Statistical numbering here in Our Town!

 FRIDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2020

The way we statistically number: Arguably, Vice President Pence is human history's greatest toady.

Today he got his first vaccine shot. Exactly six months ago, he wrote a Wall Street Journal column in which he basically said the commander in chief had basically conquered the virus.

The claims the vice president made in that column have held up rather poorly. In the course of correctly noting this fact, Jonathan Chait presents this example of the way we now statistically number over here in Our Town:

CHAIT (12/18/20): This prediction did not age well. Since Pence wrote that, hospitalizations from COVID-19 have more than tripled, daily cases risen nearly tenfold, and deaths shot up sevenfold, to more than 3,000 a day now.

Have Covid deaths shot up "to more than 3,000 a day?" Bad as things are, we know of no statistic which says that or anything like that. 

According to the Washington Post's numbers, our current 7-day average is 2,570 Covid deaths per day. The New York Times places the number at 2,596.

Nothing turns on a matter like this. That said, this is the way we handle statistics in our infallible town.

"Statistics are extremely hard." So Talking Barbie once thoughtfully said, as Talking Ken looked on.


16 comments:

  1. "and deaths shot up sevenfold, to more than 3,000 a day now."

    The key word in that sentence is NOW. There were more than 3600 reported coronavirus deaths in the US today, December 18, according to NBC News:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

    Somerby loves to use the 7-day rolling average, but it minimizes the trend of the pandemic because deaths are steeply increasing over time. If he used the 14-day rolling average instead, it would further reduce the number because it would include many more days during which deaths were lower, before the pandemic has picked up steam due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Deaths lag events which spread the virus by about 3-weeks to a month.

    All statistics must be considered in the context of the question they are meant to answer. There isn't any one right statistic that is better than any other, outside of the question being asked about the data.

    What does Somerby gain by insisting on his 7-day rolling average? He gets to call others stupid for using some other number. Somerby never considers the question raised by those others he attacks. Just as he overlooks the word NOW in Chait's sentence above. Chait is talking about today, this moment in time. For that purpose, use of the figure for today, at the current height of a pandemic whose curve is still increasing, is entirely appropriate and the least misleading number that can be used. Somerby suggested alternative is an underestimate of the CURRENT daily death toll.

    Chait is right and Somerby is wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ""Statistics are extremely hard." So Talking Barbie once thoughtfully said, as Talking Ken looked on."

    When Barbie famously said "Math is hard," she was immediately yanked off the market because of parent complaints.

    Now Somerby calls her statement about "Statistics is hard" thoughtful. Somerby never misses an opportunity to diss girls (women). Chait is male, so how is Barbie's opinion about stats even relevant here? Just another chance for Somerby to say something offensive about girls/women who do math, as if it were an unnatural act.

    Being able to run through a calculation without ever thinking about what the numbers mean is about as stupid as it gets. That's what Somerby does. In fairness, even grad students have trouble interpreting data, it is a skill learned with experience, but Somerby shouldn't be calling Barbie stupid when he, himself, has so much trouble USING as opposed to CALCULATING statistics.

    It makes him an asshole when he throws in these gender-based cracks about dolls that reflect sexist attitudes among men (not to mention being designed according to men's favorite porn-star measurements).

    ReplyDelete
  3. If Drum were to remark that it is December 19th Somerby would correct him that it is December 15th and 1/2.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "...we know of no statistic which says that or anything like that"

    And the statistics we do know are bullshit anyway, dear Bob. Anyone dying - even in a car accident - who tested positive is counted as a COVID death. Not to mention that testing positive really doesn't mean much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here, dear Bob:
      https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/who-finally-admits-pcr-tests-create-false-positives

      Testing stats are bullshit, mortality stats are bullshit. All you have is worshipping your God Covid. Enjoy.

      Delete
    2. They aren't bullshit to the people who catch covid and die you asshole. Go away. It was nice when you were gone.

      Delete
    3. I'm surprised he's back, after Biden's landslide victory over that loser he ran against.
      I already forget his name, but you know who I mean, the fake-tanned guy with bad hairpiece and tiny hands.

      Delete

    4. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
      Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever












      LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
      Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever

      Delete
  5. Of course the article cited made no specific claims as to how frequently a faulty methodology is used, and none referencing its frequency in the US. Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Furthermore, as Fauci stated: excessive PCR cycling will tend to pick up dead virus RNA. That may be a false positive for ongoing infection, but would count a recently infected individual. But then why listen to Fauci, right wing troll?

    ReplyDelete
  7. The car accident scenario has been well debunked elsewhere insofar as FINAL reporting by state agencies for cause of death references the event, but being a right wing troll exempts you from facts.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Getting your lover or your ex back has been made more easy by this powerful spell caster called Dr Odion. I am Rose by name and i am from canada, the only reason why i am on this site is to thank this powerful spell caster called DR. Odion and you can improve your relationship success by contacting him through these details (wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com Or call +2348136482342) This powerful spell caster did me a huge favor by helping me get my lover back to me within the speed of light and since then my relationship has been perfect.

    any problem of yours. He is specialized in the following:

    (1)Spell for protection from danger
    (2)Spell for magic
    (3)Spell for same sex love
    (4)Spell for healing
    (5)Spell for invisibility
    (6)Spell for riches and fame
    (7)Spell to get a good job
    (8)Spell for strong love and relationship
    (9)Spell to bring your ex back
    (10)speII for Lottery
    This man has great powers and is incredibly generous. You can contact him on
    (wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  9. My husband and I have been married for about 8 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to noticing some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work on like before, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help to make him come back to normal. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Ogala can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him about my broblem and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband change him will alay tell me ho much i and the kids main to him that he loves us so much he apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Ogala . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: email: drogalad02@gmail.com and also WhatsApp +2347049668119....

    ReplyDelete
  10. I want to share this wonderful testimony to the Good people all over the world on how I was able to Enlarge my Penis by Dr. Aziba. I was living a shameful life from my young age, just last month as I was browsing on the internet about Penis size  and Enlargement Products, I saw a testimony of a Man called Tim James testifying of how he was able to get his penis Enlarged by Dr. Aziba and I decided to also Email Dr. Aziba for my small penis size and he quickly respond to me and gave me the normal instructions which i did and then he shipped the product to me here in the united state which i received in just 3 working days and today i am very happy because i started seeing positive changes in my penis size in just 7 days of use.  Dr Aziba herbal product is the best recommended for you and to whom ever suffering from this shame or having any other diseases as well should Contact this great herbal doctor via his Email : Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com and WhatsApp Him on +2348100368288








    I want to share this wonderful testimony to the Good people all over the world on how I was able to Enlarge my Penis by Dr. Aziba. I was living a shameful life from my young age, just last month as I was browsing on the internet about Penis size  and Enlargement Products, I saw a testimony of a Man called Tim James testifying of how he was able to get his penis Enlarged by Dr. Aziba and I decided to also Email Dr. Aziba for my small penis size and he quickly respond to me and gave me the normal instructions which i did and then he shipped the product to me here in the united state which i received in just 3 working days and today i am very happy because i started seeing positive changes in my penis size in just 7 days of use.  Dr Aziba herbal product is the best recommended for you and to whom ever suffering from this shame or having any other diseases as well should Contact this great herbal doctor via his Email : Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com and WhatsApp Him on +2348100368288

    ReplyDelete

  11. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
    Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever

    ReplyDelete
  12. The recommendations regarding booster doses may have changed since then based on new research and developments in the pandemic. I recommend checking with your local health authority or healthcare provider.

    ReplyDelete