Could Dobbs help Democrats hold the House?

THURSDAY, AUGUST 4, 2022

Price of gas, come on down:  Is it possible that Democrats could end up holding the House?

As usual, everything's possible! That said, Tuesday's pro-abortion rights vote in Kansas has the blue world wishin' and hopin'. Also this:

On last evening's Last Word, viewers were instantly told about that new Monmouth poll. Guest host Zerlina Maxwell did the honors:

MAXWELL (8/3/22): New polling today shows further movement away from the Republicans' extreme agenda. A new Monmouth poll finds that 50% of Americans want Democrats to be in control of the Congress compared to 43% who want Republicans to be in charge. And that's an 11-point swing away from Republicans just since the month of May.

Maxwell's report was accurate as far as it went. Inevitably, Morning Joe delivered the same good news this morning.

As far as it goes, it's all true! In the new Monmouth poll, 50 percent of respondents said they favor Democratic control of the House—but that 7-point advantage only holds among the somewhat motley crew known as "all Americans."

Among the more distinguished group known as "registered voters," the Democratic advantage in the Monmouth poll slips to just three points (Democrats 49, Republicans 46). And of course, it's often assumed, for various reasons, that Democrats need something like a 7-point advantage in surveys of this type if they hope to have a fighting chance to emerge with control of the House.

At any rate, that Monmouth poll is encouraging. Until you click over to 538.com, where a person can learn that other recent surveys exist, some of which tilt in a different direction. 

Having said that, let us also say this:

Another new survey, by YouGov for Yahoo News, shows Democrats with a 6-point advantage among registered voters. We don't see much point in pushing the Monmouth survey while ignoring that.

Long ago and far away—during Campaign 2000, for example—cable channels would typically cite a compendium of recent polls when some new survey appeared. By now, even that practice may be fading away as cable channels  restrict themselves to citing the outcomes their particular viewers might like.

At this point, the GOP almost seems to be trying to snatch November defeat from the jaws of victory. But November is still a long ways away, and no single survey should ever be regarded as "right."

The Democrats may be gaining ground. As barkers used to say on TV,  Gas prices, come on down!