Another trigger for the search!

WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023

Is Mississippi for real? Below, we show you another trigger for our current search.

You won't hear about any of this on Deadline: White House. You won't hear about any of this this from Rachel or from Lawrence.

Our blue tribe tribunes don't care about this. That basic fact has been blindingly obvious for a very long time.

That said, here are some test scores for lower-income black kids on last year's Naep:

Average scores, lower-income black students
Grade 4 reading, Naep, 2022
Massachusetts: 204.05
Mississippi: 202.76
Washington state: 202.46
Florida: 202.27
Arizona: 201.19
Texas: 199.84

U.S. public schools: 193.42

In Grade 4 reading, those were the six highest-performing states among lower-income black kids on last year's Naep. 

(Within Naep data, what we call "lower-income" is derived from eligibility for the federal free or reduced-price lunch program.)

As you can see, Mississippi's lower-income black kids outscored their counterparts in every state except Massachusetts on the Grade 4 reading test. Based on a very rough but conventional rule of thumb, they outperformed their counterparts across the nation by almost one whole academic year.

Those scores are part of what the Associated Press recently referred to as "the Mississippi miracle." In that report, the AP offered some explanations for this surprising performance.

Nicole and her favorites don't care about any of this' neither do Lawrence or Rachel. The Morning Joe gang created a brief/bungled clown show about this matter when the AP report appeared.

Having said all that, we'll also say this. The question we're asking is this:

Are those surprising test scores real? Is everything really as it seems with those "heartening" data?

Tomorrow, we start the search to answer that question. MSNBC's values to the side, we blue tribe members can decide for ourselves whether such things are important.

For all Naep data, start here.

THE SEARCH: We sought the truth about one school's scores!

WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023

The history of that search: In February 2006, one of our favorite journalists—a person we flatly admire—made a substantial mistake. 

As you know, we human beings sometimes make mistakes. In this case, the mistake was bannered across the top of the front page of the Washington Post, where a banner headline said this:

A Study in Pride, Progress

The front-page report told a (very) familiar story about a (nearly miraculous) elementary school in Alexandria, Virginia.

The front-page report told a highly novelized story about the progress and pride now on display at one low-income school. Under the lead of a new, "energetic principal," the school had shown remarkable one-year growth in its scores on Virginia's statewide tests. 

Unfortunately, a mistake lay at the heart of that front-page report. A few days later, the Washington Post editorial board got taken in by the mistake:

WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL (2/5/06): A profile of once-disastrous, now-successful Maury Elementary School in Alexandria by The Post's Jay Mathews last week showed what can be achieved if teachers and administrators use the law well. It's an odd idea, getting the Democrats to embrace a Republican project. But if they are brave enough to do it, thousands of inner-city children will be better off.

As you can see, the editors were thrilled by the large score gains at the "once-disastrous, now-successful school." 

As you can see, the editors attributed the score gains to President George W. Bush's No Child Left Behind law. According to the editors, if other teachers would employ the law the way the staff at this one school had, "thousands of inner-city children will be better off."

Unfortunately, this upbeat editorial was based on a large mistake. Everything was not as it seemed with this school's improved test scores.

In yesterday morning's report, we reminded you of the way impressive score gains can sometimes result from outright cheating—from deliberate, fraudulent conduct by the staff of a school or school system. 

We first became aware of this problem over dinner one night, with three other Baltimore City teachers, in 1971 or maybe 1972. Finally, almost forty years later, USA Today and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution researched this phenomenon to devastating effect. 

For one brief shining moment, that reporting—and the subsequent criminal trials in Georgia—created a world in which mainstream journalists were willing to acknowledge the existence of this long-running phenomenon. 

That said, we humans love the familiar, highly novelized tale of The Little Low-Income Elementary School That Could. Sometimes, major journalists may love that novelized story so much that they fail to check the small print in the data sets which accompany the upbeat report on the miraculous scores at the school. 

Did the AP fail to check the small print concerning the "Mississippi miracle," the topic it explored in this lengthy, upbeat report back on May 17? 

We're going to examine that question before our current series is done. But for today, we thought we'd review the remarkable error which led to that front-page report in the Washington Post—that front-page report about a small "inner city" elementary school which had previously been disastrous but was now successful. 

As far as we know, there was no "cheating"—none at all—on the part of the Maury staff. As far as we know, that school's apparent test score gains did not result from fraudulent conduct on the part of Maury's teachers or its "energetic" new principal.

Instead, the test score gains. which turned out to be bogus, had resulted from a bizarre policy move on the part of the state of Virginia's Department of Education. That said, please understand this:

There are different ways in which apparent test score gains can turn out to be bogus. Flagrant cheating can produce such gains, but so can policy decisions made at a higher level.

Briefly, this is the remarkable story concerning what happened at Maury:

For starters, our search began with this. Here at THE HOWLER, we didn't believe that front-page report about those heartening score gains. 

We didn't necessarily disbelieve that news report. But through long experience, we knew that upbeat news reports of that type often turn out to be bogus.

In the case of that front-page report, our search went on for several months. By the time we were done, everyone from the chairman of the Virginia Board of Education on down had agreed that a deeply ridiculous policy provision had led to the misimpression conveyed in that front-page report.

What actually happened at Maury Elementary? Crazy as it's going to seem, the story turned out to be this:

At that time, the state of Virginia was testing Grades 3, 5 and 8 in its statewide testing program. At some point, the state board had come up with a truly crazy idea—a crazy idea which would vastly inflate the official passing rates at large numbers of schools on the statewide tests.

Crazy as it seems—and no, we really aren't making this up—the official procedure was this:

Kids would take the statewide reading and math tests when they were in Grade 3. If they failed to achieve a passing grade, they would be promoted to Grade 4—and at the end of their Grade 4 year, those kids would take the Grade 3 test again!

Depending on how this was reported, this could have made perfect sense. But what follows is the way it was actually reported—and no, we aren't making this up:

Consider Maury Elementary, a small, low-income school. In the school year under review, there were only 19 third graders in the school. 

Only five of them passed the state's reading test. This created a dismal passing rate of 26.3 percent.

Statewide, the passing rate had been 77 percent! With that in mind, how did a school with a 26.3 percent passing rate quality as "now successful?"

The answer to your question is this, and no, we aren't making this up:

At Maury that year, there were a bunch of kids in the fourth grade who had failed the Grade 3 reading test the year before. In accord with official state policy, those kids took the Grade 3 test again at the end of the year—and 12 of those kids now attained a passing grade on the Grade 3 test.

So far, this still could have made a type of sense. But here's what happened next:

In accord with official state policy, the twelve fourth graders who passed the test were lumped in with the five third graders who passed it. This meant that seventeen kids had passed the Grade 3 reading test, in a school with only 19 third graders!

By now, you'll surely think we're kidding. Sadly enough, we aren't! In accord with official state procedure. the state reported that 17 kids had passed the Grade 3 test at Maury—17 kids, in a school with only 19 third graders. 

On that basis, the state reported that Maury Elementary had an 89% passing rate on the Grade 3 reading test! That was the official report, despite the fact that only five of the school's 19 third graders had actually passed the test.

We know, we know, we know, we know—it sounds we're making that up. It's hard to believe that something so crazy could have been happening as a matter of official state policy—but that is the way it was working in Virginia at the point in time.

By the time we spoke with the chairman of the state board, everyone had come to agree that this had been a crazy procedure which shouldn't have been adopted. But on the basis of that crazy procedure, the state had reported that Maury had a 89% passing rate on the Grade 3 reading test, and the Washington Post had accepted that claim at face value.

The Post got fooled atop its front page, then in an upbeat editorial. Based on long experience with bogus test scores, we didn't (necessarily) believe what we read that first day, and we decided to check it out.

It took several months of effort to get clear on what actually happened. You can review the search in our 2006 archives, running from February 6 through March 23 on a nearly daily basis, and then occasionally after that.

Just for the record, here's how crazy it was! Below, you see one torrent of official language explaining the way this policy worked.

We highlight the last part only. In that part of this torrent of language, the state explains what to do if more than 100 percent of your school's kids pass a given test!

Remediation Recovery, which started with the 2001 SOLs, is a third reason for apparent score disparities. Students in grades 4, 6, or 9 may retake failed English: Reading/Literature and Research or mathematics tests for grades 3, 5, or 8, respectively, following a Remediation Recovery program. Additionally, students who failed Algebra I, Geometry, or Algebra II and who are enrolled in a Remediation Recovery program may retake a given EOC mathematics test. Tables 6, 7, 15, 17, and 20 display the number of students who retook the failed SOL, the percentage who passed, the number who passed (Bonus number), and the potential benefit to the school (Recovery Bonus or Unadjusted + Recovery score). In the State's calculations to determine accreditation, the number of students who pass the targeted test following a Remediation Recovery program will be added to the number of students who passed the SOLs in the same content area. For example, a fourth grader’s passing grade 3 mathematics score will be added to that school’s grade 3 mathematics passing scores. At other grade levels, the passing mathematics score will be added to the school’s “collapsed” SOL mathematics scores (for accreditation calculations, all mathematics scores are collapsed or averaged together to create one passing percentage). Remediation Recovery students will be included in the unadjusted number of students who passed, but not in the number of students tested, hence the term Recovery Bonus. Said another way, passing Remediation Recovery students are added to the numerator, but not to the denominator. What this means is that a passing percentage exceeding 100 percent is possible (Note: while this overview reports percentages more than 100 percent, the State caps pass rates at 100 percent).

Good God! Under the state's official policy, "a passing percentage exceeding 100 percent is possible!" 

Also, note the boondoggle about adding the number of "Remediation Recovery students" to the numerator, but not to the denominator. Under this absurd procedure, it could turn out that more than 100 percent of your school's kids had passed some particular test!

At that point, the state would step in! When schools ended up with passing rates which exceeded 100 percent, the state of Virginia had decided to "cap" that (impossible) passing rate at a mere 100 percent!

Was this policy adopted in good faith? We aren't mind-readers here.

That said, the Post believed what it was told about Maury's passing rates. It didn't examine the small print in the state's reports on individual schools like Maury, where puzzling statistical contradictions immediately began to turn up.

Based on long experience with fraudulent test scores, we pretty much didn't believe what we read in the Post about those high scores. We spent several months conducting a search.

Back to the question which has triggered the present search:

Everything was not as it seemed with the passing rates at Maury. Is it possible that things are not completely as they seem with those improved Mississippi test scores?

Tomorrow, we'll start to examine that question. We'll offer a bit more of this history of bogus test scores in this week's afternoon submissions.

Tomorrow: The AP's explanations

Recalling the trigger for our current search!

TUESDAY, MAY 30, 2023

Is everything as it seems? Last week, we explored a topic we called THE UNDISCUSSED.

This week, we're discussing THE SEARCH.

It's important to remain clear about the trigger for that current search. In the present circumstance, here's the specific question we're trying to answer:

We're trying to learn if everything is at it seems with the so-called "Mississippi miracle"—the subject of this AP report back on May 17.

The AP report dealt with Mississippi's performance in Grade 4 reading in last year's administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep). According to the AP report, the so-called Mississippi miracle consists in such things as these:

In its lengthy piece, the AP correctly reports that Mississippi "went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for [Grade 4] reading to 21st in 2022." Indeed, Mississippi's fourth graders slightly outscored the national average on this reading test.

The AP also reports that Mississippi has achieved "promising gains for low-income kids in particular." 

More precisely, the AP correctly notes that Mississippi was the second highest scoring state in the nation in that category on the Grade 4 reading test. Remarkably, Mississippi's lower-income kids outscored the national average on this Grade 4 test by almost one full academic year.

The AP reported such data correctly, but is everything as it seems with these heartening average scores?  We ask the same question about Mississippi's status as the fifth highest-performing state on the Grade 4 test among the nation's black kids:

Average scores, black students
Naep, Grade 4 reading, 2022
Washington state: 209.79
Massachusetts: 207.41
Florida: 206.82
Arizona: 205.19
Mississippi: 204.41
Texas: 203.98
Colorado: 203.88
New Jersey: 203.42
Maryland: 202.49
Georgia: 202.31

U.S. public schools:  198.12 

We showed you those statistics yesterday. Mississippi's black fourth graders produced the fifth highest average score in the nation, among the 39 states with a large enough number of black kids to produce a statistically useful score. They outscored the national average among their peers by more than half a year.

Those are some of the data behind what the AP headlined as the "Mississippi miracle." 

Summarizing, Mississippi outperformed the national average among fourth-black graders as a group. It ranked especially high among lower-income fourth graders and black fourth graders—scoring second and fifth in the nation, respectively.

To its vast credit, Mississippi has plainly been working very hard to improve its public school performance. We know of no reason—none at all—to think that anyone has misbehaved in any way in administration of the Naep.

That said, it has often turned out that impressive test scores aren't exactly what they seem. The Associated Press took those heartening data at face value.

In the past, this has often worked out poorly. Our question:

Should the AP have conducted a more detailed search?

THE SEARCH: The cheating had gone on for decades!

TUESDAY, MAY 30, 2023

Somehow it went undiscussed: The history of this type of boondoggle goes on and on and on.

After that, it goes on and on some more. Then it goes on and on.

We first learned about it in 1971 or 1972, in our third year as a fifth grade teacher in the Baltimore City Schools. We wrote about it in the Baltimore Sun, several times, in that very decade.

Roughly forty years after we found out, USA Today and the Atlanta Journal Constitution finally caught on! To their very substantial credit, they banged the drum quite loudly.

Briefly, everyone knew! Today, a type of cheerful gullibility may tend to linger on.

"Education experts" had remained clueless, at least in public, over the many long years. Education professors didn't address the issue. Neither did test publishers, some of whom—or so we were reliably told—had been neck-deep in one part of the interwoven network of scandals and scams.

We're speaking about deliberate cheating on standardized tests in the public schools, yielding those "miracle" stories. And yes, we're talking about outright "cheating"—not about milder conduct which might be described as "test prep," or even as "teaching to the test."

We first learned about it over dinner one night long ago. Forty years later, Dana Goldstein, then with Slate, wrote about the scandals which had finally emerged—which had finally been researched and reported—in several major cities. 

Goldstein's piece appeared in Slate on July 21, 2011. Dual headlines included, her report began as shown:

How High-Stakes Testing Led to the Atlanta Cheating Scandal
And the ones in Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, and Houston …

On July 5, Georgia released the results of a state investigation into suspicious test scores in the Atlanta public schools. The state reported that 178 educators in 44 of the district’s 100 schools had facilitated cheating—often with the tacit knowledge and even approval of high-level administrators, including Atlanta’s award-winning former superintendent Beverly Hall, who conveniently parked herself in Hawaii for the investigation’s denouement.

In the wake of this appalling ethical lapse, which resulted in thousands of Atlanta children—largely poor and black—being told they had acquired crucial academic skills they actually lack, the national media and education policy elite have mostly rushed to defend high-stakes testing policies.

Goldstein spoke about outright "cheating," not about "teaching to the test." With respect to the scandal in Atlanta, she spoke of an "appalling ethical lapse."

That was a severe understatement. 

What sorts of things had some teachers and administrators done—and not just in Atlanta? As she continued, Goldstein said that some teachers and administrators had done such things as this:

[T]he Atlanta case isn’t an isolated tragedy. A growing spate of evidence from around the country suggests that the most egregious practices in Atlanta—teachers purposefully seating struggling kids next to high-performing ones to encourage cheating on tests; educators gathering at after-school “erasure parties” to correct multiple-choice answer sheets—are part of a national, and indeed a historic trend, one that is bolstered by No Child Left Behind’s emphasis on pressuring educators to produce spectacular test results.

Yes, you read that correctly! In Atlanta, large numbers of "educators" had gathered at after-school “erasure parties” to correct multiple-choice answer sheets—to erase wrong answers on students' answer sheets, replacing them with the answers which were correct.

Teachers replaced wrong answers with correct answers! Unsurprisingly, test scores soared.

The conduct seems astonishing, especially when it's done in the open, among other teachers at "erasure parties." But no, this type of conduct hadn't surfaced in Atlanta alone. Continuing directly, Goldstein also wrote this:

Case in point: An explosive and underappreciated investigative series in USA Today this March documented 1,610 cases of standardized test-score manipulation in six states and Washington, D.C., between 2009 and 2010. The newspaper would have almost certainly found more cheating, but it zeroed in on only the most suspicious test-score leaps: those that statisticians said were about as likely to be legitimate as it would be to buy a winning Powerball ticket.

In many cases uncovered by USA Today, administrators were hesitant to investigate fishy test results, even when scores rose implausibly rapidly—say, from 5 percent math proficiency to 91 percent proficiency over the course of three years, as occurred in one Gainesville, Fla., elementary school...

In Washington, D.C., a father became suspicious of his daughter’s high math test scores, as the girl couldn’t perform basic arithmetic functions. One of then-chancellor Michelle Rhee’s favorite principals, Wayne Ryan of the Noyes Education Complex, responded by banning that parent from setting foot on campus. All in all, more than half of D.C. elementary schools, including Noyes, showed evidence of adult tampering with students’ standardized test answer sheets under Rhee’s administration, which paid principals and teachers up to $12,000 in annual bonuses for raising test scores. Wayne Ryan has since resigned in disgrace.

Atlanta wasn't alone! USA Today had reported widespread cheating in six additional states, but also in Washington, D.C., where press corps darling Michelle Rhee had built her career on the basis of transparently phony claims about the spectacular test scores she said she'd produced among her students as a Baltimore elementary school teacher.

Rhee's test score claims had never made sense. Now, as she sat at the chancellor's desk in D.C., the problem had gone systemwide.

At any rate, it had finally happened! All of a sudden, but ever so briefly, everybody suddenly knew about this kind of misconduct—a type of misconduct we'd first learned about, and written about, back in the 1970s. 

In Atlanta, the consequences of the misconduct were vast. Wikipedia offers this account of what happened when the law stepped in:

In 2009, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published analyses of Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT) results which showed statistically unlikely test scores, including extraordinary gains or losses in a single year. An investigation by the Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI) released in July 2011 indicated that 44 out of 56 schools cheated on the 2009 CRCT. One hundred and seventy-eight educators were implicated in correcting answers entered by students. Of these, 35 educators were indicted and all but 12 took plea deals; the remaining 12 went to trial. 

[...]

Prior to the scandal, the [Atlanta Public Schools] had been lauded for making significant gains in standardized test scores...Superintendent Beverly Hall, who served from 1999 to 2010, was named Superintendent of the Year in 2009. The GBI's report said Hall "knew or should have known" about the scandal. Hall's lawyer has denied she had any knowledge of cheating practices. In 2013, she was indicted in relation to her role in the matter...

The trial began on September 29, 2014, presided over by Fulton County Superior Court Judge Jerry Baxter. It was the longest criminal trial in Georgia history, lasting eight months. The lead prosecutor was Fani Willis. Before the end of the trial, the superintendent at the center of the scandal, Beverly Hall, died of breast cancer, aged 68.

Eleven of the twelve defendants were convicted on racketeering charges. As recently as last year, seven of the teachers were still appealing their convictions. 

Even at that late date, complaints were still being lodged about these prosecutions. Such complaints alleged excessive zeal on the part of prosecutors, who had brought these cases under the kinds of RICO statutes normally reserved for mobsters.

That said, no one has ever claimed that widespread cheating didn't occur, whether in Atlanta or elsewhere. For one brief shining moment, everyone seemed to know that reports of miraculous test score gains shouldn't necessarily be taken at face value—and that teachers and administrators will sometimes engage in astonishing conduct in order to produce such gains.

At this juncture, we stress two extremely important points:

The cheating didn't occur on the Naep:

None of the cheating in Atlanta had occurred on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep), the highly regarded gold standard of domestic educational testing.

In Atlanta and in D.C., the cheating had taken place on the annual statewide testing programs which were being widely used at that time to evaluate school systems, principals, teachers and schools. 

The federally-run Naep is a very different kind of testing program. Until fairly recently, there had never been any obvious incentive for teachers or principals to cheat on the administration of the Naep. Because of the way the Naep is administered, it would be much more difficult for some educator to do so.

This has no direct connection to the alleged "Mississippi miracle:"

We are not suggesting that some such cheating has been involved in the improved statewide Naep scores in Grade 4 reading in the state of Mississippi.

We make no such suggestion. We know of zero reason—none at all—to say that any such cheating has been involved in those large test score gains, which the Associated Press discussed in this May 17 report. 

We offer this bit of recent history to raise a broader point:

Over the course of the past fifty years, major news orgs have routinely thrilled to heartwarming claims of miraculous test score gains. 

Everybody loves the story of the little, low-performing school or school system which could! Everybody loves the story of the underperforming school which found a way to produce miraculous gains. 

Everyone loves the (Rhee-style) story of the insanely hard-working individual teacher who produced miraculous gains from her or his struggling class.

Our journalists have always loved those stories. Our experts have kept their traps shut.

Routinely, such stories have turned out to be bogus. But nothing cools the desire to believe in The Low-Income Grade School Which Could.

It seems to us that a similar type of gullibility may be surrounding those "heartening" claims about the AP's "Mississippi miracle." It seems to us that the AP report blew right past a certain reform in Mississippi which may have created a situation in which that pleasing rise in Grade 4 scores may not quite be what it seems.

Again, we know of zero reason to think that anyone in Mississippi has actually done something wrong. But oh, what kind of journalism is this which goes from bad to briefly aware, and then tilts back toward worse?

There's a lot to learn in this recent story about the way our national discourse works. Journalistically, it's a story of the relentless appeal of Preferred Upbeat Storyline. It may also be a story about a never-ending lack of technical prowess and curiosity, in this case among education writers.

Diogenes is said to have searched for one honest man. In Walker Percy's debut novel, The Moviegoer, Binx Bolling explicitly conducts a "search" which was "what anyone would undertake if he were not sunk in the everydayness of his own life."

Way back in 1971, we were first told about outright cheating on standardized tests in a Baltimore public school. Ever since then, we've conducted an intermittent search.

That search has taught us that it isn't wise to assume that claims of "miracles" will turn out to be well-founded.

There's a lot to learn from this bit of history—a lot to learn about the way our feeble brains have conducted our modern national discourse concerning a wide set of topics. 

In this case, the cheating had been going on forever. Somehow, it had gone undiscussed!

Tomorrow: What we learned from two friends in 1971. 

Also, what we were told by a major testing executive roughly ten years later.

RESUMING TOMORROW: The Undiscussed!

MONDAY, MAY 29, 2023

Does anyone care about black kids? Has a miracle occurred in the public schools of Mississippi?

Has something resembling a miracle taken place there? If so, why don't our major blue tribe news organs ever discuss it?

You may be old enough to remember when we started our current search. We started the search last Monday, in response to this gruesome bit of gab on the May 18 Morning Joe:

SCARBOROUGH (5/18/23): I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break, about reading in Mississippi and Alabama. 

I mean, you know, Mississippi—two states I love, two states I've lived in. Two states when I hear we're 49th in this, 50th in that, I roll my eyes.

Did you read about the "Mississippi miracle" yesterday? That Mississippi's reading scores have shot way up?

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yeah.

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: The Alabama miracle? It's so heartening, and maybe offers a road map for other areas in states that may be doing better but where there are pockets of illiteracy, to do better.

So began a "really quick" discussion of a miraculous state of affairs. It was a discussion of an alleged miracle in a pair of Deep South states. 

Everyone pretended they knew about this important miracle. As roughly ninety seconds passed, this "really quick" pseudo-conversation became even more insincere. 

The gab got even more phony! But as you can see, Scarborough was claiming that a miracle has occurred in the public schools of Mississippi and Alabama. Everybody on the set pretended to be thrilled.

Joe's gab was based on an AP report which appeared on May 17. For the record, the report described a "miracle" in only one state, Mississippi, though two other states were praised. 

Has a miracle really occurred in Mississippi's public schools? Headline included, the AP report started like this:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

It’s a cliché that Kymyona Burk heard a little too often: “Thank God for Mississippi.”

As the state’s literacy director, she knew politicians in other states would say it when their reading test scores were down—because at least they weren’t ranked as low as Mississippi. Or Louisiana. Or Alabama.

Lately, the way people talk about those states has started to change. Instead of looking down on the Gulf South, they’re seeing it as a model.

Mississippi went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for fourth-grade reading to 21st in 2022. Louisiana and Alabama, meanwhile, were among only three states to see modest gains in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, which saw massive learning setbacks in most other states.

The turnaround in these three states has grabbed the attention of educators nationally, showing rapid progress is possible anywhere, even in areas that have struggled for decades with poverty and dismal literacy rates. The states have passed laws adopting similar reforms that emphasize phonics and early screenings for struggling kids.

“In this region, we have decided to go big,” said Burk, now a senior policy fellow at ExcelinEd, a national advocacy group.

These Deep South states were not the first to pass major literacy laws; in fact, much of Mississippi’s legislation was based on a 2002 law in Florida that saw the Sunshine State achieve some of the country’s highest reading scores. The states also still have far to go to make sure every child can read.

But the country has taken notice of what some have called the Mississippi miracle...

Mississippi decided to emphasize phonics. After that, a miracle occurred!

Briefly, let's be fair. The term "miracle" is used here as an example of the familiar human practice known as "Storyline hyperbole."

No one is saying that a literal "miracle" has taken place in Mississippi's schools. They're saying that "rapid progress is possible anywhere" (even in states our blue tribe mocks) if you adopt the phonics / "early screening" policies pioneered by Florida under Governor Jeb Bush.

After Mississippi adopted those policies, it "went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for fourth-grade reading to 21st in 2022."  That's a reference to average scores in Grade 4 reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep), the highly-regarded gold standard of American educational testing.

Plainly, 21st best out of fifty states isn't a miracle. That said, if everything is as it seems, it does seem to constitute an example of "rapid progress."

Let's continue to be fair:

As we showed you last week, data from that Grade 4 reading test do seem to support the claim that significant progress has occurred in Mississippi.

Not to bore you, but after you "disaggregate" scores from that Grade 4 test, this is where Mississippi's black kids currently stand, or at least seem to stand, as compared to their counterparts around the nation:

Average scores, black students, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
Washington state: 209.79
Massachusetts: 207.41
Florida: 206.82
Arizona: 205.19
Mississippi: 204.41
Texas: 203.98
Colorado: 203.88
New Jersey: 203.42
Maryland: 202.49
Georgia: 202.31

U.S. public schools:  198.12 

Last year, those were the ten highest-scoring states on this important measure. Let's get clear on what those data show, or at least seem to show:

According to last year's Grade 4 Naep, Mississippi was the fifth highest-scoring state on this important measure. (For the record, that's fifth best out of the 39 states with a large enough black student population to generate a statistically valid average score.) 

Mississippi's black kids scored fifth best out of 39 states! If everything is at it seems, it seems that something very good has happened in this state, with the possibility that its policies could generate progress elsewhere.

Colloquially, this is a miracle—and yet it goes undiscussed! 

More specifically, the AP report generated about 90 seconds of factually bungled gab on Morning Joe. You've heard nothing about it anywhere else where blue tribe pablum is sold.

Does anyone actually care about the lives and the interests (and the happiness) of black kids? More specifically, does anyone in our own blue tribe care about such kids, except for performative purposes?

For years, we've told you the answer is no. The fact that this topic goes undiscussed is what we've been talking about.

Assuming that everything is as it seems, Mississippi's black fourth graders seem to be on a roll, at least as compared to their peers around the nation.

Nobody seems to care about this! Meanwhile, is everything the way it seems with respect to those recent Naep data?

We have nothing but the highest respect for the efforts Mississippi seems to be making in its public schools. But it seems to us that those data may be a bit misleading—that they may exaggerate the amount of progress being achieved in this state.

Starting tomorrow, we'll tell you why we say that. For today, we'll remind you of this:

Topics like this are never discussed by Rachel or Lawrence, and surely not by Nicolle. Along with the rest of their cable news colleagues, they'd rather jump off the Golden Gate Bridge than bore you with apparent good news about the lives and the interests of a bunch of the nation's black kids.

They play you and play you and play you again. (They may not realize that they're doing that.) That "really quick" gabfest on Morning Joe was an insincere, clownishly bungled case in point.

(Nothing dimly resembling an "Alabama miracle" has taken place.)

In our view, we vastly self-impressed blue tribe denizens badly need to start finding ways to get over ourselves. The Morning Joe gang was in gruesome bad faith in that bit of drive-by drivel. But so are heralded tribunes across the sweep of our self-admiring blue tribe!

As we entertain ourselves chasing Trump, Mississippi's black kids go undiscussed. Today, we leave you with a question:

Given our tribe's vast moral greatness, why do you think that is?

Tomorrow: Something we learned way back when

As always: For all Naep data, start here.

Future Historians Living in Trees explain demise of U.S.!

SATURDAY, MAY 27, 2023

Wallace TV program cited: Centuries ahead of where we are now, Future Historians Living in Trees are already preparing the textbooks, according to sources familiar.

They may be forced to live in trees following the cataclysmic defeat of the West, but the historians in question are highly eminent. 

BREAKING! They're attributing the end of the American experiment to "the democratization of media." More specifically, they're attributing this cataclysmic downfall to the creation and implementation of round-the-clock, profit-based "cable news."

(Full disclosure: Spokespersons for these future scholars communicate through the nocturnal submissions the haters refer to as "dreams.")

Last evening, those spokespersons offered a case in point. They cited a 20-minute "discussion" of the ongoing debt limit crisis on yesterday's Deadline: White House.

At issue was Donald J. Trump's role in the ongoing negotiations. Here's the way the lengthy segment went down:

After MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace introduced three of "our favorite reporters and friends," the pundits conducted themselves in a way which resembled the type of interaction once known as a "discussion."

For twenty minutes, the favorites pretended to conduct a news discussion. Right from the start, the presentation aired above this alarming chyron:

BREAKING NEWS
TRUMP URGING GOP TO LET U.S. DEFAULT ON ITS DEBT

The analysts came right out of their chairs! Has Donld J.  Trump been urging the GOP to do that? Has he been doing that in a way which could be described as BREAKING NEWS?

Granted, Trump had made a deeply worrying set of remarks concerning this matter during his gruesome CNN "town hall" broadcast. We specifically cited those worrying (and childish) remarks in real time. 

But that event had occurred all the way back on May 10. Our question, therefore, was this:

Has Trump been urging the GOP to default in the days and weeks since then? Has he been urging this conduct in a way which can responsibly and accurately be described as BREAKING NEWS?

Has Trump been urging such terrible conduct in the days and weeks since then? We were surprised by the Wallace chyron, because we had read this passage in a front-page report in the New York Times just yesterday morning.

We include the upbeat front-page headline from yesterday' front-page report:

White House and G.O.P. Close In on Deal to Raise Debt Limit and Cut Spending

[...]

Former President Donald J. Trump, who has said Republicans should force a default if they do not get what they want in the negotiations, also was weighing in. Mr. McCarthy told reporters he had spoken with Mr. Trump briefly about the negotiations—“it came up just for a second,” the speaker said. “He was talking about, ‘Make sure you get a good agreement.’”

After playing a tee shot on his golf course outside Washington, Mr. Trump approached a reporter for The New York Times, iPhone in hand, and showed a call with Mr. McCarthy.

“It’s going to be an interesting thing—it’s not going to be that easy,” said Mr. Trump, who described his call with the speaker as “a little, quick talk.”

“They’ve spent three years wasting money on nonsense,” he added, saying, “Republicans don’t want to see that, so I understand where they’re at.”

That was the end of the front-page report. With that in mind:

Has Trump been urging the GOP to let the United States default? A pair of high-ranking Times reporters seemed to be unaware of this BREAKING NEWS.

What was Wallace talking about during her twenty-minute segment? Specifically, in what way has Trump been "urging the GOP to let the U.S. default?"

Early on, she cited this recent report in Vanity Fair—a recent report which makes no such claim about Trump. Exactly ten minutes into the scrum, she offered this trademark bit of incompetence-laced misstatement:

WALLACE (5/26/23): Here's Donald Trump. Oh, I'm sorry, I don't have it, because I—

[LAUGHTER]

[NOW READING]

So Trump says, "I say to the Republicans out there, Congress and senators, if they don't give you massive cuts, you're going to have to do a default."

[LOOKS UP FROM HER PAPERS]

"Do a default?" I don't think that's what anyone says.

[RETURNS TO READING STATEMENT BY TRUMP]

"And I don't believe they're going to do a default because I think the Democrats will absolutely cave because you don't want that to happen."

[STOPS READING] 

Again, with his massive platform that he enjoys there, that is perhaps the loudest voice people have heard from him on the default.

So spoke Wallace, reading a statement by Trump. 

Initially, she seemed to think that she'd be playing videotape of a statement by Trump. Instead, she had to read the text of his statement, a statement for which she didn't provide a source or a date.

Even there, Trump was saying that a default was something "you don't want to happen." In the statement Wallace read, he was recommending a hard bargaining stance by the GOP.  

He wasn't explicitly urging default. But then again, also this:

In fact, the statement Wallace read had been made at the May 10 "town hall" event. Everywhere else, it was sixteen days old. Here, it was said to be BREAKING NEWS.

Wallace's chyron was an inaccurate paraphrase of that statement by Trump. But in no sense did that statement by Trump constitute some sort of BREAKING NEWS.

We're sorry, but that just isn't the case. In the course of twenty minutes, none of her favorites said so.

We'll only tell you what Future Historians Living in Trees have apparently already said:

Nicolle Wallace is a policy flyweight and an instinctive dissembler. She should be on the air two hours a day in much the way that Donald J. Trump should be playing center field for the Yankees.

Now for the apparent history of our disastrous era:

According to the history texts those future scholars have reportedly assembled, blue tribe cable had become almost as disingenuous as red tribe cable by June 2023.

So went "the democratization of media" as the American experiment eventually crashed to the ground.

In our own view, Wallace shouldn't be on the air on anything like a "news channel." 

In private life, she may be a good and decent person—we aren't equipped to tell you. But as a journalist, she and her endless list of (compensated) favorites and friends are, in large part, conducting a daily clown show. 

On the whole, her daily program is two hours of blue tribe comfort food. More and more and more and more, it's propaganda-adjacent.

Journalistically, Wallace is largely a clown; on balance, her favorites and friends are enablers. According to future scholars, blue tribe cable got dumber and dumber, but also more and more phony, with each passing day.

We return you to yesterday's Times report. It included no sign that Donald J. Trump has been behaving in the manner described by Wallace and her friends. 

There was no such BREAKING NEWS to report. That chyron was a deception.

Meanwhile, consider this: 

This childish, friends-based TV format began in the 1950s. It got its start with The Mickey Mouse Club, a Disney program aimed at people who were seven or eight years old.

If you want a modern-day version for adults, tune in to Wallace's show.

Yesterday's segment was full of misstatements by Wallace. On the brighter side, to borrow from Warren Zevon, [her] hair was perfect, which makes for "good TV."

To watch the entire twenty minutes, you can start here. This is the way the west was lost, or so say despondent historians.

THE UNDISCUSSED: Alabama miracle further explored!

FRIDAY, MAY 26, 2023

Three cheers for Mississippi's black kids (if everything is as it seems): As readers nay know, we don't (do not) recommend holding contempt for other people.

That said:

If not for that wise admonition, it would be hard to have sufficient contempt for "cable news" bluebirds who function in the manner shown below.

We do allow feelings of contempt with respect to people's occasional actions. Keeping that in mind, we don't recommend contempt for the cable stars who produced the exchange shown below.

We don't recommend contempt for the people! We do allow you to feel contempt for what these bluebirds said:

SCARBOROUGH (5/18/23): I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break, about reading in Mississippi and Alabama. 

I mean, you know, Mississippi—two states I love, two states I've lived in. Two states when I hear we're 49th in this, 50th in that, I roll my eyes.

Did you read about the "Mississippi miracle" yesterday? That Mississippi's reading scores have shot way up?

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yeah.

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: The Alabama miracle? It's so heartening, and maybe offers a road map for other areas in states that may be doing better but where there are pockets of illiteracy, to do better.

That was Joe Scarborough, and two willing guests, pretending that they knew about, and were heartened by, the so-called "Mississippi miracle." 

One day before, this miracle had given headline status by the Associated Press. In a pseudo-discussion which lasted something like 90 seconds, everyone on the Morning Joe set pretended that they knew about, and cared about, the heartening matter at hand.

They did so "really quickly." Along the way, Scarborough even seemed to announce an Alabama miracle, along with the miracle occurring next door to that state.

As you may recall, the AP report dealt with one lone measure of academic progress. It dealt with statewide scores in Grade 4 reading on the 2022 administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep), the gold standard of American public school testing.

The AP report had dealt with Grade 4 reading on the Naep, and with nothing else. With that in mind, has an Alabama miracle occurred in recent years? Here are Alabama's actual scores on this important measure:

Average scores, Grade 4 teading, Alabama
Naep, 2011 - 2022
2011: 220.27
2013: 218.58
2015: 217.05
2017: 216.42
2019: 211.73
2022: 213.30

Based on this important measure, does it look an "Alabama miracle" has somehow taken place? 

Stating the obvious, Scarborough had no idea what he was talking about when he declared this miracle. The other stars on the Morning Joe set were, of course, equally clueless.

(They did know how blue tribe pundits are expected to behave when such claims occur, as they periodically do.)

That said, there you see the actual scores which Scarborough described as a miracle. Alabama's fourth-graders had actually lost a substantial amount of ground in the decade which the AP report had used as a basic framework. Scarborough said this was a miracle, and his gushing guests agreed to agree with his claims.

It would be hard to have sufficient contempt for behavior of this type, except for the fact that this type of behavior has been so common down through the many long years. 

In truth, no one in the upper-end press corps cares about the lower-income kids of those Gulf Coast states, and no one ever has. 

Instead, our journalists have routinely enjoyed occasional bursts in which they go along with heart-warming claims about major academic progress in some lower-income locale. They never know what they're talking about and, quite plainly, they really don't actually care.

(According to experts with whom we consult, this doesn't mean that they're bad people. It means that they're people people.)

At any rate, this behavior has been very common within our horrific blue tribe. Our bluebirds pleasure us with such claims, and we bluebells return to our slumbers.

In this instance, we're talking about Scarbrough's absurd attempt to pretend that a miracle has occurred in Alabama. The AP report made no such claim. In fairness, we know of no reason to assume that Scarborough actually knew that.

In fact, no miracle has occurred in Alabama—not even within the limited world of the Grade 4 reading test. That said, has a miracle occurred in Mississippi? Just to put that claim in perspective, here are the scores for the three states at issue from last year's Grade 8 reading test:

Average scores, Grade 8 reading
Naep, 2022
U.S. public schools: 259.11
Mississippi: 252.93
Alabama: 250.90
Louisiana: 256.65

(The "Main Neap" tests reading and math in Grades 4, 8 and 12.)

Has a miracle taken place, even in Mississippi? If so, it doesn't seem to have reached students in the eighth grade, though it could always get there in the end.

It's hard to have sufficient contempt for the behavior of the Morning Joe gang, none of whom had the slightest idea what they were gushing about. For the record:

After their "really quick" pseudo-discussion, they hurried back to their favorite activity. They pleasured us with amazingly repetitive speculations about frog-marching Trump off to jail. 

Trump may end up going to jail, but good, decent kids in those Deep South states will definitely be going to school if he actually does. That includes the many lower-income kids in those Deep South states, along with the many black kids in those states' public schools.

Within the realm of the upper-end press corps, no one actually cares about any such kids. No one has ever cared about such kids, and there is absolutely zero sign that anyone ever will.

That said, we're being a bit unfair to Mississippi (and to Alabama) when we offer the statistics we have offered above. If we're trying to assess the performance of those states' public schools, it must be noted that those states have a higher proportion of (typically) lower-scoring kids than many other states do. 

Sadly, everyone but the high-end bluebirds understands a basic fact. Sadly but surely, to assess the performance of public schools, you have to "disaggregate" test scores in the manner we'll do below.

You have to see how well a given state is doing with its lower-income kids. Also, with its black kids—with a demographic group which has suffered from "achievement gaps," one more legacy of our nation's brutal racial history.

How well does Mississippi do when we disaggregate its Naep scores? Good golly! If everything is as it seems, the state does remarkably well!

Again, the AP report considered only one measure—Grade 4 reading on the Naep. With that in mind, here's how Mississippi scored on that measure last year with its lower-income kids, according to basic Naep data:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading, lower-income students
Naep, 2022
U.S. public schools: 202.67
Mississippi: 211.74
Alabama: 201.07
Louisiana: 204.26

For all Naep data, start here. (As is customary in these matters, "lower-income" refers to students who are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch within the federal lunch program.)

Yikes! When we review the performance of lower-income kids, Mississippi outpaced the national norm by almost a full academic year!

Louisiana slightly outscored the nation too. Alabama wasn't real far behind.

Assuming that everything is as it seems, Mississippi's performance does seem quite impressive. Also, here are the relevant data for the black kids in those states:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading, black students
Naep, 2022
U.S. public schools: 198.12
Mississippi: 204.41
Alabama: 197.13
Louisiana: 197.45

Yowza! Assuming everything is as it seems, Mississippi's black kids outperformed their counterparts across the nation by a significant margin.

For ourselves, we wouldn't say that those scores constitute a miracle. But assuming that everything is as it seems, those scores do seem impressive. That's especially true in these Deep South states, concerning which the worst has traditionally been expected.

Assuming everything is at it seems, we happily offer that assessment of Mississippi's performance. Just for the record, here are the average scores for some other states on this all-important measure:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading, black students
Naep, 2022
U.S. public schools: 198.12
Mississippi: 204.41
Florida: 206.82
Texas: 203.98
Georgia: 202.31

Massachusetts: 207.41
New Jersey: 203.42
New York: 194.38
California: 193.74
Illinois: 193.57
Minnesota: 193.29
Ohio: 190.12
Michigan: 187.93
Wisconsin: 185.76

Some of our favorite Yankee states scored relatively well. Absent further disaggregation, others scored rather poorly. 

We'll note that three of our larger rebel states joined Mississippi in outperforming the national norm. So did the rebel state of South Carolina, though only by a single point, with North Carolina right at the national average.

Assuming that everything is as it seems, those data might seem surprising. Also, you might be struck by the low average scores from such well-known states as New York, California and Illinois, not to mention the woeful numbers in Michigan and Wisconsin.

You might be surprised by such scores! Almost surely, you've never seen any such data before, for the world's most obvious reason:

No one cares about any of this, and no one ever has! That said, is everything really as it seems with those scores from Mississippi? 

Last week, the AP announced that a miracle had taken place in that state. In a clownish display of a common disorder, Scarborough quickly extended that happy talk to Alabama as well.

That said, is everything as it seems with those important Naep data? Again and again and again and again, miracle stories of this type have fallen apart, down through the years, within various state-run testing programs, though not on the federal Naep. 

In the end, it fell to much-maligned USA Today and to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to blow the whistle on the most egregious circumstances in which impressive score gains had been produced by fraudulent conduct. 

(The New York Times and the Washington Post would have to be marked absent.)

The leading authority on the Atlanta scandal offers this overview. You may see a newly famous name in this brief excerpt from a longer report:

In 2009, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published analyses of Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT) results which showed statistically unlikely test scores, including extraordinary gains or losses in a single year. An investigation by the Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI) released in July 2011 indicated that 44 out of 56 schools cheated on the 2009 CRCT. One hundred and seventy-eight educators were implicated in correcting answers entered by students. Of these, 35 educators were indicted and all but 12 took plea deals; the remaining 12 went to trial. The size of the scandal has been described as one of the largest in United States education history.

[...]

The trial began on September 29, 2014, presided over by Fulton County Superior Court Judge Jerry Baxter. It was the longest criminal trial in Georgia history, lasting eight months. The lead prosecutor was Fani Willis. Before the end of the trial, the superintendent at the center of the scandal, Beverly Hall, died of breast cancer, aged 68.

Fani Willis prosecuted the case! For the record, the late Beverly Hall had been named national Superintendent of the Year on the basis of the fraudulent scores achieved in Atlanta's schools during her tenure.

We know of exactly zero reason to believe that any fraudulent conduct is involved in Mississippi's Grade 4 reading scores on the Naep. Let us highlight that key fact:

In the case of Mississippi's Naep scores, we know of zero reason to suspect any fraudulent conduct.

Havin said that, we'll add this:

We do see one part of that AP report which makes us wonder if everything is really as it seems in the case of this alleged miracle. We'll walk you through that part of this topic next week.

In the meantime, we'll ask you this: Where were the "education experts" as those actual scandals were taking place down through the years?

For ourselves, we'd written about this sort of thing in the Baltimore Sun dating all the back to the late 1970s. Our assorted adventures in this realm continued on from there.

Where were the educational experts—where were the academics and the major journalists—as these scams went on and on? Our partial answer is this:

No one shows the slightest sign of caring about any of this! More specifically, no one seems to care about Mississippi's black kids, who are so good and so decent, or about their good, decent parents.

Joe Scarborough didn't know what he was talking about last week. Neither did his reliable chorus of echo-adjacent guests.

He did know that he wanted to speak "really quickly" about this heartening topic. This isn't the product his channel sells to us, its customers from our self-impressed blue tribe.

Down through the years, it's been like this within our blue tribe as the nation's black kids have gone undiscussed. Our major journalists don't seem to care about those deserving kids.

They may not realize that they don't care. But if you watch blue cable each day—if you watch "our favorite reporters and friends"—the evidence is blindingly clear, from Joe and Nicolle and Lawrence and Rachel all the way down to the echoes.

They simply don't care about any of this! Few things could be more clear. 

Next week: Is everything as it seems?

A parting gift: Once again, some basic data which may seem surprising. On this occasion, we include a remarkable number from our Department of Defense schools:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading, black students
Naep, 2022
Florida: 206.82
Texas: 203.98
Georgia: 202.31

U.S. public schools: 198.12

New York: 194.38
California: 193.74
Illinois: 193.57
Michigan: 187.93
Wisconsin: 185.76

Department of Defense schools: 226.27

Assuming that everything is as it seems, black kids whose parents are in the military are doing remarkably well.

You've never seen data like these before. Why do we think that is?

We don't expect to be posting today!

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023

We expect to be posting tomorrow: As previously announced, we don't expect to be posting today. We expect to be posting tomorrow.

Today's semantic puzzler:

Has a book been "banned" when a single K-8 elementary/middle school decides to move it from the elementary grades section of its library to the middle school section? 

Related question: 

How many regular, K-5 elementary schools have a copy of the book in question in their school libraries? (We don't know the answer to that question.)

Related puzzler: Has the book been "banned" by K-5 schools which don't have the book on their shelves?

For background to this latest topic, see the Washington Post.

We live in a deeply tribal time—in an era whose prevailing impulse might perhaps be described as No Loudly Voiced Sense of Outrage Left Behind. 

Tribunes sell outrage as a product. In a large, diverse, continental nation, is this approach to the world likely to turn out well?

Compare and contrast. Discuss.

THE UNDISCUSSED: Have Alabama's test scores soared?

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023

Let's take a look at the data: Have Alabama's test scores soared? The headline on last week's AP report seemed to say that they have.

Also, a miracle had been spotted in Mississippi! As we noted yesterday, the AP headline said this:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

As we noted yesterday, the three Deep South states to which the headline refers were Mississippi and Alabama, along with Louisiana. The report refers to test scores recorded on last year's National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep), in Grade 4 reading alone.

(The "Main Naep" tests reading and math in Grades 4. 8 and 12.)

That said, have Grade 4 reading scores in these three states really soared? Below, you see some average scores in Grade 4 reading over the past eleven years:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2011:
U.S. public schools: 220.03
Mississippi: 209.19
Alabama: 220.27
Louisiana: 210.41

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2013:
U.S. public schools: 220.67
Mississippi: 208.52
Alabama: 218.58
Louisiana: 210.45

[...]

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
U.S. public schools:  216.11
Mississippi: 217.16
Alabama: 213.30
Louisiana: 212.34

Oof! Over the course of the past decade, Alabama's Grade 4 average has actually dropped, by roughly seven points—by about two-thirds of one academic year. 

Over the course of that same period, Louisiana's Grade 4 average has risen, but by slightly less than two points—by less than a quarter of a year. 

As we noted yesterday, the Grade 4 scores in those two states trailed the national average last year, though the post-pandemic drop in the national average brought them closer to the national norm.

That said, have Grade 4 reading scores in these two states actually "soared?" It's hard to think of a reason for saying that. In Alabama, the average score has declined over the past dozen years!

By way of contrast, the Grade 4 score in Mississippi's schools has shown a substantial increase. Judged by a very rough but widely used rule of thumb, Mississippi's average score was almost one year higher last year than it had been in those earlier years—and the state had (very slightly) surpassed the national average.

Assuming everything is as it seems, Mississippi has shown a strong score gain, but would you want to call that a "miracle?" Based upon the rocky history of such claims, we'd advise a strong measure of caution.

Alas! American journalists have always been strongly inclined to run with "miraculous test score" stories. Such claims have often turned out to be fraudulent, but none of this stops our national journalists from a rush to embrace the next "heartening" report of a miraculous rise in allegedly "soaring" test scores.

In this case, it's hard to say that Grade 4 reading scores have "soared" in Alabama and Louisiana, but scores have risen in Mississippi. Assuming that everything is as it seems, serious people should want to know the source of this apparent progress.

That said, is everything as it seems in this particular case? Time and again, it has turned out that everything isn't as it seems when reports of miraculous score gains have briefly warmed journalists' hearts. 

Last Thursday, the Morning Joe gang devoted roughly 90 seconds to this heartening story. Going beyond what the AP report claimed, Joe Scarborough even claimed that an "Alabama miracle" had occurred.

In the course of that Morning Joe miracle, Alabama's fourth graders had actually lost two points off their average reading score! Historically, people like Scarborough have been eager to exult, and then they quickly move on.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep, but the coverage of this topic has routinely been clownishly incompetent. For today, we're forced to restrict ourselves to this truncated report. Beyond that, we don't expect to be able to post at all tomorrow.

When we return to this topic, we'll show you more about the rise in average scores in Mississippi. Because we've learned that we must never take such heartening reports at face value, we'll also show you something we would have examined with a great deal more care before we published a report like the one the AP published.

Have Alabama's test scores soared? That seems like a very strange claim.

That said, hyperbole has long been in the saddle when it comes to reports of this type. Such claims have often crashed and burned.

Our question: Does anyone care?

As always: For all Naep data, start here.

THE UNDISCUSSED: Miracle spotted in Mississippi!

TUESDAY, MAY 23, 2023

A claim that scores have soared: "I want to talk really quickly," Morning Joe's chief host said.

He wanted to "talk really quickly" about a topic which is rarely discussed by our blue tribe's tribunes and journalists. He wanted to discuss a miracle which had occurred in Mississippi—a miracle which had occurred in that state's public schools.

The discussion began at 6:46 A.M.; it was over by 6:47. As we showed you yesterday, this is the way it began:

SCARBOROUGH (5/18/23): I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break, about reading in Mississippi and Alabama. 

I mean, you know, Mississippi—two states I love, two states I've lived in. Two states when I hear we're 49th in this, 50th in that, I roll my eyes.

Did you read about the "Mississippi miracle" yesterday? That Mississippi's reading scores have shot way up?

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yeah.

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: The Alabama miracle? It's so heartening, and maybe offers a road map for other areas in states that may be doing better but where there are pockets of illiteracy, to do better.

Reading scores in public schools almost never get discussed at all. On this rare occasion, Morning Joe devoted something like ninety seconds to the claim that a miracle had occurred in the Mississippi schools.

As we noted yesterday, the miracle had been reported in a lengthy AP report. The headline had said this:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

For the record, the AP report, by Sharon Lurye, had described no Alabama miracle, heartening or otherwise. Scarborough was already embellishing a report he had most likely skimmed, if that.

That said, the headline on the AP report really did seem to be claiming a "miracle" in Mississippi. It also said that public school reading scores have "soared" in (plural) Deep South states.

Claims of "miracles" in public schools have a long, unimpressive track record. That said, this AP report was so impressive that it generated ninety seconds of discussion on a major cable news program.

Even if for those few moments, the Morning Joe gang had set aside their more typical speculations about arcane legal issues involving Donald J. Trump. For today, let's start to review what was actually said in the lengthy AP report.

Has a "miracle" really occurred in Mississippi's schools? Inevitably, a bit of hyperbole was likely involved in that (heartening) claim. Headline included, the report began as shown:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

It's a cliché that Kymyona Burk heard a little too often: “Thank God for Mississippi.”

As the state’s literacy director, she knew politicians in other states would say it when their reading test scores were down—because at least they weren’t ranked as low as Mississippi. Or Louisiana. Or Alabama.

Lately, the way people talk about those states has started to change. Instead of looking down on the Gulf South, they’re seeing it as a model.

Mississippi went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for reading to 21st in 2022. Louisiana and Alabama, meanwhile, were among only three states to see modest gains in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, which saw massive learning setbacks in most other states.

According to the AP report, people weren't laughing at three Deep South states any more.

With respect to Mississippi, it had been "the second-worst state for reading" as recently as 2013. In 2022, it had registered as 21st best—as the 21st best out of 50 states in all.

Depending on what we're talking about, that would be a substantial improvement. It might not qualify as a miracle in everyone's book. 

Meanwhile, two Gulf Coast neighbors—Alabama and Louisiana—had shown "modest gains" in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, during a time when many other states had seen substantial setbacks.

On that basis, Lurye reported this:

LURYE (continuing directly): The turnaround in these three states has grabbed the attention of educators nationally, showing rapid progress is possible anywhere, even in areas that have struggled for decades with poverty and dismal literacy rates. The states have passed laws adopting similar reforms that emphasize phonics and early screenings for struggling kids. 

It's true that educators have been paying attention to scores gains in these three Deep South states. That said, it isn't clear that a miracle has occurred in Mississippi, or that reading scores have "soared" elsewhere in the region.

For now, a bit of precision:

Lurye was referring to average statewide scores in Grade 4 reading from last year's administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep). The Naep is a federal program which has long been regarded as the gold standard of this nation's educational testing.

Last year, the Naep was administered for the first time since 2019—for the first time since the Covid pandemic struck, disrupting much public schooling. 

In the face of attendant disruptions in public schooling, Naep scores in reading and math had dropped on a nationwide basis over that three-year period. In Grade 4 reading, average scores had slightly improved in Alabama and Louisiana.

(The Naep tests students in reading and math at three grade levels—4, 8 and 12.)

In Mississippi, the average Grade 4 reading score did, in fact, slightly drop from 2019 to 2022. But the national average dropped even more, creating a situation where Mississippi's fourth-grade kids were actually outscoring their nationwide counterparts, if only by a slight amount.

Assuming everything is as it seems, this would be an impressive accomplishment for Mississippi's public schools. But had a miracle really occurred there, and had scores really "soared" in the other two states?

A hint of hyperbole may be involved in such claims. Here are the average scores in question:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
U.S. public schools:  216.11
Alabama:  213.30
Louisiana:  212.34
Mississippi:  217.16

According to a very rough but widely employed rule of thumb, ten points on the Naep scale is roughly equivalent to one academic year. 

Judged by that very rough rule of thumb, Mississippi had inched past the national average in Grade 4 reading. Alabama and Louisiana lagged a third to a half of a year behind the national average—and now, let's consider this:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
U.S. public schools: 216.11
Alabama: 213.30
Louisiana: 212.34
Mississippi: 217.16 

Florida: 224.74
Massachusetts: 226.80

At the risk of breaking hearts, we show you where the controversial state known as Florida stood on the Grade 4 reading test. Also Massachusetts, a traditionally high-performing state.

A whole lot remains to be said once we've looked at that first set of average scores. In a bit of a spoiler alert, Mississippi's performance looks even better when we look at the average scores for the state's low-income kids, and also for its black kids.

Having said that, we'll add this:

There exists a long, unhelpful history involving embellished claims of educational miracles and soaring test scores. 

Assuming everything is as it seems, Mississippi's score gains are indeed impressive. But it might be too soon to declare the latest miracle, or to say that the scores from the other two Gulf Coast states have "soared."

Also, we've included an awkward phrase on two occasions. Can we assume that everything is as it seems? We'll offer more on that awkward question as the week proceeds.

As you can see if you click this link, Scarborough gave this heartening topic ninety seconds, then returned to some enjoyable clowning. It's much as we have always told you:

No one cares about those Gulf Coast kids, and no one ever will.

Tomorrow: "Disaggregating" those scores

STARTING TOMORROW: The Undiscussed!

MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023

Miracles claimed and ignored: It was the most unlikely Morning Joe discussion of all time.

The discussion lasted less than two minutes. Last Thursday morning, at 6:46, it started exactly like this:

SCARBOROUGH (5/18/23): I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break...

He wanted to discuss a new topic "really quickly." Promises made, promises kept!

These are the kids we don't care about. Joe's statement continued as shown:

SCARBOROUGH: I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break, about reading in Mississippi and Alabama. 

I mean, you know, Mississippi—two states I love, two states I've lived in. Two states when I hear we're 49th in this, 50th in that, I roll my eyes.

Did you read about the "Mississippi miracle" yesterday? That Mississippi's reading scores have shot way up?

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yeah.

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: The Alabama miracle? It's so heartening, and maybe offers a road map for other areas in states that may be doing better but where there are pockets of illiteracy, to do better.

In fact, there was no claim of an "Alabama miracle," heartening or otherwise, in the news report in question. At issue was a lengthy AP report, whose headline offered this:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

The AP report was written by Sharon Lurye. Wisely or otherwise, it posited a "Mississippi miracle," but none in some other state.

The AP report was widely reprinted. As you can see, it was reprinted by the PBS NewsHour. It was also reprinted within the (online) Washington Post, where it was strangely categorized as a Lifestyle report.

It dealt with Grade 4 reading scores in last year's administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep), the federally-run program which is widely regarded as the gold standard of our nation's educational testing.

Last year, the Naep was administered for the first time since the pandemic disrupted many public schooling procedures. In Grade 4 reading, Mississippi had (slightly) outperformed the national average. Alabama had not.

In fairness, Alabama's public school kids were less than half a year behind the national average in Grade 4 reading. On Morning Joe, that became the "Alabama miracle" as the topic was (very) briefly discussed before a commercial break.

Our posting will be light this week, but we'll focus on this topic. To some extent, we'll talk about the AP report, and about those new Naep scores.

For today, we'll start you off with an extremely basic observation. No one actually cares about the topic which was so briefly discussed last Thursday. Also, no one cares about the kids involved, or about their parents.

On Morning Joe, the discussion began at 6:46. It ended at 6:47. As we've told you for many years:

No one cares about low-income kids, especially within our own tribe!

Tomorrow: Let's take a look at the data

We'd never heard of the viral bike!

SATURDAY, MAY 20, 2023

Also, deaths in the District: We'll start with a quick confession:

We hadn't heard of the viral incident until this very morning. We'd never heard of the viral event involving the rental bike! 

This morning, the incident was mentioned at 7:30 by a caller to C-Span's Washington Journal. With apologies for some of this content, that first phone call went like this:

BUBBA FROM TENNESSEE (5/20/23): The biggest story is the white nurse who was pregnant. She tried to get on her rented bicycle and a couple of black thugs, young boys, were trying to strong-arm her and said it was their bike.

Then the racist lawyer that takes all these cases lied about it to her job. Later on, the news people, not y'all I don't guess because I don't even know if you know about it, they was quick to say that she was in the wrong, saying it was an Emmett Till deal. 

I just want to know if they're going to apologize to this lady. Her and her husband had to move for their safety.

C-SPAN HOST: Where did this happen?

BUBBA FROM TENNESSEE: I believe it happened in, up in New York, I believe. It happened yesterday.

C-SPAN HOST: O.K. We'll look it up and if we can find something about it, we'll share it.

We hadn't heard of this incident, which actually happened on May 10.  It sounded like the C-Span host hadn't heard of this incident either. 

That said, the incident had gone viral, starting with an iPhone video which has apparently been viewed more than 40 million times. For better or worse, this is "the democratization of media" in its fullest flower. 

We were curious about Bubba's call. At 7:49 A.M., a second C-Span caller disputed what Bubba had said:

DIONNE FROM VIRGINIA: My main reason why I called was the guy that was, I think he was from Tennessee, talking about the white lady trying to get on the bike, and the black quote-unquote "thugs" wouldn't let her get on the bike and all this stuff.

No. The boys had already purchased the bike, him and his friends, they had already purchased the bike by renting it, and then she's the one that came up and tried to take the bike.

Then, when she tried to come up there and take the bike, when they kept asking her, "What are you doing? We've already rented this bike," then she started yelling, "Help! Help!" trying to garner attention from all these bystanders. 

And by her yelling, "Help! Help!" then there was some white man that came over asking like, "What's going on?" So that was another Emmett Till situation, when the guys were already recording the whole thing.

She tried to take the bike when they had already rented the bike. Then by her yelling. "Help! Help!" trying to get people's attention because these black people are trying to make it seem like they were doing something to her when they literally were not doing anything to her. 

That's why the news is trying to say it was another Emmett Till situation. So for that man to call up there and try to say that they were "thugs" and doing all this other stuff, when literally she was taking their bike they had already rented, that's what I wanted to say because I hated that he called up here trying to say that. 

Thank you.

The C-Span host then read a recent news report about this viral incident.

For starters, welcome to C-Span's Washington Journal! More generally, welcome to one current artefact of the "democratization of media."

We'd never heard of this incident until this very morning! As it turns out, the case of the pregnant physician's assistant and the rented bike had indeed gone viral.

Along the way, it had triggered some of the worst reporting we've ever seen, by at least two network news divisions. Inevitably, Ben Crump had instantly gotten involved. Instantly, he had offered a thoroughly uninformed instant tweet.

Also this:

Of the two calls to C-Span's Washington Journal, we'd have to say that Bubba's account of what seems to have happened looks to be substantially more accurate than the later account from Dionne.

Alas! Joined to our nation's brutal racial history, but also joined to the way our highly fallible brains are wired, the democratization of media has our nation in a state which produces an array of viral arguments like this.

That said, good God! The work by CBS News, and then by NBC News, has been so god-awful, so stunningly incompetent, that it almost defies comprehension. It's hard to believe that these networks employ people of such vast incompetence.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep, but you won't hear about this viral incident from most of our blue tribe news orgs. 

Red tribe voters in Tennessee have heard accounts of this incident. In this matter, what they've been hearing seems to be substantially more accurate than the account which still came, ten days later, from Dionne in Virginia, who was of course completely sincere in the various things she said.

Also this:

On a more competent journalistic plane, we had already read Colbert King's column in today's Washington Post when we sat down to watch Washington Journal. 

His column concerns shooting deaths—deaths of the innocent—right there in Washington, D.C. You won't hear about his column, or about the general topic, on blue tribe cable either. 

On balance, we'd have to say this:

Our blue tribe's major cable tribunes pretty much don't seem to care about shooting deaths of that particular type. They prefer to speculate, for hours, about Donald J. Trump, about when he'll be going to jail.

Based on what has come to be known, Bubba's account of what happened with that rental bike seems to be much more accurate than Dionne's. 

Almost surely, his account tracks to a recent report on the Fox News Channel. Meanwhile, trusted agents of our own tribe have been spreading ugly, unfounded claims about this viral event.

Locked behind the towering walls which surround and protect our own blue tribe, we blues will rarely hear a word about such garbage as this.

Can a large modern nation like ours expect to survive with its tribes locked away behind such towering walls? As Springsteen says in the famous song, "Son, take a good look around."

Will the U.S. avoid default?

FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023

What, us citizens worry?: An interesting headline appeared in this morning's New York Times.

In print editions, that headline went like this:

If the U.S. Defaults, Then What?

You can read the attendant report online. Online, the headline says this:

What Would Happen if the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt?

What will happen if the U.S. defaults? "Better late than never," one of the analysts said.

Having said all that, we'll bite! What will happen if the U.S. defaults?

Given the new realities alive in the House; given the fact that the GOP won control of the House in the election our tribe says they lost:

Given those two realities, we'll admit that we've wondered if we actually will avoid default this time. Maybe the current fight will turn out, once again, to have been a showboat charade—but then again, maybe it won't!

With that in mind, we'd have to say that major news entities are taking a slightly "What, us worry?" approach to this latest fandango. 

The Times deserves credit for running today's essay—but it appears all the way back on page B1, in spite of this assessment by Times reporter Joe Rennison:

RENNISON (5/19/23): Some corners of the financial markets have already begun to shudder, but those ripples pale in comparison to the tidal wave that builds as a default approaches. The $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market is the primary source of financing for the government as well as the largest debt market in the world.

The Treasury market is the backbone of the financial system, integral to everything from mortgage rates to the dollar, the most widely used currency in the world. At times, Treasury debt is even treated as the equivalent of cash because of the surety of the government’s creditworthiness.

Shattering confidence in such a deeply embedded market would have effects that are hard to quantify. Most agree, however, that a default would be “catastrophic,” said Calvin Norris, a portfolio manager and interest rate strategist at Aegon Asset Management. “That would be a horror scenario.”

That sounds like a fairly gloomy assessment. Then again, what us worry?

Rennison's lengthy essays jumps inside to page B4. On that same page, the Times offers a companion report. It appears beneath this headline:

When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.

The so-called "X-date" is "hard to predict," Alan Rappeport therein says.

A few days ago, we saw Anderson Cooper interview Lawrence Summers about the likely poisoned fruits of default. Summers made it sound a bit like a day in the park, though the day in the park might be cloudy.

All along, we've wondered if we can really avoid catastrophe this time around. As of today, you have to go to the Washington Post for a headline which captures our state of potential concern:

World watches in disbelief and horror as U.S. nears possible default

The whole world is watching, in disbelief / horror! All in all, we can't say that we know that the whole world is wrong.

On the brighter side, in one part of that world, nothing much has changed. On MSNBC, our own blue tribe just keeps discussing Trump Trump Trump Rudy Trump Jail!

THE WALLS: Historically, walls were built to keep outsiders out!

FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023

Our walls keep insiders separate: Donald Trump's performance at last week's "town hall" created a sense of shock and concern within our blue tribe's tents.

Certain parts of Trump's performance were seen as grossly insensitive. 

Also, his blizzard of shaky factual claims really couldn't be fact-checked in real time. As if that wasn't bad enough, some reactions by the audience struck observers as inappropriate.

In the first two days of this week, we reviewed the lengthy exchange between Candidate Trump and Kaitlan Collins concerning his alleged failure to "finish the border wall."

As we noted, it's hard to create a full fact-check of even a narrowly circumscribed topic like that. In the past two days, we've reviewed a much more complex matter:

We've reviewed the ways blue and red tribunes have reported on Monday's release of the long-awaited Durham Report.

It's no secret that red and blue voters—red and blue fellow citizens—now quite frequently seem to be living in two different worlds. In the immediate aftermath of last week's town hall, Barack Obama offered some thoughts about that vast red/blue divide.

Obama was interviewed by Nate Burleson, co-host of the CBS Mornings program. Along the way, Burleson, a good, decent person, hit Obama with this:

BURLESON: You know, I'm a father of a 19-year-old, 17-year-old, a 12-year-old, and I am an optimistic man. But I find myself falling into the space where I have concern about the country that they will inherit when I'm gone. 

Post-presidency, what about this country keeps you up most at night?

Burleson is an optimistic person. So is Barack Obama.

What worries the former president most? Here's the start of what he said:

OBAMA (continuing from above): The thing that I'm most worried about is the degree to which we now have a divided conversation, in part because we have a divided media, right?

We have "a divided media," Obama said. This has helped produce "a divided conversation"—and Obama said that that's the thing he's most worried about.

Concerning that "divided" media, we'd use a slightly stronger term than the one Obama chose. That said, after a bit of friendly banter, he described what is now a thoroughly ancient world:

OBAMA: When I was coming up, you had three TV stations. and people were getting a similar sense of what is true and what isn't, what was real and what was not.

Today, what I'm most concerned about is the fact that, because of the splintering of the media, we almost occupy different realities. 

If something happens, in the past, everybody could say, "All right, we may disagree on how to solve it, but at least we all agree that, yeah, that's an issue." 

Now, people will say, "Well, that didn't happen," or "I don't believe that."

Obama recalled an antique world—the world of those three TV stations. 

Back then, we all heard the same accounts of the day's news events. Under that arrangement, American citizens tended to agree on the basic facts about those news events. 

There weren't three million places a person could go to hear different accounts of the day's events—accounts which may have completely disagreed with what Walter and David were saying. Those days are long gone at this point.

It's much as Obama said! Today, if a federal jury says that Donald J. Trump committed a sexual assault, many people in a town hall audience may say, "I don't believe that." (For the record, there's no way to prove that some such belief would be wrong.)

Also this:

The New York Times described the Durham Report as a dud. On Fox, Jesse Watters said something vastly different.

It isn't easy to produce an ultimate fact-check of such a complex matter. In Obama's view, "we almost occupy different realities" because of this state of affairs.

Red tribe voters are told one thing; blue voters hear something quite different. We almost occupy different realities! Here's what Obama says he'd like to do about that:

OBAMA (continuing directly): And one of, I think, the goals of the Obama Foundation, and one of the goals of my post-presidency, is: How do we return to that common conversation? How can we have a common set of facts?

We may disagree on gun violence in terms of what the best prescriptions are, but we can’t deny the data that says the United States has levels of gun violence that are five, 10, 15 times more than other countries. 

So if we say that it’s just a mental health problem, well, it's not like there aren’t people with mental health problems in those other countries, what's the difference? Now we can have a debate, but at least we’ve agreed on some, on some facts.

In all honesty, the tea Obama chose to serve was surprisingly weak. In the case of the issue he chose to present, our differences, such as they are, don't seem to spring from some lack of a common set of facts.

No one disagrees with the basic fact that our nation has levels of gun violence which far exceed those found elsewhere. Our differences, such as they are, concern what we as a nation should do about that:

Blue voters may say that we need to outlaw certain types of guns. Red voters often react to high-profile gun violence by going out to buy more guns, presumably for self-protection.

Obama would like to see us return to a world where we all agree on the basic facts. Unfortunately, "disagreement about facts" is a very big business now, with money being made on all sides.

It won't soon be going away.

Obama said we have a "divided media," and that is certainly true. It's also true that our media is increasingly "segregated by viewpoint."

If you sit and watch the "cable news" shows of our own blue tribe, you'll hear the standard viewpoint of the blue tribe, and you'll hear nothing else. 

You'll hear from "our favorite reporters and friends"—and no matter how many favorites are present, they'll all say the exact same things. It isn't that you won't heard a contradictory claim or point of view. In most circumstances, you won't even hear a serious word of nuance.

That's what you'll hear on blue tribe cable. On red tribe cable, you'll hear Jesse Watters. Until very recently, you could even hear Tucker Carlson!

On blue tribe cable, you'll hear Nicolle Wallace and her favorite reporters and friends. That utterly braindead branding statement should serve as a monumental tribal embarrassment, but at the present, highly polarized time, no such world exists.

Red tribe voters hear one set of standard viewpoints and claims. Blue tribe voters hear a different, contradictory set of standard assertions.

In the process, walls are erected between the two tribes, keeping those viewpoints separate. We're many years into this regime of segregation by viewpoint, and it's just as Obama said:

"We almost occupy different realities."

We'd only complain about one word there. The former president might perhaps have dropped one word: "almost."

Very high walls have been erected between our two warring tribes. Other walls are being built around the territories of other population groups.

It's hard to run a large modern nation when this many towering walls block or filter the light. With that in mind, we'll close for today with this fact about the role high walls have played down through the annals of time.

Towering walls have long been built to keep outsiders out. The Great Wall of China was built for that purpose. So were the towering walls around Troy, the high walls sacred Homer described.

The Great Wall of China kept outsiders out. According to Homer, the walls around Troy had kept the marauding Argives out for something like ten years as of the time when The Iliad starts.

The walls around Troy had served to keep the Argives out. Eventually, the Trojan prince Hector, his helmet flashing, decided to reason with fierce Achilles outside the walls of Troy.

By then, the walls had kept the Trojans and the Argives apart for a very long time. Swift Achilles slaughtered Hector, then dragged his body through the dust on the plains outside Troy.

The Trojans and the Argives occupied different realities! Such situations rarely end well.  Homer describes the scene as Queen Hecuba, Hector's mother, watches her son being dragged. Professor Fagles translates:

So [Achilles] triumphed
And now he was bent on outrage, on shaming noble Hector.

[...]

So his whole head was dragged down in the dust.
And now his mother began to tear her hair,
she flung her shining veil to the ground and raised
a high, shattering scream, looking down at her son...

Why was Hecuba "looking down at her son?" She was watching from atop the high walls surrounding Troy—the towering ramparts which had served to keep the outsiders out.

High walls can keep outsiders out. Vast enmity grows in the process.

By way of contrast, the walls our tribes are building today keep insiders apart. They aren't designed to keep outsiders out. They're designed to keep fellow citizens separate.

A modern nation can't expect to function this way. More on this topic next week, with a focus on the unhelpful walls our own blue tribe keeps building.

Homer's immortal closing line: As translated by Professor Lattimore:

"Such was their burial of Hector, breaker of horses."