MONDAY: Who will win those Senate seats?

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026

There's a chance we might even find out: Who will win the (thirty-five) Senate seats at stake in tomorrow's elections? A new report by the New York Times reports the numbers from a final set of NYT/Siena polls:

Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find  

Democrats are ahead of Republicans in almost all of the seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate, according to the final set of polls from The New York Times and Siena University before the midterm elections.

The surveys found that Democrats hold sizable leads in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which has not elected one since 1932.

To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to defend all the seats they currently hold and flip at least four seats that are currently held by Republicans. It has been seen as an uphill battle because many of the seats they need to win are in Republican strongholds.

But the new polls found Democratic candidates ahead in five states that now have Republican senators and effectively tied in a sixth. They hold leads in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas and a narrow edge in Alaska. They are effectively tied in Iowa.   

And so on from there.

Happy Days are here again! But only if the actual voting turns out that way tomorrow!   

We humans! Endless time is being burned today with endless prognostication.  Of course, even the most recent polls are already out of date! 

Meanwhile, who's gonna win those thirty-five seats?  If we can wait for one more day, there's a chance we might even find out!


SELF GOVERNMENT: Or current attempts at same!

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026

Solon changes her mind: We humans are allowed to change our minds. We're also allowed to change our public positions.   

Yesterday, Haley Stevens may, or may not, have changed her mind, But she definitely changed her public position. 

She had endorsed Candidate El-Sayed—but yesterday, she flipped, endorsing Candidate Rogers! When we humans attempt to engage in self-government, it will sometimes look like this. We'll highlight a few key points:

REP. HALEY STEVENS (11/1/26): Well, thank you. And greetings to the press corps.

My name is Haley Stevens. I'm a proud Democrat. And I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate.

I am one vote in this state. Michigan is a swing state. And I have a divided household, as some of you have heard, up until last night. But even my own mother cast her vote for Mike Rogers as my own father cast his vote for Abdul.

This is a very close election. We all know that. But Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign. That he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there. And at some point, you got to look at who's standing for country.

You know, there's always a lot of elections taking place in America. And this is one. I'm going to cast my ballot. I still haven't done that. And 90 percent of the votes I'm going to cast are going to be for Democrats.

My vote for Senate, I am just one vote, as is every Michigander, my vote for Senate is going to be with Mike Rogers. And I will tell you why:

Because we have to stand with country. We can't stand with hate. We can't stand with Hasan Piker.

A friend of mine was talking about how education is on the ballot, and it's very true. There's a lot of young people looking at this election.

You know, I was a young person once. And we've got to make a choice about who is standing with them.

I think that Chuck Schumer is going to become the majority leader, you know. And I think that there are incredible Democrats and incredible activity taking place across this country.

I stood with my party and I was booed off the stage. And, you know, it was violently shouted down. You know, I was up there with other Democrats. Those people who were on that stage with me, they're going to make their choice.

The ballot box is still very personal and private. And today, in a moment of faith, tied to my faith and to this great city, by the way, I'm standing here with a guy named Mike Rogers.

And there's another guy named Mike who ran the city of Detroit for 12 years. And a lot of Detroiters voted for him. And, you know, he kind of looks like this guy.

And you know what happened with that Mike? You know, he stepped out of his party. He put up his hand for a brief while. He was running for governor.

You know, I don't know everything that's going to happen, you know. And all I can do is lead with love and integrity.

This was a personal and private decision. I woke up this morning and I decided to go to church. And I'm here with the person who I am voting for, for United States Senate.   

Hmm. She decided to go to church, and then she was there with Mike Rogers!

For the record, many people in the state of Michigan are going to vote for Mike Rogers. If we were voting in Michigan, we'd vote for Candidate El-Sayed, but there's no way to prove that the other vote is "wrong."   

That said, it's hard to miss the sense of self-involvement in this first attempt by Stevens to explain her last-minute flip. We refer to such statements as this:  

"I have a divided household, as some of you have heard, up until last night." 

That was an apparent reference to herself and her fiancĂ©, who had already come out for Rogers. Also, the solon now copped to this:  

Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign. That he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there.

Solon, please! Nominees routinely decide who they will, and who they won't, gain votes by campaigning with. That statement made it sound like Rep. Stevens was taking it personally—like she might have changed her vote because her feelings had been hurt. So, of course, did this:   

I stood with my party and I was booed off the stage. And, you know, it was violently shouted down.

Some Democratic Party voters booed her! It's natural to be hurt by some events, but should that have helped decide who she would endorse?   

The whole thing sounded quite self-referential. Moments later, so did this:   

REPORTER: What’s your message to Democrats who are upset that, throughout the primary, you said you would endorse the Democratic nominee, and you’re not doing so today?  

STEVENS: Yeah, and I’m sorry people are upset, and I understand that. I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close his campaign by saying I wasn’t welcome.

I’ve never been invited to a campaign event? That’s fine! You know, he’s busy, he’s running all around. I’ve had primaries before myself. It’s not about that. 

This is about leadership and integrity. his is about looking in the mirror, about how real Democrats for Rogers are, constituents of mine that are out there putting themselves out there publicly, and others who aren't.

And that's fine! There’s going to be people who agree with me, people who disagree with me—all the love to them. And all the excitement for what is down the road. 

Amid the piffle, there was a strong hint of self-involvement in that statement too. She's never been invited to a campaign event, she said, even as she assured the world that her flip wasn't about that.  

Personally, we would vote for Candidate El-Sayed; several million Michiganders may vote the other way. Before moving on, we want to record one more set of facts:

To borrow from Stevens' repeated lnguage, it's a set of facts "about country"—about the country shared by these same-age pols: 

Haley Stevens: 
Stevens is 43 years old. She was born and raised in Michigan.  After graduating from high school, she went to American U. in D.C., where she received a Bachelor of Arts in political science and philosophy and a Master of Arts in social policy and philosophy.   

Abdul El-Sayed: 
El-Sayed is 42 years old. He was born and raised in Michigan.  After graduating from high school, "he graduated Phi Beta Kappa with highest distinction" from the University of Michigan, then went to Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar. "In 2014, he completed a Doctor of Medicine degree at the Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons."

Our translation: Each was born and raised in this country. What was Stevens trying to say? 

We humans are allowed to change our minds. We're even allowed to be wrong! 

Routinely, we're less than perfectly rational. That can make self-government hard.

 Tomorrow: Sunday New York Times, page 1 (print editions only!)