Could Dobbs help Democrats hold the House?

THURSDAY, AUGUST 4, 2022

Price of gas, come on down:  Is it possible that Democrats could end up holding the House?

As usual, everything's possible! That said, Tuesday's pro-abortion rights vote in Kansas has the blue world wishin' and hopin'. Also this:

On last evening's Last Word, viewers were instantly told about that new Monmouth poll. Guest host Zerlina Maxwell did the honors:

MAXWELL (8/3/22): New polling today shows further movement away from the Republicans' extreme agenda. A new Monmouth poll finds that 50% of Americans want Democrats to be in control of the Congress compared to 43% who want Republicans to be in charge. And that's an 11-point swing away from Republicans just since the month of May.

Maxwell's report was accurate as far as it went. Inevitably, Morning Joe delivered the same good news this morning.

As far as it goes, it's all true! In the new Monmouth poll, 50 percent of respondents said they favor Democratic control of the House—but that 7-point advantage only holds among the somewhat motley crew known as "all Americans."

Among the more distinguished group known as "registered voters," the Democratic advantage in the Monmouth poll slips to just three points (Democrats 49, Republicans 46). And of course, it's often assumed, for various reasons, that Democrats need something like a 7-point advantage in surveys of this type if they hope to have a fighting chance to emerge with control of the House.

At any rate, that Monmouth poll is encouraging. Until you click over to 538.com, where a person can learn that other recent surveys exist, some of which tilt in a different direction. 

Having said that, let us also say this:

Another new survey, by YouGov for Yahoo News, shows Democrats with a 6-point advantage among registered voters. We don't see much point in pushing the Monmouth survey while ignoring that.

Long ago and far away—during Campaign 2000, for example—cable channels would typically cite a compendium of recent polls when some new survey appeared. By now, even that practice may be fading away as cable channels  restrict themselves to citing the outcomes their particular viewers might like.

At this point, the GOP almost seems to be trying to snatch November defeat from the jaws of victory. But November is still a long ways away, and no single survey should ever be regarded as "right."

The Democrats may be gaining ground. As barkers used to say on TV,  Gas prices, come on down!


27 comments:

  1. It turns our Republicans were fascists all along.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "And of course, it's often assumed, for various reasons, that Democrats need something like a 7-point advantage in surveys of this type if they hope to have a fighting chance to emerge with control of the House."

    Not seven, dear Bob; more like four percent.

    Otherwise, yes, you're right. While we are cautiously optimistic about widely expected and well-deserved collapse of your liberal death-cult, it's too early to speculate. Wake us up in late October.

    ReplyDelete
  3. “At this point, the GOP almost seems to be trying to snatch November defeat from the jaws of victory.”

    It wouldn’t be the first time. It certainly won’t be the last.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Are you sure it's due to Dobbs, and not that Republican snowflakes were seen by pretty much the entire country, throwing a childish temper tantrum, just because black people's votes counted in the 2020 Presidential election?

    ReplyDelete
  5. In some good news, the DoJ is going after the gang of thugs, who killed Breonna Taylor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. The FBI attorney who lied on a FISA application, which allowed the feds to wiretap Carter Page and every individual who Page spoke with and to wiretap every individual with whom those people spoke, got 12 months probation and still has a law license.

      The attorney committed a felony which carries a maximum sentence of five years jail time and a fine of up to $250,000.

      Delete
    3. Last I heard, Carter Page is still alive. Taylor, not so much. How are these events equivalent to you?

      Delete
    4. They’re not equivalent as to someone dying, but neither is Clinesmith’s penalty equivalent to his crime.

      Establishment, baby.

      Delete
    5. Be careful, Cece. Bob still supports, Kyle Rittenhouse, who's only crime was protecting racial hierarchies.

      Delete
    6. “Who’s your daddy”?

      Delete
  6. Somerby says cable news MAY be reporting polls differently and on the strength of that accuses them of telling us what we want to hear. Even though 538 is showing a swing toward Dems too. If Somerby is liberal why does he begrudge us occasional good news?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Adios Hispanics:

    https://twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1553767805270597636/photo/1

    I guess we should have pretended like we like and care about you.

    Thank God we're been pretending like we like and care about Blacks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Goo riddance. The whites who allowed Biden to win a landslide election in 2020 showed them who was boss.
      Who are you going to believe, 9:16, or Fox News?

      Delete
    2. Let's hope the reports on MSNBC of Hispanics leaving the Democratic party aired the week are wrong.

      Delete
    3. Oh good. So Hispanics leaving the Democratic party is just a made up story and we don't have to worry about it.

      Delete
    4. If it was true, Republican legislatures wouldn't need to suppress their votes.

      Delete
    5. Hispanics are unhappy w/economy, foreign policy, & gun violence. Only 19% of Hispanics approve of Biden, while 70% disapprove. But putting abortion and transgender rights at the front and center of our platform will get them to come around.

      Delete
    6. "gun violence"
      No wonder they're leaving the Democratic Party.

      In other news, TDH needs better trolls.

      Delete
    7. Re: Hispanic polling
      What percentage will believe there may come a day when they forgive Joe Biden for not Nationalizing the fossil fuel companies?

      Delete
    8. It's your business if you think Hispanics are not leaving the Democratic party and it's a non-issue.

      Delete
    9. Yeah I've had propagandists complain about me not buying their bullshit in the past, too. Seems, it may be one of my superpowers.

      Delete
    10. Look how far you're superpowers have brought you!

      Delete
    11. What do your superpowers tell you about Trump and Russia coordinating or conspiring in the 2016 election?

      Delete
    12. If you see a Republican voter, and they don't seem like a bigot to you, it's not a superpower. Most likely, you have fallen and hit your head too hard.

      Delete
  8. Polls and predictions are cable news junk filler about 95 percent of the time. Bob’s post here is too.

    ReplyDelete