Covid statistics are very hard!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2020

What our corporate stars said: For the big major stars of our corporate press corps, Covid statistics are hard.

Consider what those major stars kept saying on cable last night. First, though, let's take a look at the nation's most recent Covid death statistics.

Below, you see the numbers from the Washington Post over the past four days. We're using the same title the Post uses on its highly informative graphic, which you can access here.

Spoiler alert! Please note the key word "reported:"

New deaths reported per day:
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506
Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Yikes! To an untrained observer, the numbers seem to be growing like Topsy.

It's true, of course, that the number of daily deaths has been growing in the past few months. But adding a tiny bit of complexity, here are the Post's numbers over the past seven days:

New deaths reported per day:
Thursday, November 26: 1,388
Friday, November 27: 1,410
Saturday, November 28: 1,240
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506
Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Now the pattern seems a bit more complex. The numbers were higher, then they were lower, then they were really high.

Meanwhile, the Post says the current 7-day "rolling average" is almost exactly 1,600 deaths per day from Covid. More precisely, over the past seven days, an average of 1,600.9 people have died from the virus per day.

Why have the numbers jumped around in the manner shown? As we've told you a million times—as we've even seen some journalists explain!—the "reporting" of Covid cases and Covid deaths tends to slow down on the weekends.

Those daily numbers are not supposed to be a record of the number of people who died each day. Instead, the numbers record the number of deaths which were officially recorded ("reported") that day.

For various bureaucratic reasons, the recording/reporting of Covid deaths slows on Sundays and Mondays, then jumps up starting on Tuesdays. For this reason, numbers on Sundays and Mondays tend to be artificially low. Numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays tend to be artificially high as various agencies report several days worth of cases or deaths.

In this instance, the existence of a lengthy Thanksgiving weekend almost surely exacerbated this regular weekly effect. Presumably, this helps explain why the numbers for the past few days were so appallingly high.

That said, our daily death rate has been getting higher. As of November 1, we were averaging 829 deaths per day, according to the Post's numbers. By December 1, the average had risen to 1,526.

How high will this daily death rate go? We can't tell you that. But here's what Rachel Maddow said on last evening's highly entertaining TV show. Maddow's numbers were slightly different from those in the Washington Post:

MADDOW (12/2/20): We thought it couldn't get any worse than it was in the spring, right? These are the numbers from the Covid Tracking Project.

This is today's daily death toll:

[Pregnant pause as the number 2,733 appears in bold on the screen]

2,733 Americans dead in a day. We are very quickly heading toward 3000 Americans dead in a day—toward the number of Americans who died on 9/11 dying every day.

Are we heading, very quickly, toward three thousands deaths every day? In a sense, yes we are! But we'll have to get to two thousand deaths per day first!

Will we ever reach the point where three thousand Americans are dying of Covid on a daily basis? Certainly, that's possible. At present, though, the 7-day average stands at 1,600 deaths per day. 

To our ear, Maddow seemed to be saying that 2,733 people died of Covid yesterday alone. ("2,733 Americans dead in a day," she mournfully said, after a pregnant pause.) But that isn't what those daily numbers  mean.

We're citing Maddow's presentation, but we saw people all over MSNBC making this apparent error last night. This morning, Mika started right in at 6:02 Eastern, explicitly saying that more than 2700 people had died of Covid yesterday.

The numbers these cable stars are citing do not record the number of people who died on a given day. Without any doubt, the daily average will continue to rise—but as far as we know, there is no record of how many people died on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, or on any particular day.

Does it matter that these stars keep making this harmless error? That they are still making this harmless error nine months into this mess?

Does it matter that they don't seem to be paying enough attention to give you an accurate account of where the numbers currently stand? Of what those numbers actually mean? Does any of this matter at all?

All in all, our political culture is so broken that virtually nothing matters any more. Misinformation is a very big business at this point, and that isn't going to change.

Right-wing orgs will keep cranking the lunacy out; many people will believe the various things they're told. Starting next week, we expect to start describing the various ways this same game is played Over Here, within our own pitiful tribe.

Maddow (and others) could have given you an accurate account of these rising numbers. Does it matter that they're too lazy, too indifferent to accuracy, too lacking in curiosity, to bother with something like that?

We'll only say this:

For decades now, our discourse has tended to run on narrative, not on a jealous search for accurate information. As a general matter, the children tell us the stories we like. The facts are much less important.

This has produced many bad outcomes over the years. Based on every indication, it will ever be thus.

Nothing will turn on the statements the various stars made last night and then again this morning. As a special treat, we decided to offer you the actual current facts.

We'll also offer  a special assurance! In many and varied ways, various things will, indeed, almost surely get worse. 


27 comments:

  1. "It's true, of course, that the number of daily deaths has been growing in the past few months. But adding a tiny bit of complexity,"

    Why do we need to add complexity when telling the public the status of covid?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I really want to thank Dr Emu for saving my marriage. My wife really treated me badly and left home for almost 3 month this got me sick and confused. Then I told my friend about how my wife has changed towards me then she told me to contact Dr Emu that he will help me bring back my wife and change her back to a good woman. I never believed in all this but I gave it a try. Dr Emu casted a spell of return of love on her, and my wife came back home for forgiveness and today we are happy again. If you are going through any relationship stress or you want back your Ex or Divorce husband you can contact his whatsapp +2347012841542 or email emutemple@gmail.com 

      Delete
    2. Hello, I am Theresa Williams After being in relationship with Anderson for years, he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him. That was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made a promise that anybody I know that has a relationship problem, I would be of help to such a person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem. His email: {drogunduspellcaster@gmail.com} you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or any other Case.
      1) Love Spells
      2) solution and cure to all sickness
      3) Herbal Cure for any disease/sickness
      4) Marriage Spells
      5) Pregnancy spell
      6) Breakup Spells
      7) Death spell
      8.) You want to be promoted in your office
      9) want to satisfy your lover 
      10) Lottery
      Contact this great man if you are having any problem for a lasting solution
      through {drogunduspellcaster@gmail.com}

      Delete
    3. Hello viewers around the Globe, I was despondent because i had a very small penis, about 2.5 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy a woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the INTERNET about this specialist called Dr,OLU and decided to contact him on his email: Drolusolutinthome@gmail.com) so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis Enlargement, Within 3 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr OLU I also learn that Dr OLU also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement etc.. If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr OLU now for help on his email ( Drolusolutionhome@gmail.com ) or add him on whatsapp line +2348140654426 






































      Hello viewers around the Globe, I was despondent because i had a very small penis, about 2.5 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy a woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the INTERNET about this specialist called Dr,OLU and decided to contact him on his email: Drolusolutinthome@gmail.com) so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis Enlargement, Within 3 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr OLU I also learn that Dr OLU also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement etc.. If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr OLU now for help on his email ( Drolusolutionhome@gmail.com ) or add him on whatsapp line +2348140654426 

      Delete



    4. This is very helpful...Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud. Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! and you can as well reach out to him on any of these cure for ALS, HPV, HSV, HIV, HERPES, Virginal Infection, Heart Burn, Cancer etc... You can Get in Contact with his via Email: (Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been searching !



      Delete
  2. "Does it matter that these stars keep making this harmless error?"

    Doesn't the word "harmless" in that sentence tend to suggest that the error doesn't matter?

    To some obsessive-compulsive types, all errors, no matter how tiny, matter hugely, even when there is no such thing as precision in this world. Is Somerby a member of that club?

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Does it matter that they don't seem to be paying enough attention to give you an accurate account of where the numbers currently stand? Of what those numbers actually mean? "

    Everyone on this fucking planet knows that more deaths are bad and fewer are good. What more does any human being have to know?

    Only ghouls like Somerby focus on deaths in order to batter a lesbian cable news host over an arcane detail that DOES NOT MATTER to any viewer watching her, except an asshole like Somerby.

    People want to know (1) can I go out drinking with my friends, (2) can quarantine include my significant other or do I have to go it alone, (3) when will this be OVER, (4) really, when will this be over, (5) will granny catch this, I hope she doesn't, (6) did my cat get out and can I go out and find her?

    None of this requires a rolling daily average to answer. Did I mention that Somerby is an asshole?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Does it matter that they're too lazy, too indifferent to accuracy, too lacking in curiosity, to bother with something like that?"

    Short answer: No.

    Long answer: The level of precision in reporting a measurement depends on the purposes for making that measurement in the first place, not solely the technical capacity for making the measurement (how people collect and report the data that is being summarized by that stat). All numbers are rough, rounded, and have considerable inaccuracy compared to an ideal. The measurement always (that's ALWAYS) differs from the entity being measured. Precision obviously matters when you are building a space shuttle. It doesn't matter when you are telling people that the pandemic is getting worse not better, so stay home and wear your masks. There is no reason to expend large amounts of effort on something that will not make any difference. Only fools do that -- and Somerby apparently.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How is curiosity involved in determining that an average is 2733 instead of 2735?

      A seven day average doesn't mean that 2733 people died during those 7 days. It means that on same days the number of daily deaths were higher than 2733 and on some days lower, with the best descriptor of central tendency being 2733. When you are talking about a rising trend, the highest number at the end of a 7-day period may be lower than the subsequent numbers that will occur in the next week, causing the average to rise. Somerby objects because Maddow reported the current day's figure, not an average that included the preceding 7 days of lower numbers. To report the 7-day average with those lower figures would be misleading in a situation where the number of cases has been growing exponentially. Insisting on using a 7-day average that represents the past and not the increasing growth is wrong, if your purpose is to impress upon people that they need to stay at home NOW, not in a few days when the average catches up to that higher number reported by Maddow.

      Somerby is being irresponsible and neglecting the importance of staying safe and telling the public what they need to do now, not in a week or so when covid has infected them or their family members.

      But Somerby's priority seems to be getting the numbers right, not informing the public of essential health information to better guide their behavior IN A FUCKING PANDEMIC!!!

      Delete
  5. "As a general matter, the children tell us the stories we like."

    As a general matter, does Somerby think we like to hear that covid stats are getting worse? I certainly don't. The people I hang around with think the pandemic is a bad thing and that rising numbers and more deaths are tragic. We are depressed about it, unhappy, and if we know anyone sick or dying, we are grieving. What world does Somerby live in?

    Conservatives call liberals a lot of bad things, but wishing for higher covid numbers is a step too far. That is an awful thing to say about anyone. What is wrong with Somerby?

    ReplyDelete
  6. “as far as we know, there is no record of how many people died on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, or on any particular day.”

    This is, of course, patently false.

    The death data comes from death certificates, which include the date of death.

    Most Covid trackers, including the CDC, use reported date rather than actual date of death because of a lag in posting the death certificate to the relevant computer system.

    However, “deaths by date of report were likely to be an undercount of the true number of deaths for that day” and “Deaths counted by date of report deaths may peak at an earlier date than deaths counted by date of death, but the trends are highly correlated.”
    (https://covidtracking.com/blog/is-there-a-right-way-to-chart-covid-19-deaths-over-time)

    ReplyDelete
  7. I really want to thank Dr Emu for saving my marriage. My wife really treated me badly and left home for almost 3 month this got me sick and confused. Then I told my friend about how my wife has changed towards me then she told me to contact Dr Emu that he will help me bring back my wife and change her back to a good woman. I never believed in all this but I gave it a try. Dr Emu casted a spell of return of love on her, and my wife came back home for forgiveness and today we are happy again. If you are going through any relationship stress or you want back your Ex or Divorce husband you can contact his whatsapp +2347012841542 or email emutemple@gmail.com 

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Are we heading, very quickly, toward three thousands deaths every day? In a sense, yes we are! But we'll have to get to two thousand deaths per day first!"

    That will be next week. We are going to get to two thousand deaths per day next week. (7 day moving average.) The average passed 1,800 today.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The old man and I read The Plague by Albert Camus.

    Somerby had referenced it here.

    Just read it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because mid-20th century Algeria is so much like the modern USA.

      "Many consider this novel to be a war allegory of the French resistance to the Nazis in World War II, pointing out the futility of human aspirations and the inevitability of suffering."

      Just like today, with Trump's nazification of the US.

      Delete
    2. Stephen King's The Stand, Chapter 8: read it.

      Delete
    3. Anonymouse 8:34am, anything insidious will seem comparable, what I found so compelling is that Camus is so dead-on articulate and true as to the emotional and intellectual responses.

      Delete
    4. Jim Jensen, just read it.

      The U.S. developed the virus. The U.S. surreptitiously spreads it to other countries via their own intelligence officers, A police officer named Joe Bob is instrumental in passing the 90% fatal virus along.

      Art hasn’t imitated life here, but you can’t have everything.

      Delete
  10. Josh Marshall reports:

    "2760 deaths were recorded, exceeding the 2752 deaths recorded on April 15th. While some part of that number may still be a reporting backlog from the holiday weekend there is every reason to believe that record will be exceeded again and again over the coming weeks and possibly months. All the evidence suggests it will get worse, quite likely much worse, and stay worse at least into February."

    Meanwhile, Somerby would rather fiddle and mock Rachel Maddow for saying essentially the same thing.

    ReplyDelete
  11. From Political Wire (Taegan Goddard quoting NY Times):

    “Governors, mayors and county executives have pleaded for federal aid before the end of the year. Congressional Republicans have scorned such assistance, with the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, calling it a ‘blue-state bailout.'”

    “But it turns out this budget crisis is colorblind. Six of the seven states that are expected to suffer the biggest revenue declines over the next two years are red — states led by Republican governors and won by President Trump this year.”

    ReplyDelete
  12. This is very helpful...Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud. Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! and you can as well reach out to him on any of these cure for ALS, HPV, HSV, HIV, HERPES, Virginal Infection, Heart Burn, Cancer etc... You can Get in Contact with his via Email: (Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been searching !

    ReplyDelete
  13. This is very helpful...Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud. Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! and you can as well reach out to him on any of these cure for ALS, HPV, HSV, HIV, HERPES, Virginal Infection, Heart Burn, Cancer etc... You can Get in Contact with his via Email: (Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been searching !

    ReplyDelete
  14. Omg I Finally Got Helped  !! I'm so excited right now, I just have to share my testimony on this Forum.. The feeling of being loved takes away so much burden from our shoulders. I had all this but I made a big mistake when I cheated on my wife with another woman  and my wife left me for over 4 months after she found out..  I was lonely, sad and devastated. Luckily I was directed to a very powerful spell caster Dr Emu who helped me cast a spell of reconciliation on our Relationship and he brought back my wife and now she loves me far more than ever.. I'm so happy with life now. Thank you so much Dr Emu, kindly Contact  Dr Emu Today and get any kind of help you want.. Via Email emutemple@gmail.com or Call/WhatsApp +2347012841542

    ReplyDelete
  15. Am here to testify what this great spell caster done for me. i never believe in spell casting, until when i was was tempted to try it. i and my wife have been having a lot of problem living together, she will always not make me happy because she have fallen in love with another man outside our relationship, i tried my best to make sure that my wife leave this woman but the more i talk to her the more she makes me fell sad, so my marriage is now leading to divorce because she no longer gives me attention. so with all this pain and agony, i decided to contact this spell caster to see if things can work out between me and my wife again. this spell caster who was a man told me that my wife is really under a great spell that she have been charm by some magic, so he told me that he was going to make all things normal back. he did the spell on my wife and after 5 days my wife changed completely she even apologize with the way she treated me that she was not her self, i really thank this man his name is Dr Odion he have bring back my wife back to me i want you all to contact him who are having any problem related to marriage issue and relationship problem he will solve it for you. his email is wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a man and his great. wish you good time.
    He cast spells for different purposes like
    (1) If you want your ex back.
    (2) if you always have bad dream
    (3) You want to be promoted in your office.
    (4) You want women/men to run after you.
    (5) If you want a child.
    (6) You want to be rich.
    (7) You want to tie your husband/wife to be yours forever.
    (8) If you need financial assistance.
    (9) HIV/AIDS CURE
    (10) is the only answer to that your problem of winning the lottery

    Contact him today on:wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com or whatsapp him on +2348136482342

    ReplyDelete
  16. I want to thank Emu Temple for the accurate readings he gave me and for also helping me bring back my lover.. If you are here and you are having any relationship problem please Contact Emu Temple on Via Email: emutemple@gmail.com OR Via WhatsApp +2347012841542 and result is 100% guarantee and He do lot more as:*Love Spells*Lost Love Spells*Divorce Spells*Stop Divorce Spell*Marriage Spells*Binding Spells*Breakup Spells*You want to be promoted in your office*Want to satisfy your lover*Death Spell*Gay/Lesbian Love Spell*Court case Spell*Politics Spell*Good-luck Spell*Bad Luck Remover Spell*Do as i say Spell*General cleansing Spell*Herbal remedy for all kind of disease    
    *Lottery Spell*Pregnancy Spell*Peins enlargement 

    ReplyDelete
  17. To anyone out there who thinks love spells don't work, I’m here to tell you that Lord Zakuza love spell is the best and most powerful. I am a wealthy man who has lots of assets and possessions but I have difficulty with women. Whenever I try to settle down with any, we end up breaking up and I had no idea of why I was going through such an experience in my relationship. It was so worrying that I couldn’t be myself anymore and I started searching for help everywhere even at my place of work. I was going through my work activities online and I came across a testimony of a lady called ( Febe Anouk ) regarding how Lord Zakuza helped her to restore her relationship with his love spell, I had to give it a try and I visited Lord Zakuza and I told him everything I was going through. Lord Zakuza consoled and promised to help me out with my situation by preparing a love spell for me. I followed the instructions given by him to me and within 48 hours, my Ex lover came looking for me and pleaded for forgiveness. Since I came in contact with Lord Zakuza, things have changed for good in my life and right now, I am married with two beautiful kids and my home is blessed. All thanks to Lord Zakuza I am forever thankful to you. WhatsApp him on +1 (740) 573-9483. Try him and your life will be blessed.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Covid-19 or Corona virus is the most powerful virus in the world in this moment.It is the most harmful virus in the world.It may causes death.Many people in the world everyday for this virus.So we should take many necessary steps to away from the Corona virus.Firstly we should maintain social distance.No need to go outside aspect emergency. Read more about HIPAA and COVID-19 Vaccine.

    ReplyDelete