SUNDAY, MARCH 3, 2024
Do polls at this point really matter? Do polls at this point really matter?
By that, we mean general election polls—nationwide surveys of the type we cited in yesterday's report.
We ask for an obvious reason. In yesterday's report, we cited the new poll by the New York Times / Siena College—and that survey has Candidate Trump ahead of Candidate Biden by five points nationwide.
Oof! This morning, the three co-hosts on Fox & Friends Weekend started their day with that survey. Last night, the routinely unwatchable Saturday Night Live cited the Times survey too.
That said, how much attention should be paid to any such survey this far from November? Before we try to answer that question, let's note the new survey by The Economist / YouGov, which Kevin Drum recommends in this new post.
That new survey has Biden and Trump in a dead heat, at 44 points apiece. Kevin cites this organization's "excellent reputation for accuracy," though it's worth noting that, under current arrangements, a Democratic candidate still seems to be unlikely to win in the Electoral College if the nationwide popular vote ends up being tied.
That said, should anyone pay any attention to nationwide polls at this point? It has been our general impression that polling at this stage of the game generally tends to hold up. That said:
Early this morning, we found this Gallup report from June 2000. It cites four previous presidential campaigns—1968, 1980, 1988 and 1992—in which nationwide polling from June of the election year failed to hold up in November.
Beyond that, we remember the way one Democratic nominee staged a massive comeback win in the nationwide popular vote, even as he allegedly ran the worst campaign in presidential history! We refer to Candidate Gore's comeback win over Candidate Bush in Campaign 2000.
How reliable are early surveys? Here's a Gallup report on the Bush/Gore polling from November 1999—exactly one year out:
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE (11/11/99): George W. Bush is also maintaining a healthy lead among voters when they are asked to vote in hypothetical general election ballots. In the most recent poll, Bush leads Gore by a 55% to 40% margin. Gore's 40% now is actually smaller than the percentage he received in May of 1998, when he got 47% of the vote against Bush. Gore did best in that May 1998 poll and in an early January poll this year (he came close to tying Bush in each), but since February Gore has dropped to roughly his current levels.
Oof! One year out, Gallup had Candidate Bush with a 15-point lead in the nationwide popular vote. By this stage in that campaign, Gallup still had Bush with a 9-point lead, as you can see in this Gallup report.
Candidate Gore went on to win the nationwide popular vote, though by a slender margin. Somehow, he managed to do that while running the worst campaign in American history, a judgment which was widely rendered within a mainstream press corps cadre which was working to ensure his defeat.
Was Candidate Gore ever behind by 15 points? There's no way to answer such questions. We mention the conduct of the mainstream press because it constitutes an astonishing historical episode—an episode very few blue tribe voters have ever heard about.
What happens within the mainstream press tends to stay within the mainstream press! Journalists and academics alike have known that no one should ever discuss the remarkable historical episode which almost surely determined the outcome of that campaign.
That said, many nationwide surveys had Candidate Bush well ahead of Candidate Gore as of March 1999. Somehow, those surveys all turned out to be "wrong," though Bush still won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
A final note about that 15-point lead in November 1999:
It was during that month that the mainstream press corps relentlessly savaged Candidate Gore for his heinous wardrobe selections:
His suits, his boots, his polo shirts? The number of buttons (three) on the jackets of his suits?
The height at which he hemmed his pants? The "earth tone" color of that one suit?
The fact that his boots were too shiny? Also, the person who had allegedly directed him to wear such heinous clothing?
According to a group assessment, this whole fandango showed that the candidate had "hired a woman to teach him how to be a man!"
That fact, along with the three-button suit, established Candidate Gore as "today's man-woman" (Chris Matthews). According to the press corps' many psychiatrists, it also showed that the candidate "doesn't know who he is" (every mainstream pundit on the face of the earth.).
So it went, night after night, within the much more concentrated world of that era's cable establishment.
During that month, there was no part of the candidate's wardrobe which didn't come in for a withering assessment—and this was from the mainstream press corps, not from "the right-wing machine." Very few liberal voters have ever heard about this astonishing press corps conduct, but this onslaught almost surely contributed to that month's 15-point deficit.
People are dead all over Iraq because those people behaved that way. Academics and journalists alike have understood that this astonishing group behavior must never be memorialized or discussed.
This studied group silence makes us think of Robert Graves' acclaimed 1934 novel, I, Claudius—much less so of The Iliad.
As for today's nationwide surveys, should Democrats pay them any mind? We'll repeat an earlier assessment:
It seems to us that, assessed by any traditional standard, Candidate Biden and Candidate Trump are both pretty much unelectable.
According to the rules of the game, one will have to get elected! In our view, it largely comes down to this:
Will President Biden be able to run a vigorous campaign? At this point, we can't answer that question.
That said, we mention the YouGov numbers today because the numbers are there.
How can Somerby write this essay about how the press was against Gore without mentioning that the press is now the main driver of the "Biden is too old" meme?
ReplyDeleteAnonymouse 10:32am, if you think Gore was a victim of media disdain, you’re more than disingenuous to deny that the media hates Trump as much as you do.
DeleteAs with Bob, the media fears that Biden can’t make it thru a campaign. They want some analysis on that before it’s too late.
Nobody hates Trump. It’s impossible to hate such a decent, kind, generous man.
Delete“The media” hates Trump? Assertion without evidence. Fox loves him (or pretends to), and Somerby pointed out all the free air time Trump used to get, because he’s good for ratings.
Delete“ They want some analysis on that ”
DeleteThe media wants some analysis? You mean, while they’re busy pushing that narrative themselves?
I don't think the two situations are comparable. I'm sorry to say- I think the comparison is wishful thinking on your part.
DeleteMedia are corporations. They generally like Republican tax policy. The depth of Trump’s psychopathy is still mostly unreported by the media, to preserve their precious horse race.
DeleteI would HOPE the media hates Trump -- or at least is committed to defeating him any way they can. He's a horrible human being and a danger to the country and world. Any decent person should be doing everything in their power to defeat him -- whatever line of work they happen to be in. The same way any decent person should have opposed Hitler, Mussolini, Putin, etc.
DeleteTrump makes them a ton of money.
DeleteIf the press had any sense of survival being repeatedly shunned by Trump as “truly the enemy of the people” would be terrifying; and they would fear him and his violent cult members. We have seen this played out dozens of times in history. Should have nipped it in the 1/6 bud, but we (Garland) hesitated. It never ends well for the reporters and the folks who are not in the cult. In the USA this cult would be the White Christian Nationalists who are as hateful of others as any fake ass Christian could be.
Delete11:52,
DeleteBetter trolling, please.
"Trump Leads Biden in Another National Poll
ReplyDeleteMarch 3, 2024 at 10:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard
A new CBS News poll finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden nationally in the presidential race, 52% to 48%.
Key takeaway: “Some of Mr. Biden’s polling deficits come from his own Democratic base being relatively more critical of him. Twice as many Democrats call Biden’s presidency fair or poor than Republicans describe Trump’s presidency that way.”
Also important: “Democrats are less likely to say they’ll definitely vote.” (This is important because pollsters may take as their selection criterion "likely voters".)
Polls have not been predicting as well as Somerby claims when he says:
"It has been our general impression that polling at this stage of the game generally tends to hold up."
For one thing, Trump has been underperforming relative to poll predictions for his primary races. He has been getting 10-15% less of the Republican vote than predicted, even in South Carolina, a red MAGA state.
Polling was not accurate in 2016 or 2020, in which polls underestimated Trump's strength:
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/
On the other hand, Trump may be underperforming now because pollsters have been overcompensating for past errors and are now overestimating Trump's strength relative to Biden and Haley, trying to fix past errors.
None of this justifies Somerby's likely overconfidence in polling results as a predictor of the election.
"It seems to us that, assessed by any traditional standard, Candidate Biden and Candidate Trump are both pretty much unelectable."
ReplyDeleteThis is a very silly statement. Someone will be elected in November, regardless of the qualifications of the two main candidates. That makes either of them electable because all it takes is to be elected.
Perhaps what Somerby means is that they are both unqualified, but that is demonstrably not true for Biden who has done so well that he was ranked 14th best president of all time, while Trump was ranked last. And Biden has been showing every day that he can and is doing the job well up to today.
The same cannot be said for Donald J. Trump, who again confused Biden and Obama in his campaign speech in Virginia. The more he talks, the worse he sounds. But Somerby is not worried about Trump's likely dementia. He is worried about Biden's vigor when campaigning.
I think part of Somerby's concern may arise from the fact that Trump is running in a contested primary against Nikki Haley (who is gaining substantial vote counts, if not winning). Trump MUST campaign actively to hold on to the nomination. Biden is the incumbent and there is no need for him to be holding rallies and giving speeches this early in the campaign. It would distract from his duties as president, which he is actively and vigorously fulfilling. Not that Trump ever did much more than watch TV and play golf while president.
So, I believe Somerby's concern about Biden is misplaced, and that Biden is the only really electable candidate in this presidential election. And if Trump self-destructs, these polls will be instantly moot, irrelevant to the task for voters of choosing the best president standing.
" That said, we mention the YouGov numbers today because the numbers are there."
ReplyDeleteWhat else is there? Average temperatures across the nation, MLB training camp pre-game scores, Dow Jones stats, TV show Nielsen ratings, covid rates, hours of daylight, etc. etc. etc. and Somerby mentions none of these.
In fact, there are new developments in Gaza cease-fire talks, new deadlines were set for passing a budget and appropriations bills, and Lent started.
Somerby mentions none of these things because he is not a journalist and not a reporter and not a newspaper. He writes an opinion blog, pretends to be a media critic, occasionally muses about NAEP scores as a former teacher, bashed Gutfeld & Friends as a former standup and hirer of comedians at his comedy club. But mostly he joins the chorus of anti-Biden so-called liberals and promotes right wing talking points and memes (including the racist and sexist ones). When Biden wins, it will be in spite of Somerby, not because he provided any support whatsoever.
Al Gore taught Democrats that it isn't enough to win, you have to do it by enough of a margin that the victory cannot be stolen, as Jeb Bush help George Bush steal Florida. Gore also taught us that the Republicans are dirtier than we ever thought. And then Bush taught us the depths of incompetence possible on the right, and how many deaths that would cause. Somerby used to mention those deaths but has oddly stopped. Is that because the right wing favored the Iraq war and it might embarrass his current blog sponsors?
ReplyDelete“Do polls at this point really matter?”
ReplyDeleteMaybe not. But let me copy and paste the results from the latest poll anyway.
You won’t get poll results anywhere else but the Howler, except every media outlet in existence.
Here’s an example of a preferred formula by the haters:
ReplyDelete“Somerby doesn’t write about X. Is that because he needs to please his master?”
This example is humorous because this particular value of X is Somerby’s failure to talk about Iraqi deaths, yet Somerby mentions those very deaths in his post.
I said he used to tell us how many people had died. Now he repeats his formulaic phrase "People are dead..." without bothering to tell us the number.
DeleteNo, I see now that I wasn't that specific. Sorry.
Delete"People are dead all over Iraq because those people behaved that way."
I will repeat my complaint that Somerby has never fully analyzed Gore's loss and he has never acknowledged the ways in which Gore lost the election himself. Somerby blames the entire loss on the media but that isn't right.
First, Gore decided to take the high road in contrast the Clinton's dalliance with Lewinsky and complained that Bill Clinton had lied to him and focused on Clinton's immorality. Unfortunately, the rest of the country forgave Clinton and didn't consider the blowjob to be much of a transgression. Gore's take on Clinton prevented him from running on Clinton's solid accomplishments and his own contribution to them as VP. That left him campaigning on his own efforts (which are typically meager for VPs, which led to the press laughing at his internet claims, Love Canal and so on). Somerby, of course, omits this context.
Second, he allowed Tipper (his wife) to conduct a visible campaign against smutty lyrics in rock songs. Frank Zappa campaigned against her, making her look like a prude who wanted to censor music. She did manage to get parental warning labels put on packaging. This was at the beginning of rap so it made her look racist too. This contributed to Gore's image as a pious killjoy, which his stiffness enhanced.
Third, in keeping with his decision to run without Clinton, Gore selected Joe Lieberman as his VP. Lieberman was one of the loudest Democratic critics of Clinton's behavior. He too seemed uber religious and vindictive against Clinton, who otherwise had a strong performance as president. Lieberman subsequently left the party and now he heads No Labels (the third-party spoilers looking for a candidate and not finding anyone who wants to run as their presidential candidate). Lieberman drifted to the right and was increasingly out of step with Democrats and was disliked by many voters who otherwise might have voted for Gore.
The stiff-necked, conservative social and cultural image Gore deliberately chose worked against him in contrast to George Bush, who cultivated a fun-loving, relaxed, jokey and pleasant image as someone you might want to have a drink with, a regular guy who really wanted to be baseball commissioner but settled for president. Gore did this to himself.
There were a few minor scandals that the Republicans tried to push, including misuse of White House phones for campaigning (for which Gore over-apologized) and suspicion that a California bundler (fundraiser) was accepting funds from China but the funds from Maria Hsia (Gore's fundraiser) were returned by the DNC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_campaign_finance_controversy
And then there was Gore's failure to aggressively contest the Florida miscount (which a paper later verified he had won) and his retreat from politics. Democrats were disappointed by this as much as the other things he said and did.
But Somerby blames the media. He is perhaps biased in favor of his college friend, but Gore himself didn't encourage Somerby's support. In contrast, Gore's actual roommate, Tommy Lee Jones, was invited to be part of Gore's campaigning, introducing him when he announced his presidential run. I suspect that Somerby's ardent press bashing may have been embarrassing to Gore. You can't bash the press and then expect them to treat you better.
But Somerby has never accepted that there were other reasons why Gore lost, obvious reasons to those of us who were following politics at that time. And they had nothing to do with Naomi Wolf or the buttons on Gore's jacket. He ran a bad campaign.
I was referring to 11:04.
ReplyDeleteYup.
Delete"People are dead all over Iraq because those people behaved that way."
I guess they can't even be bothered to do more than skim read before dumping their crap here.
Somerby can't be bothered to do more than cut and paste. Why should his readers do more?
DeleteI Somerby lived in Roman times, he would be mocking Claudius for his stutter, much as he can find nothing good to say about Biden (despite his outstanding term as president). By all accounts, Claudius was a good Emperor. On the PBS show, his friends and neighbors used to think he was retarded. Somerby is similarly underestimating Biden. Because Somerby is an intelligent man who reads the papers, I have to consider his disdain for Biden to be motivated behavior. I have no way of knowing what is motivating him, except that he favors the right and mocks the left. That much is obvious.
ReplyDeleteWrong (and dumb), as usual. Somerby, as everyone else who is opposed to Trump, is worried that Biden's age, seeming feebleness, and speech problems will cost him votes, causing him to lose to the worst, most dangerous presidential candidate in U.S. history -- a candidate that should be ridiculously easy to beat. He is sounding the alarm, just like Jon Stewart, Ezra Klein, and others on the left have done. Personally, I don't know which approach is better: sounding the alarm and calling for a stronger candidate (most likely hurting Biden's prospects), or defending Biden and pointing out the good things he has done, etc.
DeleteMike, I agree that Somerby is saying those things, but they were similarly mean to Claudius and he turned out to be a good emperor.
DeleteThere is no reason to believe that Trump should be easy to beat, given his populist support and the right's willingness to cheat (which they did in 2016). The alarm should be sounded against Trump, not Biden. ALL have said that it is TOO LATE to change the Democratic nominee now, and most politicians do not want to see that happen. The people who know Biden from experience are strongly supporting him. Joining this cry to remove Biden plays into the disinformation campaign of the right wing and the media about Biden's abilities. It is unfair and wrong. Ezra Klein is wrong and Jon Stewart is a bothsiderist who mocked Hillary too, which didn't help her one bit. It is frustrating to watch/read these guys who can't seem to be enthusiastic about Democratic nominees and yet are considered part of the left.
This is not the time to sound an alarm. It is time to do the work of electing Biden.
A media criticism site might mention that the "The public is concerned that Biden is old" shtick is being made up and pushed by the media.
DeleteNikki Haley's campaign reports that Trump supporters engaged in inappropriate behavior toward her supporters at yesterday's Missouri Caucus. Her campaign says:
ReplyDelete"When Nikki's supporters rose to support her in yesterday's election, they were made to feel intimidated and scared for standing up for the candidate they believe in.
They were taunted.
They were screamed at
They were heckled.
They were told to line up 2 x 2 in the middle of the floor of the gym, while Trump's supporters, who were also their neighbors, booed at them."
This is the way Trump encourages his supporters to behave at rallies too. He tells them to go after dissenters, to get rid of them, to shout them down and beat them up.
Yes, Haley is fundraising off of this, and she is putting Trump in the position of treating his female candidate badly, but the MAGAts feed this with their own bad behavior.
There was a time when expressions of violence, mean-spirited taunting, name-calling and similar uncivil acts were considered unpresidential. But Trump's supporters consider it part of the fun, and that is what they enjoy at his rallies. The permission to break rules and act out, and as long as they get that, they don't seem to care how the country is governed. They just want Trump to give them permission to shoot migrants at will (in the legs, Trump says). Somerby could talk about that, but he doesn't. He just calls Somerby "unelectable," which is a big joke given that he got 100% of Missouri's delegates in their winner-take-all caucus.
And Nikki continues to identify as a Republican.
DeleteShe’s flirting with the idea of not endorsing Trump.
DeleteShe should change parties and become a Dem. Old ass, dumbass Joe could step down and she would probably beat Trump.
DeleteToday she said she will not endorse Trump. Many of her voters say they will vote for Biden. I suspect she might do that as well. I cannot see her voting for Trump, given the stuff she has been saying against him.
DeleteShe is still a Republican. Biden is not stepping aside. If he has health issues and cannot continue, Harris will take over because she polls the strongest against Trump of any of the alternatives. Right now, none of those alternatives are contesting Biden's nomination. They are supporting him strongly.
Despite the shame they feel for what he has done?
Delete"Can President Biden run a vigorous campaign?"
ReplyDeleteHe can't even coherently communicate. He's a train wreck.
And Trump is a bombed out nuclear hellscape who cannot govern.
DeleteExactly.
DeleteAnonymouse 1:08pm, the claim of Trump being unable to govern due to a lack of intellectual ability and moral fitness, or even mental lapses such as arguably calling his wife by the name Mercedes,… , will always take a back seat to footage of a doddering Biden.
DeleteLapses into incoherence and having to be led around like a blind man will always upstage those other things.
You can call that bias or animus on the part of the media, the public, and Bob, all day every day, and you will. That’s just how you roll.
Trump has a record of 4 years in office to prove he can’t govern. And there’s plenty of footage of Trump floundering in his dementia and psychopathy. Much of the footage of Biden “doddering” is manufactured and has to be placed next to his vigorous schedule as president and his devotion to physical exercise.
DeleteSo, when Somerby ascribes Gore’s loss to media animus, was he simply misguided about that?
DeleteBiden has arthritis, which is why he "dodders" (I assume that means he walks slowly and carefully, taking smaller steps). Arthritis produces pain in the joints, but it has never been known to affect thinking.
DeleteBiden has not been lapsing into incoherence. He is prone to gaffes when speaking off-script, but he has done that all of his political life. Lapsing into incoherence is what Trump does. Note his latest brags about taking TWO mental status exams, which he seems to have misunderstood the purpose and contents of. Notice the way Trump was unable to deal competently by reassuring the crowd when a heart attack in the audience interrupted his rally. He is unable to think on his feet and talk spontaneously to people and he said nothing whatsoever about it. He stood and stared for many minutes, then resumed where he had left off, saying nothing about the event. That is bizarre, not presidential, and it shows no leadership skill.
Have you forgotten that Trump cannot walk down a ramp or up airplane stairs without holding Melania's hand (or someone's)? Aides have been leading politicians around forever, to show them to a safe exit or their car, but it becomes a symptom when they do it with Biden? That's not right.
Unlike Dr. (now horrible Congresscritter, distributor of thousands of doses of Fentanyl and other opioids from the White House Pharmacy) Ronny Jackson saying Trump weighed 215 lbs. and would live to infinity and beyond... Biden's doctors say he is an old man in good health for his age and his mind is fine. He is on six? prescriptions, his nerves in his feet are bad (may explain more noticeable shuffling recently), etc. Sure he is not in perfect health. Then there are Trump's followers that think being three years younger than Biden at 78 makes him young. Never mind he is sputtering worse than Biden and does not have a life long stutter to help explain it. https://digbysblog.net/2024/03/03/trumps-getting-worse/
DeleteHe is taking preventive medications like a statin and metformin for prediabetes. Six is not many. Old people in worse health can be taking 20+. My husband was taking 27 for chronic conditions. Last time any info was provided by Trump, he was taking the same things as Biden.
DeleteThe problem with Biden besides his age is he's so unliked. He creeps people out. Plus he has done nothing for women or blacks.
DeleteIn your dreams…
DeleteTrump did a few things for women. Or should I say, to women.
DeleteBlacks are leaving the Democratic Party because of failed promises.
Delete11:58,
DeleteYou'll know blacks are leaving the Democratic Party when the Republican Party stops suppressing their votes. Until then, this all just wishful thinking by people who support rapists.
Voters recall the economy under Trump more fondly than they rate the economy now according to recent polls.
ReplyDeleteOne wouldn’t want to disabuse their feelings with facts of course.
DeleteWhy not?
DeleteIt’s called sarcasm, 1:09.
Delete1:12, I mean.
DeleteI think it comes down to food prices.
DeletePossibly, 1:13. Of course, the spike in inflation that happened at the beginning of Biden’s term was not Biden’s fault, and once prices rise, it’s difficult to get them to drop again.
DeleteI think the question why voters think Trump did better than Biden on the economy is an important one. In my view, a large part is the massive media megaphone during 2022-2023 screaming about inflation, and the other large part is the relative media silence about the miraculous economy that has now been engineered by Biden. I’m my view, it’s critical for us to spread the word: Right now is the best economy in history!
DeleteIt’s the economy, stupid!
It may be an important question, but economists have noted over and over that right wingers who complain about the economy are wrong about the facts. Aside from repeating those facts (which right wingers won't hear with they Fox viewing habits), what can be done? This is why people are focusing on the media's Biden bashing. They only focus on him to note that he is old, not to talk about the strong economy or his other work as president. This is what they did to Hillary too. It was "but her emails" all the time and nothing about her positive accomplishments or her programs. If Somerby were concerned about media malfeasance, he would be pointing this out, instead of joining the press in its chorus and trying to push Biden out of the nomination he has earned.
DeleteIf people feel the economy is one way and it has to be explained to them that it is another, it's probably not that good of an economy.
DeleteThe media was very polite to Hillary Clinton not to point out that the only reason she was running for president was because she married into it and that she didn't have even one meaningful political accomplishment.
Delete(I know you like her and think she had a meaningful political accomplishment.)
DeleteThe important is issue is why do voters feel the economy was better under Trump?
Delete3:42 - The heath of the economy can be measured by standard, objective metrics. Those tell us that the current economy is the best ever. What needs to be explained is why we in the blue tribe are unable (a) to believe it and (b) to brag about it.
Delete“Shrinkflation” is a perfect example. It’s a pitiful attempt to shift the blame for inflation. It would be much better for Biden to say, “I fought inflation - and I won!”
Delete@3:47 They believe the economy was better under Trump because they are told that by Fox and by Trump himself, over and over and over.
DeleteIt is not that ALL voters believe the economy was better under Trump. As you would expect, Democrats have a better view of the economy than Republicans, splitting along party lines.
The problem for Democrats is that voters have not started paying attention to the election yet. Some are tired of the drama and have tuned out politically. So many do not know about Trump's legal problems, his plans for his second term, or any of the recent negatives that have been in the news about Trump. This is reflected in polling. As it gets closer to the election in Nov, that should change, which is why paying too much attention to this early polling makes little sense.
It would be much better for Biden to say, “Inflation was a necessary side-effect of the stimulus needed to pull us out of a nasty recession. First I beat the recession. Then I beat the inflation. Now we’re seeing my dream of rising real wages, which are downstream of full employment and stable prices.”
Delete@3:44 This is just trolling, since Hillary is not running for anything and not very involved in politics any more. Last time you said this, I looked up and listed various of her accomplishments, beyond running as the nominee of a major party. I am not going to waste my time doing that again, since you are just trying needle people.
DeleteAnyone who knows anything about the Clintons knows that Hillary had ambition before she married Bill Clinton, supported his ambitions to become Governor of Arkansas, then president, and then she pursued his own goals, becoming Senator of New York, Secretary of State, and then presidential candidate. This is typical preparation for any presidential candidate and more than some have had. She would have won without Russian interference and Comey's misbehavior. And she would have been a much better president than Trump. I doubt she envies him having to deal with covid.
But no one brings up Hillary here any more except to troll and "own the libs". And that makes you a nuisance and a special kind of scum.
"pursued his own goals" should be "her own goals".
DeletePiper, does the discrepancy between people's feelings and the metrics that suggest otherwise raise issues about the metrics' validity and relevance?
DeleteIt could suggest that people are being propagandized, 7:31. The media nowadays is all about validating people’s “feelings”, while propagandizing them into having those very feelings.
DeleteI agree that Madame Secretary Clinton's red hot ambition would have led her to a lot of high places. But even with her considerable brilliance and talent, she had to marry into it in order for her to be a position to run for president. And we'll have to agree to disagree on her ever having a meaningful political accomplishment.🧝🏾♀️
DeleteAnd yet so many female politicians are succeeding in politics now without politician husbands much less presidents. Nikki Haley is the latest. She just won the D.C. primary against Trump, who is the loser tonight.
DeleteShe should switch parties and become a Democrat and get Joe Biden to do us all a favor and slink away to the old folks home. She could get the DNC machinery behind her and probably beat Trump. And it's not like Democrats would care. We're Republicans now anyway. Her policies are no different than Biden's. All war all the time and fealty to banks. Etc. I hope it happens.
Delete7:31 - It seems like my Dubs just lost to the Celtics by 52 points, but that’s only if you believe the standard metrics!
DeleteSame with the 2020 election. Trump won if you ignore the standard metrics!
DeleteIgnore the data and you can believe whatever you want!
Delete
DeleteHere's some data for you:
Eggs are 35% more expensive today than in Jan. 2021.
Baby food is 28% more expensive.
Are you ignoring this data?
5:35: This is why you need to educate the public. Those higher prices are not due to Biden policies. Sometimes, events are outside the immediate control of the President. The spike in inflation at the beginning of Biden’s term was a reaction to previous issues. He has gotten inflation back under control with the help of congressional action.
Delete5:35,
DeleteCan you point me to the voters who think we should raise taxes to fight the inflation caused by Biden putting too much money into the economy?
Until then, this is just people talking about the old days, the way my parents told me they could buy a quart of Pepsi for a nickel, when they were young.
I miss the time before the Biden Presidency, when prices never went up.
DeleteLOL.
5:35 - Certainly you know you’re cherry-picking, right? During any period of time, the prices of some things go up (say, because of avian flu) while others go down. That’s why they use a basket of goods when calculating CPI.
DeleteThe price of a new house has gone up 30 percent since 2000. Price of a new car is up 27 percent since 2,000. I guess that's not Biden's fault either. It's like Ukraine and Gaza - not his fault! Nothing he can do about that! But we're supposed to give him all the credit for his miracle economy? You all are talking out your ass.
DeleteA few short days ago, Our Host was stumped and baffled that red news orgs were dutifully telling their red tribe viewers about that awful, awful attack on police by migrants in Times Square--while blue tribe viewers were being ill-served by blue outlets.
ReplyDeleteBut hold the phone! What's this?
"A Venezuelan man who became the subject of national attention for allegedly kicking a police officer in Times Square, then flipping off news cameras on his way out of court, was cleared of wrongdoing on Friday after prosecutors concluded he played no role in the attack."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-alvin-bragg-new-york-times-square-venezuelan-b2505738.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed
Will the corrections be quickly forthcoming from those same red news outlets? Certainly a matter of such importance will be presented with alacrity!
This is the Daily Howler, not a media criticism blog.
DeleteHere's a poll Somerby has not mentioned (from Political Wire):
ReplyDeleteSlice of GOP Primary Voters Won’t Vote for Trump
March 3, 2024 at 8:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard
“A small but substantial chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they would be so dissatisfied if Donald Trump became the party’s presidential nominee that they would not vote for him in November’s general election,” according to AP VoteCast.
“An analysis of the data shows that many of those voters were unlikely to vote for Trump, some even before this year, but it still points to potential problems for the former president as he looks to consolidate the nomination and pivot toward an expected rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.”
“According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall.”
I hope Bob can find a topic other than the Presidential election. The discussion on this topic is not producing interesting or informative comments
ReplyDeleteSince when do you measure the quality of Bob’s posts by the relative quality of the comments? (And you forgot to say IMHO).
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ReplyDelete"That new survey has Biden and Trump in a dead heat, at 44 points apiece."
But if they're tied in a meaningless nation-wide poll, that means that the Donald is ahead, Bob. Because you moonbats tend to congregate closely, packed in like sardines inside your silos.
Come to the daily howler, now known as poll central. Steve Kornacki, watch your back, man!
DeleteWeirdo Mao, quiet. The adults are talking.
DeleteOh, you went in that direction? No comment about the moonbats in their silos?
Delete7::53,
DeleteMissiles in silos, not moonbats.
Mao is dead. Long live Mao.
ReplyDeleteI'm voting for Trump. Lots of other people are, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj6qeGJCIj0
If he wins, you’ll deserve what you get.
DeleteDid you look at the YouTube clip?
DeleteYes, I saw it.
DeleteHaving seen it, you think anonymous 10:17 is a Trump supporter.
DeleteI have no brain.
DeleteProbably.
DeleteRaising taxes doesn't always reduce inflation. It does, when inflation is caused by too much money in the economy, but not when the cause is price-gouging. Inflation caused by price-gouging is reduced through more market competition, which is the result of anti-trust/ anti-monopoly regulation and enforcement.
ReplyDelete