THURSDAY, JUNE 2, 2022
Donald J. Trump and the border: As we noted this morning, Uvalde County voted for Donald J. Trump in Campaign 2020.
It did so by a 20-point margin! The county is three-quarters Hispanic, but Trump won going away.
What can our frequently self-impressed tribe possibly learn from such a result? We're not sure, but other such electoral results can be found on this fascinating county-by-county Texas map of 2020 election results.
As you can see by moving your cursor, Uvalde County is two counties over from San Antonio, directly to the west. As you can also see, it isn't a literal "border county"—and a raft of counties to the south and to the east, including some along the border proper, voted for Candidate Biden.
That said, other counties on the border did vote for Candidate Trump. Let your cursor do the walking! Trump won Val Verde County, hard on the border, by a solid ten points—and the county is more than 80 percent Hispanic.
We in our tribe have long advanced certain tales about future electoral success. Our thought leaders have long predicted the inevitable outcome of demographic change. Once the nation became "majority minority," we Dems would never lose!
We liberals have fed off that theory for quite a few years now. For better or worse, quite a few of our neighbors and friends—quite a few of our fellow citizens—have been walking away from their assigned roles in this morality play.
Our blue tribe needs to think about this. We need to understand the values and concerns of real people, including the many people we may not always seem to fully understand or respect.
If more Chicanos are becoming conservative voters, then why are Republicans so worried about immigrants who come from south of our border?ReplyDelete
1. Illegal immigration is against the law.Delete
2. People from all over the world are crossing the Southern border.
3. No health check for covid or any other communicable disease.
4. illegal immigration hurts poor blacks by taking away entry level jobs and driving down wages for low level jobs.
Most illegal immigration occurs when people get off an airplane and overstay their visa. Gov Abbott closed the border, searched every truck and found 0 illegals. You appear to be conflating asylum seekers (which is legal) with illegal immigration. Trump doesn’t believe in covid testing and refused it himself before a presidential debate. MAGAts are more of a risk to encounter healthwise.Delete
Immigrants getting into the country illegally, just shows how smart they areDelete
1. Unlawful entry is a misdemeanor, being undocumented in the country is not against the lawDelete
2. Perhaps a few, this is of no consequence
3. Title 42
4. False, learn to google so you can maybe stop embarrassing yourself
Your tribe, dear Bob, is a tribe of useless pencil-pushers who haven't done a day of honest labor in their whole lives.ReplyDelete
Everyone else, they may still vote for your tribe's fake "party" for a while, out of sheer stupidity, but not for long.
"Republican Hispanic Candidate Surges In Texas — Could Be First House Seat Flip Of The Year"ReplyDelete
Yes, look at the source. Gateway pundit is a conservative website. And yes, it seems to be a Republican talking point today that Hispanics are panting to become Republicans after a small Republican town that voted for Trump and where the white people all own lots of guns, did nothing whatsoever to protect their children.Delete
I don't know about you people, but as a lifelong D, I have learned to always taken the generous advice of republican ratfuckers "concerned" about the political prospects of my party. LOLDelete
More birdcage liner from DiC. Trolls gotta troll.Delete
"What can our frequently self-impressed tribe possibly learn from such a result?"ReplyDelete
OMG!!! A red state had counties that voted for Trump! Will wonders never cease?
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"We in our tribe have long advanced certain tales about future electoral success."Delete
None of this is contradicted by numbers from Texas. First, there has always been a conflict between Hispanic residents along the Texas border and immigrants coming across that border. The longstanding residents do not want to be confused with newcomers. Some are competitors and others are a nuisance or even a threat. Those crossing the border are not necessarily Mexican, as the longstanding Hispanics are, but come from other countries in Central and South America.
The Chris Cooper film Lone Star is about such tensions, and it was released in 1996.
But this territory along the Texas border is a special situation, not found in other parts of our country. And the influx of immigrants who are changing our culture, are not the landowners, business owners, and assimilated Hispanic people in small Texas towns. People like the Hispanic Republican voters in Uvalde are not numerous enough to offset the other hispanics and new immigrants who are still part of the Democratic base.
The Republicans are talking up a swing among Hispanics, but they are pointing to the same people who have voted Republican before (TX border residents and FL cubanos, wealthy hispanics), and there is no shift to justify Republican claims evident in voting patterns in 2020.
Somerby suggests that liberals are being complacent, but there are no candidates who are taking hispanic voters for granted. Every Democratic candidate with a meaningful Hispanic constituency also have staff who understand that community and workers who are addressing Hispanic concerns. So, in what way does Somerby think Hispanics are being taken for granted by liberals?
It sounds like Somerby has been drinking the Fox News and Republican party Kool-aid on this topic. And that is a sure sign that Somerby has been spending too much time consuming red tribe propaganda. Because he doesn't know what he is talking about on this subject.
Somerby is talking about this Hispanic shift to the right because Republicans are afraid that Hispanic people will look at the way the police stood by, doing nothing, while Hispanic kids were killed, and decide that authorities do not care about them, wouldn't risk their lives to save their children.ReplyDelete
Somerby may be trying to create the impression that this failure by the police in Uvalde is on Biden, instead of being caused by the largely white mayor and city council in Uvalde, who denied mental health services to a disturbed teen, restrained the Border Patrol from taking action, blamed the teachers for doors that didn't lock properly, and now are refusing to be held accountable.
No matter how much Somerby chatters, Hispanic people will vote for those who genuinely care about them and their problems, not someone like Trump -- a man who read the names of the dead children and then did a little dance at the podium. It would be hard to be more disrespectful than that -- and Hispanics are not fools.
So Republicans are talking up a groundswell in their direction, in order to forestall Hispanic flight to the Democratic party over this mass shooting -- where Republicans will do absolutely nothing to make children safer. This is what disinformation looks like. This is pure propaganda, with a tone of desperation to it.
The only question is why Somerby is spreading this filth. He must need money very badly indeed.
It also explains why Build Back Better failed miserably.Delete
Don’t be coy, Bob.ReplyDelete
If you think Hispanics voting for Republicans will make the Republican Party stop suppressing the Hispanic vote, come out and say so.
What can our frequently self-impressed tribe possibly learn from such a result?ReplyDelete
I learn that these Hispanic voters voted for guns.
Not the ones who were shot in their classroom.Delete
There's a better chance than not that the murdered teachers were totally fine with bigotry. Statistically speaking.Delete
Both teachers were Hispanic women. One had a husband on the police force. Her aunt has called for gun control. It would be unusual if either voted for Trump, given that they are educated and female — not his demographic. They died protecting poor Hispanic children, so I doubt they were bigots, as you suggest. It was bad enough they died without having some troll trash their memory.Delete
Look who's talking!Delete
Somerby and Republicans have gone on and on recently about all the dangers children face at school: learning about racial oppression, reading books about the Holocaust, learning that some people are gay; meanwhile a disturbed individual bought a military style gun and shot up a bunch of school children, while the cops stood by, no less!ReplyDelete
The mild gun controls our side suggested fell on deaf ears.
Somerby protests our side is too rough on right wingers, but it is clear that they and Somerby are more monstrous than one could imagine.
"Uvalde County voted for Donald J. Trump in Campaign 2020. It did so by a 20-point margin! The county is three-quarters Hispanic, but Trump won going away."ReplyDelete
59% of those registered in Uvalde county actually voted in 2020.
56.90% voted for Trump
42.29% voted for Biden
The difference is 14.61% not 20%.
In Uvalde itself (the city), there were three precincts: reported:
463008 with 50.73% for Biden and 47.91% for Trump
463009 with 66.13% for Biden and 32.53% for Trump
463010 with 70.74% for Biden and 29.26% for Trump
Source: Election Atlas, Map of Uvalde County
None of those results support Somerby's claim that Uvalde went for Trump by 20%, going away.
I'll bet Somerby got his stats from some right-wing source crowing about how Uvalde is Trump territory and how even Hispanic people voted for Trump. That is manifestly not true if you look at the data.
Interesting. At https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/texas/Delete
it's 59.7% - 39.4%
but at https://uvaldecounty.com/images/elections_admin/2020_general_info/2020_general_results/EV-ABBM-Cumulative_Results-11-3-2020_07-22-10_PM.pdf
it's 55.90% - 44.10%
I then you posted 56.90% - 42.29%
Maybe somebody can sort this mess out.
So in other words, a majority of the murdered children's neighbors are obsessed with bigotry.Delete
It's just another sleepy, small, South Texas town full of middle class Mexican-Americans who are totally fine with bigotry.Delete
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No, the point was that three sources have three quite different results for the election.Delete
Are you guys on drugs? Or just political kool-aid.
This comment has been removed by the author.Delete
The source for the city of Uvalde is different than the sources for the county. There is no contradiction with the city results, and they show the city much more Democratic than the county and much more Democratic than Somerby suggests.Delete
USA Today also has Somerby's numbers, like Politico, but they are also for the county not the city.
The data for Uvalde, the city, at the source cited, is what you would expect from a largely Hispanic population and it DOES NOT support the idea of a Hispanic swing to the right, nor the idea that Uvalde went for Trump.
Who knows why the county went for Trump Somerby was talking about the people of the city of Uvalde and his figures were (1) not for the city, but only for the county, and (2) wrong about how the Hispanic members of the city voted. Look at the precinct results. Even the presumably white part of the city didn't vote a majority for Trump.
Somerby has pulled a bait-and-switch using the county numbers to imply that Uvalde went for Trump, and once again, you must check his figures because he gets things wrong.
I think the different results may be snapshots at different points in time on election day, perhaps before counting of mail-in ballots or before results were final. Absentee voters tend to skew conservative.Delete
I'm not sure I understand why you think it's a bait and switch when he is clearly talking about the county, from the blog title "Texas voting, county by county!" to the text within, "The county is three-quarters Hispanic, but Trump won going away," and "As you can see by moving your cursor, Uvalde County is two counties over from San Antonio."Delete
And there's not a single mention of "city" until we get to the comments.
So the bait-and-switch actually occured in the comments. Not surprised.Delete
I called it a bait and switch because the county stats are not the same as for the city of Uvalde, which did not support Trump, but Somerby is wanting to generalize about the gun culture in Uvalde (the city) which is where the shooting happened.Delete
You may be confused because this particular essay about the county voting is a follow-on to a similar essay in which he talks about Amanda Flores and her feelings about guns, and works very hard to convince readers that Hispanics are more conservative than we think.
He says: "Also this! Is it possible that we have something to learn from the way Uvalde voted?
Uvalde County (population roughly 24,000) is 73 percent Hispanic. The bulk of the county's population lives in Uvalde City, the county seat (population roughly 15,000; 82 percent Hispanic).
Uvalde County is roughly three quarters Hispanic. We haven't been able to find reliable data concerning the way Uvalde City voted. But this is the way the county voted in the last two presidential elections:"
But the voting in the city of Uvalde is not the same as for the county. Nevertheless, Somerby talks as if it were. He pretends that Hispanics are floating toward Trump and that the people in Uvalde are not sympathetic with Democratics but are part of a gun culture themselves. Then today, he accuses the left of otherizing them -- yet these are Democratic voters, not the red tribe, and they are not sympathetic to Trump.
That is a clear bait and switch. Somerby says he couldn't find voting results for the city, but they were easy enough to find using Google. That suggests he didn't try or he didn't want to present them, because they do not support his claims about what the people living in Uvalde are like, or what their voting patterns are.
As I pointed out yesterday, the aunt of one of the teachers killed is calling for gun control. That isn't the way "the other" behave. Somerby is wrong to co-opt these people who have lost children in a terrible tragedy, to use them for his own political purposes -- promoting the idea that Hispanics are becoming red voters, when there is no evidence of that in Uvalde and they are not his pawns to use for political gain.