FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2024
Great American Novels gone wild: When it comes to the nationwide popular vote, how large will Candidate Trump's victory margin be?
At present, we can't say. As of this morning, we still have counting of votes—but this is where the numbers currently stand:
Nationwide popular vote (to date), 2024
Candidate Trump: 73,407,735 (50.7%)
Candidate Harris: 69,074,145 votes (47.7%)
Turnout: At present, unknown
At present, the candidate's victory margin is three points.
As we noted yesterday, Ezra Klein has estimated that the margin may end up at 1.5 points. We'll go ahead and take a guess, placing it at two points.
Among the votes which have been counted, the winning candidate received slightly more than half the total vote—slightly more than half the votes from the people who chose to vote.
He received none of the votes from the people who didn't vote. For the record, this is roughly the way the nationwide vote ended four years ago:
Nationwide popular vote, 2020
Candidate Biden: 81,283,501 (51.3%)
Candidate Trump: 74,223,975 (46.8%)
Turnout: 66.6%
As far as we know, California has finished counting its votes from that election. For the record, that turnout number suggests that something approaching 80 million people who were eligible to vote didn't turn out to vote that year.
They didn't vote for Candidate Biden or for Candidate Trump. If you score them as voting for Candidate Neither, it can almost seem that Candidate Neither ran quite well that year!
These are some of the basic numbers from the last two White House elections. As a general matter, a lot of Americans turn out to vote, but it's also true that tens of millions of Americans don't.
Our elections involve large numbers of Americans! That said, nothing can match the volume of Great American Novels which swiftly appear in the wake of our presidential campaigns. That's especially true in a year like this, when the campaign was especially fraught and its outcome has struck many people as shocking.
According to some of our favorite experts, there is no cure for what happens when we start writing our novels. For one example of such a novel, we'll offer comments by a pair of readers at a Blue American blog.
A bit sardonically, the author of the blog post in question had offered a lengthy list of reasons—a list of reasons which have already been offered as explanations for the one candidate's loss.
As best we can tell, the blogger was being a bit sardonic. That said, why did Candidate Harris fall short? The commenters offered this:
COMMENTER (11/7/24): Occam's razor: America wanted DJT. That's who we are as a people. It's depressing, but it's the simplest hypothesis that fits all the facts.
This one's on us, folks.
COMMENTER IN RESPONSE: Apparently, he got more than 50% of the vote. Every single day he showed us exactly who he is. No punches pulled. Thus, you are right. A bitter pill to swallow.
It's "a bitter pill to swallow." Is it one we're inclined to gulp?
"America" wanted Trump, the first commenter said. It's "who we are as a people."
Is it true that "America" wanted Trump? It's certainly true that many Americans went out and voted for Candidate Trump as opposed to Candidate Harris.
(Some of them may have wanted something better. But that's who they voted for.)
We voted for Candidate Harris ourselves. So did almost half the people who turned out to vote.
That first commenter was writing a novel—a dystopian novel at that. He or she produced the screenplay for a political horror film. A third commenter offered this in response to the original comment:
COMMENTER IN RESPONSE: Among those people who did vote, "this is who we are as a people" by an eventual margin of maybe two percent.
Trump beat Harris by maybe two points. Is that "who we are as a people?"
In all honesty, the formulation makes little sense—leads us away from clarity in the direction of horror. But according to experts, this is very much the way we humans, as a species, are wired to respond to important events of this type.
It isn't anyone's fault, these experts say. On balance, it's just the way we're built!
On balance, we humans aren't exactly "the rational animal." To a greater extent, we're the animal which is inclined to construct enormously simplified novels to explain major events.
As a species, we humans are inclined to construct simple stories about major events which take place in the world. On this very Friday morning, those novels are appearing all over the web site of the New York Times.
These novels aren't coming from commenters jotting quick reactions at a blog. They're coming from journalistic mental giants who often went to the finest schools!
The author of one of these novels is nine years out of college (St. John's, class of 2015). His novel appears on the front page of this morning's print editions—but does this really make sense?
CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK
How Trump Connected With So Many Americans
The forces that propelled President-elect Donald J. Trump to victory will be endlessly analyzed. Many Americans woke up on Wednesday morning shocked that he could win again. But there is no doubt about one thing: Mr. Trump was a ferociously effective campaigner.
To watch him up close on this third run for president was to see him blend comedy, fury, optimism, darkness and cynicism like never before. He was an expert communicator, able to transmute legal and mortal peril to build upon his self mythology. He won new supporters and kept old ones in thrall.
At dozens of events, I watched as he connected with all sorts of people in all sorts of places...
That's the way the novel started. Our question:
Does this sudden new assessment—the candidate was "an expert communicator," we're suddenly being told—actually make good sense?
Nationwide, the candidate won by two points against a relatively little-known candidate who was thrown into the race very late in the game. Does a person have to be "an expert communicator" to achieve a two-point win in that unusual circumstance?
A second novel appears on the front page of today's print editions. That novel has a different theme—but does this novel make sense?
NEWS ANALYSIS
For Black Women, ‘America Has Revealed to Us Her True Self’
From the moment Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, Black women could see the mountaintop.
Across the country, they led an outpouring of Democratic elation when the vice president took over the top of the presidential ticket. But underneath their hope and determination was a persistent worry: Was America ready, they asked, to elect a Black woman?
The painful answer arrived this week.
It affirmed the worst of what many Black women believed about their country: that it would rather choose a man who was convicted of 34 felonies, has spewed lies and falsehoods, disparaged women and people of color, and pledged to use the powers of the federal government to punish his political opponents than send a woman of color to the White House.
[...]
“This isn’t a loss for Black women, it’s a loss for the country,” said Waikinya Clanton, the founder of the organizing group Black Women for Kamala. “America has revealed to us her true self,” she added, “and we have to decide what we do with her from here.”
As with the comment to the blog post, so too here. According to this presentation, "America" has revealed "her true self," and what she's revealed isn't good.
This novel is pleasingly simplified. That said, to what extent foes this "news analysis" hold up?
Needless to say, it's true! By a margin which may end up at less than two points, Americans who turned out to vote favored the one candidate over the other. But as to why those (tens of millions of) people made that particular choice, this novel seems to have settled on One Possible Reason Only.
Meanwhile, our favorite novel of the many appears in today's Letters section. According to experts, this novel turns on a formulation which is very common among us humans:
To the Editor:
If the results of this election teach us anything, it’s that American voters of all demographics consistently vote against their own interests. Tens of millions of women just voted for the candidate who is likely to remove their fundamental rights. Arab Americans favored the candidate who used executive orders to bar Muslims and Middle Eastern refugees from entering the country. Latino men voted for the candidate who tried to build a literal wall to keep people just like them out.
Do these voters not think that the pendulum of misogyny, racism and bigotry so readily wielded by their candidate of choice and his followers won’t soon come swinging for them?
There are many reasons for this electoral outcome, but one thing is certain: Americans no longer vote based on policies or principles. Instead, they vote for the person who promises them what they want to hear—even when he consistently, and remarkably, does the exact opposite.
G— D— / Detroit
According to this particular novel, we now seem to have learned that "American voters of all demographics consistently vote against their own interests."
More precisely, we seem to have learned that "American voters of all demographics consistently vote against their own interests" as those interests are understood by people like the letter writer.
Meanwhile, one thing is certain, this Michigan novelist says:
"Americans"—presumably, every American but him—"no longer vote based on policies or principles." If someone based his vote on years of unexplained chaos at the southern border, that American wasn't basing his vote on policy. He simply voted for the candidate who said what he wanted to hear!
For the record, this last novel has been quite common here in Blue America. Experts say that we humans are fundamentally wired to see the world in such ways.
There's no cure for any of this, these experts all insist. But they also stress this important point:
When we humans create such novels, that doesn't mean we're bad people. It simply means that we're people people, these experts hotly insist.
Next week, we expect to review some sober assessments of why the Blue candidate lost—why she lost by a margin which may end up at something less than two points. With that, we reach a final point:
Regarding these novels, those experts say this:
Their production is very much an old normal. There's nothing new about this impulse. It dates back trillions of years!
ReplyDeleteAmericans don't like their country being down in the crapper. They want to make America great again.
What's so complicated here? And why would anyone who is not completely insane consider it "depressing"?
Thanks, JD. Shouldn't you be figuring out what your next lie will be?
DeleteSome of us disagree that the country is down the crapper. Honestly, a lot of Americans live above their means, buy cars and phones they can't afford, order uber eats and pay 35 for a hamburger, then complain that the economy is leaving them behind. Of the 60% of the country that live paycheck to paycheck, I would love to know how many of those wounds are self-inflicted.
DeleteDon't argue with assholes like 9:36 am. They are just here to troll. It belongs to the "Tribe that Rubs Shit in their Hair". It can't understand why it is so repugnant around normal people.
DeleteAgree with 11:00am, they will go away if we ignore them.
DeleteExcept they don’t go away.
Delete9:36,
DeleteThese aren't the same people who give me shit for not standing and respecting the flag of a country that is in the crapper, during the playing of the National Anthem, by any chance, are they?
12:44 - then ignore them.
Deletethe other novel i see out there is that this was a "historic" win and a "clear mandate"...and that trump made an unprecedented comeback. First, he never went anywhere and all the polls always showed him in the game. Second, the eventual results were not unlike a lot of other recent elections over the past 30-40 years, electoral or popular vote. Third, a 2-3 point win does not make a mandate...
ReplyDeleteWinning the Presidency, the Senate, the House, and the Supreme Court make up a mandate. It's Catch-22: They can do whatever you can't stop them from doing.
DeletePp, I’m hoping they’ll be opening some file cabinets.
DeleteResistance is not futile.
DeletePP,
DeleteYou would have been a hoot during WWII.
Calling a hypothesized explanation a "novel" demeans the process of forming hypotheses (which arise inductively from observed facts, not imagination) which is integral to science. The next step is to test those ideas and find out which work and which don't, not to mock them as Somerby does today.
ReplyDeleteSomerby is such an asshole.
I agree with somerby, media come up with certain phrases and then they all just start parroting the same phrases over and over again without ever checking their hypotheses.
Delete1o:24,
DeleteSomerby may be an asshole but you don't know how to read.
Somerby's whole point is that the hypothesized explanations are totally unscientific, hence can be thought of as 'novels.'
And he is wrong about that. The problem is not hypothesizing explanations but testing them. Somerby shows no indication of understanding what testing a hypothsis means. So he dismisses explanation as fantasy. Some explanations will have empirical support and others will not. That is the important examination. If Somerby doesn't know how to test an idea, that is on him, but calling this process fantasy is wrong and dismissive of the expertise of those whose job it is to study and eventually understand what happened. This is more of Somerby's anti-intellectualism, and I am sick of it.
DeleteAnd how would one go about testing the hypothesis Somerby highlighted today, "America wanted DJT. That's who we are as a people."
DeleteIt obviously does not resemble a hypothesis in any way, shape or form and yet presents itself as if it was factual. Please describe the test protocols you would employ.
I agree, it is not a testable hypothesis, it's ultimately an opinion...
DeleteWell, here is one way, as Digby describes:
Delete" Three political scientists who studied the connection between sexism, emotions, and support for Trump found that the more hostile voters were toward women, the more likely they were to support Trump." [Libby Nelson, Vox]
https://digbysblog.net/2024/11/08/the-fall-guys/
@11:27, it is a tautology to say that America wanted DJT, after the majority voted for him. America did not vote 100% for him, so we must say that some of America wanted DJT. Then you have to find out who and why. American people are not monolithic. There are already studies of political demographics and motives for voting. There is a literature on it, using studies that are scientific, hence the discipline of "political science." The people who work on campaigns typically come from such programs of study. So do many of the people who go on to law school and then become politicians. Lauren Boebert excluded, since she only got her GED (high school graduation certificate) after she decided to run for the House.
People lie to pollsters. In this case, it seems likely that Democrats lied about voting for Harris, perhaps because they know they are expected to support civil rights and opportunities for women, then they stayed home. But that is only one part of the explanation because no single explanation has the ability to explain the entire shortfall. We may find that the constant attacks on Harris for being a "ho" emphasized racial stereotypes while also demeaning women for have an autonomous sex life, which activates misogyny, but using words like "pimp" in talking about Harris is a twofer, racist and sexist. That came from the right, but was there enough pushback on such attacks from the left? Ignoring them doesn't help, and that is Digby's point -- that the sexism and racism is still being ignored when analyzing the aftermath, because we don't want to think of Democrats in those terms perhaps, or maybe we fear it will be too much more scolding and those cat ladies are hated -- JD Vance said so.
Here is an example of why not talking about sexism and racism doesn't make it go away. We need to talk about it more, not less, but look at the comments to yesterday's essay by Somerby. The haters feel emboldened and are in-your-face antagonistic toward women and minorities because they won. Not only did DJT win, but hate won.
More evidence? The numbers for hate crimes increased dramatically under Trump after his first victory. People who are minorities know this from first-hand experience, but there are records showing it. They decreased under Biden. Now they are going to increase again. That is a kind of experiment that shows causality, because the cause if absent, it is applied, removed, then applied again, with the predicted fluctuation in hate crimes and overt bigotry. The question isn't whether DJT is who America is, but what we are going to do about his encouragement of hate in our society.
How is it that not one of you have ascertained that Somerby thinks that the media is now novelizing Trump and his victory?
DeleteWhat insight does anyone gain from calling everything a novel? None. It is just nihilism.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:26pm, thank you for today’s shiny object distraction from Bob’s point. Maybe next time he’ll throw in some Dylan lyrics for you to denounce.
DeleteMy nephew inadvertently reminded me that Trump supporters are more open-minded than Trump opponents. He told me that he wouldn't hold my support of Trump against me. He said family is more important.
ReplyDeleteNow the idea of me holding his political position against him had never even occurred to me. Based on what I read, some friendships broke up over Trump. When that happened it generally was the Trump opponent rejecting the Trump supporter. That's because MAGAs are more accepting of different views than anti-MAGAs.
Shay Moss and Ruby Freeman totally agree with you.
Deletewhat evidence do you have that Trump supporters are more accepting of different views. Because that is not my experience.
DeleteDickhead in Cal, go fuck yourself, you fascist creep.
Delete@10:46 - As I said, my opinion is based mostly on what I read. I am therefore particularly interested in your actual experiences. Could you possibly provide more details on these experiences?
DeleteAnonymouse 10:45am, uh…. that’s a hard one… What…oh what…. Hey! We can start with an organized political operation being waged against a liberal blogger because he doesn’t go by a rigorously mandated script.
DeleteThe GOP purged from its ranks anyone who criticized Trump and didn’t later kiss his ring. They characterize liberals, all Democrats, as degenerate and evil. Yeah, you’re a tolerant lot.
DeleteWhere do you read that Trump supporters are more accepting of other opinions? Or that Trump supporters are unfriended at a greater rate?
DeleteOh look the man pretending to be a woman responding to the man pretending…pfff you name it: that he is an actuary, related to a writer, related or connected to various people, etc., our own personal Zelig.
DeleteTwo lonely people desperate for attention.
Two clowns, of the John Wayne Gacy type.
Two utter dumb fucking morons.
Anonymouse 11:59am, the political leadership is different from David’s nephew or a non govt org. . I doubt a pol would have stayed in leadership if they had suggested that Biden’s replacement be someone other than Comma La.
Deleteto dave in cal, my experience has generally been that Trump supporters are angry. Anytime I have offered a differing opinion, I get shouted down, oftentimes with talking points that have nothing to do with the original topic. Vulgar language directed at Kamala Harris and others. And generally an unwillingness to admit that their side is not correct 100% of the time, which is a statistical impossibility. I have oftentimes offered that Trump or republicans may be right about this issue or that issue, but there is never a reciprocal admission that someone else's opinion might be valid and should at least be heard and understood. But this is only my experience, and not anything scientific. And I am under no illusion that the same thing does not exist on the left. Just your suggestion that Trump supporters are more understanding is not what I have seen, and I would LOVE to see evidence of how you came to this conclusion. Personally I think both sides should stop talking past each other, but that won't happen.
DeleteThat’s my experience too.
DeleteAnonymices 11:39am and 12:42pm, you’re on a blog where there’s an organized effort to personally slander a blogger for not absolutely despising his political contrarians.
DeleteThat’s ridiculous nonsense spewed by a troll.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:25pm, anonymices have said that Bob is on Putin’s payroll a million times. Why? Because he doesn’t sing every stanza of your song. THEN you talk about Republicans being angry, intransigent, and unwilling to listen to others.
DeleteDavid in Cal is such an asshole, i can only hope that he isn't lying about being a Jew. Because the look on his face. when they push him into a cattle car, will be make all the time i waste reading his bullshit totally worth it.
DeletePerhaps your nephew and his kind agree that Trump watching a mob he trained on congress assault and injure over 140 capital police for hours without raising a finger, all in the name of overturning an election, disqualified him as a candidate and that anyone who would vote for him is immoral. You, on the other hand, DIC, have no Democratic comparable to that in American and criminal behavior. He is either cutting you a big break- I wouldn’t- or recognizes that you are an old misguided man and cannot help yourself, or most likely is lying to you.
DeleteIn American= unAmerican
Delete7:17 on that day he will be an atheist, as he has claimed on this blog previously in order to make a bad faith argument.
DeleteDavid in Cal,
DeleteForget Trump supporters being more open-minded than Trump opponents.
You're not going to believe how much more tolerant Trump supporters are than Trump opponents.
Remember, you read it here first.
"... our own personal Zelig."
DeletePerfect!
Somerby comes close to making a salient point about how Harris lost because of depressed turnout of Dems.
ReplyDeleteIn CA, with automatic mail in ballots now codified and instituted, they are on track to get slightly less than the turnout in 2020, maybe 5-10% less. Extrapolated nationally, this level of turnout, generated by universal mail in ballots, would have resulted in a win for Harris.
It is still less than 2020, which needs explaining, the most likely explanation being issues related to racism and sexism.
But Somerby is focused on the border, not because of evidence, he presents none, so it appears to be a personal bugaboo with him, some kind of xenophobia.
Somerby says: “years of unexplained chaos at the southern border”, except this is inaccurate, there was not chaos at the border related to Biden. There was a wave of immigration, which has happened many times in America, to the benefit of America, and there was chaos under Trump because as immigration increased, Trump instituted inhumane policies. Biden reversed those inhumane policies and then immediately set about dealing with stemming the immigration wave. Note too, that in modern times, waves of immigration are sparked by chaos in the homeland of immigrants, chaos typically the US has a major hand in (see Trump’s disastrous foreign affairs).
Somerby is a poor thinker, and his analysis is inaccurate.
The boarder and inflation were pounded into people's heads relentlessly. Whether it was "years of unexplained chaos" or "a wave of migration, which has happened many times in America" doesn't matter (I happen to agree that it was hyped up). The idea that it was a crisis and unprecedented was plugged to death by certain outlets, and seemed to resonate with a lot of people I know.
DeleteI personally have no idea why individuals voted for Trump, and I am sure that many different people had many different reasons, but if you told me it was because of immigration and inflation, I would certainly believe it.
Somerby didn't think up the point about low turnout. I mentioned it in comments yesterday. Yastreblansky talked about it first. Now that people are taking a closer look at the numbers, the low turnout by Democrats is obvious.
DeleteConsider whether Somerby's focus on the border (which arrived in 2015) is not just a repetition of Republican talking points having nothing to do with Somerby's personal concerns. He is echoing a Republican talking point, as he does nearly every day.
But I agree with your conclusion about Somerby, even if I think you are missing that he continues to reflect the right, not the left, in his essays.
In the short term, like an election cycle, it does not matter much what proximal issue drives one to vote for Trump, since ultimately that vote is baked in at an early stage in life.
DeleteVote switching is just not a significant thing. It’s a distraction.
The key question is why Dem voting was so remarkably depressed, as I also repeatedly pointed out yesterday in comments. The most obvious reason is related to the mechanics of voting, since we can clearly see a huge improvement in turnout in 2020, as mail in ballots were forced by the pandemic. Other reasons are likely related to racism and sexism within Dem voters, and the typical voter suppression tricks employed by the Republicans.
"Biden reversed those inhumane policies and then immediately set about dealing with stemming the immigration wave."
DeleteAny details on this?
I’ve provided details for this repeatedly. It’s easy to find, just Google it.
Delete@11:23 says, CA is on track to get slightly less than the turnout in 2020, maybe 5-10% less. Being less than 2020 needs explaining, "the most likely explanation being issues related to racism and sexism." I would add that CA population dropped by half a million from 2020 to 2024. The drop in eligible voters was probably greater, as illegal immigrants replaced citizens who left the state.
DeleteI agree that the drop in total votes needs explaining. It's certainly possible that many Biden voters didn't vote at all in 2024, due to racism or sexism. OTOH this election had more focus and attention than any in my lifetime. People were told that this was the most important election in history. Also, for the first time, every CA voter was sent an absentee ballot, making it easier than ever to vote. Based on these two factors, I would have expected more votes in 2024.
Trump received less voters in 2024 vs 2020, but to a smaller degree. Most Trump voters do not vote by mail, so Trump not even able to match his 2020 vote is more likely due to less support and enthusiasm for Trump.
DeleteThe drop in CA is relatively slight, the turnout was enough to guarantee a win for Harris nationwide, so it validates the notion that universal mail in ballots would have resulted in a win for Harris.
The slight drop may be in part related to the slight drop in population in CA in the wake of the pandemic, and there needs to be a fuller explanation, the most likely being related to racism and sexism.
What is clear, is that the most significant difference, and therefore the most likely cause of the large drop off of Dem voters nationwide has to do with the mechanics of voting, with secondary concerns being related to racism and sexism, and typical Republican voter suppression tricks.
Voters were not replaced by immigrants.
DeleteImmigrants can not vote, even Trump investigated this and found nothing. Immigrants can not even register to vote.
DeleteImmigrants can and do provide billions every year to our tax revenues and our gdp.
CA was never in play, nor was Texas and the entire Confederacy.
DeleteThe drop in support for Harris from Latino men is definitely due to misogyny, I am sorry to say. They voted for Biden but could not vote for a woman, I have seen interviews on cable confirming this.
Anonymouse 12:33pm, why do you attribute this to misogyny among your fellows when the most obvious explanation is that these people aren’t political junkies and that Comme La, thrown into the spotlight on a moment’s notice, did not make the sell?
DeleteThe world according to 11:23 - Call people racists, sexists, and xenophobes. Repeat over and over and over.
DeleteAt no point consider how such incessant name-calling might harm Blue team electoral results.
why do you attribute this to misogyny
Delete1:24, Because they said so, explicitly.
Anonymouse 2:45pm, so black and Hispanic males have expressly confessed to not voting for Comma La because she has ovaries, rather than her being an unknown entity for that sort of promotion?
Delete3:34, I didn't say black, I said some Latino men. I said I saw evidence of this on a cable show. Are you seriously denying that it was no factor at all?
Delete***********
The owner of a Hispanic radio station in Pennsylvania claimed that Latino men didn’t vote for Vice President Kamala Harris because they have a “mentality” that says a “woman belongs in the kitchen.”
Victor Martinez, who also hosts a show on his La Mega station in Allentown, told MSNBC on Wednesday that Latino men “wouldn’t want a woman president” — which is why they voted in droves for the eventual winner, President-elect Donald Trump.
“The man, he’s the one, the provider. And we’re the boss, and we still, unfortunately, have a lot of Latinos with that mentality where the woman belongs in the kitchen,” Martine said during an interview with anchor Nicolle Wallace.
Martinez said the men who would call into his radio show would swear they couldn’t accept a female leader and that he would push back by citing examples from other countries — to no avail.
“I brought you audio of men calling my show and telling me, ‘No, no, no, she won‘t be respected. No, no, no. There is no way she can handle the job.’ And I will argue with them on the air, and I will bring examples of other female powerful leaders in the world, and they seem not to want to hear it,” he said.
https://nypost.com/2024/11/07/media/hispanic-men-voters-shunned-kamala-harris-because-they-think-a-woman-belongs-in-the-kitchen-radio-host/
How could electoral votes be better by leaving bigots alone?
DeleteBigotry changes with education, peer pressure and ways of teaching empathy. The idea it is fixed is not consistent with research. Look how bigotry increased with Trump’s encouragement. It can be decreased with effort (what you call scolding).
DeleteAnonymouse 4:00pm, Hillary Clinton beat Trump’s pants off in the Latino vote in 2016.
DeleteShe was a well-known personality. A famous person.
Comma La not so much.
PP,
DeleteThank you for not judging 11:23 for anything he writes here. Judging people for their words and actions , would make you "woke".
Here is part of what Digby says about explaining the outcome:
ReplyDelete"Yet when the country elects a fascist demagogue, misogynists and racists are not the go-to fall guys for the press and pundit class. Nor economic or status anxiety. It’s Democrats.
Why did Kamala Harris’s message of joy and hope fail? What might Democrats have done differently to woo the working class? What if they had edged out Joe Biden earlier? Did Harris listen to the wrong consultants? Did she spend too much time (or too little) courting the wrong set of voters? Was she too far left? Not left enough? Did Democrats focus too much on the wrong inequalities? Did Democrats fail “the test of persuasion“?
Is it just me, or is it nuts that pundits are analyzing why Democrats lost the 2024 election without examining what’s happened to American society? That patriarchy will not go quietly? Or that 73 million of us chose an autocratic, misogynist felon, xenophobe, and national security risk because, as Brian Beutler put it, “the price of bacon increased“? As if millions face violent deportation, Ukrainians face learning Russian, Gazans face unfettered slaughter, and the world witnesses the collapse of NATO and the advent of fascism American-style because the Democratic Party has a marketing problem?"
I agree that there should be more discussion of the role of misogyny in the aftermath of Trump's win. That is so obvious from Trump's appeal to bros via Joe Rogan, and the crowing of Nick Fuentes and others over their triumph over women, that the absence of mention is glaring in its meaning. For women, it is one step forward and two steps back, and that is no more fair than anything else in our society.
The people blaming "unjustified" economic malaise for Trump's win are also close. I agree with those suggesting that this is about income equality, not deprivation. And few people are discussing that either.
Some explanations require doubling down on Democratic values. It sounds like Somerby and his ilk are instead discussing selling out to Trumpism. I do not plan to do that. But that is the typical Republican response (with notable exceptions). Which explanation you choose to believe dictates what you will do and who you will be over the next 5 years. Choose carefully.
Somerby's facile dismissal of the ideas of others has nothing to do with open-mindedness, David.
“I agree that there should be more discussion of the role of misogyny in the aftermath of Trump's win.”
DeleteMore discussion? It’s always THE discussion and the go-to explainstion. Only this time you’re going have to do your act of psychoanalytical paintballing on a bunch of chicks.
Hitler was intolerant of criticism, made bombastic claims about his own achievements and had scorn for intellectuals and experts.
DeleteAs his finance minister observed, “Hitler was so thoroughly untruthful he could no longer recognize the difference between lies and truth. But his followers craved ‘authenticity’ and facts no longer mattered.
Public rituals of choreographed humiliation portrayed Nazi opponents as weak and ridiculous, and turned entertained spectators into accomplices by virtue of their voyeuristic pleasure.
Ultimately the great achievement of the Third Reich was getting Germans to see themselves as the Nazis did: as an imperiled people who had created for themselves a new lease on collective life, that to make Germany great was to narrate a great awakening.
Rogan and Musk illustrate the left's closed-mindedness and how it hurts them. Rogan and Musk were always Democrats. Rogan was far enough left to support Bernie Sanders. But, when they deviated some from standard liberal beliefs, they were cast out. Conservatives welcomed them, even though they both apparently still hold many liberal views.
DeleteAt least German citizens had a legitimate gripe over the onerous Treaty of Versailles. Maggots here just had shit shoveled down their skulls for decades by demagogues such as Rush Limpdick and Rupert Murdoch. This is the end of democracy in this country. I have heard that the average republic lasts about 250 years, so our time was up, I guess.
DeleteIn this election, it was clearly the Democrats. Duh. Trump could not even muster the same votes from 2020, when he was easily defeated.
DeleteTrump could have and should have been easily defeated this year, but Dems did not vote.
Republican tricks aside (which are not insignificant), this was on Dems, they failed at motivating turnout.
@11:55. Don’t give up. Make them work for it.
DeleteDavid, Rogan and Musk are motivated by financial self-interest.
DeleteRogan and Musk were never Democrats. Fake news.
DeleteCecelia loves to hate.
Delete12:19, I am not giving up, I just see no way forward anymore. They control everything. Mass propaganda really works.
DeleteVan Jones (a liberal) explains it
Delete“If progressives have a politics that says all white people are racist, all men are toxic, and all billionaires are evil it’s kinda hard to keep them on your side. If you're chasing people out of the party, you can't be mad when they leave.”
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1854380732023472187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1854380732023472187%7Ctwgr%5E9ee18774481a17512e4cc92cbcea2c71c98c27b7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F683219%2F
Anonymouse 12:36pm, I don’t hate anonymices. You’re mices.
DeleteDigby makes me wonder how Hillary Clinton managed to win the popular vote.
DeleteShe should have won, moron.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAnonymouse 3:47pm, yes, Hillary did win the popular vote. She beat Trump’s pants off in that, which is the point, Einstein.
DeleteWhy no sexism towards Clinton from voters in 2016? Could it be that she was/is a well known and proven politician in the way that Harris is not?
No sexism? You’re joking. The most qualified candidate in US history lost.
DeleteCandidates running for re-election in the setting of increased prices always lose and Republicans cast Harris as a surrogate for Biden. Successfully. Increased prices are sticky because any downward trend in the absence of increased sales volume lowers stock prices, so Trump will not be fixing that, but he can easily worsen it with tariffs. Going forward, Democrats should realize that in those rare times when the economy does this during a Democratic administration, the president needs to be primaried. The power structure of the organization will not likely allow this, however. In large part it boils down to an electorate that is hurting, doesn't understand how the economy works, and needs a scapegoat.
DeleteAs events unfold, it increasingly appears that those of us that live in CA, live not in America, but in our own country.
ReplyDeleteA country that is the 5th largest economy in the world, 2nd largest by per capita.
CA is the primary driver of the economy and gdp in America, and our governor is moving to block Trumpism.
God bless those that do not live in CA, they may not live in CA but they live off of our work.
The vote of one cowboy in Wyoming is equal to the vote of 3.65 Californians. The vote of that cowboy in the Senate is equal to the vote of 67 Californians. What makes you think we live in a democracy?
DeleteYou're not talking about the California that red staters revile, are you? That's not possible.
DeleteMany seem to blame the media, based on the call for a 24/7 Democratic equivalent to Fox news.
ReplyDeleteAnonymouse 12:17pm, we have that. It’s called MSNBCNN.
DeleteAnonymouse 12:17pm, or perhaps the pushback to FNC that anonymices have massively insulted Somerby for advocating?
Delete@12:58: Those are not equivalent to Fox News. There isn’t anywhere near the level of propaganda and lies. As an example, Fox had to pay almost $800,000,000 dollars for spreading some of the right wing lies about voting machines. I realize the media you consume didn’t inform you of that, but it’s true nonetheless.
DeleteAnonymouse 1:45pm, I’ll wholeheartedly go with your scenario. Bob said the same thing. He called for critical attention from the rest of the media and linked to transcripts of programs.
DeleteYet anonymices roundly insulted him and accused him of promoting FNC and wasting everyone’s time.
Where’s your apology?
I can’t speak for those who said that, because that wasn’t me. Your deflection is noted.
DeleteNo one owes you an apology.
DeleteAnonymouse 4:03pm, it was you. You are an anonymouse.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:19pm, she should apologize to Bob, not me.
When, after the wild fires in Australia were attributed in part by climatologists to global warming, Australians took note. Rupert Murdoch had a firm grip on the politics in Australia until then, insofar as he owns 75% of its print media. But in the next election cycle after the fires, his conservative climate change denying candidates lost. At this point his media empire in Australia deliberately made an about face regarding the climate and called for a zero carbon economy by 2050. This being the US, populated by a large group of people who distrust those more educated than them as elitist, Murdoch can continue to push an anti science agenda to his target audience, a bunch of misguided undereducated but self assured yahoos.
DeleteDo not obey in advance. Do not preemptively kowtow to authoritarians.
ReplyDeleteAnonymouse 12:34, you’re going to have to come out from under your bed at some point.
DeleteHaha fascism is so funny.
DeleteAnonymouse 5:18pm, step up to the plate and be an adult, not a cowering mouse.
DeleteAre you kidding me?
DeleteMy grandfathers fought fascists in WWII. Trump can call them "suckers:" and "losers" all he wants.
My steel toe boots, from my last job, are going to come in handy as I kick fascists in the head.
Good luck, clowns.
#howyoulikemytolerancenow
Anonymouse 10:24pm, well, it’s been awhile since you were looting and burning on U.S. streets.
DeleteI’m sure you’ve missed that.
News story that's important to me
ReplyDeleteHunting Jews
Hundreds of Muslim and Arab men in Amsterdam chasing and beating up Jews.
"There's been a pogrom in the streets of Amsterdam. We have become the Gaza of Europe"
Not all sources reporting the attacks are identifying Muslims and Arabs as the predominant attackers, but I find it believable.
Dutch problem. Has nothing to do with the US.
DeleteThanks for your response, Ilya. Do you really not care about human disasters outside the US? Dead and maimed Palestinian children? Starving Haitians? Persecuted Uyghurs in China? Women in Saudi Arabia who lack ordinary human rights? The million+ people killed in Ukraine?
DeleteBTW the events in Amsterdam may not affect you, but they do affect me. There are communities in the US that are heavily Muslim. I am concerned that Jews may be welcome and safe in those communities.
I do care about human disasters outside of the US. I care quite a bit actually. For instance, I care about the disaster in Gaza and Ukraine and other places. What happened in the Netherlands is not a disaster. It's a law enforcement incident. They will handle it just fine.
DeleteAre you sure that Muslims would be safe in heavily Jewish Orthodox communities? I doubt that Jews would be unsafe in heavily Muslim communities. I'd be more concerned about certain Trump supporters.
DeleteI don't believe that news report is true. The first wave of reports said some Jews were cursing Arabs and tearing down their flags and the second wave says Jews were being beat up by Arabs - without reporting they had been accused of tearing down flags and being racist towards them. This makes me think it is spin on the part of Israel.
Delete@Anon 3:55: I just read this as well.
DeleteBoth could be true. Some Jews made racist comments about Muslims and mobs of Muslims chased down Jews in the street and beat them so badly that some needed hospitalization.
DeleteI also read that the attack on the Jews was planned in advance. Police were warned of what was coming.
The way you present it up top doesn't mention the racist comments and tearing down of the flags on the part of the Israelis, which is documented. Any news report you may read that doesn't mention them either is probably Israeli propaganda. So be careful not to let them spin you.
DeleteIn either case, it's a local law enforcement issue. I don't see how it bleeds into anything else.
DeleteI’d guess that the young and dumb Israeli fans acted like racist jerks, got their butts kicked for it, and then Israeli's propaganda mechanisms spun the event to play the victim. And in a few days, it’ll likely be forgotten altogether.
Delete@5:08 and @4:54 present scenarios from their imagination. All they have to do is look for reputable news reports to confirm the allegations against the Islamic mobs.
DeleteI don't dispute that mobs of racist Israeli soccer fans went around Amsterdam saying 'Fuck the Arabs' (you can see videos of them doing it) and some Israeli soccer fans later got their ass kicked by Islamic mobs (ditto for video).
DeleteDavid, don't you agree that Israeli soccer fans deserve to have their ass kicked when they go around another country saying 'Fuck the Arabs'?
DeleteThat's is simply what happens when you march around chanting racist slogans in a foreign country. You get your ass kicked. That's all that happened.
I don’t think David is prepared for what will be unleashed in this country.
DeleteThe “some Jewish fans” were large bands of Jews shouting slogans about the IDF and tearing down Palestinian flags. They incited violence in a foreign country and got their collective asses kicked, and then in typical fashion, were portrayed as victims. Some certainly were innocent. It is certainly likely that they were not welcomed by the Muslim community. I would advise Muslim soccer fans not to go into a country with Jewish ghettos and chant about Hamas.
DeleteThe political failure of Bidenomics was a key factor in the Democrats’ defeat.
ReplyDeleteBut watch: On Trump's very first day in office, he will transform the economy into the greatest economy the world has ever seen.
DeleteOh, he doesn’t have to do anything. Biden has handed him a great economy, which Trump will take credit for. I will say, if prices don’t fall on goods and services, I would ask to rescind my vote, 12:54.
DeleteI didn't vote for Trump.
DeleteThen you must know that bidenomics was not a failure.
DeleteI feel it failed to rally support among working-class voters which was a factor in the Democrat's electoral failure.
DeleteIt's hard to explain root causes of inflation, some of which have to do with Trump's first administration. The usual way things get shaken out is during the primary debates, which didn't happen this time around. This, in my opinion, was the fundamental problem in these elections. In fact, I doubt that Harris would've been nominated.
DeleteAlthough Bidenomics was an astounding economic success, it was an abject political failure. Perhaps if Blue Media hadn't been screaming "Trump Trump Trump Jail!" all the time it might have been able to communicate the extent of the economic miracle we have just witnessed. After a rapid recovery from a steep depression, we now have strong GDP growth, full employment, stable prices, record-setting capital markets, rising productivity, and real wage growth, particularly for the lower quintiles. This is the best economy in the world, by far, and it's competing with the Clinton economy as the best the world has ever seen.
DeleteDo you have any thoughts on the role of the national debt and its impact on these impressive achievements?
DeletePP - Trump already transformed the economy to a degree. Yesterday’s huge rise in the stock market is itself a boost to the economy.
DeleteDiC, don't be so modest. There was also a spike in the bond market, indicating the higher interest rates and inflation to come.
DeleteTransformed the economy
DeleteNew York
CNN
—
Wednesday wasn’t just a good day for Donald Trump. The wealth of the world’s 10 richest people also soared by a record amount, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index.
The biggest gainer was Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and one of Trump’s most outspoken and dedicated supporters, whose wealth jumped $26.5 billion to $290 billion Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ wealth grew $7.1 billion a week after defending his decision to withhold the Washington Post’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, another Trump supporter, saw his net worth rose $5.5 billion Wednesday.
Other gainers include former Microsoft executives Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, former Google executives Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Although none of those billionaires endorsed a candidate this year, they have spoken in favor of Democratic candidates and causes in the past.
Collectively, the top 10 richest people gained $64 billion.
5:17: Trump's 8 trillion dollar contribution to the national debt is probably what you have in mind. His tax relief law is set to expire during his term, and if continued will add another projected 2 trillion dollars to the debt. That and his tariff plans, if enacted, would lead to an estimated 8 trillion dollars in additional debt during his second term, per economic forecasters, for a total of 16 trillion Trump debt dollars over his two terms. Which is why 23 Nobel Prize winning economists signed a statement specifically criticizing his economic plan as markedly inferior to Harris's.The worldwide inflation after COVD did its most damage was apparently Harris's fault. A major grocer in Florida, Publix, with an ownership family member of who contributed heavily to Trump's January 6th event, posted an earnings per share increase of 48% in 2023, again the fault of the vice president. Meanwhile, the recession predicted during Biden's administration did not occur, nor did the soft landing, much to the chagrin of negative pundits like Michael Burry of The Big Short fame, as the US economy outperformed during the last four years.
DeleteSo it begins. DiC never credited Biden with all the record high stock markets, but he’s sure ready to give Trump credit for this one. Same as it ever was.
DeleteFroggy - Yes, the deficit spending was the stimulus that got us out of the deep Covid depression. That spending triggered a spike in inflation, which was brought under control through higher interest rates.
DeleteThe resulting boom - which we’re currently enjoying - comes with its own problems, the most pressing of which is the deficit. We should now be addressing the deficit through tax hikes and spending cuts because the boom is the time for austerity.
DG: exactly. Only tax hikes aren’t going to happen and spending cuts will be targeted at the SS/Medicare.
Delete"I feel it failed to rally support among working-class voters which was a factor in the Democrat's electoral failure.
DeleteFeelings, Feelings.
What is it that the Right says about feelings, again?
DG,
DeleteInterest rates were raised to slowdown the economy, because leverage had gone to workers and away from ownership. Raising interest at times like that, are designed to give leverage back to business owners.
If you believe inflation was caused by deficit spending, the way to lower inflation is by taxing the excess money out of the economy, not raising interest rates.
On the other hand, if you think inflation is caused by price-gouging, the way to lower inflation is through anti-monopoly/ anti-trust legislation and enforcement.
The economic ignorance of the populate is a real problem, as was shown this week.
It’s not just the 3% or so margin of victory. 48 states, including deep blue CA, NY, NJ and IL shifted right, some by double digits compared to 2020. That is what we call a Red Wave, assuming 2020 was a fair election.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-shattering-of-the-democratic has more detailed analysis.
"assuming 2020 was a fair election."
DeleteCareful, bub. Der Trumpster has said it was NOT a fair election. Speculation otherwise is verboten!
Anonymouse 1:29pm, anonymices reacted to Somerby’s angst about the perils as to Biden’s decline and Harris’ stepping up in the same spirit that you are now satirizing in your post.Anonymices used the same accent too.
Deleteassuming 2020 was a fair election.
DeleteWhat I don't understand: why couldn't Democrats steal this election as they did in 2020. Have they forgotten how to steal elections? Can someone explain this to me.
It's not a "red wave", it's the "blue trickle" that doomed Harris.
1:35,
Deleteas usual, I have no idea what point you're trying to make.
Indeed there was no pattern like this, this year.
DeleteWhy? Perhaps The Donald was too far ahead this time, giving them no chance.
Anonymouse 2:26pm, annonymices also called it disloyalty (with a German accent) whenever Bob voiced speculative doubts about Biden’s ability to continue on.
DeleteIlya, how has Trump managed to win an election without a cadre of Russian agents?
DeleteWhat makes you think he didn’t have Russian help, 3:25?
DeleteAnonymouse 3:25pm, what makes you think that Trump did? I don’t assume such things. Biden did manage to beat Trump in 2020. Did the Ruskies like Biden more?
DeleteHe won, that’s how we know, plus those deep fakes and trolling and bomb threats to polling places reported in the news.
Delete“ He won, that’s how we know.”
DeleteThat is self-referential to the core.
Well we know that a half dozen social media influencers were busted taking large sums of money to spread Putin disinformation for instance. Why do so many Americans feel it is not our nation's duty to protect Ukraine? Dump NATO. Come on now.
DeleteAnonymouse 7:59pm, take a look at this:
Deletehttps://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential-election-influencers-trump-999435273dd39edf7468c6aa34fad5dd
8:48 When this was reported originally, Harris, in an interview about the Russians spreading misinformation, suggested they be prosecuted, which the right wing immediately criticized as unconstitutional.
Delete4:08 Trump had an approval rating so low for his botched response to COVID, and other issues, such that Russian based misinformation could not elevate him against Biden in 2020. A Harris poll approval rating of 31% for Trump was registered in 2021. Of course, this was after the January 6 event that he orchestrated.
DeleteAnonymouse 11:11pm, the sort of fame that comes with podcasting is relatively new. Podcasters garner huge audiences and make big bucks.
DeleteIt’s no surprise that foreign governments would try to get their message out via this popular outlet. The podcasters say they that werent aware that their employers were involved with Russians. They also said that they never uttered an opinion that they didn’t actually harbor in their hearts.
There are differences between the right and left as to Ukraine. There were differences between the right and the left as to the handling of the USSR and the Cold War in general, back in the day, with conservatives being the hawks and liberals described as more dovish. It’s more than likely that “influencers” took advantage of that at the time.
If these podcast companies have committed a crime via obscuring their partnerships with foreign entities or there being no registrations as to foreign business involvement, then they should pay whatever penalty is placed on them. If the corps have all the paperwork in order, then it is what it is. Otherwise, what is advocated by these podcasters as to their take on our approach to Russia, is most certainly free speech.
Anonymouse 11:19pm, consider that no one, foreign or domestic, could have helped Comma La in her campaign. Biden’s presidency went down in a heap after the debate. Harris was made the candidate and the polls went up and down, but did not hint of the loss that she experienced in certain demographics. That surprised you. You’re struggling for a narrative as to this turn of events. Polling companies should consider the shame factor that comes about via liberal racial and gender polemics. People are going to say one thing to pollsters and do another thing in a voting booth.
DeleteI don't think people lie to pollsters. People wouldn't give a fuck about dumbass state-run media shaming. Pollsters lie, that's for sure.
DeleteAnonymouse 10:01pm, regular people obscure their true opinions all the time out of concern that they’ll be labeled with some pejorative or another. How polls set up questions makes a difference as well.
Delete10:01,
Deletedidn't Mommy tell you not to have a potty mouth?
Democrats are pure evil.
ReplyDeleteA federal disaster relief official ordered workers to bypass the homes of Donald Trump’s supporters as they surveyed damage caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida, according to internal correspondence obtained by The Daily Wire and confirmed by multiple federal employees.
A FEMA supervisor told workers in a message to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida to identify residents who could qualify for federal aid, internal messages viewed by The Daily Wire reveal.
The supervisor, Marn’i Washington, relayed this message both verbally and in a group chat used by the relief team, multiple government employees told The Daily Wire.
“I know they’re short-staffed, I thought we could go help and make a difference,” one of the employees said. “When we got there we were told to discriminate against people. It’s almost unbelievable to think that somebody in the federal government would think that’s okay.”
The employee said it felt wrong to discriminate against Trump supporters when they were at their “most vulnerable.”
“I volunteered to help disaster victims, not discriminate against them,” the employee said. “It didn’t matter if people were black, white, Hispanic, for Trump, for Harris. Everyone deserves the same amount of help.”
Da, Boris. Demokratic Party is pure evil. Please now to go stand by window.
DeleteJaggoff
DeleteSays The Daily Wire. Nice try. When a news source that that does not get mixed reviews for putting out right wing propaganda reports on this, it will warrant consideration. Otherwise we will rely on governors and mayors to report on FEMA and their work, noting of course that Trump lied about them and their work in N. Carolina.
Delete4:40,
DeleteWe don't live in a good enough country for something that great to happen.
6:47 it's good to be out front with views like yours because it's only when we're honest do we invite argument about why your view is wrong and open the possibility of enlightening you. Hating your political enemy while pretending that you uphold norms such as that we don't deny people emergency assistance due to their politics keeps these toxic ideas hidden and unchanged.
DeleteI assume, after Tuesday, we no longer honor D-Day.
ReplyDeleteYes?
Operation 44:
ReplyDeleteRelease agent Fanny Gass.
Wilhoit’s Law:
ReplyDelete"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Happy that you're on board for holding Liz Cheney accountable for her criminal communications with liar Cassidy Hutchinson.
DeleteWhat kind of communications are 'criminal' communications, praytell?
DeleteShow me the woman I'll show you the crime.
Deletewhat a topic
ReplyDelete