THURSDAY, JULY 30, 2026
That's what the Cook Report says: We Blues! Our tribunes keep stressing the president's approval numbers. Pleasingly, those numbers just keep getting worse.
That said, the president isn't running for Congress this fall—and the Cook Political Report has just unveiled a discouraging assessment concerning the race for control of the House.
Did the GOP win this year's mid-census redistricting wars? Here's the start of Alex Griffing's report for Mediaite:
Cook Political Predicts GOP Took 12 House Seats From Dems With Trump’s Gerrymander Push
Dave Wasserman, the senior editor and elections analyst for The Cook Political Report, released a deep-dive assessment on Wednesday on the state of play for the House following the unprecedented mid-decade gerrymandering by several states ahead of the midterms.
[...]
Wasserman crunched the data and came up with the definitive number for how the gerrymandering wars, which spread to ten states in total from Florida to Utah to Ohio, impacted the House map overall...going into November.
At that point, Griffing's language gets a bit technical. You can examine his report for yourself, but it looks like the Cook Report says the redistricting wars most likely resulted in a significant improvement for Republican prospects.
In Wasserman's assessment, redistricting would seem to have cost the Democrats twelve seats. That leaves Democrats poised for a narrow win in the race for the House, as opposed to a larger projected win if redistricting in the various states hadn't occurred.
Obviously, that's a projection—an educated assessment. Also, it seems to us to be extremely bad news.
Whatever the facts of the matter might be, Dr. Fauci is now being demonized to produce a new talking point for the party which currently lacks them. The nuttier planks in the DSA platform are being put to use the same way.
“ Democrats poised for a narrow win in the race for the House”
ReplyDeleteAfter asking “ Did the GOP win the redistricting wars?”
Win = lose I guess. Is this 1984?
JFC, but you people couldn't win an IQ contest if your opponent were a rock.
DeleteYes, a rock would describe the cognitive of Trump, Tuberville, Johnson, and their ilk.
DeletePlease please please, say the GOP. Make sure the democratic candidates in those redrawn districts go around saying that Trump is mentally ill, but they surely pity him. It’s electoral GOLD!
ReplyDeleteAngry Bob: Republicans are deeply unpopular, Trump is a mess and he is ruining the GOP - I need to cope.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteUnless Safeguard American Voter Eligibility bill is passed, signed, an implemented, the election needs to be cancelled this year.
We don't need illegals electing the Congress. The rigged election disaster in 2020 was quite enough.
You’re a good, decent person.
DeleteYou're a good, decent person, for a Republican. FTFY
DeleteAre you saying only card-carrying Republicans want clean elections? That's stupid. Are you a Dumbocrat?
DeleteAs with the idiot Arizona Ninja's (who found 13 more votes for Biden after trashing all election equipment and laws), and after 60+ lawsuits, you don't have any receipts you dumb ass maggot. How's that new forever war in Iran working out for you, you fucking clown?
DeleteHey dumbass at 2:29 - you are too dum (many people think there is no B in dum I'm told) to even know the name of the bill you are pimping like a regular two year old?
DeleteWhere have all the massage parlors gone?
ReplyDeleteGood, decent persons stay away from massage parlors.
DeleteWhere have all the black people behind Von Shitzhizpantz's rally stage gone. They don't need the negro no mo?
Delete"Whatever the facts of the matter might be, Dr. Fauci is now being demonized to produce a new talking point for the party which currently lacks them."
ReplyDeleteDemonized? Are you a total Dumbocrat, Bob? The evidence is clear, it's in the public domain: Dr. "Mengele" Fauci diary, his communications with his Mob, his public pronouncements.
On which planet presenting hard cold facts amounts to demonizing? Must be the infamous Dumbocrat planet. Is that where you are?
You’re a good decent person.
DeleteDumbocrat. Sick burn!
DeleteGain of function research was halted by the Obama administration after the Ebola epidemic. The next administration lifted that sanction and defunded the agency monitoring the Wuhan lab. Mishandling of the COVID response cost millions of lives and specifically those who believed the rot coming out of Trump and right wing media outlets. Red voting counties had higher COVID death rates c/w demographically similar blue counties. And now right wingers are found to have worse health outcomes felt due to their increased skepticism about traditional medicine ( recent Nature article ).
DeleteTrump = cost millions of lives during covid
DeleteFauci = saved millions of lives during covid
Who to trust? Who to trust?
This is why it is important to Somerby to avoid acknowledging Fauci's achievements, which are real. If he does that, he cannot slime him later without sounding ridiculous (which he does anyway).
Delete2:44,
DeleteThat makes as much sense as some woman pity-fucking a Right-winger.
Unclear what Somerby's point is here. Is he gloating? He doesn't recommend any action for Dems. Gerrymandering is obviously unfair and it is no surprise if it works as described previously. So what is the purpose of this post? Is Somerby just trying to make Blue America feel bad? Does he think this means Dems are going to lose? What is his point?
ReplyDeleteDems are winning, so this is just Somerby coping with that.
DeleteThere's a big difference, both practically and symbolically, between winning 250+ seats and winning 225 seats. This isn't a sporting event where a win's a win. You people are some of the worst Dunning-Kruger affected fuckers I've ever seen.
DeleteNo one was ever predicting 250+ seats. That has rarely happened the past 30 years. Winning 218+ seats gets you control of the House. And that is a big win.
DeleteIt's not big enough, especially with a tiny margin that can be disappeared with just a few defections on any given vote. The simple fact is, the more seats the better. Why do you people need obvious facts spoon-fed to you? Because you're too busy trying to look smart by attacking Somerby to actually think.
DeleteBTW, the Democrats won 257 seats in 2008. They passed Obamacare in 2009 in the House, 220 - 215. Every seat counts, which the Republicans -- and even Somerby -- understand better than you lot with your sneering stupidity.
DeleteBtw, the democrats are projected to win 225 seats this time. But for some reason we’re supposed to view some number less than an arbitrary symbolic number as disappointing, and a midterm win as really nothing important.
DeleteBtw, some of the recent redistricting benefited democrats, because Dems took action to try to offset the Republican redistricting. Perhaps you weren’t aware of that, 1:27.
DeleteNot "disappointing;" it's only stupid sneerers who think they're actually smart like you think there is some kind of plot afoot to demoralize the Democrats. The issue is they need as many seats as possible, both to block Trump AND as a buffer against future losses.
DeleteYou think 225 is some kind of triumph? They went from 257 seats in 2009 - 2011 to 193 in 2012. 225 isn't jackshit, especially considering a lot of those people will be moderates who can't be relied on in any risky vote. The main advantage is they will control most of the mechanisms of the House -- for now.
Which brings up the final, and in some ways, most important point: according to the analysis, it's a net -- NET, you negative IQ fuckup -- loss of 12 seats. That is a redistricting drag that affects not just this election, but future elections as well. Of all the Dunning-Kruger fuckups here -- and that's about 90% of the posters -- you're one of the worst. A real, steaming pile of intellectual shit.
9:04: Democrats currently hold 212 seats. The projection is that they will have at least 218, possibly 225. That is a gain of seats, not a loss, because, you see, 225 and 218 are both bigger than 212, so when you subtract 212 from either of those, you end up with a positive number. You don’t have to characterize it as a “triumph” (I didn’t say that, did I?), but a win is a win. But I realize it’s important to you to minimize this.
DeleteI realize now that I offended steaming piles of shit everywhere, and hereby apologize to them.
DeleteApparently, right wing trolls do not get a lunch break.
ReplyDeleteRedistricting to favor Republicans does not mean they are automatically going to win such districts. Somerby seems to be assuming that will happen, when he crows over this new analysis.
ReplyDeleteTrump is making reasonable Republicans more and more angry. It is possible they will deliberately vote Democrat as a protest vote. Voter registrations and past voting patterns are indicators but not guarantees of a Republican victory, especially since these are weird times and Trump is self-destructing and taking the Republican party down with him.
What's a reasonable Republican?. One that only rapes children over 10-years old?
DeleteThat’s just a little bit less bad than rapping children younger than ten.
DeleteRaping, not rapping, perve.
DeleteNutty or not, the DSA's platform is not the Democratic Party platform. Confounding the two is a Republican talking point that Somerby is today repeating. Mission accomplished, Bob!
ReplyDeleteDown the rabbit hole: every minor celebrity is now telling the media whether they approve or disapprove of Fauci's hearing strategy. As if any of their opinions matter to anyone, especially Fauci.
ReplyDelete"Obviously, that's a projection—an educated assessment. Also, it seems to us to be extremely bad news. "
ReplyDeleteWhat does Somerby think should happen as a result of this "extremely bad news"? Dems may lose Alabama again! The Horror! Were any Dems counting on winning Alabama?
Oddly, Somerby ignores that analysts are still projecting the Democrats to win the House, despite these attempts to fix red states via gerrymandering. How can that be possible? Oh, yeah, there are other states in play too.
America still wants to know about Epstein, still wants to lower inflation, still wants to lower unemployment, still wants to end our involvement in conflicts and wars.
ReplyDeleteThat is why Republicans will struggle to get votes.
The clown show they have displayed this week will further cement their colossal defeat in November, along with the tanking popularity of their version of Jim Jones, who they apparently fear more than losing.
DeleteA recent NBC News national survey found that only Iran is less popular than the Democratic Party among U.S. voters.
Deletehttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-majority-voters-say-risks-ai-outweigh-benefits-rcna262196
I hope you are right as a lifelong Democrat. I think we will take the House with no problem. But we have to keep in mind that the American people absolutely detest the Democratic Party.
fuck off, maggot breath
DeleteThe Democratic party is unpopular for good reasons, including the dumping of Biden, positions on Israel/Gaza, and its failure to contain Trump's destruction and fight back against Republicans. That doesn't mean that Democratic candidates are viewed unfavorably too. Individuals running for office have their own distinct polling. People are voting for specific representatives, not necessarily for a party, unless they are very low information voters.
DeleteMeanwhile, Republicans have worked very hard to make sure voters detest Democrats -- conflating Satan with blue voters and so on. If you ask anyone exposed to right wing propaganda that is what you are going to get back. On the other hand, on the generic ballot, Dems are way ahead of Republicans. So, what to believe? I wouldn't trust any statement about Democrats made by a Republican, including Somerby.
People hate both parties. Right now, more Americans view Republicans favorably than Democrats. We just need to remember how deeply we are hated by the American people. Biden for example, Harris too. People made it very clear that they really despised both of them. Biden being the most unpopular United States President at the time. As Democrats, we tend to focus on how bad Trump and Republicans are. And that's pretty much the low-hanging fruit. What's harder to address and to be realistic about, is how bad we are. How much we are hated and how unpopular we are.
DeleteLet's be honest, as Democrats, we've made a lot of huge mistakes. To me, it doesn't make sense to be unrealistic about it or candy coat it. We are unpopular for a reason. Wouldn't you agree?
DeleteFuck off, maggot breath
DeleteIt may make sense to just start a new party. The DNC is completely broke. They have no money at all. People hate us. We've lost so many big elections that should have been easy to win. And we're more unpopular than even Republicans. We don't have a true leader. None of the people at the top are inspirational. We don't have an economic policy. We're beholden to corporations. We don't have any values or reasons to get excited about us.
DeleteI mean other than that, everything is great. But, you know. The American people have made it clear: they HATE us.
Thank God we're only in a race to be the lesser of two horrible choices.
The responses show that we can't defend our unpopularity. Anybody that speaks any discouraging words, even though they are realistic, is labeled a maga! I mean, we're kind of pathetic. What happened to us?
DeleteI'm not sure what the answer is. If we can't change after losing to Trump twice, then what good are we?
DeleteIn the midterms, we should be fine though.
DeleteIt takes a special kind of dumb fuck to lose a war to Iran, but I’m sure republicans will weather the storm nicely
DeleteThis is idiotic. Biden’s presidency was awesome. Democrats did that.
DeleteIf only Trump wasn’t such a corrupt greedy thief he could be celebrating his fucking criminal unethical lawyer getting voted in as AG
DeleteAmericans love a winner.
DeleteThat's why more and more love Iran every day.
We shouldn't neglect to be honest about our own shortcomings and unpopularity. Democrats think Biden's presidency was awesome. But he was the most unpopular president in modern American history at the time. The American people hated him. And they hate us. Trump is more popular than the Democratic party! We need to reflect on these mistakes.
DeleteWhat has reading all these blogs that go on and on every day about how bad Trump is gotten us? Nothing really. It's not that hard to figure out how bad Trump is. I mean it's obvious to the whole world. There's nothing we can do to change it. Why not focus on why we are so unpopular? And what our shortcomings may be and how we could correct them?
DeleteWhen the best thing you can say about the Democratic Party is they poll more favorably than the police and our military, you aren't saying much.
DeleteWe don't give people a reason to like us or support us.
DeleteMaybe the Dems can change their name to "The Illegal Immigrant Party", so they can get hired by corporate America.
DeleteWe are not taking away healthcare to fund forever wars and tax cuts for the wealthy. Get the fuck out of here with your bullshit.
DeleteIt's like, somewhere along the line we got the idea that if we were to only talk about how bad Trump sucks, people would think that that means that we are good. But that has not worked out.
DeleteAll we do is point out how bad he sucks all the while we are sucking just as much, obviously, slightly less, but sucking enough that people hate us. And it cannot be understated how much the American people despise the Democratic party and liberals.
If you think the Democratic Party is against forever wars and doesn't fund them, you're wrong. You have to be honest with the reality of the situation and not go out into dreamland, which is exactly where your statement comes from. As Democrats, we have to stop living in dreamland!
DeleteIt's like we're all on marijuana or pot.
The Democratic Party needs to replicate Joe Biden's landslide victory over Trump in the 2020 Presidential election.
DeleteEveryone already knows Trump sucks.
DeleteHe's the head of the Raping Children Party, ferchrissakes!
6:51,
DeleteShould Dems rape children, to try to win the Republican voters over?
“Right now, more Americans view Republicans favorably than Democrats.”
DeleteUntrue. They’re equal. Get your facts right.
This place has turned into a sewer with all these maggot trolls
Delete6:52,
DeleteOh yeah! That was an ass-whipping.
It's no wonder Republicans threw a childish temper tantrum at the United States Capitol, just because black people's votes counted in that election.
6:54 what do you mean?
Delete“Trump is more popular than the Democratic party!”
DeleteAlso untrue. His favorability bottoms out at 32%.
Biden's curb-stomping of Trump in the 2020 Presidential election, is still the odds on favorite to win the Espy for "Best Thing to Happen This Decade".
DeleteNothing is more beloved in this country than abortion.
DeleteYou can debate the fine points, but the Democratic Party is without question extremely unpopular. What can we do about that? What are we doing about that? Why are we so unpopular?
Delete7:04,
DeleteOver Iran winning the War on Day One?
I'm sorry, but this country is fucked.
Agree.
DeleteIran winning the war on Day One was way better than watching those pathetic snowflakes on the Right cry in public because black people's votes counted in an election.
Trump surrendered to the Taliban. He should just get it over with (now six months in and everything still going to shit) and surrender to the Persians. His only strength is giving up on hard problems. Another useless fat fuck boomer child fucker.
DeleteHe’s definitely not giving up on stealing $2 billion tax dollars from the American people
DeleteThe Democratic Party may well be unpopular. Democratic candidates as individuals, however, are kicking ass and taking no prisoners. Let us know the next time there is an election and the Democratic Party is on the ballot. In the meantime., voters in special and state elections have spoken in the last year and and told the Republican candidates to fuck off, in general.
DeleteThe Democratic party is incredibly unpopular. Just as unpopular as President Trump, maybe a little more so. But they're great. They're kicking ass in special elections. They are using courts and legislative tricks to block citizen initiatives, sure. They used lawfare to try to beat Trump instead of beating him politically. It's a little sleazy but this is politics. A lot of things have backfired for them. Biden's border policy. Abandoning the working class. Etc. Basically they're Reagan Republican with a fetish for transvestites. People do hate them. They are in bed with the CIA and the security state. But, their focus is on making the lives of the people of this country better., providing medicare for all and taxing the rich. No, they have had no success at any of those things and they never will. But it just feels good to know how much they care and how good they are.
DeleteThink about how fired up and inspired the American people are at the prospect of Kamala Harris running for president again. It's palpable, the feeling.
DeleteOh you poor thing. Don't like losing? Cry us all a river in November. Your party is filled with pedophile enablers and boot licking closet dwelling cowards. Maybe they can drag this Fauci obsession out for another couple of months, it's such a popular crusade they are on.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteShocking! Absolutely shocking. In a new poll conducted for CNN Democrats have an 8 point lead in the midterms against Republicans on a generic ballot and among highly motivated voters, a 20 point lead. Democrats are characterized as “the party of change” while the Republicans are known as ” the party of bullying an 85 year old respected scientist while failing in every aspect of their jobs”.. Trump’s approval rating at 32% currently and plummeting should bode well for Republicans who have thus far approved of every single illegal and corrupt action taken by him.
DeleteMembers of the party who is less popular than the most unpopular president of all time are supposed to get excited about success in off-year special elections? They're supposed to be excited about winning the midterms, something that every opposition party has always done? How thrilling.
DeleteTucker Carlson and Sean Hannity getting their COVID vaccines while telling morons on the Right not to, is way more popular than the Democratic Party.
DeleteIf it wasn't for the outright bigotry of the Republican Party, their voters would think about abandoning them for running a global pedophile ring.
Delete
DeleteIf 6:47PM and 5:40AM are the same anon, go have your lithium level checked.
James Talarico, a member of that most unpopular party, is polling better than whatever piece of trash Trump picked to run, in the state Trump won by 14% in 2024. Go see your doctor. There are medications that can help you get through this.
Delete5:40,
DeleteSqueal louder, snowflake.
"Our tribunes keep stressing the president's approval numbers. Pleasingly, those numbers just keep getting worse. "
ReplyDeleteIs Somerby actually implying that we blues are being sold numbers that do not accurately reflect what is happening with voters, including prior Trump supporters. Those numbers are getting worse because Trump has been losing support. They are not fictional, just to please us blues. They are measurements of opinion by professionals with a reputation to protect, not by paid partisans. Polls have margins of error and are not perfect predictors of election outcomes but they are not shit either. When Trump's numbers decline on the same poll performed by the same people at two different points in time, it is valid to conclude that Trump's numbers are going down -- no matter what snotty remark Somerby finds to malign those who point to Trump's problems with voters.
The snotty word is "pleasingly". Why shouldn't those of us who consider Trump dangerous, a blight on our nation, a destructor, child rapist, and embarrassment, be happy to see his support diminished? Why shouldn't we be pleased by these results. It seems to me that all good decent people should feel similarly pleased, not send out warnings that gerrymandering changes everything, as Somerby does today.
Is it really Somerby's job to encourage red voters to buck up and get to the polls? That is what this gerrymandering reminder is about. It is not evidence that the polls are wrong about public sentiment about Trump, who is increasingly disliked by both right and left.
"THURSDAY: Did the GOP win the redistricting wars?"
ReplyDeleteThe redistricting wars are not over until the election results come in. Redistricting doesn't mean there are not Democrats on the ballot in each district. It means there are more registered Republicans. That will not matter if existing Republicana don't want to vote for Trump-endorsed candidates.
Proclaiming a winner or loser before the voters have the chance to make their choices is profoundly anti-democratic, but that's our Somerby.
Some of Somerby's odd essays suggest he may believe in "Epistemological Refusal: Rejection of the idea that true knowledge can be found, proven, or affirmed." This may be why he refuses to affirm obvious statements, especially as a kind of trolling of blue readers (liberals) at his blog. Somerby is selective in this, inconsistent, which suggests he is doing it to irritate readers, not to conform to an internal standard or philosophy of knowledge.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't make this tendency less destructive though. It is one of the core beliefs of certain internet nihilist groups, along with:
"Radical Skepticism: Treating all established facts, social structures, and moral laws as lies or illusions.Misanthropy and Anomie: A deep hatred for human society combined with a total lack of social or ethical rules."
Others have noted Somerby's doom and gloom perspective, his dislike of humanity, and his belief that humans are built to engage in practices such as rape (bred in the bone) and cannot participate in democracy because of our human reasoning flaws. That seems consistent with misanthropy (along with misogyny) and anomie to me.
The problem with these views is that they are also associated with dangerous online cults such as 764 or the Com Network (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Com). I wouldn't think that Somerby was capable of any of the extremism, crime and sexual predation committed by these groups (preying most on young boys), but indulging the philosophical nihilism underlying them doesn't seem healthy either.
Having a weird philosophy doesn't make someone the kind of predator who belongs to those internet cults, but it isn't exactly innocent either. Somerby might want to rethink this stuff. There are dangerous predators on the internet who might take advantage of Somerby if he leans into their nihilistic recruiting approach.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/764_(organization)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CVLT_(organization)
"The rise in ideological nihilism – or the absolute embrace of apocalyptic thinking and what is often referred to online as ‘doomerism’ – has come hand in hand with the rapid emergence of dozens if not hundreds of online antisocial subcultures which actively promote the aesthetic of nihilism and violence. The proliferation of these subcultures is by no means a new phenomenon, however, the process has rapidly accelerated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increased time spent online by many young people in particular during the initial stages of the crisis, combined with the social isolation brought about by the associated lockdowns and school closures drove some users to darker corners of social media and the internet more broadly, where they often found burgeoning niche communities eager to accept them. "
https://gnet-research.org/2022/07/13/ideological-nihilism-and-aesthetic-violence-mass-shooters-and-online-antisocial-subcultures/
I know 5'oo, Repukes are sick fucks aren't they?
DeleteTake away all their raping of children, and they're nothing but a warmed-over KKK.
DeleteArtificial intelligence is now smarter than I am.
ReplyDeleteSo is my goldfish.
DeleteYour goldfish has been smarter all along. But artificial intelligence being smarter is new.
DeleteYou frequently see anons get involved in flame wars with other anons; you frequently see anons get involved in flame wars with nyms; but you rarely see nyms get involved in flame wars with other nyms.
ReplyDeleteWe know, DG. You’re above it all.
DeleteExcept every day when you involve yourself in flame wars with anons.
But other than that, you’re absolutely right.
Why don't all of you stupid fucks fuck right off?
DeleteAn anon, proving my point.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteDavid in Cal, proving DG doesn't make sense.
DeleteDG,
DeleteDo you suggest we shouldn't call the Right "pro-life", just because there isn't an iota oof proof that they are so?
Both, David in Cal and Communists believe Trump is no more criminal and corrupt than any other business owner.
ReplyDelete