WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18, 2025
Also, Times tries to explain arrests: Even at the highest journalistic levels, simple explanation isn't real easy.
As a matter of fact, basic explanation often seem to be fiendishly hard.
We start with the latest attempt to explain the effect the pending Republican budget bill would have on the (growing) national debt. The national debt is already quite large. How large could it get in the future?
The CBO has issued another estimate—another projection—concerning that budget bill. In this morning's New York Times, Tony Romm starts off like this:
House Policy Bill Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Debt, Swamping Economic Gains
House Republicans’ sprawling package to cut taxes and slash federal safety-net programs would add about $3.4 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan congressional analysts, who reported on Tuesday that the minor gains in economic growth under the bill would not offset its full fiscal impact.
The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to yet another dour report card for the president’s signature legislation, which passed the House last month but now faces the prospect of significant revisions to its core components in the Senate.
In its current form, the House Republican bill would extend and expand a set of expiring tax cuts enacted by President Trump during his first term. It would pay for some of those expensive components with deep cuts to federal anti-poverty programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.
The C.B.O. report issued on Tuesday sought to project the ways the bill would interact with federal spending and the U.S. economy, building on its earlier finding that the House-passed measure carried a roughly $2.4 trillion price tag.
[...]
Even after factoring in spending cuts, the proposal would still add nearly $2.8 trillion to federal deficits over the next 9 years, according to the official tally from C.B.O. The figure grows to about $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included.
We're speaking here about nine years, not the customary ten. For reasons Romm explains in his report, that early estimate—roughly $2.4 trillion "added to the debt"—has now been jumped to "[roughly] $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included."
(By the way: Why wouldn't the additional costs of borrowing be included? We have no idea.)
Romm goes on to explain various things. We'll offer our standard complaint:
Romm reports the CBO's estimate: The House Republican bill, as it currently stands, would add "nearly $2.8 trillion" (or to "[roughly] $3.4 trillion") to the debt over the next nine years.
Presumably, we're supposed to think that's a lot. What goes unstated is this:
Based on CBO estimates, we're going to add well over $20 trillion to the debt over that period as matters already stand. That $3.4 trillion is a relatively small addition to that projected pile of new debt.
The $2.8 / $3.4 trillion is a pebble on the beach compared to the amount of new debt which is already projected to occur. It's amazing to us that budget reporters don't articulate this basic matter in their budget reports, using actual numbers.
There used to be time for such explanations, but our news orgs are now forced to spend their time chasing distractions around. Meanwhile, we remain puzzled by a different unexplained matter in this second news report:
Brad Lander Is Arrested by ICE Agents at Immigration Courthouse
Brad Lander, the New York City comptroller who is running for mayor, was arrested on Tuesday by federal agents at an immigration courthouse in Lower Manhattan as he tried to escort a migrant whom agents were seeking to arrest.
[...]
Tuesday was the third time that Mr. Lander had appeared at the city’s immigration courts, where ICE agents, typically wearing masks, have become a regular presence as the agency ramps up arrests of migrants showing up for routine court hearings.
Prosecutors with the Department of Homeland Security have surprised a number of migrants by dismissing their cases when they appear in court, a legal tactic that opens the door for ICE agents to arrest them in the hallways once they leave and place them in expedited deportation proceedings without hearings.
Several Democratic politicians, including members of Congress, have shown up at immigration courthouses in recent weeks to protest the Trump administration’s new tactics.
As part of the administration's "new tactics," migrants have been arrested right in the hallways after prosecutors surprise them "by dismissing their cases."
Our question:
What kinds of "cases" are we talking about? Also, why are these people subject to arrest once these cases are suddenly dismissed?
Today's report doesn't explain those points. Neither does the earlier report to which it provides a link regarding this very topic.
Explanation has never been easy. Today, in the face of all the distractions, it may be even harder.
ReplyDelete"Based on CBO estimates, we're going to add well over $20 trillion to the debt over that period as matters already stand. That $3.4 trillion is a relatively small addition to that projected pile of new debt."
Good. And since it cuts both taxes and spending, it's perfect, considering.
There is nothing good or perfect about the current US budget situation. It's unsustainable.
DeleteAnd when inflation kicks in and interest rates spike while funding wars on multiple fronts and these yahoos in charge, great moobly goobly.
Delete
DeleteTime to move to Canada, idiot-Democrats.
People don't call each other idiots in Canada.
DeleteIf they did the would be very sorry for being an unrepentant asshole.
DeleteSomerby seems to be a baseball fan. He might be interested in Adrian Carrasquillo's new article about the Dodgers and their failure to support their Hispanic fan base:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-dodgers-owe-more-to-their-latino-fan-base-ice-protests-los-angeles
Apparently, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a fan base that is 40% Hispanic. They hold special game days for those of Mexican Heritage and those of Salvadoran Heritage. Recently, because of Trump's targeting of Hispanics in the area, the team management have felt queasy just allowing a famous pop singer to sing the national anthem in Spanish at such a special game. They have said and done nothing, expressed no sympathy for the fear and disruption being experienced by their Latino fans and the fans are noticing that, as are various sports commentators. This may be a serious mistake on their part because baseball and fans will be around longer than Trump will. I live in CO but I still don't drink Coors because of their discriminatory hiring, union-busting, and opposition to LGBTQ organizing, and that was in the 1970s. So I think the Dodgers management might think about how long fans might remember their failure to do the right thing during a term that may only last another few years. 40% is a lot of fans to lose.
I don't live in CO and don't drink Coors because it is worse than piss water.
DeleteYou might have been drinking Coors without realizing it. "Molson Coors Beverage Company produces and markets a wide range of beer brands, including popular names like Coors Light, Coors Banquet, Miller Lite, and Molson Canadian. They also own other well-known brands such as Blue Moon, Carling, and Leinenkugel's."
DeleteThe Coors family is also a major contributor to the American Enterprise Institute.
Delete"Los Angeles Dodgers to Help Immigrant Communities
DeleteJune 19, 2025 at 7:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
“The Dodgers on Thursday will announce their plans to assist the immigrant communities recently impacted in Los Angeles,” the Los Angeles Times reports."
Better late than never.
"What kinds of "cases" are we talking about? Also, why are these people subject to arrest once these cases are suddenly dismissed?
ReplyDeleteToday's report doesn't explain those points. Neither does the earlier report to which it provides a link regarding this very topic."
To answer Somerby's questions: When someone is suspected of committing a crime in the USA, and there is sufficient evidence to prosecute them, the district attorney will file charges and they will have "due process" which means they will have their day in court. There has not been a determination of guilt or innocence at that point, just a suspicion based on available evidence during investigation.
Because these people are migrants, Trump wants to deport them. If tried, they may not be convicted or they may be put in jail if found guilty, or given some other sentence (probation, diversion). Trump doesn't want to wait so, he gets prosecutors to drop the charges and not continue the prosecution. Then, as the accused people are walking out of the courtroom, they are summarily detained (that's what the word "arrested" means) and sent to a detention camp and then deported. There is no waiting for the trial or sentence to end.
Trump thinks that all migrants are criminals already. He doesn't care if they are guilty or not. He just wants them deported. Gone. As quickly as possible to fill quotas. When he sweeps them up as they come out the door, he assumes they are all guilty, but some may have never committed a crime ever, in the US or elsewhere. They may have been strictly following the requirements of their asylum or residence greencard or student visa. When they are assumed to be guilty without finishing the trial, they do not get due process. That is the problem with detaining them as they come out the door -- no due process to determine who is guilty and who is not. Violating due process like that is why people have been filing court cases against Trump and challenging these ICE arrests.
The lack of due process (via dismissal of the court case) is why Lander was there and why he asked to see the arrest warrant for the migrant he was accompanying. By due process, ICE was required to have a warrant and they did not. Arresting Lander was also illegal since he did nothing to impede or assault the officers. He merely asked for the warrant.
It does not matter what kinds of cases are involved or what crimes were being charged. This has been happening with a variety of types of cases. There are too many crimes to list them all in a news paper article. ICE has not been singling out specific crimes for this treatment. These are not immigration-related crimes, such as failure to have legal authorization to stay in the US. The case may be something like shoplifting or eviction or manslaughter. The point is that without a trial they have not been determined to be guilty or not-guilty.
Due process exists to protect the innocent. But the trial also ensures justice for the victims and their families. If I were raped, I would be upset if the charges were dismissed and the guy were allowed to go free in another country instead of paying for his crime and being prevented from raping other women. So this practice is an abuse of the justice system for all concerned. Why would a police office spend time investigating a crime thought to be committed by a migrant, if they knew the charges would be dismissed before trial? What if people simply call the ICE hotline and report anyone suspected of a crime (or anyone they dislike), without any investigation, just to make that person's life miserable. Is that justice of any kind? How would the innocent protect themselves if they were immigrants. And what about those who are legal citizens who appear to be migrants but are merely Hispanic or speaking Spanish? Should they be harrassed in this way without access to an actual investigation and trial, because of their visible demographic characteristics? That's the problem with this approach.
Cont. I am very surprised that Somerby cannot think about these possibilities himself, but is so knee-jerk eager to get rid of migrants himself that he has no empathy for those accused who are deported instead of tried in court.
DeleteSomerby, of course, won't read any of this. But perhaps some of the idiots who support him will read a bit of it and have some of their questions answered. Anything is possible.
3:44, good job explaining. People are saying at least the courts and judiciary and holding strong against the fascism. But the courts cannot deal with this level of lawlessness from the executive branch. It is not set up to react as quickly as is needed. The only real check would be congress and the power of impeachment but the republicans in charge in congress have surrendered their Constitutional obligations to protect our republic. In other words, this country committed suicide last November.
DeleteWe also have a principle that the punishment should fit the crime, not be disproportionate to it. If someone were charged with shoplifting, is it a proportionate response to force him to start a whole new life in a country he may never have lived in as an adult? Is having to find a new job, find a new place to live, learn a new language, learn how to pay taxes, take transit or drive a car, how to shop or make new friends in an entirely different place? That seems like a much too stringent penalty for whatever was stolen (perhaps deliberately or perhaps out of absent-mindedness).
DeleteSome innocent people are being housed with gang members and criminals who they have nothing in common with, don't speak the same language, and may even be victimized by. That may be just terrifying or it could be physically dangerous. And what about the trauma and mental health of someone who is targeted for deportation that way? Is that a proportionate punishment for some minor crime, or for someone who has committed no crime at all. Not to mention separation of families and friends after decades of living in the US without having done anything illegal or wrong.
The cruelty of this deportation program is a hallmark of Republicans, who don't seem to be able to empathize with anyone not themselves. That includes Somerby, who should have been able to see what is wrong with this but sides with Trump, no just in the idea of deporting people but in the cruel manner in which it is happening.
The cruelty of this deportation program ...
DeleteStephen Miller is a sick fuck and needs to get the fuck out of the WH immediately and into extreme psychological counseling.
Pam Bondi insisted today that all of the immigrants marching in LA are criminals who are hurting other people in LA. (People in LA don't think so.) She said that justifies the use of Marines now when Trump wouldn't mobilize the National Guard for the 1/6 insurrection, in which 9 people died (5 on the scene and 4 later by suicide) and 178 police officers were injured (in contrast to the LA No-Kings marches where only 38 people were arrested, 3 officers injured).
DeleteThe article says ICE is showing up at " routine court hearings" where cases are being dismissed instead of going forward.
ReplyDeleteAI says: "Routine court hearings can include initial appearances, arraignments, pre-trial conferences, motion hearings, sentencing hearings, and debt hearings. These hearings serve various purposes, such as advising defendants of charges, entering pleas, preparing for trial, and determining appropriate sentences."
Does Somerby think that people cannot use Google if they want answers to questions that arise while they are reading the newspaper?
"WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Still fuming over the terrible turnout for his birthday parade, on Wednesday Donald J. Trump accused “evil migrants” of kidnapping “millions of real Americans” who were planning to attend.
ReplyDelete“They grabbed them off the street like they were cats and dogs,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Then they forced them to march in those far left lunatic No Kings protests.”
According to White House sources, Trump is considering a variety of options to distract people from the failure of his parade, including releasing the Epstein files."
Hopefully, the imaginary Republican voters who care more about economics than about kicking down on the vulnerable, will bring Trump around to his senses.
ReplyDeleteOr unicorns will.
"Paul Strauss (D), the shadow senator representing the District of Columbia, blamed President Donald Trump's "unnecessary" military parade for causing the death of a 39-year-old woman after she was "dragged for blocks" by a truck carrying an M1-Abrams tank, according to The Daily Mail."
ReplyDeleteFor goodness sake, she should have let go of the truck!
DeleteNot funny. She died because Trump wanted a parade with tanks, which do not belong on city streets.
DeleteShe died because she didn't look both ways.
DeleteAccording to D.C. police, a woman ran onto New York Avenue in Northeast near Bladensburg Road on Monday at around 9:30 p.m. She stumbled and was pinned under a tractor trailer, which dragged her for several feet.
She was then hit by a Chevy Suburban that was traveling behind that truck.
The report I read said she was dragged for several blocks, not feet. You seem to be suggesting the result would be the same if she weren't hit by a large truck carrying a tank. Would she have been dragged so far without the driver noticing if she had been hit by a normal sized vehicle? I doubt it.
DeleteYes, she wouldn't have been hit if she hadn't entered the street. We don't know why that happened because she is dead and cannot tell us.
Regardless, there is nothing funny about this incident and it certainly wouldn't have happend if Trump hadn't ordered tanks for his birthday. No one expects to be hit by a tank when crossing a street.
How petty is this?
ReplyDelete"Reuters White House Correspondent Jeff Mason posted a photo to X of a wall in the White House where former first lady Hillary Clinton's portrait once hung.
The wall features paintings of first ladies in chronological succession, with Laura Bush and Barbara Bush, and between them would commonly be Clinton's painting. That has now been replaced with a meme of President Donald Trump turned into an unframed painting."
This kind of behavior is not normal.
This kind of thing suggests that Trump has too much time on his hands, doesn't actually participate in the job of presidenting and is obsessed with jealousies and self-esteem issues. Or maybe his aides think this is funny?
There was a picture earlier today of Trump directing workers on where to put a new flag pole in the White House lawn. Why would a functional president concern himself with such trivia? We are in the midst of a crisis with Iran in which we may initiate bombing to eradicate their nuclear program. A real president would be immersed in that, dealing with staff and foreign leaders in the leadup to a decision about whether to bomb or not. He would be informing the US people via an address if he were to commit an act of war, telling us why it was necessary and what the fallout might be. He would be coordinating with Congress (which itself is obsessed with former president Biden's mental status) and working to get the resources needed for such a military mission.
Trump is playing games with memes in the First Lady's wing of the White House. If Trump is not doing the job of president, who is? Is Pete Hegseth going to bomb Iran? Is it necessary when Tulsi Gabbard keeps insisting that Iran has no nuclear program (most world experts think they do)? Shouldn't Trump's incompetent appointees be receiving some form of supervision in the jobs they are unqualified to hold?
And what is Somerby talking about today? Trivial nonsense.
Maggots around here keep talking about TDS. Let me tell you something, CDS came first and is orders of magnitude worse and absolutely terminal.
DeleteDon't forget another disorder, TLD (Trump Lickspittle Disorder)
DeleteAt least our disorder was not self induced. They ha
DeleteThey have no excuse.
DeleteSomerby has a vested interest in not understanding what reporters have written. If he found their writing clear, he would have nothing to complain about. The things he obstinately refuses to understand are generally described adequately in the quotes he gives us. The idea that he must understand everything written by reporters strikes me as unreasonable given that understanding also depends on life experience, language ability and focus (concentration). This is a two-way street and it has always seemed to me that Somerby expects to be spoon-fed and won't put in his share of the effort needed to read a text. His attitude toward understanding seems to be passive not active. As a former teacher, he should understand this stuff, so I consider his refusal to understand in today's quotes to be motivated by a desire to misunderstand what has been happening to migrants and others wrongfully detained (such as Lander's arrest).
ReplyDeleteAnd his misunderstanding of the CBO is just embarrassing:
Delete"Based on CBO estimates, we're going to add well over $20 trillion to the debt over that period as matters already stand."
Oof, most of that debt increase is from Republican tax cuts.
Somerby just sleep walking his way through another lazy post.
Trump's first term alone contributed to one third of our entire debt.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/tax-cuts-are-primarily-responsible-for-the-increasing-debt-ratio/
"If not for the Bush tax cuts and their extensions as well as the Trump tax cuts revenues would be on track to keep pace with spending indefinitely, and the debt ratio (debt as a percentage of the economy) would be declining. Instead, these tax cuts have added $10 trillion to the debt since their enactment and are responsible for 57 percent of the increase in the debt ratio since 2001, and more than 90 percent of the increase in the debt ratio if the one-time costs of bills responding to COVID-19 and the Great Recession are excluded. Eventually, the tax cuts are projected to grow to more than 100 percent of the increase."
Republicans are trashing our country to give tax cuts to the wealthy, and the Republican rubes say "hot diggity dog" because while they will suffer, women and people of color will suffer more.
If I understand the numbers, good news about the deficit is being reported as bad news. According to The NY Times, the CBO says the House bill would increase the debt by $3.4 trillion over the next 9 years, including the full cost of borrowing. The increase in the debt is the amount of the deficit. So, the CBO predicts that the House bill will run a total 9-year deficit of $3.4 trillion, or an average deficit of $378 billion per year. This is a huge improvement over Biden's actual deficit last year, which was $2 trillion. It would mean cutting the deficit by 81%.
ReplyDeleteIt would mean cutting the deficit by 81% - Come on man. Try being less pathetic. Just once.
DeleteI agree with you @10:37. I feel that there must be something wrong with the numbers. Can you help me find it? I just checked the FY 2024 deficit. It was $1.831 trillion. So my $2 trillion guess was in the ballpark.
DeleteI went back to an earlier NY Times article. It says, "The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday that the broad Republican bill to cut taxes and slash some federal programs would add $2.4 trillion to the already soaring national debt over the next decade." So the average deficit in the $23 to $3 trillion range looks right.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/us/politics/trump-policy-bill-deficit-estimate.html
However that same article says, "The United States government currently has roughly $29 trillion in public debt, and the budget office had previously forecast that it would grow by roughly $21 trillion over the next decade."
I now suspect that what the Times means was the House bill will "add an additional $2.4 trillion to $19 trillion increase that would occur without the House bill.
If this is right, it's worth noting that the House bill adds only a small percentage (11%) to the built-in deficit.
That's the additional deficit. Not "Biden's deficit was worse". Trump's was worse. Biden's budget improved things. Trump will make them worse again.
DeleteYou clearly do not understand the numbers and will go to any length, including posting your ridiculous take on them, to support a tax policy in which tax breaks for billionaires is promoted at the expense of our defict.
DeleteWhen Bessent was asked if he could name a single economist who did not agree that the proposed budget adds substantially to the deficit, and answered "Arthur Laffer" there was audible laughter on the Senate floor. Reaganomics has been a disaster, is a major reason why Republican administrations fare so poorly compared with Democratic ones fiscally, was publicly abandoned as a failure by one of its chief architects (Bruce Bartlett) after the 2008 recession, and will apparently never be given up as mainstay Republican policy in the service of the rich, irrespective of its obvious failure as economic policy.
DeleteThis is what happens when people who are too emotionally attached to photos of Hunter Biden's penis to care about economics, are put in power.
DeleteWhat Rosenberg wrote yesterday:
Delete"I just get the sense now that the buffoonish, dangerous, sundowning man we all see is now being seen by far more people.
A door is opening, people are waking up to the awful reality of Trump and not the right wing noise machine version of him."
Wasn't sure if he was writing about David in California or the felon 'till the second paragraph.
I agree with Ilya that the deficit during Biden's term was lower than during Trump’s first term and was a little lower than the projected deficit in the House bill. But when you look at the DEBT, none of these budgets improved things. They all made the national debt MUCH MUCH worse.
DeleteWe are mostly arguing who to blame. We should be arguing how to fix this problem.
Republicans are currently arguing about how best to destroy the full faith and credit of the United States Government. Nothing else to discuss except the end of American global exceptionalism and the rise of China.
DeleteLet's muse about the media calling Republicans (i.e. bigots) "economically anxious", even though they know nothing about economics.
ReplyDeleteRepublican politicians give lip service to them being in the fiscally conservative party with zero supporting evidence.
Delete"MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell claimed on Wednesday that he’s never heard a comment more “indicative of dementia” from a president than one recently made by President Donald Trump.
ReplyDeleteO’Donnell opened The Last Word with a monologue where he insulted Trump’s cognitive state and questioned whether anyone would know if the president, 79, was suffering from “dementia” as he took issue with Trump floating the idea of appointing himself as Fed chair.
“If Donald Trump gets dementia, how will we know? Donald Trump’s mental decline, which is more and more obvious, started from such a low level of mental processing power that it’s hard to track his decline. It’s from low to lower,” the MSNBC host said. “And then there are days like today when Donald Trump asks himself out loud in public if he is allowed to appoint himself chair of the Federal Reserve.”
Whoa, a super-sensational "dog bites man" news!
DeleteWhoa, a super-sensational "Haitian bites dog" news!
Delete