THE UNDISCUSSED: Miracle spotted in Mississippi!

TUESDAY, MAY 23, 2023

A claim that scores have soared: "I want to talk really quickly," Morning Joe's chief host said.

He wanted to "talk really quickly" about a topic which is rarely discussed by our blue tribe's tribunes and journalists. He wanted to discuss a miracle which had occurred in Mississippi—a miracle which had occurred in that state's public schools.

The discussion began at 6:46 A.M.; it was over by 6:47. As we showed you yesterday, this is the way it began:

SCARBOROUGH (5/18/23): I want to talk really quickly, before we go to break, about reading in Mississippi and Alabama. 

I mean, you know, Mississippi—two states I love, two states I've lived in. Two states when I hear we're 49th in this, 50th in that, I roll my eyes.

Did you read about the "Mississippi miracle" yesterday? That Mississippi's reading scores have shot way up?

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yeah.

OFF-CAMERA GUEST: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: The Alabama miracle? It's so heartening, and maybe offers a road map for other areas in states that may be doing better but where there are pockets of illiteracy, to do better.

Reading scores in public schools almost never get discussed at all. On this rare occasion, Morning Joe devoted something like ninety seconds to the claim that a miracle had occurred in the Mississippi schools.

As we noted yesterday, the miracle had been reported in a lengthy AP report. The headline had said this:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

For the record, the AP report, by Sharon Lurye, had described no Alabama miracle, heartening or otherwise. Scarborough was already embellishing a report he had most likely skimmed, if that.

That said, the headline on the AP report really did seem to be claiming a "miracle" in Mississippi. It also said that public school reading scores have "soared" in (plural) Deep South states.

Claims of "miracles" in public schools have a long, unimpressive track record. That said, this AP report was so impressive that it generated ninety seconds of discussion on a major cable news program.

Even if for those few moments, the Morning Joe gang had set aside their more typical speculations about arcane legal issues involving Donald J. Trump. For today, let's start to review what was actually said in the lengthy AP report.

Has a "miracle" really occurred in Mississippi's schools? Inevitably, a bit of hyperbole was likely involved in that (heartening) claim. Headline included, the report began as shown:

‘Mississippi miracle’: Kids’ reading scores have soared in Deep South states

It's a cliché that Kymyona Burk heard a little too often: “Thank God for Mississippi.”

As the state’s literacy director, she knew politicians in other states would say it when their reading test scores were down—because at least they weren’t ranked as low as Mississippi. Or Louisiana. Or Alabama.

Lately, the way people talk about those states has started to change. Instead of looking down on the Gulf South, they’re seeing it as a model.

Mississippi went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for reading to 21st in 2022. Louisiana and Alabama, meanwhile, were among only three states to see modest gains in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, which saw massive learning setbacks in most other states.

According to the AP report, people weren't laughing at three Deep South states any more.

With respect to Mississippi, it had been "the second-worst state for reading" as recently as 2013. In 2022, it had registered as 21st best—as the 21st best out of 50 states in all.

Depending on what we're talking about, that would be a substantial improvement. It might not qualify as a miracle in everyone's book. 

Meanwhile, two Gulf Coast neighbors—Alabama and Louisiana—had shown "modest gains" in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, during a time when many other states had seen substantial setbacks.

On that basis, Lurye reported this:

LURYE (continuing directly): The turnaround in these three states has grabbed the attention of educators nationally, showing rapid progress is possible anywhere, even in areas that have struggled for decades with poverty and dismal literacy rates. The states have passed laws adopting similar reforms that emphasize phonics and early screenings for struggling kids. 

It's true that educators have been paying attention to scores gains in these three Deep South states. That said, it isn't clear that a miracle has occurred in Mississippi, or that reading scores have "soared" elsewhere in the region.

For now, a bit of precision:

Lurye was referring to average statewide scores in Grade 4 reading from last year's administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Naep). The Naep is a federal program which has long been regarded as the gold standard of this nation's educational testing.

Last year, the Naep was administered for the first time since 2019—for the first time since the Covid pandemic struck, disrupting much public schooling. 

In the face of attendant disruptions in public schooling, Naep scores in reading and math had dropped on a nationwide basis over that three-year period. In Grade 4 reading, average scores had slightly improved in Alabama and Louisiana.

(The Naep tests students in reading and math at three grade levels—4, 8 and 12.)

In Mississippi, the average Grade 4 reading score did, in fact, slightly drop from 2019 to 2022. But the national average dropped even more, creating a situation where Mississippi's fourth-grade kids were actually outscoring their nationwide counterparts, if only by a slight amount.

Assuming everything is as it seems, this would be an impressive accomplishment for Mississippi's public schools. But had a miracle really occurred there, and had scores really "soared" in the other two states?

A hint of hyperbole may be involved in such claims. Here are the average scores in question:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
U.S. public schools:  216.11
Alabama:  213.30
Louisiana:  212.34
Mississippi:  217.16

According to a very rough but widely employed rule of thumb, ten points on the Naep scale is roughly equivalent to one academic year. 

Judged by that very rough rule of thumb, Mississippi had inched past the national average in Grade 4 reading. Alabama and Louisiana lagged a third to a half of a year behind the national average—and now, let's consider this:

Average scores, Grade 4 reading
Naep, 2022:
U.S. public schools: 216.11
Alabama: 213.30
Louisiana: 212.34
Mississippi: 217.16 

Florida: 224.74
Massachusetts: 226.80

At the risk of breaking hearts, we show you where the controversial state known as Florida stood on the Grade 4 reading test. Also Massachusetts, a traditionally high-performing state.

A whole lot remains to be said once we've looked at that first set of average scores. In a bit of a spoiler alert, Mississippi's performance looks even better when we look at the average scores for the state's low-income kids, and also for its black kids.

Having said that, we'll add this:

There exists a long, unhelpful history involving embellished claims of educational miracles and soaring test scores. 

Assuming everything is as it seems, Mississippi's score gains are indeed impressive. But it might be too soon to declare the latest miracle, or to say that the scores from the other two Gulf Coast states have "soared."

Also, we've included an awkward phrase on two occasions. Can we assume that everything is as it seems? We'll offer more on that awkward question as the week proceeds.

As you can see if you click this link, Scarborough gave this heartening topic ninety seconds, then returned to some enjoyable clowning. It's much as we have always told you:

No one cares about those Gulf Coast kids, and no one ever will.

Tomorrow: "Disaggregating" those scores