Presidential polling is worthless right now!

MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2023

Here are the latest results: At least in theory, we're glad to see that Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News. 

The problem involved what he might do wherever he ends up. We'd be happier if there had been some serious effort, within the mainstream press or on blue tribe cable, to report on Carlson's work while he was still on the air. 

We'll have more on this at some future date. Meanwhile, back to our original planned report:

Presidential polling is basically worthless this early in the campaign.

That doesn't mean that such polling isn't done! We offer the results from the new poll by NBC News to illustrate an important fact:

President Biden could actually lose next year!

Yes, that's right—he could lose! We applaud Michelle Goldberg for saying so right at the start of her latest column for the New York Times:

GOLDBERG (4/21/23): Watching the nascent Republican primary race, I have a sickening sense of déjà vu. As much as I abhor Donald Trump’s opponents, I’m desperate for one of them to prevail. Trump might be easier for Joe Biden to beat, but anyone who gets the Republican nomination has a chance of being elected, and the possibility of another Trump term is intolerable. So it’s harrowing to see Trump abetted, again, by the cowardice of his opponents.

According to Goldberg, Trump might be easier to beat, but even he could win. Goldberg's column moves on from there, but that's a very important point, right at the start of her piece.

That said, the sheer absurdity of our failing politics is visible in the new NBC poll. How broken is our American politics?

Let us count the ways! For starters, consider this:

Sixty percent of respondents said they don't want Trump to run for president next year.

Amazingly, that gives Trump a leg up on Biden. According to the NBC poll, seventy percent of respondents don't want him to run!

Most likely, those numbers merely mean that fewer Republicans were willing to throw their guy under the bus. That doesn't tell us how people will actually vote if Biden and Trump end up on the ballot as the two nominees.

The good news for Democrats starts with this—only 34 percent of respondents said they have a positive feeling about Trump!

Biden blows Trump away on that score. A full 38 percent of respondents said they have a positive feeling about him!

Is it likely that Trump will get nominated? At this point, it's hard to tell.

As of now, Republican respondents said they prefer Trump to DeSantis by a margin of 48-31 percent. That's a meaningless difference at this early point. Of course, if Trump can get himself indicted three or four more times, he'll likely be hard to stop!

Finally, here's the silliest finding in this whole poll, as reported by NBC's Mark Murray:

41% say they’d vote for Biden in general election

The NBC News survey finds a combined 41% of registered voters saying they’d definitely or probably vote for Biden in the general election, versus 47% who say they’d vote for the eventual Republican nominee.

It's basically silly to run a poll this far out. If you want to make it totally silly, you do what NBC did in this question:

You compare a hypothetical GOP nominee to an actual named Democrat! Polling gets no dumber than that.

There will be a lot of this sort of thing from this point on. Journalism is a round-the-clock business now, and discussing numbers like these can kill a great deal of time and burn away column inches.

That said, make no mistake—President Biden very much could end up losing next year. 

DeSantis could end up cleaning his clock. As Goldberg quite correctly warned, even Donald J. Trump could win!


25 comments:

  1. "That said, make no mistake—President Biden very much could end up losing next year. "

    This, not polling, is the main point of Somerby's essay. But anything is possible, Biden could also win.

    Can Somerby be a bigger idiot than when he writes this sort of essay?

    Why would a Democrat say they don't want Biden to run? Because there is still time for someone else to step up. Biden hasn't announced his campaign yet. People will hold out for a better candidate as long as the race isn't firm yet. Because there is no consensus candidate with the strength of Biden, no one is going to come forward and Biden will, barring unforeseen circumstances, be our nominee. And Democrats will close ranks around him, as they did in 2020.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Somerby's conscience is clear -- he didn't contribute one single word to Carlson's downfall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I and others have pointed out, MSNBC HAS reported on Carlson’s mischief, fairly often.

      Delete
  3. Biden is too old.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He is doing a fine job. If he were too old, he wouldn't be.

      Delete
    2. Too old to be an appealing and inspirational candidate.

      Delete
    3. His accomplishments are appealing and inspirational.

      Delete
    4. No, they are not. I get that you are partisan and think they are though.

      Delete
    5. 6:32,
      Be honest. Do you ever seeing yourself forgiving Biden for the lowest unemployment rate in more than half a century?

      Delete
    6. Don't understand the question. But I know you're very proud of Biden's unemployment numbers.

      Delete
  4. Well…. Sigh…. Again… why would ANYONE think it IS NOT possible for President Biden to lose, even to Trump, next year? We have learned all we need to know about the levels of hatred of County Republicans are willing to bring to the he polls.
    Yes, it IS silly to fixate on polls this far out, as any critic of our political media would be emphasizing. No one knows where we will be in November of next year. So why is Somerby doing it?

    ReplyDelete
  5. The second amendment is evil.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Guess who didn’t get fired today?

    Maddow, tonight, 9pm Eastern.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Republicans should support statehood for DC and PR.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Most polls show Trump slightly beating Biden in 2024. But I'm sure a lot of voters, especially young voters, will come around ... because of all of Biden's inspiring accomplishments.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The corp[orate money will flood the Democrats when McCarthy and the Republicans default on the debt.

      Delete
    2. Like student loan forgiveness, which Republicans are blocking.

      Delete
    3. Student loan forgiveness was never seriously considered. Democrats just trotted it out conveniently for the midterms to draw in the younger vote. That's it. The Democrats never seriously considered it passing. Whole thing was a ruse to get votes.

      Delete
    4. Then why didn't the regressive republican dickheads just let it go instead of dishonestly claiming standing to bring it all the way to the supreme court, trollboy?

      Delete
  9. Trump will be the Republican candidate.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Biden has announced.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Democrats and the media shouldn't have severed ties with working class.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You shouldn't have severed ties with your brain.

      Delete