to know godammit.<br /><br />I ain’t dissing you, I just want a coherent explanation of your critique.<br /><br />LeroyLeroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021120389394278239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-69209542411950645562019-05-30T21:05:57.006-04:002019-05-30T21:05:57.006-04:00Tell it to the cops.Tell it to the cops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-27809930015048072822019-05-30T20:47:55.821-04:002019-05-30T20:47:55.821-04:00"skewed" has a technical meaning that is..."skewed" has a technical meaning that is different from what you are talking about.<br /><br />You are complaining because she oversampled highly educated people. She explained why she did that. You may disagree with her reasoning, but it was a choice and not a mistake. All political polls oversample and undersample in order to resembled what they expect will be the characteristics of a voting group who has not gone to the polls yet. They create a model of what they expect that group will be like and then sample to fit that model.<br /><br />This study created a model of African American likely voters and they sampled accordingly. You may disagree with their model, but the fact that they oversampled in comparison to the general population or the last election is not an error but a decision they made in conducting their survey. If you want to disagree, offer some reasons for taking issue with it. But it is not a matter of accuracy because it is a hypothetical population being discussed. <br /><br />How can deadrat or Somerby say that 20% of those who vote in the next election won't have higher degrees if that event hasn't happened yet? Theirs is a guess as much as this survey's was, but the survey creators arguable know the group they are polling better than Somerby does. And since he is far from am expert in this stuff, he should have more humility about it.<br /><br />Skewed refers to a distribution that is distorted by extreme values so that the mean is not equal to the median and mode. A skewed distribution is not distributed symmetrically around the mean. Skew has nothing to do with oversampling based on some characteristic of your informants. That is part of sampling. You would refer to a sample that is different from the population as "biased," if it is selected in some manner that results in measurement differences from the population.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-39959293708448116092019-05-30T20:19:00.364-04:002019-05-30T20:19:00.364-04:004:42 PM,
Kudos for taking only four lines to offe...4:42 PM,<br /><br />Kudos for taking only four lines to offer nothing useful. A couple of the anonymi around here go on for paragraph after whiny paragraph to do that.CMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13481861530761114492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-82489409196253061132019-05-30T20:05:56.631-04:002019-05-30T20:05:56.631-04:00Okay. But if about 20% of the sample group have hi...Okay. But if about 20% of the sample group have higher degrees, doesn't that count as an anomaly? That doesn’t even count the fact that Garza admitted that she intentionally “oversampled” other certain indicators of the people included in the survey.<br /><br />How is that not skewed?<br /><br />Leroy <br />Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021120389394278239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-56784875843881737992019-05-30T19:39:02.607-04:002019-05-30T19:39:02.607-04:00You don't know what the word "skewed"...You don't know what the word "skewed" means.<br /><br />My point has been that it is unreasonable for someone to expect to be a statistician and polling expert without the training involved. Somerby doesn't know what he is talking about, neither does Drum (as often as not) and neither does deadrat.<br /><br />But they don't actually care about the statistics issues. Somerby himself says that he dislikes slicing people up into demographic groups, so he doesn't like it that this person is actually studying how black voters think. We shouldn't care about black voters distinct from white voters because we are all human, so we should ignore all differences and treat everyone as if they are all white, as we have been doing for a long time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8611810694571930415.post-52980980190652534362019-05-30T19:09:41.427-04:002019-05-30T19:09:41.427-04:00“I'm not going to be dragged into the weeds of...“I'm not going to be dragged into the weeds of closely examining her model, even though that's where you live.”<br /><br />Look, I’ve never studied statistics, but is it okay if <i>I </i> drag you into the weeds?<br /><br />Because it appears the sampling statistics in Garza’s methodology are skewed. So why do you state that “There is no reason why the results from this poll should scale up to fit the general black population or the results in any given region of the US.”?<br /><br />I’d really like to know. I’ve learned a lot of useful stuff here, mainly from commenters.<br /><br />Leroy<br />Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021120389394278239noreply@blogger.com