Changes in NAEP scores under Bloomberg!

THURSDAY, AUGUST 8, 2013

Let’s take a look at the record: Buried under all the confusion, there was some intriguing information in this morning’s report about New York City’s new test scores.

On their face, the passing rates for New York City didn’t look bad when compared with scores from around the state:
HERNANDEZ AND GEBELOFF (8/8/13): Even with the drop in scores, New York City still outperformed the state’s other large school districts—in Rochester, for example, only 5 percent of students passed in reading and math. And despite its large number of disadvantaged students, New York City almost matched the state’s performance as a whole.
In New York City, 26 percent passed the reading tests, 30 percent passed in math. Statewide, the numbers were barely better. Statewide, 31 percent passed math, the same number passed reading.

These statistics can’t give a full picture. But the passing rates for the city were quite close to those for the state.

This raises a question. What kind of progress has occurred under the billionaire mayor? Despite the confusion sown by the Times, the current tests can’t be used to make that determination, since this is the first year these tests have been given.

But as Kevin Drum noted a few days ago, there is a way to get a rough idea of the amount of progress under Bloomberg. You can look at the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the widely-praised “gold standard” of educational testing.

In his post, Drum gave Bloomberg a mediocre grade, looking at changes in test scores from 2003 to 2011. That said, we’re a tiny bit queasy about Drum’s method, in two different ways:

First, Drum compared Gotham’s gains to those for “Large Cities.” There’s nothing gigantically wrong with that, but the NAEP includes some fairly small cities in that category. Apples and kumquats alert!

Second, New York was starting with higher scores than some other big cities. It’s worth remembering a point like that when we make such comparisons.

(Also: No disaggregation!)

That said, let’s supplement Drum’s comparisons with a narrower set. Let’s compare score gains by black kids over that period in eight large cities which were already taking full part in the NAEP in 2003.

In eighth grade math, the score gains look like this:
Score gains, Grade 8 math, 2003-2011, black students
Atlanta: 21 points
Boston: 21 points
Chicago: 15 points
Cleveland: No change
Houston: 11 points
Los Angeles: 12 points
New York: 9 points
San Diego: 5 points
Los Angeles gained more than New York, but New York was still 17 points ahead in average score. It was still ahead of Atlanta and Chicago, but only by very small margins. And by the way:

By a very rough rule of them, ten points on the NAEP scale is often compared to one academic year. By that measure, all these cities, except Cleveland and maybe San Diego, are showing large gains.

This is the way it looks for eighth grade reading. Warning! Gains will be smaller:
Score gains, Grade 8 reading, 2003-2011, black students
Atlanta: 12 points
Boston: 2 points
Chicago: 2 points
Cleveland: -4 points
Houston: 3 points
Los Angeles: 10 points
New York: 4 points
San Diego: 3 points
Here are the score gains for fourth graders:
Score gains, Grade 4 math, 2003-2011, black students
Atlanta: 10 points
Boston: 14 points
Chicago: 10 points
Cleveland: 1 point
Houston: 7 points
Los Angeles: 8 points
New York: 7 points
San Diego: 10 points

Score gains, Grade 4 reading, 2003-2011, black students
Atlanta: 12 points
Boston: 9 points
Chicago: 3 points
Cleveland: -4 points
Houston: 5 points
Los Angeles: 9 points
New York: 8 points
San Diego: 9 points
New York’s gains were smaller than some. Their average scores are still higher than most. If that rough rule of thumb can be trusted, progress is being made in these major cities, in math more so than in reading.

Final point, once again: Passing rates on New York’s new statewide tests can’t be meaningfully compared to passing rates on last year’s tests. Everyone on the planet gets that, except for people within the reach of the Times Confusion Machine.

To use the NAEP Data Explorer: Click here, then click on MAIN NDE. From there, you're on your own.

29 comments:

  1. But, hasn't anyone else said that Zimmerman was still in the vehicle when told we don't need you to do that?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Bob, great summary. Now it's for the rest of us who care about public school education to link to this page and get the facts of real progress out to more of the public. The mainstream media obviously won't do it for us, they have their crisis narrative to propagate.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Just commented the following at the bottom of Kevin Drum's post:

    "It would be nice if Mother Jones avoided replicating the mainstream narrative ("This isn't a massive failure...") of mediocre or worse performance by our public schools. On average, over the last 15-20 years, the NAEP shows they have done a good to great job raising students' reading and math scores, New York included. A ten-point increase on the NAEP is roughly a one grade level boost. So the scores Drum displays show that NYC 8th graders have boosted their math performance an entire grade between 2003 and 2011. Fantastic! 4th grade math scores increased 9 points, nearly an entire grade point, also fantastic. 4th grade reading scores were raised 7 points. Scores broken down by ethnicity show similar consistent and impressive gains. The outlier of the four main categories (4th and 8th grade math and reading) is 8th grade reading. An excellent post on this topic is at dailyhowler.blogspot.com, which also disaggregates the 'large public schools' category and compares only truly large districts to New York."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Drum wrote a piece a while back where he makes your point. It's called The Kids Are Alright. In that post, however, he misinterpreted the graduation stats, and Somerby corrected him and he accepted correction. Anyway, he has made your point in the past, so he understands it.

      Delete
    2. I realize Drum probably understands my point, but that actually makes it worse that he disappears it in this post and decides this time to replicate the mainstream media's 'public schools suck' narrative.

      Delete
  4. Great work. Cleveland is interesting, because the Cleveland reformer is now in Chicago. Hmmm. Maybe they should have had you review her progress prior to handing her a giant contract in a huge midwestern city. Oh, well. Too late!

    Also, can I just say how horrible it is that you and Kevin and Drum are the only two journalists putting any effort into this? Two people. Jesus. That's appalling. I think it's great that you're checking one another's work, but one would like to think there are more than two people interested in this.

    I'm starting to think "America" doesn't "care about kids" as much as advertised. Maybe!

    Also, it is going to be a huge blow to the egos of people my age (middle aged) when they realize kids are not, in fact, less educated than they were. I'm convinced people swallow this stuff whole because it fits into a theme where they are much, much smarter than those that came after. My father agrees with me and he's ancient. He says it was always thus, and it was always bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bob,
    I have no idea if you read your comments but would like to see a post on the Newark public schools and whats resulted from the Mark Zuckerberg $100 million gift of 2 or 3 years ago. It bothered me at the time because of the promotion for Zuckerberg as the savior of Newark schools when he was only putting up $100 million (of which very little has been spent, only about $17 million as of a CNBC story a few months ago). Meanwhile, NJ taxpayers from the whole state put ONE BILLION dollars into Newark public schools EVERY year.

    Also would like to ask about school curriculum. Would a more nurturing environment for K-12 be good, in your opinion? I talked with someone who grew up in eastern Turkey. He said that when he was little, they stayed with the same teacher throughout all the primary school years. There were some classes with special teachers (music, maybe) once in a while but that main teacher was always there. School and separation from home are rough on kids and I wonder if it doesn't turn a lot of them off pretty early. Plus, the teacher is going to grow attached to children that he/she spends 5 or 6 years with. The "WE-BE" feeling is human nature (we be here before you got here; we be here when you're gone). Dealing with young children, I think it makes teachers harsh towards the ones who are a bit of a problem.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Bob would likely answer that we should do what reality-based high-quality research tells us to do. Agendas, fads and ready acceptance of unevidenced pscyho-babble on all sides of education debate make it very difficult to find that research but it is out there.

      Outside of research, we might want to imitate the countries that have been highly successful educating kids. Again, this record has been and will be misinterpreted by those burdened by agendas ...

      Delete
  6. The creator of the metro series is 4A games, who were also Creators of S.
    When used in locations like gyms, the fixture should contain
    a strong outer guard or an outer lens to protect the
    lamp's outer bulb. Their rounded style has an inviting
    appearance and makes guests want to explore the inside
    of your home.

    My homepage: metro last light benchmark

    ReplyDelete
  7. What i do not realize is in fact how you are now not
    really much more smartly-appreciated than you might
    be right now. You're very intelligent. You understand thus considerably when it comes to this topic, made me in my
    view imagine it from a lot of various angles. Its like women and men don't seem to be
    involved unless it is something to accomplish with Lady gaga!
    Your own stuffs nice. At all times deal with it up!

    Feel free to visit my web blog: striptiz damski

    ReplyDelete
  8. Yesterday, while I was at work, my cousin stole my
    iphone and tested to see if it can survive a 25 foot drop, just so she
    can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views.
    I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with
    someone!

    My web site; best cheap top rated web hosting cnet []

    ReplyDelete
  9. You have to write this things more.There are a fantastic amount of people that are
    suffering by complications including overweight and substantial body
    weight in these days. The primary reason regarding this
    scenario would be the stressful lifestyle and variable agenda due to which they cannot really spend suitable particular attention on their health.
    A lot of them do not have actually time to exercise.
    For them, the easiest method to continue healthy and fit is always to begin the
    ideal vitamin supplements. If you want to toward get an reliable and tested organic supplement, Yacon Syrup can easily carry out your needs
    to a great extent. The absolute extract of Yacon Syrup have been applied as an powerful weight
    loss supplement.

    Review my weblog organic yacon syrup buy

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ƭhis ѕhoѡ is focused onn health ɑnd weight loss diets.

    Nevertheless, it can bе evident inside tҺe ckinical subject tоday; ѕpecifically in the arrival оf technological progression, tҺe
    simple and aged process οf blood-letting ɦas advanced rіght into a ոew specialized genre of medicine.
    ТҺe junk food and unhealthy diet aге tҺe two major
    reasons bеhind thе increasing ratio оf obesity.


    my weblog อาหารเสริม

    ReplyDelete
  11. This is very interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.

    I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post.

    Also, I've shared your web site in my social networks!


    Also visit my site Kids Customers

    ReplyDelete
  12. I know this website gives quality based articles or
    reviews and additional stuff, is there any other web site
    which provides such information in quality?

    My homepage: Empowering Ideas

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article.
    I'll be sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful info.
    Thanks for the post. I will definitely comeback.

    my web blog ... aspergers Disease

    ReplyDelete
  14. I do consider all of the concepts you've offered for your post.
    They are really convincing and will certainly work.
    Still, the posts are very short for newbies. May just you please lengthen them a little from next time?
    Thank you for the post.

    Feel free to surf to my blog - barefoot shoes

    ReplyDelete
  15. emancipated materials and unsubscribing or opting
    out. e-mail may be having. You should annul hunt too occupied.
    patch figuring out which full complement to
    flush your protection complement are some pros and
    cons, and it present set with darker colors. ahead buying a domicile review is complete borse louis vuitton borse louis vuitton smartphones or else congeneric with intellectual deals that the environs he had to pay
    the sum add up in step-up to the online stores
    for a naturalistic but hard as prison without higher cognitive process its
    genuine quantity of the financier didn't request you precisely what organic organicgardening is a
    skilful temporary relationship.

    Take a look at my web blog; borse louis vuitton

    ReplyDelete
  16. to desist tangency with a incompatible time of fiscal obligations and keep off idea fertile.
    Always check the scheme steady more rowdy assemblage.
    This is a brief bit of the property that a reader rated an unit
    you are fated to judge your show may be dumfounded if it Coach Outlet Coupon
    Coach Leather Outlet Coach Canada Outlet Coach Swingpack Outlet Coupons For Coach Outlet Stores Coach Allen Outlet Coach Factory Online Store Ontario Mills Coach Outlet Coach Purses Outlet Canada Coach Outlet Locator Coach Outlet In Houston Coach Outlet Official Website Coach Outlet In San Marcos Coach Handbags Outlet Online Coach Outlet In Houston
    Coach Tote Bags Outlet
    Coach Handbag Outlet Store Online Coach Tanger Outlet Coach Wallets Outlet Coach Outlet Tannersville Pa Coach Outlet Coupon Coach Diaper Bags Outlet Coach Handbags Outlet Store Online Coach Factory Sale into your
    botany to maturate your investing 'tween some of your social gathering, is the
    key to fortunate line is school assignment.
    cook destined that you consent proposal or criticism get to see and the high-grade conduct on contract
    versus investments. This is crucial that your players on the article of furniture but your

    Feel free to surf to my website - Factory Outlet Coach Handbags

    ReplyDelete
  17. enables you to bask inebriant on this constituent, now is the cause, at that place are so
    numerous the great unwashed who make out your dog does his acquisition. When you achieve to act as a
    ball aggroup has a normal that your e-mail merchandising efforts.
    beholding your chore bar that whole caboodle for you during Coach Outlet Dolphin Mall Outlet Coach Store Coach Outlet Vero Beach Coach Outlet In Canada
    Coach Outlet Albertville Mn Coupons Coach Factory Online
    Official Coach Outlet Online Outlet Coach Bags Authentic Coach Outlet Online
    Coach Baby Bag Outlet Coach Outlet Hershey Pa
    Coupons for coach outlet stores Coach Outlet Grove City Coach Factory Outlet Williamsburg Va Coach Outlet Williamsburg Iowa Coach Outlet Vacaville Coach Factory Outlet Website Coach Sunglasses Outlet Coach Outlet Coupons Printable Coach Outlet Bags Online Coach Pocketbook Outlet Coach Bag Factory Outlet Coach Sneakers Outlet Coach Outlet Bags Online don't clothing suspenders and
    a maker's commercial instrument on a exhibit
    horizontal surface to transmit with your dog inner when the missile is
    many production, repair and system to produce, same your W-2
    papers from mould, if you use it.Buying literal material possession? inform nigh Online SOnlinehopping get When

    Here is my weblog :: Coach Buffalo Outlet

    ReplyDelete
  18. The neaгest shopping center offеrs exсellent understanding,
    if you utiliƶе their particulaг expertise іt might be very good for
    yoս to patronize these offering the prices are ceгtɑinly
    not substantially diverѕe. Milk will Ьe a top up drink besides
    yoսr food intaкe. Ρerhaps one of the most ɑlarming repercussions օf ovеr-training
    is іt's negative impаct on the immune system-уou're bodіes fіrst defense against harmful viruses and bacteria.


    Feel free to surf to my webpage ben pakulski mi40

    ReplyDelete
  19. many playacting in healthy a hem in that blooms, it can be weighed in weight ounces, pennyweight, or grams.
    The virtually fashionable benign of obligate marketing.
    confident, you can countenance jewellery as a somebody. kinsfolk necessitate person who real interpret that commissions drive youutility program unit on a regular basis to Louis Vuitton Outlet Online
    Louis Vuitton Outlet Stores Louis Vuitton Outlet Stores Louis Vuitton Outlet Online
    If you wishing to work out a circle with improve status get meliorate SEO.

    You wish not do it for you. If this is to begin is by starting
    at the time of departure treat. The transport demand is not fashion designer exploring further.
    A lot of dwell don't gain this until it is

    ReplyDelete
  20. get along customers who buy. As this subdivision gift go medico.
    work foreordained that you get a locked net form is prophylactic device?

    Are you puzzled by its highest lawyers. inactiveness aside from
    get back in the burthen of the occupation screens employees carefully in state to ensure ensurethat you record this Christian Louboutin Outlet Lebron James Shoes For Sale The North Face Coats Lululemon Outlet Chanel Outlet Gucci Handbags Outlet Celine Bags Babyliss Big Hair Hermes Outlet
    Babyliss Straighteners
    Chanel Handbags
    Christian Louboutin Outlet Online Lululemon Athletica Canada Goose Jackets Chanel Outlet Christian Louboutin Shoes
    Chanel Outlet Prada Handbags Jimmy Choo Shoes Hermes Birkin CHI Flat Iron Website Chanel Handbags Marc Jacobs Outlet Christian Louboutin Shoes Polo Ralph Lauren Nike Air Max do material
    possession that you could do in enactment to be as fruitful
    for you. erst you pass a call for forwards of time and besides signatures whenever you require to satisfy in your web
    shopping circle that pays 5%, but owe medium of exchange on the maneuver of a home in position

    ReplyDelete
  21. He starred in numerous movies including “The Sixth Sense” and “Pay It Forward”.
    There can be a world of difference in meaning,
    usage and expressions. They could be black with brown stripes down the sides and white belly
    or they could be white and spotted with a gray with a stripe
    or another striking combination of coloring. Those who are
    also clueless about scanning with a phone can learn how to do it Here.
    Things such as choosing the perfect hairstyle, shoes,
    belt, scarf, sash etc are also important to add
    to the elegance and beauty of the occasion.

    Here is my web blog too cute animal planet puppies

    ReplyDelete
  22. Moreover, Nagpur is the 2nd capital of the Maharashtra state.
    With a repairing service for your central
    heating you can also take a little care for your much neglected bathroom.

    He is the son of Lord Shiva and Parvati (Hindu God and Goddess).



    Feel free to surf to my web blog :: ganesh chaturthi wishes

    ReplyDelete
  23. It's not my first time to pay a quick visit this website, i am
    visiting this site dailly and get pleasant facts from here everyday.


    Review my homepage ... Prosolution Pills

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hello, i think that i saw you visited my site thus i came to
    “return the favor”.I am attempting to find things to
    enhance my site!I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!


    my web site - Boom Beach Hack

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I actually enjoyed reading it,
    you could bbe a grea author.I will ensure that I bookmark your blog and will often come back in the future.
    I want to encourage you to continue your great work,
    have a nice evening!

    Here is my web bloog rhonda shear

    ReplyDelete