FRIDAY, MAY 15, 2026
But it won't be reduced like that: What will happen to Black membership in the House in the wake of Louisiana v. Callais?
Before we offer a current estimate, let's recall where membership stood at the start of the current Congress. This report, from Spectrum News, appeared in January 2025:
A record 67 Black lawmakers are serving in the 119th Congress—a four-fold increase since 1975.
The number represents a historic milestone since the first Black member of Congress, Sen. Hiram Revels of Mississippi, was elected in 1869. Black representation in Congress rose during Reconstruction, fell during the Jim Crow era, then grew through the 20th century due in part to the civil rights movement and the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
The 67 total Black members of Congress in 2025 include 62 Democrats and five Republicans.
The five Republicans serving on Capitol Hill—four in the House and one in the Senate—match the number in the last session of Congress and also represent the most since Reconstruction.
Let's be clear on the overall numbers. Five of those 67 members were (and still are) members of the Senate. As the current Congress started, there were 62 Black members of the House—58 Democrats, but also four Republicans.
How will those numbers be affected by the scramble to eliminate majority Black congressional districts in the wake of the Callais decision? In this recent news report, NBC News reported a current estimate:
Democrats warn a third of the Congressional Black Caucus could be wiped out by redistricting wars
The Congressional Black Caucus, a power center in the Democratic Party for decades, saw its membership rise this Congress to an all-time high of 58 House members.
Now, thanks to a Supreme Court redistricting ruling that’s expected to dramatically diminish Black representation on Capitol Hill, the CBC is fighting a five-alarm fire that could devastate its membership.
CBC Chair Yvette Clarke, D-N.Y., said as many as 19 of the caucus’ members could be affected by the redistricting wars in a worst-case scenario, though she noted it’s still fluid given that states are still drawing new maps in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.
“It’s devastating. People have sacrificed so much to make this a more perfect union. And here we are, in 2026, seeing this massive regression in all the gains that have been made. It’s painful,” Clarke told NBC News on Tuesday.
So goes that early estimate. "As many as 19 Democratic members could be affected," Rep. Clarke said.
For the record, several of the original Democratic 58 have died or have resigned. Three more have announced that they'll be retiring at the end of their current terms.
(Two of the Republican members—Reps. Donalds and James—are the likely GOP nominees in gubernatorial races in Florida and Michigan. Throw in a retirement and an unsuccessful Senate run in Texas and none of the four Republican members will be back next year.)
Almost surely, there will be fewer Black members in the House next year. As is almost always the rule, overstatements have followed.
“It’s Jim Crow 2.0,” Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) is quoted saying in the NBC News report. Thompson is quoted saying that the Callais decision “potentially takes us back 60 years.”
Derrick Johnson, president of the NAACP, is also quoted calling the situation "a new form of Jim Crow."
For the record, Rep. Thompson's calculation is almost surely wrong. Sixty years ago, there were only six Black members in the House!
Whatever you think of the Callais ruling, it won't be taking those numbers back to where they stood in 1965, or to anything close to that number. But that's the way the discourse routinely goes within our rapidly failing nation, even among us Blues.
The number won't be that small, but the number will almost surely be smaller. As to how we got from there to here—as to how we got from six Black House members up to 62—we'll refer you to Carl Hulse's recent retrospective piece in the New York Times.
How did we ever get this far? Also, what explains the way those numbers grew in the aftermath of the Voting Rights Act?
As we noted yesterday, Jamelle Bouie laid out the numbers, and the timeline recording their growth, in this recent New York Times column:
John Roberts Believes in an America That Doesn’t Exist
[...]
[I]t took a major amendment to the Voting Rights Act and a Supreme Court decision to give Black Americans the opportunity to win more than token representation in Congress. In 1982, Congress reauthorized and amended the V.R.A. to combat disparate impact in voting and electoral outcomes. Four years later, in 1986, a unanimous Supreme Court declared that the Voting Rights Act forbade voting schemes that impaired the ability of “cohesive” groups of language or minority groups to “participate equally in the political process and to elect candidates of their choice.” Following this decision, states across the country—especially in the South—used the 1990 census and redistricting to create majority-minority state legislative and congressional districts where Black voters could elevate Black lawmakers and officials to federal office.
At the 10th anniversary of the [Voting Rights Act] in 1975, there were 17 Black members of Congress, up from six in 1965. All but one of them served in the House of Representatives. At the 20th anniversary in 1985, there were still only 20 Black Americans in the House (and none in the Senate). By 1995, however, there were 43 Black Americans serving as voting members of Congress, including one senator, Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois. This, even after the Democratic Party suffered its largest congressional defeat of the postwar era.
After that major amendment to the VRA, the numbers substantially grew. More specifically, majority- minority House districts were formed in the redistricting which followed the 1990 census.
This raises a bit of a question:
Who was responsible for the creation of those new districts? Were Democratic legislatures creating those districts Were Republicans joining in?
Was this some sort of different age? Was this the dawning of an age in which the two parties chose to link hands to let a thousand flowers bloom?
In this recent report in the New York Times, Carl Hulse explores that general question—and as was understood at the time, it wasn't quite as simple as that! In his recent retrospective, Hulse describes the political trade-offs which were involved as this remarkable change occurred.
It's hard to imagine the current era without that impressive growth in Black congressional membership—a change which made the House of Representatives "look [much] more like America."
It's hard to imagine the current era without that significant change. We ourselves have always lived in a (naturally occurring) majority minority district—a district in which we've been represented by Kweisi Mfume and the late Elijah Cummings, with an earlier tenure by Rep. Parren J. Mitchell added in.
(They were "princes and princesses." That's what the late Rep. Mitchell would always tell the children at the Baltimore City elementary school where we were teaching fifth graders back at the start of the era. Unfailingly, he would deliver those words of affirmation, during a challenging time.)
As these things go, we've been lucky in the quality of the people we've been able to vote for. That said, Hulse describes the political complexities involved in the creation of those majority minority districts in places where "racial gerrymandering" was required to create such congressional maps.
He also describes the long, slow, steady political change in which the Republican Party took political control of the "Solid South" and seems to have acquired substantial control over the electoral map.
There were tradeoffs involved in the gerrymandering which produced the larger numbers we have described. Based on an unusual comment Rep. Clyburn recently made, such tradeoffs may even live on today!
We want to walk you through the political history recalled in Hulse's report. We also want to tell you what we saw and heard on Velshi last weekend—what we saw and heard when the Harvard professor and the Princeton professor spoke with the (highly capable) rising star Harvard grad.
All three of those people are good, decent people. Rep. Thompson is a good, decent person as well.
That said, we aren't going back to 1965, and this isn't Jim Crow all over again. The numbers will be down next year. But they won't be down like that
We aren't going back to 1965, and this isn't Jim Crow again! We Blues! Do we know how we look to other people when we refuse to stop making such claims?
Tomorrow: We'll have to move fast to cram it all in.
On Monday morning, we expect to move on to the annals of headlong decline.