THE ROLE OF MISTAKEN BELIEF: You fight false belief with the press corps you have!

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2020

ABC News does deaths: As the American experiment slides toward the sea, the sheer stupidity of our discourse seems to know no limits.

In large part, the onus falls on the commander in chief, who has introduced stupidity into the discourse at a level not previously known. Below you see parts of one exchange from Tuesday night's town hall forum, hosted by ABC News:

TRUMP (9/15/20): But what we’re doing is, we’re going to be doing a healthcare plan...We’re going to be doing a healthcare plan very strongly and protect people with preexisting conditions.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But you’ve been promising a new healthcare plan– We interviewed, I interviewed you in June of last year, you said the healthcare plan would come in two weeks. 

You told Chris Wallace that, this summer, it’d come in three weeks.

[...]

TRUMP: I have it all ready. I have it all ready. I have it all ready, and it’s a much better plan for [the person who posed the question], and it’s a much better plan.

STEPHANOPOULOS: What is it?

TRUMP: Obamacare was a disaster. Obamacare is too expensive, the premiums are too high. It’s a total disaster.

You’re going to have new healthcare, and the preexisting condition aspect of it will always be in my plan. And I’ve said that loud and clear.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But you haven’t come up with it.

Sad! The alleged health care plan has been two weeks away for the past two years! Moments later, as Stephanopoulos tried to fight his way through the commander's endless distractions, this further exchange occurred:

TRUMP: We have other alternatives to Obamacare that are 50 percent less expensive, and they’re actually better.

STEPHANOPOULOS: It’s been three and a half years.

And sure enough, so it has! By now, the commander has been making this fraudulent promise for well over three years! Somehow, though, this claim survives within the American discourse.

There's no boundary to the commander's willingness to generate transparent nonsense. On the other hand, here are the obvious questions Stephanopoulos never asked:

THE QUESTIONS NOT ASKED: You've been saying this for more than three years. Why haven't you ever presented this alleged health plan? Why should anyone believe that this plan exists?  
Please answer my questions directly.

Those are blindingly obvious questions, but they were never asked.

There is no limit to the nonsense the fast-talking commander will sell. At yesterday afternoon's press event, he discussed deaths from Covid-19 with the help of the world-class howler shown below.

As he spoke, he pointed to a graphic whose contents he thoroughly jumbled:

TRUMP (9/16/20): We’re down in this territory [pointing to the graphic], and that’s despite the fact that the blue states had tremendous death rates. If you take the blue states out, were at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at. We’re really at a very low level, but some of the states, they were blue states and blue state management. 

Have the blue states "had tremendous death rates?" In fact, the so-called red states have recorded as many deaths from Covid-19 as the so-called blue states. 

As everyone but the commander knows, the pandemic hit several blue states first, but it has long since moved on to the red. As for current weekly death rates, these are the ten states with the highest death rates at present, after adjusting for population:

States with the highest current death rates:

Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Kansas, Tennessee, North Dakota, Nevada, Texas, Georgia

Back in 2016, the commander won nine of those states. Our nation's current (extremely high) death rate is being driven in states which are red, not blue. 

(At present, the two states with the lowest death rates are New York and Vermont.) 

In short, there's no end to the stupidity of our discourse as our nation slides toward the sea. This numbing stupidity tends to start with our disordered commander in chief. 

Truly, we're all "with Stupid" at this point in time! Then too, the historian must acknowledge the remarkable role being played by the various "potted plants" found in the upper-end press corps. 

For today, consider something  Stephanopoulos did as he struggled to question Trump about our nation's death rate.

In fairness, questioning Donald J. Trump isn't as easy assignment! The commander spoke so fast and insistently on Tuesday night that he passed from the realm of the (stereotypical) used-car salesman to the realm of the star auctioneer.

Stephanopoulos battled to keep him on track. On balance, the ABC host did a reasonably decent job.  

That said, consider the way Stephanopoulos challenged Trump on the question of the nation's death rate from the coronavirus. He did a remarkably poor job in an area where two major stars at the New York Times  catastrophically bombed just last week.

A quick review! At present, there are two basic ways to describe a nation's death rate from Covid-19. We've covered this bone-simply material before:

Total deaths to date: On the one hand, we can talk about "total deaths to date"—the number of people who have died from Covid-19 dating back to the start of the pandemic. 

This is a perfectly valid measure. Then again, so is this:

Ongoing daily or weekly deaths: By now, western nation have had more than six months to adjust to the sudden onset of the pandemic. 

How many people are still dying from the virus after six months of possible adjustments? This is a second major way to tabulate a nation's "death rate." It's the better way to assess the success of a nation's leadership structure in responding to the pandemic.

Those are two obvious ways to report a nation's "death rate." What happened on Tuesday night as the commander praised himself for the brilliant job he's done in beating back the pandemic? 

Gack! As Stephanopoulos tried to challenge the commander's claims, he only referred to Total Deaths To Date. 

He never referred to the more relevant measure of presidential leadership. He never referred to Ongoing Daily or Weekly Deaths:

TRUMP (self-praise joined in progress): So I feel that we’ve done a tremendous job actually, and it’s something that, I don’t think it’s been recognized like it should, but when you look at our testing, when you look at our swabs, when you look at our ventilators, when you look at what we’ve done with hospitals—and we’ve made a lot of governors look very good, and now some are in a shutdown and some aren’t. We’d like to see it open up and open up as soon as possible.

But we’re very proud of the job we’ve done, and we’ve saved a lot of lives, a tremendous number of lives.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Mr. President, you mentioned a number of things here. Let’s talk about the mortality first. You said we’re doing better in mortality than other countries.

But here’s this chart right here. It says the United States is right here. This is number of deaths per million residents. Here’s Western Europe, here, Canada way down there. We’re not at the top of the list.

The commander said he's very proud of the job his team has done. To cite one example, they've done a great job with  swabs!

There's nothing so dumb that this fellow won't say it! He also said that his brilliant work "has saved a tremendous number of lives."

When Stephanopoulos challenged this claim, he noted that the United States isn't "at the top of the list" among comparable nations when it comes to Total Deaths To Date. 

That is certainly true. But Stephanopoulos never mentioned the more relevant "death rate" statistic—Ongoing Daily or Weekly Deaths at the Present Time. 

How do we look with respect to that measure of deaths? These are the embarrassing numbers ABC News didn't present:

Deaths from Covid-19, September 10-16:

United States: 6,258

United Kingdom: 78

Canada: 35

Japan: 68

South Korea: 23

Taiwan: 0 

Australia: 46

European Union: 1,325

Those numbers haven't been adjusted for population. Stating the obvious, there's no real reason to do so.  (The U.K. is no longer part of the E.U., so we include it here.)

For the record, the population of the European Union is about one-third larger than that of the United States. After adjusting for population, our nation's ongoing death rate is almost seven times that of the E.U. 

Even given a recent rise in deaths in France and Spain, that vast disparity remains. How brilliant does our blue-eyed boy's work with swabs look now?

(For the record, Germany recorded thirty (30) Covid-19 deaths in the week under review. Its population is about one-fourth as large as ours.)

Trump was praising the brilliant way he has vanquished the virus. The data say something vastly different, but George Stephanopoulos and ABC News went with the less relevant statistic. 

(The commander might say that they "choked!")

In a rational world, it would be hard to believe that a major news org could possibly be that incompetent. In our world, we have a genuine nut in the Oval Office, plus a collection of low-skill potted plants cluttering up our news orgs.

On balance, Stephanopoulos did a decent job. That said, he fanned extremely badly when it came to this basic statistical question.

In the past two weeks, two major figures at the New York Times tried to make a similar assessment about our nation's death rate. Their haplessness was astounding. 

With this sort of work at the top of the pile, our endlessly failing national discourse continues to run on mistaken belief as we slip-slide toward the sea.

Two major Timesmen tried to assess our nation's death rate. One is a graduate of Yale; the other emerged from Harvard. 

Their haplessness was simply jaw-dropping, but according to major credentialed experts, this is the state of our world.

Tomorrow: Douthat and Leonhardt do deaths


40 comments:

  1. "Have the blue states "had tremendous death rates?" In fact, the so-called red states have recorded as many deaths from Covid-19 as the so-called blue states. "

    Whoa? Can we see you calculations, dear Bob? And why suddenly we are back to absolute numbers, especially when the word "rates" is right there? Tsk, tsk, tsk.

    You're squirming, dear Bob. No numbers for blue vs red, and more zombie insults than usual.

    Meanwhile, all you need to do is to open https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ , click on Deaths/1M pop, and voila: the great achievements of the states controlled by your liberal cult are right there, for everyone to see.

    There's no surprise there, dear Bob: sending infected people to nursing homes, as apparently required by your zombie cult rituals, will do it every time.

    But thank you you your update on the reportedly perfect score of the Chinese island province of Taiwan, dear Bob.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Click on Deaths/1M pop? That's what you said to do about Italy and the United State 6 weeks ago and now Italy has surpassed the US by that metric just as Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida will surpass New York and New Jersey by that metric in the next few months so please spare us the bullshit.

      Delete
    2. (US has passed Italy in Italy has surpassed in deaths/1m pop.)

      Delete
    3. What, you expect Andrew Cuomo to become the governor of Arkansas?

      Delete
    4. I'm saying you will be wrong about blue states as you were wrong about Italy, as you were wrong about masks, as you were wrong about testing, as you were wrong about summer. And that you will continue to be wrong as you have been wrong so, so many times with this thing. I'm saying you're a stupid jackass. Queue the trite ad hominem:

      Delete
    5. Dear dembot, leaving aside your usual dembot word-salad, it's like I said:
      open https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ , click on Deaths/1M pop, and voila: the great achievements of the states controlled by your liberal cult are right there, for everyone to see.

      There's no such thing as "you will be wrong" in this, dear dembot, because it's right there right now, in front of your eyes.

      Comprende? Still no comprende?

      Delete
    6. OK but you claimed last month "FL still has far fewer deaths per mil than Italy" which is wrong now. FL now has more deaths per mil than Italy negating the point of your claim. Just as your point here will be negated when Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida surpass New York and New Jersey in deaths per mil in the next few months.

      Comprendez vous vierge douce?

      Delete
    7. No, dear dembot, it's still a word-salad. Last month FL had a lower death rate than Italy, and it'll alway have a lower death rate than Italy for that day. Despite FL being full of old and sick people.

      And if from the fact that FL is ahead of Italy today you conclude that Arkansas should be ahead of NY in the next few months, then you're just dumb. Sorry.

      But sure, negate away, dear dembot. Whatever turns you on.

      Delete
    8. OK - I will come back and let you know when Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida surpass New York and New Jersey in deaths per mil as I have let you know today Italy surpassed Florida in deaths per mil and not longer has "fewer" or "far fewer deaths" as you claimed back in the good ole days (last month).

      Delete

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  2. More people died of COVID last week in the US than the total number of people who died of COVID in China.

    ReplyDelete
  3. FYI:

    "More than 93 percent of the protests in the United States this summer were peaceful, according to a report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which monitors political upheaval worldwide. The report looked at 7,750 protests from May 26 through Aug. 22 in 2,400 locations across all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's 7% of all the protests.

      We don't know the source of the violence. Given that the alt-right was driving to protests deliberately to provoke violence (some were arrested before they got there), we know that protesters were not responsible for all the violence that occurred.

      I'll bet a lot of conservatives will be surprised by these numbers, given the way Trump has pushed a spurious association between protesting and violence.

      Delete
    2. Hmm. But what happened to The Joy of Looting, or whatever the latest zombie cult bestseller's title is?

      Are you, dembot, against looting? Protecting your WHITE PRIVILEGE? Agitating for WHITE SUPREMACY?

      What a shame.

      Delete
    3. Cecelia,
      You're confusing Liberals with private equity fund managers again.

      Delete
  4. "In large part, the onus falls on the commander in chief, who has introduced stupidity into the discourse at a level not previously known."

    Why do we call what the Trump administration does "stupidity" instead of venality?

    Today, Trump is undermining the validity of the upcoming election by suggesting that the votes cannot be accurately count. Barr is suggesting arresting the Mayor Seattle because he doesn't like how she handled protests in that city. He is also suggesting charging protesters with sedition (armed insurrection against the government), this for exercising their First Amendment right to free speech.

    This is not mere stupidity. It is an attack upon the freedom that has characterized our country up to this point. Calling this stupidity minimizes the threat and the importance of what Trump and his cronies have been doing.

    The President is evil and he is actively working to undermine American freedoms and our way of life. It is imperative that he be voted out of office in November (or sooner, if your state allows early voting).

    Somerby's continuing references to Trump as stupid or crazy makes him seem less dangerous than this would-be authoritarian dictator actual is. He needs to go, that need is urgent, because he is a threat no matter how ridiculous his hair, his inability to drink water or walk down stairs, or his inability to talk straight. He is allowing evil to prosper within his administration because he himself is 100% behind it. Don't underestimate the threat, the way Somerby encourages with his pleas for empathy for Trump. The man needs to go!

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Those are blindingly obvious questions, but they were never asked."

    It seems to me that Stephanopoulos did ask the questions and did pin Trump down. He didn't use the exact wording suggested by Somerby, but he pointed out that it had been 3-1/2 years with no plan.

    Somerby's idea that Trump can be pinned down with more direct questioning has no basis. When reporters do that, Trump walks away, shifts to another reporter, refuses to answer. Meanwhile, Stephanopoulos asked the questions and made it clear that Trump has no plan and has been offering a nonexistent plan for years.

    The fault is with Trump, not reporters such as Stephanopoulos.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What's the matter with you, Trump explained very clearly, his greatest evah health care plan which he will be signing in 2 weeks is already written "very strongly". Do you have any reason to doubt him?

      Delete
  6. "In short, there's no end to the stupidity of our discourse as our nation slides toward the sea. This numbing stupidity tends to start with our disordered commander in chief.

    Truly, we're all "with Stupid" at this point in time! "

    Somerby goes to the trouble of pointing out that the death rates are higher in red states now, something that Democrats are aware of, then calls us all stupid, as if the president's stupidity were being believed by everyone in the US.

    We are not all with stupid. Liberals and Democrats are not with this president or his supporters. There is a stark divide between the people who swallow the President's lies and those that do not.

    Somerby wants to lump liberals in with the president and call everyone stupid, but it doesn't work that way. In fact, it is offensive, given the ugly actions of this failed Republican president. Liberals didn't vote for him in the first place, have not approved of any of his acts as president, and have been working tirelessly to oppose him and ensure his loss in the upcoming election. WE ARE NOT ALL WITH STUPID, NOW OR EVER!!!

    Somerby needs to shut the fuck up.

    ReplyDelete
  7. There is no reason to prefer Somerby's statistic over that used by Stephanopoulos.

    If Stephanopoulos did a good job, as Somerby notes, why write a lengthy column about him, calling everyone stupid along the way?

    There is no terrible statistical failure here. Just an excuse to portray liberals as just as stupid as Trump supporters -- why? Aside from being untrue, what is the point of calling Americans stupid? Who gains? Why does Somerby keep doing this?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TRUMP (9/16/20): The blue states had tremendous death rates. If you take the blue states out, were at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at. We’re really at a very low level.

      Stephanopoulos did NOT do a good job, Somerby was actually too kind. Highly paid Rhodes Scholar Stephanopoulos did fail to call out this blatantly juvenile attempt at goal post moving. You can do this with any country--take out the areas that had high death rates and they too could say they look great. Student Trump would say to the teacher--take out all the answers I got wrong on the test and I did great!

      Delete
  8. "Two major Timesmen tried to assess our nation's death rate. One is a graduate of Yale; the other emerged from Harvard.

    Their haplessness was simply jaw-dropping, but according to major credentialed experts, this is the state of our world."

    Does Somerby think that Republicans refuse to wear masks because Stephanopoulos used the wrong death rate?

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  10. By ignoring the efforts of everyone in Trump's administration except Trump himself, Somerby gives the impression that Trump is the only crazy person on the right. Now that his term is winding down, some of Trump's appointees have been letting their own crazy leak out in public. One had to take a leave for health reasons, when his beliefs were too crazy for public consumption.

    Another, Barr, is letting it all hang out in terms of his plans for turning America into a police state. From Lawyers, Guns and Money blog:

    https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/09/the-madness-of-consigliere-barr

    ReplyDelete
  11. " plus a collection of low-skill potted plants cluttering up our news orgs."

    This seems a bit harsh when Somerby himself admitted that Stephanopoulos did a pretty good job:

    "On balance, Stephanopoulos did a decent job."

    ReplyDelete
  12. The don't fight false belief by niggling over statistics the way Somerby insists our reporters should do.

    You fight false belief by taking down the radicalizing websites that spread big lies. You fight false belief by shoving the alt-right back to the fringes, by examining the sources funding conspiracy theories (e.g., Russia and similar meddlers). You fight false belief by not tolerating it in your personal conversations with friends and family, making it clear that not only are such ideas fringey but also dangerous. You do not treat the failure to wear masks as harmless idiosyncrasy or personal freedom, but as an attack on the health of our nation promulgated by enemies of the people -- which is what it happening.

    Somerby thinks we should listen to The Other. Why? So that we legitimize their conspiracy theories and normalize their behavior? I don't think that is a good idea. The boundary between normal and crazy needs to be clearly defined during a time when there is a drive to wipe out facts and truth and replace these with divisive fantasies concocted by those who wish to control the populace.

    We have seen the need to defend truth since Trump was first nominated. Now Somerby seeks to obscure the truth by replacing it with nonsensical claims that only the correct stats can be used to describe covid and that reporters don't know those stats. The big picture couldn't be clearer. The USA has failed to deal effectively with covid, and it doesn't matter which of numerous stats you use to describe that fact. Taken collectively, the stats all point in the same direction -- toward Trump's failure of leadership during a major health crisis. Drilling into the weeds is no way to portray this, since it only confuses people are makes it seem like Trump's weedy rebuttals have merit. Somerby is not helping the situation but is adding to the confusion.

    Meanwhile, Trump has politicized the CDC and we cannot trust government information about potential vaccines. While Somerby fiddles. How did they get to him? I suspect it was via Fox News and Rush, and I would urge anyone serious about combating the threats to our democracy to begin by staying away from those contagions which Somerby has been urging us to watch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The USA has failed to deal effectively with covid, and it doesn't matter which of numerous stats you use to describe that fact."

      But you do need a stat to make claims about which country has failed and which hasn't. You seem to have some kind of math phobia. Or more likely you have a truth phobia, because data, numbers, stats are the only things that allow us to monitor our progress or lack of progress.

      Delete
    2. The stat Stephanopoulos was using did that fine, which was my point.

      I don't have a math phobia. I teach statistics at the college level. I think you need numbers to monitor progress, but not necessarily statistics. Modeling works too.

      Delete
    3. "I teach statistics at the college level." Wait, I thought Trump U. closed.

      Delete
    4. You are embarrassing yourself, Gloucon.

      Delete
  13. David Neiwert (who studies alt-right extremism) has a new book out about how people become radicalized via the internet:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/15/1977645/-Red-pills-and-radicalization-New-book-explores-how-conspiracism-is-overwhelming-us

    ReplyDelete


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