WEDNESDAY: What does the state of Texas want?

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 6, 2025

What does California already have? Just for the record, our personal preference would be these:

Our personal druthers:
We would prefer that every state conduct its congressional redistricting every ten years, and only then, based on the new census data.

We would prefer that every state try to create congressional districts which are as geographically compact as possible, with reasonable respect being paid to city and county lines.

Those are the practices we would prefer. That said, those practices aren't required by law, which brings us to the current war which is breaking out between Texas and California.

Let's consider what Texas Republicans are hoping to get:

Texas is often described as a deep red state. That said, we'd score it as only 56% Republican and 44% Democratic, based on results from last year's presidential and congressional elections (including its Senate race).

In last year's elections, Republicans were roughly 56% of the two-party vote in Texas. That said, here's the way the Texas congressional delegation stacks up at this point:

Texas congressional delegation, at present:
Republicans: 25
Democrats: 13

With 56 or maybe 57% of the two-party vote, Texas Republicans hold 65.8% of the state's congressional seats. President Trump says they deserve to hold more of those seats. This is the breakdown they're seeking:

Texas congressional delegation, after proposed redistricting:
Republicans: 30
Democrats: 8

That would take Texas Republicans all the way up to 78.9% of the congressional seats, based on only 56% of the two party-vote!

Based on that stated intention, Governor Newsome is threatening to fight back. He says that two can play that game—but judging by the basic data, it can almost start to look like California already has!

For the record, this:

Based on last year's elections (presidential, Senate and House) we'd say that Democrats represent roughly 59% of California's two-party vote. In that sense, California is (very slightly) bluer than Texas is red.

California is bluer than Texas is red, but just by a small amount. That said, here's the current breakdown of California's House delegation:

California congressional delegation, at present:
Democrats: 43
Republicans: 9

At present, California Democrats hold 82.7% of the state's congressional seats, even before any sudden redistricting! In California, Democrats already hold a larger percentage of seats than Republicans hope to acquire by redistricting down in Texas.

As everyone knows, California's current districts were created by what is described as a nonpartisan commission. Indeed, there may well have been zero attempts at gerrymandering in the creation of the current districts. All we're saying is this:

As the latest civil war starts, it might be worth becoming familiar with the numbers in these two states as those numbers already exist.

According to Governor Newsome, Cali may decide to gerrymander now too. We're not saying that they should; we aren't saying they shouldn't. But here's the new partisan breakdown California's Democrats would reportedly be hoping to attain:

California congressional delegation, after possible redistricting:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 4

("It could result in as many as five new blue seats and Democrats holding all but four of California’s 52 congressional districts, according to a slide presented to members of Congress and viewed by POLITICO." Click here.)

Are those the numbers the California Democrats might seek? If so, they would then control 92.3% of the state's delegation, with Texas Republicans dreaming of the chance to control a percentage which would be substantially smaller.

Again, we're not saying what's right and what's wrong. We're just presenting the numbers.

As a final point, this:

Imagine a state whose electorate is 60% Party A and 40% Party B. There's nothing in American tradition or law which says that forty percent of that state's congressional seats should be held by Party B. Something like that might seem to be fair, but there's no such law or practice. 

In fact, consider this:

If, by some magical process, the population of that state was evenly distributed all over the state, you could imagine that every district, no matter how scrupulously drawn, would end up with 60% Party A and 40% Party B.

Party A would win every seat! This is the planet we've chosen.