NARROW MARGINS: Clinton keeps winning the popular vote!

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2016

Part 1—Also, those narrow margins:
Whenever Jamison Foser speaks, the analysts sit up and listen.

Two days ago, Foser tweeted. He made a suggestions to pollsters:

"If anyone is polling in the next few weeks I suggest asking 'Who won the popular vote for president?' The results will terrify you."

Thus tweeted Foser. Later, he noted that one polling outfit, YouGov, had already polled this question.

How many people know that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote? YouGov polled that question in a survey conducted from November 12 through November 15. Click here, see questions 19 and 20.

According to the YouGov survey, 52 percent of respondents said Clinton won the popular vote. According to YouGov, 39 percent of respondents mistakenly said that Trump did.

How accurate was that YouGov survey? We can't tell you that. YouGov's presentation strikes us as confusing. Also, its numbers don't seem to make sense in certain basic ways.

Most disturbingly, we can't even blame the whole thing on The Others. According to YouGov, 29 percent of Democrats said Trump received more votes. So did 38 percent of both black and Hispanic respondents—and blacks and Hispanics are commonly known to be Us!

Presumably, someone else will survey this question. Meanwhile, we've been struck by the lack of reporting about the popular vote.

For the second time in the last five elections, the Democratic standard-bearer is going to be "the biggest loser" despite having won the popular vote. That strikes us as an important occurrence.

Inevitably, it's receiving little press coverage. Let's offer some info here:

By now much did Candidate Clinton win the popular vote?

Even now, no one can say. Votes are still being counted, especially, it seems, in California.

Heaven help us if we ever have an election that turns on a narrow Golden State race. The public will have to twiddle its thumbs for weeks while the surfers and the slackers adjust for the three-hour time difference.

How far ahead is Clinton right now in the popular vote?

We've been following the count through a site at the Washington Post. As we type, this is the state of the popular vote, as reported at that site:
Current state of the popular vote:
Clinton: 62.39 million votes (48.0%)
Trump: 61.13 million votes (47.0%)
As such, Trump's mandate currently stands at minus 1.3 million votes. That "victory margin" is expected to grow, although you can't learn much about this matter from our major news orgs.

The nation's savants have said that Clinton will end up winning by two million votes. We don't know if that prediction is accurate, especially since all their prior assesstimates turned out to be wrong.

That said, our big news orgs have shown little interest in reporting this matter. In part for that reason, a substantial chunk of the public seems to be misinformed. But then, what else is new?

How did Clinton lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote?

You're asking a good question! In our view, there are several important parts of this horror movie. Between now and Thanksgiving, we plan to review several basic plot points.

For starters, we'll be recording the number of "wasted votes." Principally, this will mean reviewing a lot of votes in California and New York.

We'll also be looking at "narrow margins"—at the slender numbers of popular votes which gave Candidate Trump his wins in several decisive states.

Right up to the bitter end, the nation's geniuses, seers and savants were saying that Trump couldn't win those states. Despite the praise we heap on ourselves for our manifest tribal brilliance, our capacity for cluelessness seems to know few bounds.

As we review those narrow margins, we'll consider one more point. We'll ask you to think about a phenomenon we'll call "needless offense."

Our tribe is never more fulfilled than when we're insulting The Others. In a bit of payback, The Others teabagged us good last week. In the days before Thanksgiving, we'll consider the way our favorite pastime may have flipped this race.

Given the way our system works, there's a large number of "wasted votes" in the data at the Post's site. There are also several painfully narrow victory margins.

Last night, Rachel was giving needless offense again. Arguably, it's the one skill our corporate stars have numbnuttedly mastered.

(Good God! Also this? The Bentley "sex tape" again? Did we actually see and hear that? "The Nun" was busy last night!)

Presumably, the giving of needless offense just keeps bringing us back for more. "Watch this space," our own TV star never fails to remind Us.

Monday: Large numbers of "wasted votes"

26 comments:

  1. Watch this empty space. Haha.

    ReplyDelete
  2. How did Clinton lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote?

    Donald Trump owes his victory in the Electoral College to three states he won by the smallest number of votes: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So it's fair to say that the 2016 presidential election was decided by about 100,000 votes out of than 120 million ballots cast. According to the latest tallies, Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.1 percentage points (68,236 votes), Wisconsin by 0.9 points (27,257 votes), Michigan by 0.2 points (11,837 votes). If Clinton had won all three states, she would have won the Electoral College 278 to 260. She fell short in all three, of course, and that's why we are now getting accustomed to the reality of President-elect Donald J. Trump.
    We have been close to it for a long time, but finally tragedy comes to America.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why is it important that Hillary won the popular vote by large a margin? Everybody knows that the President isn't elected by popular vote. It's must be annoying and frustrating to her and her supporters, but the system we have in what it is.

    P.S. don't think the media downplayed this story out of kindness to Trump. The media are giving daily front page coverage to Democratic spin regarding every step Trump takes or doesn't take.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump's surrogates and flunkies are claiming he has a "mandate." Trump losing the popular vote means that he doesn't.

      http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/13/donald-trump-campaign-says-it-has-a-mandate/

      Delete
    2. It is a wasted effort to try to explain anything to Dave.

      Delete
    3. I wonder how much a "mandate" actually affects policy, though. So far, Trump's loss of the popular vote hasn't prevented him from choosing controversial conservatives for top positions. Going back, I don't recall President Obama making decisions based on his margin of victory.

      Delete
  4. I guess no one will question Trump about the sources behind his many declarations that the election was rigged against him. Over and over he said this. Was he just making it up?
    Also still waiting for the inside story of the investigators he sent to Hawaii looking into a birth certificate matter, and the unbelievable things they were finding. Maybe the media could be looking into that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The reason it takes California so long to count the votes is that there is a considerable vote by mail which only has to be postmarked by 8 Nov (election day). Given a holiday on 11 Nov there could have been a non trivial number of ballots which didn't arrive until 14 Nov.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. “We've been following the count through a site at the Washington Post. As such, Trump's mandate currently stands at minus 1.3 million votes. That "victory margin" is expected to grow, although you can't learn much about this matter from our major news orgs.”

      I’m sure our major news orgs care not at all and have put their dumbest pimply-faced intern in charge of tracking the figures. Google popular vote tracker and Dave Leip’s site have Clinton up by 1.65m and Trump’s vote percentage has plummeted to 46.6% (well below Romney’s) since election night when most people last payed attention.

      Delete
  6. There are an estimated 3 million non-citizens who voted illegally.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This assertion is false.

      http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/nov/18/blog-posting/no-3-million-undocumented-immigrants-did-not-vote-/

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    2. Not substantiated yet. It could be as many as 6 million.

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    3. 6 million corporations voted illegally?
      Is there any law they won't break?

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    4. Dave the Guitar PlayerNovember 29, 2016 at 12:55 PM

      This is a great example of the "facts-don't-matter" world we are now living in. You can state that 3 million (6 million?) illegal aliens voted in the last election without a shred of evidence and expect to be taken seriously. Personally, I think about 45 million invisible visitors from Mars voted for Trump.

      Delete
  7. Is it needless offense to call Californians slackers and surfers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, if you don't have a sense of humor.

      Delete
  8. Hi everyone, I'm so excited.
    My ex-boyfriend is back after a breakup,I’m extremely happy that will are living together again.
    My name is Mary Wilkie from England.
    My boyfriend of a 4yr just broke up with me and am 30 weeks pregnant.I have cried my self to sleep most of the nights and don’t seem to concentrate during lectures sometimes I stay awake almost all night thinking about him and start to cry all over again.Because of this I end up not having energy for my next day’s classes ,my attendance has dropped and am always in uni and on time.Generally he is a very nice guy ,he ended it because he said we were arguing a lot and not getting along.He is right we’ve been arguing during the pregnancy a lot .After the break up I kept ringing him and telling him I will change.I am in love with this guy and he is the best guy I have ever been with.I’m still hurt and in disbelief when he said he didn’t have any romantic feelings towards me anymore that hurt me faster than a lethal syringe.He texts me now and then mainly to check up on how am doing with the pregnancy,he is supportive with it but it’s not fair on me, him texting me as I just want to grieve the pain and not have any stress due to the pregnancy.i was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Dr Unity can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a spell for me. 28 hours later, my bf came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my bf are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Unity. If you have any problem contact Dr.Unity now and i guarantee you that he will help you.Email him at:( Unityspelltemple@gmail.com ),you can also call him or add him on Whats-app: ( +2348071622464 ),His website: http://unityspelltemple.yolasite.com .

    ReplyDelete
  9. Excited my life is back My husband and I have been together for almost 11 years in October. The way we met wasn’t the best way since we both had relationships. We ended our relationships to be together (or so I thought we BOTH did). As soon as I ended up pregnant with our first baby, I find out he was cheating with his EX! My world went upside down. It was very hard for me since I was pregnant and hurt. Over the years I just kept forgiving him over and over again of not only multiple affairs, but of his accusations of me being unfaithful and disrespecting me. We now have 3 kids and I just completely felt neglected and felt low of myself. I had my own affair… It has not been easy for BOTH of us to overcome. Somehow over the last few weeks we have been working together to move on. We are now moving out of state. I love my husband and I am positive he loves me. I am going to try and show him this approach. Somehow we were already doing it! We have a better communication than we’ve had in years! We are learning how to speak calmly out feelings and concerns. It hasn’t been peachy, but I can see that we both are starting to respect eachother. We care for each other’s feelings. We have US a main priority. We aren’t taking counseling, but somehow we see that little by little we seem more comfortable with eachother. Sometimes we may notice how good it is going and may step back, but helping eachother out by holding and saying it’s ok to be happy again. I love my family. and my husband and i need to keep my marriage save with him from other women so i have to seek for a love spell to keep our marriage stronger so i contacted Dr happy who help me to keep my marriage save and secure from other women am very happy today coz my husband love me more and more like ever before, we are living as one big family again bless Dr happy for what he did to me and my husband if you need help contact him too he is real and 100% guarantee ok so email him at : happylovespell2@gmail.com call +2348133873774 about his service and web site: http://happyspelltemple.webs.com/

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    ReplyDelete
  10. Imagine if the situation were reversed and HRC had won the Presidency after losing the popular vote? I'd say just bout everyone would know about it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. My husband is back and am so Excited My life became devastated when my husband sent me packing, after 8 years that we have been together. I was lost and helpless after trying so many ways to make my husband take me back. One day at work, i was absent minded not knowing that my boss was calling me, so he sat and asked me what its was all about i told him and he smiled and said that it was not a problem. I never understand what he meant by it wasn't a problem getting my husband back, he said he used a spell to get his wife back when she left him for another man and now they are together till date and at first i was shocked hearing such thing from my boss. He gave me an email address of the great spell caster who helped him get his wife back, i never believed this would work but i had no choice that to get in contact with the spell caster which i did, and he requested for my information and that of my husband to enable him cast the spell and i sent him the details, but after two days, my mom called me that my husband came pleading that he wants me back, i never believed it because it was just like a dream and i had to rush down to my mothers place and to my greatest surprise, my husband was kneeling before me pleading for forgiveness that he wants me and the kid back home, then i gave Happy a call regarding sudden change of my husband and he made it clear to me that my husband will love me till the end of the world, that he will never leave my sight. Now me and my husband is back together again and has started doing pleasant things he hasn't done before, he makes me happy and do what he is suppose to do as a man without nagging. Please if you need help of any kind, kindly contact Happy for help and you can reach him via email: happylovespell2@gmail.com call +2348133873774 about his service and web site: http://happyspelltemple.webs.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi everyone, I'm so excited.
      My ex-boyfriend is back after a breakup,I’m extremely happy that will are living together again.
      My name is Mary Wilkie from England.
      My boyfriend of a 4yr just broke up with me and am 30 weeks pregnant.I have cried my self to sleep most of the nights and don’t seem to concentrate during lectures sometimes I stay awake almost all night thinking about him and start to cry all over again.Because of this I end up not having energy for my next day’s classes ,my attendance has dropped and am always in uni and on time.Generally he is a very nice guy ,he ended it because he said we were arguing a lot and not getting along.He is right we’ve been arguing during the pregnancy a lot .After the break up I kept ringing him and telling him I will change.I am in love with this guy and he is the best guy I have ever been with.I’m still hurt and in disbelief when he said he didn’t have any romantic feelings towards me anymore that hurt me faster than a lethal syringe.He texts me now and then mainly to check up on how am doing with the pregnancy,he is supportive with it but it’s not fair on me, him texting me as I just want to grieve the pain and not have any stress due to the pregnancy.i was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Dr Unity can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a spell for me. 28 hours later, my bf came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my bf are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Unity. If you have any problem contact Dr.Unity now and i guarantee you that he will help you.Email him at:( Unityspelltemple@gmail.com ),you can also call him or add him on Whats-app: ( +2348071622464 ),His website: http://unityspelltemple.yolasite.com .

      Delete
  12. Obviously Hillary should have called Dr. Unity for help with her white male voters.

    ReplyDelete
  13. My husband and I have been together for almost 7 years, married for almost 4 years. We have a son that just turned 4. We got together and married young, I am 33 and he is 40. Over the years we have had many issues, including infidelity, a 6 month separation, and he said to me he wanted to get a divorce many times. I don’t necessarily have an issue getting over the past, it is his continued present behavior that keeps me wondering if he will ever change, ever mature, or be the husband and father I need him to be. he filed for divorce August 2014, but i refused to sign the papers coz i love him so much. I allowed the case to be dismissed, maybe to see if he will ever change. I have so many doubts and I am not sure which way to turn. I can not invest 100% into this marriage because I was so afraid to be disappointed all over again. I am afraid he has be cheating on me, I love him, but there are definitely no romantic feelings toward him, the feelings that made me fall in love with him in the first place. I felt so comfortable with him in my life, he makes me laugh, he’s playful, caring and attentive, on the other hand he has an anger problem, is negative, can be immature most of the time, argues with me constantly, and I don’t trust him. coz he use to cheat on me, i love my husband so much and also i want to save my marriage from divorce. so i cry to a friend of my, who told me to warp my tears, that there is a solution to my problem. so she introduce to me Dr happy a real spell caster that help to fight, stop marriage divorce and relationship problem also get ex back. so i give him a try and with-in 2day my problem with my husband was solve and ok, me and my husband and family and happily living great all thank to Dr happy you can reach him on happylovespell2@gmail.com or still call and Whats-pp him on +2348133873774 about his service and web site: http://happyspelltemple.webs.com/ Thanks Sandra Katie from Usa California

    ReplyDelete
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