MONDAY, JANUARY 22, 2024
It's time to start sussing that out: Is Joe Biden going to win this year? It's time to start sussing that out.
We're not entirely sure that he will or that he can. We're very concerned by the possibility that he might not be able to make it through.
We'll be voting for Biden ourselves—but tens of millions of voters are going to disagree with our assessments and our decision. As we look ahead to an inevitable "Year That Was," we'll only make this first suggestion:
Blue tribe members need to be more sagacious about the possible lay of the land.
We need to stop listening to the corporate-paid thought leaders who have failed us so many times in the past. Also, we need to stop otherizing everyone who disagrees with our understandings, our assessments and our viewpoints.
We need to stop trusting Mika and Joe and their stable of sidekicks and guests. We need to stop trusting Rachel and Chris and Lawrence and even Professor Tribe, who quickly announced that Stefanik was right. We badly need to get over ourselves, though that's very unlikely to happen.
The current, very difficult state of affairs has been developing for decades. Our tribe has played a significant part in creating this mess. It may be too late to fix it.
Is Biden going to win this year? As we begin the final struggle with that question, we strongly advise you to stop putting your faith in corporate-paid tribal cheerleaders and their various "dear, dear friends."
They've served you very badly for decades. Often, they're being paid enormous sums to attract your eyeballs and your clicks. (You're not allowed to know how much.)
Even where they're well-intentioned, they simply don't merit your trust.
Michelle Obama has dieted.
ReplyDeleteIn the real world, Dexter King has died.
DeleteI am wondering whether this repetition of obituaries in comments is intended to remind readers that Biden is an old guy and might die too. But that applies equally, if not more so, to Trump. His attorney now has covid, which suggests he may get it too, but he is more fragile than his younger attorney and no one knows if he has had a recent vaccine. I would worry more about Trump than Biden right now.
DeleteMy guess is that Biden won’t run. The Dems are smart enough to avoid the only candidate Trump might beat.
ReplyDeleteYou mean like Trump beat him in 2020?
DeleteBe aware that trolls are playing games with David's nym again today. The real David in Cal's nym appears in green. When it is in black, like now, it is most likely someone imitating him. This is antisocial blog behavior, but what else do you expect from trolls?
DeleteBlack David writes in the same style, and green David never complains. Maybe it’s the same David on two different devices.
DeleteBlack David has been saying more inflammatory things. They may both be trolls, but black David is more obvious about it, if so. Black David writes like a troll but green David writes like a stubborn Republican.
DeleteDavid is no doubt on of our posters fully convinced he’d be riding high of the Red Wave last time round. But clearly something about Biden’s basic decency offends DIC.
Delete@2:31 is correct. Apparently the color depends on whether i post on the desktop or the I-phone.
Delete@3:48 Even if Biden were decent, his decision to essentially open the Southern border would compel me to vote for his opponent.
He has made no decision to "essentially open the Southern border". His policies are closely similar to Trump's and he has enacted measures that are much more strict than most liberals would like.
Delete@5:10 Today's news The Supreme Court on Monday granted the Biden administration’s request to vacate a lower court decision surrounding Texas’s placement of razor wire along the southern border, clearing the way for Border Patrol officials to remove physical blockades from the border.
DeleteBiden went to court to prevent Texas from immigration law. That's incredible, or at least it should be. Shouldn't the federal and state governments work together to enforce the law?
That's one reason why I say Biden's border is essentially open.
Should be 'To prevent Texas from ENFORCING immigration law'.
DeleteEvery human being understands that enforcing border law is a balance between preserving human life and enforcing laws. That razor wire recently caused the drowning deaths of a mother and her two young daughters because the US border patrol was not permitted to intervene to save them. Biden went to court to prevent atrocities like that one, not to let migrants into the country indiscriminately, as you pretend. There are important questions about HOW the law is enforced, not WHETHER it is enforced. Those migrants would still have been denied entry, had they lived. Abbott's heartlessness reflects poorly on all Republicans, but especially Texans.
DeleteDavid,
DeleteHave you called your Congressional representatives to ask them how they will streamline legal immigration, and make it easier to navigate?
If not, why not?
A border deal to nowhere? House GOP ready to reject Senate compromise on immigration
DeleteGo fuck yourself, David.
"...this enormous influx changes the nature and values of the country."
DeleteI see David's "economic anxiousness" is acting-up again.
"We're not entirely sure that he will or that he can. "
ReplyDeleteWho is ever entirely sure about anything before a presidential race? Why does Somerby express this unreachable standard of certainty for his comments? Is he pretending that he is not pushing Trump here when he talks about such uncertainties, or is this meant to respect that all such predictions are probabilistic and not certain? He was certain in his other post today, that Fani Willis has been romantically involved with Wade. Most people talking about probabilities and likelihood use numbers, such as saying that there is a 51.3 to 46.8 chance that Biden will win, like he did in 2020. Why not Somerby? Is it because math is hard -- for him?
Basic math is virtually impossible to Right-wingers. And don't get me started on Economics.
Delete"We'll be voting for Biden ourselves—but tens of millions of voters are going to disagree with our assessments and our decision."
ReplyDeleteOf course tens of millions of voters will disagree. Trump won upwards of 74 million votes in 2020, and he still lost by a wide margin, in both the popular vote and electoral college. And Somerby was just as uncertain that Biden could win then, and he was saying just as often that Trump was going to win. So what is different now?
Biden has no chance of beating Trump. He was already in huge trouble but Israel/Gaza buried his chances. It's over for Joe Biden.
ReplyDeleteIsrael/Gaza has affected both parties because views about the conflict are not aligned with partisan voter affiliation. In FL, for example, voters rejected a right wing candidate in favor of a Democrat because of abortion rights. That is going to be a widespread issue motivating a swing to Biden that the right wing has not recognized. It is going to have a stronger impact than Israel/Gaza because (1) it seems likely the crisis will be negotiated by next Nov., and (2) there is a clear split along party lines when it comes to abortion, but not about Israel/Gaza, (3) Biden has been doing what most Americans want him to do about the conflict, (4) Trump supported Netanyahu, who is widely blamed for what has happened in Israel/Gaza, (5) Trump has no viable solution to propose so he is not pushing that issue in his rallies, (6) most people who would vote for Biden are not single-issue voters, so their disappointment about Israel/Gaza would be tempered by Biden's economic accomplishments, his stand on abortion rights, his stepped up border enforcement efforts, and so on. In contrast, Trump offers a cult of personality and no clear policy positions. Given that his personality is increasingly repugnant to undecided and independent voters, especially women, he will likely do worse than in 2020. There is no reason to think he will do better.
DeleteComing here and telling readers that Trump is going to win is not an effective GOTV or campaign strategy, all by itself, which is all that anyone has been offering when it comes to Trump.
Biden has no chance of beating Trump. GOTV would be a waste of time. You'll see.
DeleteWhat is your evidence for that? Please cite something besides favorability ratings and early polls, which have little relation to general election results. For example, Trump's rally attendance and his speaking appearances have both been decreasing. How does he expect to win with less effort and lower enthusiasm from his supporters, when he couldn't win with much better effort last time?
DeleteIn order to evaluate the likely truth of your statement and to understand why you said it.
DeleteOh. I don't believe that is possible.
DeleteThen you are wasting your time making comments like that one.
DeleteHow so?
DeleteRight wingers are like kids watching Peter Pan, just chant it and wish it and it will be so.
Delete"We need to stop trusting Mika and Joe and their stable of sidekicks and guests. We need to stop trusting Rachel and Chris and Lawrence and even Professor Tribe, who quickly announced that Stefanik was right."
ReplyDeleteThis is such an odd admonishment. Who "trusts" Mike or Joe or the others? We listen to them, are sometimes entertained by them, but no one I know accepts what they say at face value or without checking other sources. They are a talk show, a time wasting morning show for people who like some noise along with their eggs, so they don't feel so alone when they wake up. I know people who have the TV on all day long, because the silence would be oppressive and remind them of loneliness or make them feel vulnerable in their solitude. Others don't find that kind of thing helpful, or thet like music better, but no one I know trusts any of those guys. I wouldn't loan them my lunch money, for sure.
Is Somerby saying they are untrustworthy because people DO trust the talking heads on Fox News? Does he think blue tribe members have the same gullibility as Trump MAGAts? We don't, to my knowledge. I've never had a friend who told me something was true because Mika or Joe said so. Of course, newspapers are different, because it is their job to report true things (within the limits of human error). But none of us are trusting opinion writers -- those are not the places in the paper where truth appears.
I would definitely say "Don't trust Somerby" and check what he says about any topic. He was so majorly wrong about those MS NAEP reading scores, for example, and never really corrected himself, even after numerous people gave him sources showing that he was wrong. And he led a trusting Kevin Drum and some opinion writer for the Los Angeles Times down that rabbithole with him. It turned out that Mika and Joe were right about that one.
"Our tribe has played a significant part in creating this mess. "
ReplyDeleteBut Rush Limbaugh played a bigger part. What might life be like without Chris Rufo? We can only dream about that. Meanwhile, Somerby has never mentioned his name here. That's pretty odd, in my opinion.
All you need to do to understand how full of crap Bob is is to imagine a post blaming the short comings of Joe and Mika on MAGA.
Delete"Is Biden going to win this year? As we begin the final struggle with that question, we strongly advise you to stop putting your faith in corporate-paid tribal cheerleaders and their various "dear, dear friends.""
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you, but I don't choose my presidential candidate by deciding in advance who will win, and then supporting that guy with my heart and soul. I pick my candidate by deciding who SHOULD win, who will be best for the country (in my opinion), who has expressed positions and offered programs that align with my own ideas of what is needed. And then I work my heart out for that person. In 2016, it was Hillary. In 2020, it was Biden. In 2024 (barring changes in the candidates available), it will be Biden again. I don't love everything he has done (for example on the border) but he is far and away better than Trump, who offers no concrete proposals to evaluate and is morally unacceptable and a criminal. There is no question about it, no matter whether Somerby says Biden's chances are strong or weak.
Even if Biden were someone like Eugene McCarthy, who I voted for in CA after he had already given a concession speech, I would vote for him because he is the best candidate in my evaluation (not Somerby's or the NY Times or Laurence Tribe's opinion). And I put time, energy, money and personal resources into supporting those I want to win.
So I do not see why Somerby continues with this whining about Biden not being a sure thing. You make someone a sure thing by working for them, not by whining about their polls (or whatever Somerby is concerned about -- he never really says anything except Biden's age, which is not something anyone can fix).
When the bulk of registered voters start paying attention to this election, the numbers will change. But that isn't going to make me or any other serious political buff complacent. Somerby has no faith in Biden, even after the same complaints in 2020. That is Somerby's problem. Meanwhile, does Somerby imagine that it helps Biden's chances when he whines that Biden is going to lose, over and over and over? No, it helps Trump. And that is why I suspect that Somerby is lying about who he will vote for. Because when people support a candidate, they advocate for them, and not for the other guy, especially when that other guy is a crook.
"(You're not allowed to know how much.)"
ReplyDeleteSalaries of cable news hosts are public knowledge. For example, it was public knowledge that Rachel Maddow was paid $22 million whereas Tucker Carlson was paid $27 (before they both left their respective gigs). This idea that such info is being suppressed is ridicuous. Just google it.
Ari Melber $3 million
Joe Scarborough $8 million
Mika Brzezinski $8 million
Willie Geist $5 million
Greg Gutfield $24 million
Jesse Watters $12 million
Does it surprise anyone that the people at Fox News are paid more than those on MSNBC or CNN? I guess we aren't allowed to know that either. Somerby's exclusive focus on blue tribe salaries might lead a person to believe otherwise.
Yes. This is a longstanding example of Bob siting a general problem and treating it as only a problem of the left.
DeleteSiting? Did you mean citing?
DeleteThe US Supreme Court says the Border Patrol can cut barbed wire installed by Texas.
ReplyDeleteBiden protects access to contraception and abortion.
ReplyDeletehttps://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/biden-administration-new-steps-protect-contraceptives-abortion-medication/story?id=106562383
"They've served you very badly for decades."
ReplyDeleteI don't recall MSNBC predicting that Trump was going to win in 2020. They did predict Hillary would win, but everyone did, largely because it was not a normal election due to foreign interference and Comey's malfeasance. It seems to me that MSNBC in particular and CNN to a lesser extent, have reliable informed the public about any number of issues. Fox has not done the same.
So, on what basis does Somerby claim that mainstream media have served us liberals badly? I think it is Somerby who has been serving us badly, and Fox News has served no one well but Trump and the Republicans, with their partisan warfare. Somerby's mistake is to equate what happens on the right to what happens on the left and say they are the same when they are very different.
Kevin:
ReplyDeletehttps://jabberwocking.com/james-comer-is-a-big-fat-liar/
Somerby is raising the wrong media issue. He should be asking why the mainstream media isn't talking more about Trump's recent cognitive gaffes and confusion. Instead, it seems like the press in general and the right wing press especially is either ignoring Trump's problems or pretending he is making mistakes on purpose.
ReplyDelete"Donald Trump’s recent rhetorical fumble in which he confused Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi has begun raising concerns about media coverage of the leading Republican presidential candidate's mental state.
New Republic editor Michael Tomasky, in a five-alarm missive condemning the coverage of Trump's startling weekend statement, asked readers to imagine what would have happened if President Joe Biden publicly confused a campaign opponent with a past speaker of the House.
“Things might well cascade to the point that Biden would have to stand down,” Tomasky writes. “But when Trump says it — it’s not like it’s nothing.” [Rawstory]
If we are to trust the press, they need to tell the truth about Trump's cognitive decline.
Here is a dissenting view from Somerby's claim that Trump will win this year:
ReplyDelete"...
Look, Republicans KNOW they can't win with the odious Traitor Trump as their nominee, because there is nothing that recommends him to the majority of Americans.
So they are pivoting hard and trying desperately to cool support for Biden by making Americans believe they are both the same people -- that no good has come from the past four years under President Biden.
They are just a couple of old guys.
This is a desperate, long-shot attempt to minimize Biden’s accomplishments the past three years, and throttle voter enthusiasm, but you can count on our pathetic media to swallow it whole just as they did on NPR today.
So let’s get this out of the way but quick: These two men are not the same, and in fact, couldn’t be more different.
The difference in them is STARK, and easily provable.
For instance, one candidate is a family man, who goes to church each Sunday, the other man is a deviant who stiffs his caddie on the golf course every Sunday after a night of ogling blondes at his garish club, where he celebrates himself, and hides classified documents in his golden bathroom.
One man got us into a pandemic that killed millions by lying about it for months and then suggesting we drink Lysol, the other helped us get through it by leaning on science and compassion.
One stands for Democracy, the other attacks it.
One stands for women's rights and voting rights, the other attacks them.
One campaigned on getting infrastructure done, the other actually DID IT.
I could go on forever here, but I am sure you get the point, dear readers.
By allowing this heated crap to spread that "Americans don't want another Trump-Biden election" we are helping to do the work of the devil.
It must be stopped dead in its tracks now, and before it’s too late.
So a suggestion:
When you hear the Republican trope "Americans don't want another Trump-Biden election," I suggest you politely push back and say: "Wrong. REPUBLICANS don't want another Trump-Biden election, because they know Biden will once again take their orange clown to the woodshed."
D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. Follow @EarlofEnough and on his website. [via Alternet]
This is what an actual liberal Biden-supporter sounds like. Just as Trump and Biden are nothing alike, Somerby and practically any other liberal on this planet are nothing alike either.
Digby is talking about Trump's cognitive health:
ReplyDeletehttps://digbysblog.net/2024/01/22/hes-losing-it/
Some funny examples of Trump's mistakes, including one where he forgot he wasn't president in 2021.
And, as is customary for politicians who boot lick Trump and turn their back on their country, DeSantis is endorsing him despite clearly amassing enough examples to unequivocally pronounce Trump demented (and that's not even including the identification to buy bread remark).
DeleteThis is amusing too:
ReplyDeletehttps://digbysblog.net/2024/01/21/real-americans-4/
It examines Somerby's persistent theme that the right hates the left because we are snobbish elites.
Digby discusses the sexism surrounding election of a female candidate for president:
ReplyDeletehttps://digbysblog.net/2024/01/22/if-you-think-this-isnt-common-think-again/
I wouldn't be surprised if sexism were not part of Somerby's reluctance to enthusiastically support Biden, his concern about Biden's age. We have a female vice president who is backstopping Biden and would take over if he were in poor health. The fear that a woman cannot run the nation effectively may lead to an exaggerated concern over Biden's health.
So, when we say that the nation survived under Harry Truman, who took over when FDR died in office, the male voter may be thinking, yes but Give em Hell Harry was not a woman who might have bad days at that time of the month, etc. etc.
Ridiculous figures like Alina Habba, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert further these negative stereotypes, but they are right wing caricatures of female politicians, unlike women such as Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein, who wielded power without conforming to derogatory stereotypes.
Kamala Harris was state District Attorney and a Senator before becoming Vice President. She has handled herself with the dignity and effectiveness of a male VP and there is no reason for voters to distrust her ability to take over in a crisis or even the death of Biden, at any point in a second term. Sexism in politics needs to be made explicit, conscious to the voters, so that they will understand that if they feel a faint unease at the thought of Biden's age, it might be worth questioning why they lack confidence in Kamala Harris's ability to pick up wherever Biden has left off.
I suspect that Somerby over-emphasis of Biden's age reflects his own unwillingness to consider women full participants in serious endeavors such as politics, government, and even standup comedy. But I doubt he will examine his own reactions long enough to understand that if he cannot consider Ketanji Brown Jackson fully qualified as a supreme court justice, there is unlikely to be any women he would accept as a sound vice president. After all, he called Harris herself a liar, for repeating statistics on the gender pay gap provided on the Department of Labor's own webpage. How could a woman who commits that heinous sin be fit to take over if Biden dies in office?
There's a chance voters under 45 with student debt will play hardball against Biden
ReplyDeleteBiden’s debt relief plan was ruled unconstitutional by a Supreme Court decision 6-3, with liberal justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Brown-Jackson dissenting and the conservatives all voting to stop debt relief. Biden has since found ways to forgive debt in other ways. How then can Biden be blamed for student debt?
Delete@7:01: those voters would do what….vote for trump? He and the republicans are opposed to student loan forgiveness. Biden, meanwhile, continues to work on it: “ Biden-Harris Administration Announces Additional $4.9 Billion in Approved Student Debt Relief”
Deletehttps://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-announces-additional-49-billion-approved-student-debt-relief
Doesn't even touch half a percentage of the debt total
DeleteHe can’t exactly snap his fingers and wish it away. He tried before to give relief to more people, but Republican attorneys general filed a lawsuit to stop him. He believes in working within a legal framework, so he can’t perform magic.
DeleteThe president only needs a pen to cancel debt not magic
Deletehttps://www.democracynow.org/2022/2/23/pressure_grows_biden_cancel_student_debt
"He has the authority to cancel student debt, thanks to the Higher Education Act. Congress already granted the president and the education secretary the authority to cancel student debt. In fact, President Biden, during his career as a senator, voted to authorize the Higher Education Act multiple — to reauthorize it multiple times. So, he, in fact, was part of the constituencies that granted the president — now him — the authority to do this. "
DeleteLeonard Leo and Harlan Crow, Clarence Thomas' sugar-daddies, are not going to like this at all.
DeleteThis raises a good point. Biden is going to win exactly because the country is so polarized. If the candidates were closer in their characteristics (as Gore and Bush were) then it might be a toss-up who someone chose to vote for, making the decisions closer. But given how bad Trump is, Biden's less troublesome flaws (including age) are unlikely to push anyone to vote for Trump. Trump is a rapist and a criminal but Biden is old. Is there really any choice? The Republicans want a national abortion ban and plan to do away with civil service but Biden is old. Again, is there really any choice? The majority of the country will find that it cannot vote for Trump and that will leave Biden as the only reasonable alternative and the winner.
ReplyDeleteThat Somerby cannot see this troubles me. You might call that a cognitive deficit on his part.
Berish Strauch has died.
ReplyDeleteChief Justice John Roberts voted to let the Border Patrol cut Texas’s barbed wire.
ReplyDeleteHere’s the link:
Deletehttps://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna132890
This decision is temporary while they consider the case.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:25pm, disappearing Amy Coney Barrett.
DeleteCecelia, good catch.
DeleteMary Weiss died three days ago.
ReplyDeleteThe only good trait of Republican politicians is their complete and total contempt for Republican voters. If you're not down with that, you're not paying enough attention.
ReplyDeleteI don't need tribal leaders to tell me to support Democracy. I already knew that. Trumpsters don't know that or care to know that.
ReplyDeleteTrumpsters only care about bigotry and white supremacy.
DeleteI know it. Try listening to "the Others", like Bob told you to, and then you'll know it too.
Crimey. Going after Somerby's friends and neighbors, calling people you've never met "creepy racists." You should be Somerby's Exhibit A.
ReplyDeleteOK, sorry to leave you iut. You’re a creepy racist too.
ReplyDelete