MONDAY: Numbers look better for congressional Dems!

MONDAY, MAY 18, 2026

Or so one survey says: Does the venerable Cook Political Report know what it's talking about?   

We can't necessarily answer your question! In Saturday's report, we came close to flipping our lid, noting that Amy Walter had told the New York Times the following, gruesome headline included:

The Midterms Ground Has Shifted

[...] 

Amy Walter: Before the court rulings, our Political Report rated 217 House districts as solidly Democratic or leaning toward Democrats and 16 seats that were tossups. In these tossup districts, each side had a 50-50 chance to win. They are seats that are the most vulnerable. Under that scenario, Democrats would need to win just one of those 16 tossups to reach a majority in the House.

Today we rate 207 districts as solidly Democratic or leaning toward Democrats and 18 as tossups. To win a majority, Democrats need to win at least 11 of the 50-50 contests (and hold all those leaning their way) in order to get a majority.   

According to Walter, the recent pair of high-profile court decisions had caused the ground to shift. Given the realities of Gerrymandering Past, and allowing for the likely shape of post-Callais Gerrymandering Future, the Cook Report found itself forced to slice the dogmeat remarkably thin.

Sad! Cook said the gerrymandering would leave only 18 seats—out of 435!—that they would rate as toss-ups. And yikes:

To squeak by with control of the House, Dems would have to win 11 of those seats in the fall.   

Does that assessment make sense? We ask because a new survey by the New York Times / Siena seems to be more optimistic. 

According to the new Times / Siena survey, the president's approvals are down to the lowest point yet. And then too, there's also this:  

A Crack in the Polling Floor Puts Trump in New Territory 

[...]

The most immediate political consequence is that Democrats appear increasingly well positioned for the midterm elections in November. The poll shows Democrats have a double-digit lead, 50 percent to 39 percent, when registered voters are asked which party’s candidate they’ll support for Congress. That’s a notable shift from Times/Siena polls earlier this cycle—which showed Democrats up two to five points.  

The Times is reporting a major advance in that statistic. Does that mean that Cook somehow has it wrong? 

At this site, we have no idea—and as we mentioned on Saturday, no one knows what kinds of schemes the White House may drag out if November is approaching and the numbers look bad. Beyond that, our guess would be this:

As a society, we've largely skated past the point where it can be assumed that traditional patterns will obtain in matters like this. We'll guess that no one can really say what's will happen this fall.

Dems have been winning special elections. But November's elections will involve incumbents, and that may help Republicans hold on to Republican-friendly seats. 

Or not!  We wish that Walter, who is perfectly sharp, had been questioned a bit more about the fundamentals behind Cook's gloomy findings.

For what it's worth, polling outfits have recently reported some gloomy numbers in the "which party do you favor" sweepstakes. Here was Harry Enten reporting a "Big Time Reality Check:"    

CNN’s Harry Enten Serves ‘Big Time Reality Check for Democrats’–Even Amid Trump’s Falling Poll Numbers

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten presented numbers that may worry Democrats, even amid President Donald Trump’s sinking approval ratings.

On Tuesday’s CNN News Central, John Berman cited a CNN survey where more than 70% blamed the president for increased costs, and asked Enten if Democrats were benefiting from such numbers. According to the poll, 77% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs of living.

“I think this poll serves as a big time reality check for Democrats, and that is it ain’t over yet, especially with the redistricting when we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress. You would have thought that the Democrats’ lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot. It didn’t happen,” Enten reported.   

And so on from there. 

The Dems' lead on the generic congressional ballot had slipped from six points all the way down to three! As its report continued, Mediaite reported more of what Enten had gloomily said:   

[John] Berman later asked why Democrats aren’t “benefitting” if Trump’s numbers are falling amid the Iran war and high costs.

Enten reported that Trump’s approval rating is 36 points underwater on average, but Democrats are tying him in their own approval rating in surveys.

“There’s no way! There’s no way Republicans could possibly hold onto the House! But look at this: Which party is trusted more in the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat [on the economy],” Enten said.  

Every poll is just one poll, and every poll is inaccurate to greater or lesser degree. Also, Enten can be a bit excitable—but in late April, a voluminous Harvard-Harris survey even came out saying this:   

Support for Democratic, Republican candidates tied among likely voters ahead of midterms: Poll   

Support for Democratic and Republican candidates is evenly split among likely midterm voters, according to a new poll. 

The Harvard-Harris poll found that 50 percent of likely voters said they would support a Democratic candidate and 50 percent said they would support a Republican.  

And so on from there. Harvard does it again!

This is a very challenging time. We only bring this up today because we reported what Walter said over the weekend. (Walter is perfectly sharp.)

For reasons we've mentioned in the past, this is a very dangerous time. We'd tend to offer this advice:   

Blue Americans, do no harm!