Covid statistics are very hard!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2020

What our corporate stars said: For the big major stars of our corporate press corps, Covid statistics are hard.

Consider what those major stars kept saying on cable last night. First, though, let's take a look at the nation's most recent Covid death statistics.

Below, you see the numbers from the Washington Post over the past four days. We're using the same title the Post uses on its highly informative graphic, which you can access here.

Spoiler alert! Please note the key word "reported:"

New deaths reported per day:
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506

Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Yikes! To an untrained observer, the numbers seem to be growing like Topsy.

It's true, of course, that the number of daily deaths has been growing in the past few months. But adding a tiny bit of complexity, here are the Post's numbers over the past seven days:

New deaths reported per day:
Thursday, November 26: 1,388
Friday, November 27: 1,410
Saturday, November 28: 1,240
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506

Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Now the pattern seems a bit more complex. The numbers were higher, then they were lower, then they were really high.

Meanwhile, the Post says the current 7-day "rolling average" is almost exactly 1,600 deaths per day from Covid. More precisely, over the past seven days, an average of 1,600.9 people have died from the virus per day.

Why have the numbers jumped around in the manner shown? As we've told you a million times—as we've even seen some journalists explain!—the "reporting" of Covid cases and Covid deaths tends to slow down on the weekends.

Those daily numbers are not supposed to be a record of the number of people who died each day. Instead, the numbers record the number of deaths which were officially recorded ("reported") that day.

For various bureaucratic reasons, the recording/reporting of Covid deaths slows on Sundays and Mondays, then jumps up starting on Tuesdays. For this reason, numbers on Sundays and Mondays tend to be artificially low. Numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays tend to be artificially high as various agencies report several days worth of cases or deaths.

In this instance, the existence of a lengthy Thanksgiving weekend almost surely exacerbated this regular weekly effect. Presumably, this helps explain why the numbers for the past few days were so appallingly high.

That said, our daily death rate has been getting higher. As of November 1, we were averaging 829 deaths per day, according to the Post's numbers. By December 1, the average had risen to 1,526.

How high will this daily death rate go? We can't tell you that. But here's what Rachel Maddow said on last evening's highly entertaining TV show. Maddow's numbers were slightly different from those in the Washington Post:

MADDOW (12/2/20): We thought it couldn't get any worse than it was in the spring, right? These are the numbers from the Covid Tracking Project.

This is today's daily death toll:

[Pregnant pause as the number 2,733 appears in bold on the screen]

2,733 Americans dead in a day. We are very quickly heading toward 3000 Americans dead in a day—toward the number of Americans who died on 9/11 dying every day.

Are we heading, very quickly, toward three thousands deaths every day? In a sense, yes we are! But we'll have to get to two thousand deaths per day first!

Will we ever reach the point where three thousand Americans are dying of Covid on a daily basis? Certainly, that's possible. At present, though, the 7-day average stands at 1,600 deaths per day. 

To our ear, Maddow seemed to be saying that 2,733 people died of Covid yesterday alone. ("2,733 Americans dead in a day," she mournfully said, after a pregnant pause.) But that isn't what those daily numbers  mean.

We're citing Maddow's presentation, but we saw people all over MSNBC making this apparent error last night. This morning, Mika started right in at 6:02 Eastern, explicitly saying that more than 2700 people had died of Covid yesterday.

The numbers these cable stars are citing do not record the number of people who died on a given day. Without any doubt, the daily average will continue to rise—but as far as we know, there is no record of how many people died on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, or on any particular day.

Does it matter that these stars keep making this harmless error? That they are still making this harmless error nine months into this mess?

Does it matter that they don't seem to be paying enough attention to give you an accurate account of where the numbers currently stand? Of what those numbers actually mean? Does any of this matter at all?

All in all, our political culture is so broken that virtually nothing matters any more. Misinformation is a very big business at this point, and that isn't going to change.

Right-wing orgs will keep cranking the lunacy out; many people will believe the various things they're told. Starting next week, we expect to start describing the various ways this same game is played Over Here, within our own pitiful tribe.

Maddow (and others) could have given you an accurate account of these rising numbers. Does it matter that they're too lazy, too indifferent to accuracy, too lacking in curiosity, to bother with something like that?

We'll only say this:

For decades now, our discourse has tended to run on narrative, not on a jealous search for accurate information. As a general matter, the children tell us the stories we like. The facts are much less important.

This has produced many bad outcomes over the years. Based on every indication, it will ever be thus.

Nothing will turn on the statements the various stars made last night and then again this morning. As a special treat, we decided to offer you the actual current facts.

We'll also offer  a special assurance! In many and varied ways, various things will, indeed, almost surely get worse.