SATURDAY: Kilgore reported some new swing state polls!

SATURDAY, MARCH 2, 2024

Then, up jumped the New York Times: In Wednesday morning's report, we ran through some recent results from some recent "swing state" polls.

Those surveys were conducted by Emerson College / The Hill. As we noted, the gloomy results were being happily bruited on Fox, but they were going unmentioned on our blue tribe's cable news channel.

This morning, at New York magazine, Ed Kilgore has made the current situation look just that much worse.

He starts by noting that a Democrat can easily lose the Electoral College while winning the nationwide popular vote. Then, he reports some newer "swing state" results, results drawn from new surveys conducted by Bloomberg–Morning Consult.

Headline included, Kilgore reports this:

Biden vs. Trump Polls: Joe’s Battleground Problem

[...]

In the most recent batch of battleground state polls, from Bloomberg–Morning Consult, Biden trailed Trump in a head-to-head matchup by nine points in North Carolina, six points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, four points in Wisconsin, and two points in Pennsylvania. In a five-way trial heat including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, Trump’s lead ballooned to ten points in North Carolina, nine points in Arizona and (shockingly) Pennsylvania, seven points in Georgia and Nevada, and six points in Wisconsin.

At least in theory, it's a long way from here to November. That said, those are horrible results, especially when that trio of third-party attention addicts are included in the hypothetical race.

From there, Kilgore proceeds to note the "slightly less dire picture for Biden" in those earlier Emerson College polls. The picture was "slightly less dire" in those earlier surveys, but Kilgore also says this:

"Again, the indicators [were] that even in a close national race, the president is trailing significantly in the states likely to determine the Electoral College winner."

"The president is trailing significantly!" So wrote Kilgore, earlier today. 

(At the risk of creating a bit of confusion, this link takes you to a report in The Hill about those new Bloomberg surveys.)

Kilgore reported those gloomy results. Then, up jumped the New York Times, with a report about the results of its own new national survey. 

Headline included, the Times report starts like this:

Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

No doubt this is all a mistake! Can't we just get Trump thrown in jail?

It's still a long way from here to November. That said, we report these gloomy statistics in line with the old "Why did you climb Mount Everest?" bromide.

Why do we report these depressing statistics? In line with traditional journalistic practice, we report them because they're there!