SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2024
"Overwhelmingly voted," he says: The letter appears in today's New York Times.
It comes from a reader in Seattle. Here's what the letter says:
To the Editor:
Mark Twain said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” Were he alive now he would likely add polls to this list.
Once again pollsters were egregiously wrong in predicting the outcome of the election. They told us that it was a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, right up to the morning of Election Day. However, Americans ignored the polls and overwhelmingly voted for another four years of Trumpian chaos. Who knew that it wasn’t really a contest after all?
How long would your local TV weather forecaster keep their job if they were so consistently wrong? Borrowing from Bob Dylan, isn’t it time we finally learned that we don’t need a pollster to know which way the (political) wind blows?
That's the full text of the letter. Americans "overwhelmingly voted for" Trump, the letter overwhelmingly says.
Meanwhile, back at the vote-counting stations:
In the nationwide popular vote, Candidate Trump's victory margin is moving down toward two points. Ezra Klein has estimated that it will end up at 1.5 points, and he could even be right.
By the time the votes have all been counted, Trump may not even have 50 percent of the nationwide vote. But in Seattle, the angry excitement runs high.
Get rid of the pollsters, the Times reader says. We (or possibly they) the people "overwhelmingly voted" for Trump!
Also this: The next letter writer is all-knowing too.
His letter was written right there in Gotham. It goes exactly like this:
To the Editor:
The fact is that America is not voting for a Black woman president—but no one is going to say that to a pollster or an interviewer. “He gets me” sounds much better.
We're not quite sure what that last sentence means. But that's the full text of the letter.
Is "America" going to vote for a Black woman president? Not necessarily, no—at least not in every case.
But in this instance, more than 70 million Americans did that very thing. And as the votes keep getting counted, the number continues to rise.
These are Great American Novels. We humans are wired for the writing of such novels, but also for the subsequent act of putting such novels in print.
These are explanations for an event, not novels. People of course try to explain their world because that offers some measure of control, protection against capricious events. Demeaning these explanations as fiction is wrong of Somerby. It is likely that some part of each of these explanations is partially true, but none of the letter writers (or the many experts weighing in on what happened) intends their suggestions to be fiction (novels, stories).
ReplyDeleteDoes it make Somerby feel superior to pretend that he is better than these others because he offers no explanation at all, no analysis, no theories? Living like that leaves the hard thinking to others, while Somerby perhaps floats along the surface taking what comes. That is the ultimate abnegation of responsibility for any and all things. But he shouldn't be looking down his nose at those who do try to understand their lives. His tone suggests he is doing that today.
If the hard thinking is also incorrect thinking, does it retain its praiseworthiness?
Delete“But he shouldn't be looking down his nose at those who do try to understand their lives. His tone suggests he is doing that today.”
DeleteShe may say that “His tone suggests [weasel word] that he is doing that today”, but anonymouse 12:12pm is actually accusing him of it.
I’d give a kidney if only once Bob would reply, “Bite me,”
12:12 gets it about right, so of course the whining starts from the tragically misguided fanboys/trolls, bless those delicate little snowflakes.
DeleteSomerby’s thinking is incorrect too.
DeleteAnonymouse 3:09pm says, , “…gets it about right”. Weasels.
DeleteCecelia, people use language with some wiggle room because we live in a probabilistic world where there are not absolutes. When you hear people talk about black and white, concrete thinking, that is the opposite, but that is what you are insisting upon with this carping about "weasels". Even Somerby says "anything is possbile." There is a sweet spot in thinking that is close to reality without being so absolute it neglects the possibility of being wrong.
DeleteAnonymouse 3:55pm, there’s a difference in wryly commenting “anything is possible” [shrug], from anonymices spraying a spritz of cheap perfume in order to mitigate the effect of their flatulence.
DeleteYou have no idea whether Somerby was wry or shrugging.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:03pm, yes, I do and you do too. It’s a device he uses on his blog to suggest he is open to debate.
DeleteI miss the non-weasel, who knew that Republican voters only really care about bigotry and white supremacy.
DeleteHere is an example of what the rest of us have been talking about here:
ReplyDelete"Donald Trump's presidential transition team has already hit its first bump in the road after he won re-election Tuesday, reports the New York Times.
At issue is a failure to turn in paperwork –– now over a month overdue — that would clear the path to the turnover of sensitive documents which would allow the incoming administration to hit the ground running after the former president returns to the Oval Office.
That paperwork includes a "legally required ethics pledge stating that he will avoid conflicts of interest and other ethical concerns while in office" the absence of which has caused progress to come to halt.
According to the report from the Times' Ken Bensinger, the failure to address the impasse has the potential to put America's security at risk.
Reporting, "While the transition team’s leadership has privately drafted an ethics code and a conflict-of-interest statement governing its staff, those documents do not include language, required under the law, that explains how Mr. Trump himself will address conflicts of interest during his presidency," Bensinger added, "The Trump transition’s ethics documents are silent on the question of Mr. Trump’s ethical conduct."
As it stands now, the administration of President Joe Biden is legally prohibited from providing the former president's transition team with classified intelligence and national defense briefings,
The report adds that the missing paperwork also blocks Trump's people from the "physical access to the 438 different federal agencies that they will soon control, and it cannot allow them to review their files." [Rawstory]
This is what happens when you elect a convicted felon who has already stolen hundreds of classified documents upon leaving office, and whose reason for occupying the presidency is solely to grift.
I was reliably told Kamala was BRAT and this would deliver a victory especially after voters got a look at the whimsically joyful and entirely organic purchase of Doritos in a convenience store.
ReplyDeleteNailed it. Are there any more details on the size of Arnold Palmer's schlong? Because that's a subject MAGA seems to find fascinating.
DeleteBob is exaggerating the polls’ accuracy by focusing on the nationwide popular vote. People are right to criticize the polls.
ReplyDeleteMost polls predicted a close race in terms of electoral votes, not a blowout. And that late Iowa poll showed Harris up by 3 percent; she actually lost by 9 iirc.
"Most polls predicted a close race in terms of electoral votes."
DeleteI don't think so. "Most" polls didn't attempt that task. Why not? Because to predict the electoral college, you need a separate poll for each state--or at least for the states we anticipate might favor either candidate. (I suppose it would be pointless to query the voters of Alabama or California as we can predict those without a poll.)
Each separate poll has its own probability of error. When you aggregate separate polls, you compound the probability of error for the combined result.
Most of the electoral college predictions we saw ahead of this election weren't actually polls, but a conglomeration of polls, each susceptible to its own errors.
Where were you with these insights before the voting?
DeleteI don't trust the results. Rachel Maddow strongly informed us that Ann Selzer's poll showed a coming landslide for Kamala. She taught us how the poll is the "gold standard" according to experts. We know Rachel and experts are extremely intelligent and insightful, much more knowledgeable and educated than we, so I am confident Kamala Harris won the election.
ReplyDeleteYou can’t just reference Maddow’s take on the Selzer poll, you have to watch her in order to wonder how even liberals can stand her condescension.
Deletehttps://x.com/langmanvince/status/1854720266825330933?s=42&t=oYvKLjVc8YzJIvwKoQTYBQ
Liberals don't see her as condescending. Maybe we are less insecure about our intellectual ability that you guys are.
DeleteAnonymouse 3:52pm, no, you’re more in need of a mommy.
DeleteNo actual woman would say that. To women, mommies are a good thing, not the basis for a derogatory remark or putdown.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:01pm, sure. So you’ve found the one actual woman in the world who will tell you that you obviously need a mommy figure. Saying that doesn’t denigrate mommies, it accurately describes your devotion to your mommy figures of which there are several.
DeleteLiberals think she's intelligent and insightful. Normal people just watch her and, bored and distracted from her vapid emissions,, wonder if the neck and head being the same thickness is a part of a syndrome that made her so stupid yet smug.
DeleteDonald Trump's outright contempt for Republican voters is easily the best thing about him.
Delete
ReplyDeleteFull of joy and hope, I am shaving my head in protest.
What an ass Somerby is.
I am Corby.
Women, serious feminists, are giving up men in protest. That won’t affect Somerby.
DeleteThey get more cats.
DeleteWhy didn't the Dems steal this election too?
ReplyDeleteBecause they are losers.
DeleteWring answer. Biden is prez, remember?
DeleteSo they weren't losers in 2020 when they supposedly stole the election?
DeleteThey were losers in 2020 too. Thieves are losers. Always.
DeleteThe GOP got stabbed in the back in 2020. Just like Germany did after WWI.
DeleteNo point evaluating poll accuracy until all the votes are counted, Somerby sez. Duh, but you can still talk about broader results. Somerby it nitpicking to attack Morning Joe. Why?
ReplyDeleteIs it nitpicking to challenge the central assumption of a commentary? In this post, Our Host cites several observers who proclaim that "The Polls Were Wrong!"
DeleteThe truth is, we can't tell yet whether the polls were wrong or not.
He is challenging on the basis that the vote count is incomplete, not the reasons you state below, which are astute. Somerby doesn’t understand polling or surveying and seemingly would throw out the polls as a source of understanding.
DeleteMaybe you can be more specific, @4:59. I don't see what you see in this post. Where does Our Host suggest throwing out polls as a source of understanding?
DeleteRepublicans are having a hoot, they are sending text messages to Blacks across the nation, saying they are mandated to report to a nearby plantation to start picking cotton.
ReplyDeleteThey are laughing their asses off and out of their minds gleeful they can now freely engage in this sort racist intimidation.
It will be interesting to observe the Republican Party as it twists and turns in it's death spiral.
Anonymouse 3:17pm, with all the criticism expressed yesterday about black and Hispanic men being misogynists who wouldn’t vote for a woman, why would you assume that it’s not an angry Democrat/s?
DeleteOr a crafty Democrat. Messages like that would tend to motivate recipients to go out and vote for Harris.
DeleteDon’t forget that the demand for racism exceeds the supply. So fake racism is common.
Nope. The messages were sent AFTER the election. So once again you're commenting on something you don't know the first thing about.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy93dp4zk3o
Thanks for the correction @6:55. The messages were appalling.
DeleteThe messages went out after the reporting of voter demographics as to the candidates.
DeleteThe messages were a Democrat hoax as usual.
DeleteStop the Steal!
DeleteThat'll teach Biden-Harris for not having open borders.
DeleteToo many people put too much faith in polls without understanding how they are conducted and what their potential shortcomings are.
ReplyDeleteWere the polls "wrong"? That depends on what "wrong" means. If the question means, "Was the poll result different from the actual outcome of the election?" then yes, the poll was wrong. And pretty much every poll ever taken was wrong to some degree. Does the question mean "Was the data sample not representative of the entire electorate?" The answer is maybe. Sampling of voters isn't a simple, straightforward task. What steps can a pollster take to make sure the voting sample isn't biased in some way? That's not easy to answer.
The result of a poll should be read to say something like this: "We can report that there is a 90 percent probability that the proportion of the voters polled who favor candidate X is within 3 percent of the proportion of the whole voting population that favors X. This assumes that the sample is not biased in some way that may be undetected by the pollster."
That leaves lots of room for the poll to describe an outcome that differs from what eventually happens.
Kamala’s main issues were all fake.
ReplyDelete— she was pro choice, which is great. But the President will not affect abortion. It’s now a state matter. I wish some of her billion dollar war chest had gone to Florida’s reform proposition.
— Trump is a fascist. Nobody really believed he would or could cancel elections and become a dictator.
— She said she’d reform the government, but said she didn’t disagree with any Biden policy.
His party will make abortion illegal federally. Not that I don't appreciate you playing a moron on the internet, but at least try not to make it look so obvious.
Delete-----
It just goes to show you, taking Republicans serious is NEVER a good idea. The Dems fucked themselves, by believing giving the Republicans the Hyde amendment would keep them from going after abortion.
Here's my main issue, Dickhead. Donald J Chickenshit is a criminal. He lied to and caused others to lie to the FBI repeatedly. And now you want to put him over the FBI/DOJ. Fuck you.
DeleteThe grand jury issued a subpoena requiring TRUMP to turn over all documents with classification markings. TRUMP endeavored to obstruct the FBI and grand jury investigations and conceal his continued retention of classified documents by, among other things:
a. suggesting that his attorney falsely represent to the FBI and grand jury that TRUMP did not have documents called for by the grand jury subpoena;
b. directing defendant WALTINE NAUTA to move boxes of documents to conceal them from TRUMP’s attorney, the FBI, and the grand jury;
c. suggesting that his attorney hide or destroy documents called for by the grand jury subpoena;
d. providing to the FBI and grand jury just some of the documents called for by the grand jury subpoena, while claiming that he was cooperating fully; and
e. causing a certification to be submitted to the FBI and grand jury falsely representing that all documents called for by the grand jury subpoena had been produced—while knowing that, in fact, not all such documents had been produced.
8:15: You are going to have to find a better way to cope. All of that is over. That case was dismissed and Jack Beardo Smith dropped all the other charges. You're acting like a child. You're making arguments that are moot as a way to cope. Try to man up. Try to cope. I don't want to hear from you again.
DeleteWhy was it dismissed, maggot?
Delete9:26 I'm going to need you to man up and cope. Asking why it was dismissed is not effective or realistic coping. Scapegoating isn't coping. Let's try to be a man, be strong, admit we've lost and pick ourselves up off the mat and be honorable in defeat.
DeletePlease don't tell me you fell for the "Republican Party is the party of law and order" shtick.
DeleteThis is another example of what maggots don't give a shit about. They want a dictator. That's all I am saying. Embrace it, maggot.
DeleteC. The Defendant Aimed Deceit at the Targeted States to Alter Their Ascertainment
and Appointment of Electors
Shortly after election day, the defendant began to target the electoral process at the state
level by attempting to deceive state officials and to prevent or overturn the legitimate ascertainment
and appointment of Biden’s electors. As President, the defendant had no official responsibilities
related to the states’ administration of the election or the appointment of their electors, and instead
contacted state officials in his capacity as a candidate. Tellingly, the defendant contacted only
state officials who were in his political party and were his political supporters, and only in states
he had lost. The defendant’s attempts to use deceit to target the states’ electoral process played
out in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as across these
and other states that used certain voting machines. In addition to the following evidence of the
defendant’s conduct during the charged conspiracies, at trial the Government will elicit testimony
from election officials from the targeted states to establish the objective falsity—and often,
impossibility—of the defendant’s fraud claims. Notably, although these election officials would
have been the best sources of information to determine whether there was any merit to specific
allegations of election fraud in their states, the defendant never contacted any of them to ask.
All you are saying is magats want a dictator based on an indictment from a dismissed cased brought by a partisan prosecutor? That's idiotic.
DeleteAll I am saying is that you maggots want a dictator based on the fact that you support a fascist who couldn't spell Constitution if his fat corrupt ass depended on it.
DeleteWhy was the case dismissed, maggot? Was it because the charges were not supported by the evidence? Or was it because a maggot judge in Florida couldn't handle the case?
Delete"Let's try to be a man, be strong, admit we've lost and pick ourselves up off the mat and be honorable in defeat."
DeleteExactly, And we have the example of the GOP in 2020. As hard fought as that election was, they didn't whine, they didn't say there was cheating, they didn't have mobs marching in the streets chanting "Stop the Steal."
They accepted defeat with admirable stoicism and we should try to emulate their example.
Q. How many Right-wing accusations are really just confessions?
DeleteA. All of them, Katie.
For years, almost 100 percent of responses here are absolutely pathetic whataboutism. If Repubs whined, said there was cheating and marched the streets chanting "Stop the Steal" in 2020, it doesn’t counter the idea of Democrats behaving honorably in their recent defeat. Are all of you 12 years old? You reason like it. If you're not 12 years old, you should consider stopping reasoning like one, because it hasn't helped you and will not help you in the future. If Trump did something sleazy, it doesn't take away your responsibility for not doing something equally sleazy.
DeleteThat argumentation tactic, designed to avoid accountability, HAS GOT TO GO. For your own good!
"For years, almost 100 percent of responses here are absolutely pathetic whataboutism."
DeleteIf someone is trying to choose between two options, and someone points out that one option has a certain downside to it, it's perfectly valid reasoning to point out that the other option has a much greater downside. You can lazily repeat the word "whataboutism" as many times as you like, but it doesn't in any way invalidate this kind of reasoning. Imagine someone trying to decide whether to eat some stale cereal or a piece of meat contaminated with salmonella. Person A: "I wouldn't eat that cereal, it's stale." Person B: "Yeah, but that meat is contaminated with salmonella." Person A: "That's just pathetic whataboutism." That's how dumb your "logic" is.
On the other hand, to try to equate the left's criticisms of Trump's horrific behavior with the right's ridiculous claims about election rigging and their violent attack on the capitol is indeed "reasoning" like a 12 year old.
To state the obvious, DIC's claims are absurdly inaccurate.
Delete5:39,
DeleteWhat the hell are you talking about? Democrats couldn't have behaved more honorably in the 2024 defeat. They conceded. Done.
For those who doubted FEMA gate.
ReplyDelete“FEMA Fires Official Who Told Hurricane Relief Workers to Skip Trump Homes”
You make it sound like that's a bad thing?
DeleteMaybe some Trump voters don't want help from FEMA, because icky government and all.
Remember way back in history (3 years ago) when many Republicans wouldn't get a vaccine to protect the lives of their fellow man?
Personally, I rather FEMA use their time and energy helping citizens of the United States of America, not someone who thinks their freedom to harm others is a protected right.
David, did you see the text message that prompted the firing?
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteThe context of the message was advising workers on how to avoid illness or injury. That included (in a longer list) a warning people to avoid people who were angry and potentially armed.
DeleteSo what happened here is that Trump's claim about FEMA became self-fulfilling. By announcing that FEMA was denying assistance to "red" districts he stoked anger against people who were there to help. in turn, it became dangerous to try to help people who needed it.
The text was sent in a group chat with 13 (!) participants. As you note, when the message was made public, the person responsible was swiftly fired. Despite the narroe reach of the message and the decisive response from FEMA, DeSantis, Gaetz, Blackburn and Lee (in Utah!) pounced quickly to announce to the world that this is an example of goverment "weaponization."
DeleteSo now the wheel gets another spin. People will become more angry and a few will feel more justified in lashing out and endangering people who are there to help.
“avoid people who were angry and potentially armed.” — that kind of sounds to me like code for Trump voters. How else would a FEMA person know if the occupants of some house are angry or potentially armed? BTW what is the meaning of POTENTIALLY armed? The only meaning I can think of is MAGA.
DeleteSo FEMA wants their members to avoid North Carolinians who are angry and heavily armed. That criteria narrowed it down Trump voters, huh? In the hills of NC?
DeleteDavid, Comma La raised a billion dollars. Literally. Where all of it went will be one of history’s mysteries, but it ain’t going into the pocket of any heavy armed and hurting NC Trump supporter.
DeleteFlorida, Cece. Otherwise, yeah. The people who had been threatening disaster workers were instigated by the Trump camp.
DeleteAnyway, now the MAGA chorus is seizing on this one stupid text to make the situation on the ground even more complicated and dangerous.
And no, David, a text message to 13 workers telling them not to get themselves killed isn't proof of Trump's stupid claims about FEMA avoiding "red" districts. The workers who recieved (and reported) this text were on the ground in a very red part of Florida.
Delete"people who were angry and potentially armed.” — that kind of sounds to me like code for Trump voters."
DeleteYou are correct!
QiB, of course they’re focusing on this text. Its sheer unabashed put-it-out-there presumption and the consequences of such thinking is indication of what has been suspected. You’re ridiculous in the insinuation that this wouldn’t a week long talking-head fest if happened under Trump. You personally would be slamming your desk with your shoe.
Delete2:48,
DeleteTry to cope.
5:21 Trump repeatedly stated as a main talking point that Venezuela was emptying its prisons and sending criminals to join massive numbers of rapists and violent offenders into the US illegally with zero evidence of such. Texas crime statistics compiled by Texas law enforcement showed year after year decreased violent crime under Biden. Trump has a history of attempting to overturn an election and watching rioters he incited batter over 140 capital police for hours without lifting a finger so you have no clue as to what he would have done as a loser. Highly decorated military members of his administration described him as a fascist. Your opinion that he isn't, against these honorable men who had close working contact with him is of miniscule credibility. Harris did not make government reform a central part of her campaign.
ReplyDeleteToo bad Dems have no values, don't stand for anything and ran such a shitty, joke of a candidate against him.
DeleteToo bad white men were so upset about losing their jobs to immigrants because they can't compete in an open market, they elected someone who has outright contempt for them.
DeleteRepublican voters aren't thrilled Trump is a racist, but they're willing to overlook it, because he said he will do something about all the immigrants who outclass them on the job market.
DeleteLecturing anyone about values is not a winning hand for Republicans , who admire an insurrectionist with the blood and injury to 140 capital police to claim as an accomplishment and whose volume and assortment of lies in route to the presidency made George Santos look like George Washington. When he cleanses himself on day one of any accountability for the empty classified documents folders in his bathroom and inciting a riot against the US over his election lies, then pardons hundreds of violent felons, capping it off with attempting to hand a win to his buddy Putin, he will be well on his way to displacing the current occupant of what large panels of historians rank as the worst president in history , namely himself.
DeleteThen take a break from the chronic and embarrassing whataboutism and tell me what values Democrats stand for.
DeleteDemocrats are the party of insecure white college graduates who have no idea how dumb they are.
DeleteWill white people ever stop making this world a worse place?
DeleteI wouldn't bet on it.
7:58,
DeleteWho cares what they stand for?
What matters is what people feel they stand for.
This country is being run based on feelings, not reality. That should have been obvious when the Right started their crusade about how feelings weren't important.
"Too bad Dems have no values, don't stand for anything..."
DeleteWho knew the Democratic Party doesn't stand for open borders?
Narrator: Everyone.
White people know they can't compete with immigrants on the job market, so they are trying to use the law to hurt immigrants, so white people get the jobs, instead.
DeleteSort of like Bob's theory about how Democrats knew they couldn't beat Trump at the ballot box, so they tried to use the law to keep him from running.
Sorry to hear about the firing.
ReplyDeleteThoughts and prayers to the person who got fired.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, trans folks are arming themselves for protection against the Trump Administration.
ReplyDeleteI always love this phrase 'trans folks' as if they're just like everyone else, just plain, regular 'ole folks who happen to insist on being the opposite of what they were born.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:04am, some new-found appreciation for the Second Amendment.
DeleteShooting fascists in the head will never be out of style.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:41pm, in the right country.
DeleteKeep posting on your blog
ReplyDeleteDevops online course in hyderabad