FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023
What, us citizens worry?: An interesting headline appeared in this morning's New York Times.
In print editions, that headline went like this:
If the U.S. Defaults, Then What?
You can read the attendant report online. Online, the headline says this:
What Would Happen if the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt?
What will happen if the U.S. defaults? "Better late than never," one of the analysts said.
Having said all that, we'll bite! What will happen if the U.S. defaults?
Given the new realities alive in the House; given the fact that the GOP won control of the House in the election our tribe says they lost:
Given those two realities, we'll admit that we've wondered if we actually will avoid default this time. Maybe the current fight will turn out, once again, to have been a showboat charade—but then again, maybe it won't!
With that in mind, we'd have to say that major news entities are taking a slightly "What, us worry?" approach to this latest fandango.
The Times deserves credit for running today's essay—but it appears all the way back on page B1, in spite of this assessment by Times reporter Joe Rennison:
RENNISON (5/19/23): Some corners of the financial markets have already begun to shudder, but those ripples pale in comparison to the tidal wave that builds as a default approaches. The $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market is the primary source of financing for the government as well as the largest debt market in the world.
The Treasury market is the backbone of the financial system, integral to everything from mortgage rates to the dollar, the most widely used currency in the world. At times, Treasury debt is even treated as the equivalent of cash because of the surety of the government’s creditworthiness.
Shattering confidence in such a deeply embedded market would have effects that are hard to quantify. Most agree, however, that a default would be “catastrophic,” said Calvin Norris, a portfolio manager and interest rate strategist at Aegon Asset Management. “That would be a horror scenario.”
That sounds like a fairly gloomy assessment. Then again, what us worry?
Rennison's lengthy essays jumps inside to page B4. On that same page, the Times offers a companion report. It appears beneath this headline:
When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.
The so-called "X-date" is "hard to predict," Alan Rappeport therein says.
A few days ago, we saw Anderson Cooper interview Lawrence Summers about the likely poisoned fruits of default. Summers made it sound a bit like a day in the park, though the day in the park might be cloudy.
All along, we've wondered if we can really avoid catastrophe this time around. As of today, you have to go to the Washington Post for a headline which captures our state of potential concern:
World watches in disbelief and horror as U.S. nears possible default
The whole world is watching, in disbelief / horror! All in all, we can't say that we know that the whole world is wrong.
On the brighter side, in one part of that world, nothing much has changed. On MSNBC, our own blue tribe just keeps discussing Trump Trump Trump Rudy Trump Jail!
Oh, for God’s sake. The debt ceiling crisis has been a major story at MSNBC. What a dumbass.
ReplyDeleteGin maybe OK but it seems to go on Bob’s cornflakes, and that’s not good. Also, I have not seen or heard one of our Tribe say they won the Congress. What they did crow about was avoiding the landslide Republican victory of Bob’s dreams.
DeleteSomerby shows no awareness that Biden has options other than capitulating to right wingers to avoid the “debt ceiling”.
ReplyDeleteSomerby’s right wing agenda aside, it’s weird how somehow as ill-informed as Somerby is, has a blog on the American discourse.
These options have been repeatedly discussed in “blue” media.
DeleteBob also fails to mention that Dems never flinched raising the debt ceiling for Trump, even after his corporate and very wealthy folks tax cuts exploded the deficit by nearly $8 trillion. Biden has decreased the debt a bit even with pandemic spending. Also never discusses that without the Bush and Trump tax cuts, debt as a percentage of the economy would be declining permanently.
DeleteThe second amendment is evil.
ReplyDeleteThe fourteenth amendment is good.
ReplyDeleteExcept for it’s expansion in relation to corporations, that is evil.
DeleteDefund the Supreme Court.
DeleteIt allows Biden to avoid the debt ceiling crisis.
DeleteTrump is relevant to the debt ceiling fiasco because he is telling house republicans to default, despite raising the debt ceiling during his term, and they are taking their marching orders from the “deranged” man.
ReplyDeleteOur political systems are falling apart at the seams.
ReplyDeleteIt used to be that kids ran around in their jeans so much they’d get rips and tears and you kept them because it was lame to waste money on new jeans when you had ones that worked fine. Back when vanity was a meaningful pejorative.
DeleteThen in the 80s, society shifted - Reagan brought us to live a knife’s edge existence, so boomers became obsessed with commodifying everything - and instead of jeans tattering naturally from having fun, you could now buy jeans pre-ripped. Instead of going out and engaging with nature and the world, you could buy the aesthetic of that, pose instead of living, while ogling others.
This is the world right wingers and Republicans have wrought, the one Somerby thinks we should just roll over and take, it’s nonsense.
Wake up, people.
Democrats should have won the House. Now, it’s their fault that the economy is about to shut down by defaulting on the debt.
ReplyDelete“The 2020 election was rigged.”
ReplyDelete“No, it was not.”
Why must both sides build walls like this?
We live in a barred spiral galaxy.
ReplyDeleteThe increase of refugees at our border is a direct consequence of Americans telling BLM that "All Lives Matter".
ReplyDeleteTrump is Putin's bitch.
ReplyDelete2nd amendment - well regulated militia - but forget those two words and give assault rifles to every kid over 10 - why deny them their rights - except if they are trans.
ReplyDelete