Has Scott Brown survived his stand: Who will win the Massachusetts senate race?
We have no idea. But in this morning’s Washington Post, Rachel Weiner reports that Scott Brown has now registered an eight to ten-point lead in the last three statewide polls. Beyond that, Weiner notes that Brown’s lead seems to have survived his stand in support of the Blunt amendment:
WEINER (3/6/12): Two polls out this past weekend show Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) pulling ahead of Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in his reelection battle.Sometimes polls are wrong. It may turn out that Brown was hurt by his position on Blunt.
A Western New England Polling Institute survey taken Feb. 23 to March 1 has Brown beating Warren by 49 percent to 41 percent if the election were held today.
It was the third survey in a row showing Brown in the lead. A poll last week by the consulting firm Opinion Dynamics showed Brown winning by 52 percent to 42 percent; a Suffolk University poll in mid-February gave him a nine-point lead.
The most recent poll was taken after Brown backed an amendment allowing moral exemptions from prescription coverage—in what became a failed attempt to limit mandatory free birth-control coverage—suggesting that in the short term, that position has not hurt him.
Still, our thoughts drifted back to Rachel Maddow’s air of certainty concerning Brown’s stand on Blunt. She marveled at the solon’s decision on the February 16 Maddow Show:
MADDOW (2/16/12): One of the Republicans who signed on to support the Blunt amendment is a Republican freshman senator named Scott Brown from Massachusetts. He’s being challenged in his re-election effort by our next guest, Elizabeth Warren, this November.Maddow played tape of the exchange which she considered “devastating.” After that, she showed how incredibly daring she is, contemptuously talking back to the videotape version of Brown, whom she bravely referred to as “Dude.”
Senator Brown has tried to cultivate a sense, at least in Massachusetts, that he is a moderate, which is why a lot of people were surprised by this move against contraception. Those surprised included both the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald, which usually loves everything he does.
It also led to this rather devastating exchange between Senator Brown and reporter from the hometown news outlet New England Cable News.
You really could see that she's on our side! Two weeks later, out came a new poll with Brown in an 8-point lead.
Brown may not be in the lead. He may end up being hurt by his stance on Blunt. Then again, Maddow may not understand the way this issue appears to Bay State voters.
Maddow is always amazingly sure of herself. She tends to think that if an issue strikes her a certain way, it will seem that way to the voters.
Within the tribe, this air of certainty is a significant part of her entertainment value. But when it comes to grasping the outlook of everyday voters, she’s also quite frequently wrong.
As always, she seemed very sure of her take. As usual, was she wrong?
Regarding the Boston Herald: You always have to fact-check Maddow. “The Boston Herald” doesn’t seem to have challenged Brown’s stance on Blunt. On February 16, his position was criticized by columnist Margery Eagan, one of the Herald’s liberal-leaning voices. Just click here.
You always have to fact-check Maddow. Unless you just like thrills up your leg, you shouldn’t believe what she says.
(It's pretty much as we've always said: We could have a terrific election here—if it weren't for the voters!)