TUESDAY, JULY 21, 2020
Let's take a look at the record: Yesterday, the New York Times finally reported that daily deaths from the coronavirus are in fact on the rise nationwide.
On that basis, Slate also announced the change.
In fact, nationwide deaths have probably been on the rise since the start of the month, though the three- to four-day July 4 weekend created reporting anomalies that continued to skew 7-day averages right into last week.
Where do daily deaths currently stand? For the Washington Post's data, just click here. In a nutshell, the story is this:
For a couple of weeks in April, nationwide deaths were averaging over 2000 per day. Then, a fairly rapid decline began.
By the end of May, the average number of daily deaths had dropped to just over 900. The average continued to drop, bottoming out right around 540 before the July 4 weekend.
With yesterday's data, the 7-day rolling average is back up to 763.0 deaths per day nationwide. We're nowhere near where we were back in April, but the rise has been fairly substantial just in the past few weeks.
The July 4 weekend created reporting anomalies. By the look of things, artificially low numbers were recorded through July 6, with artificially high numbers recorded for several days thereafter. Those artificially inflated numbers continued to skew 7-day averages into the following week.
That statistical bump now lies in the past. The picture looks like this:
For the last week in June, the average number of daily deaths stood at 538.7 (June 24-June 30).
At present, the number stands at 763.0 (July 14-20). As such, we're looking at a substantial increase in daily deaths just in the past three weeks.
Luckily, two things work in our favor:
First, the commander will be holding a task force briefing later this afternoon. By that time, he will almost surely have figured this whole thing out.
The other saving grace is this—we have the world's lowest mortality rate! Based on a paper from Kayleigh and Birx, that's what the commander in chief continued to claim as he spoke with Chris Wallace on Sunday.
According to the genius Wallace, Johns Hopkins says that isn't correct. That was as far as Wallace took it. Viewers could choose who was right.
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"Luckily, two things work in our favor:
ReplyDeleteFirst, the commander will be holding a task force briefing later this afternoon. By that time, he will almost surely have figured this whole thing out.
The other saving grace is this—we have the world's lowest mortality rate! Based on a paper from Kayleigh and Birx, that's what the commander in chief continued to claim as he spoke with Chris Wallace on Sunday."
This, from the man who hates sarcasm when Anderson Cooper does it.
"Viewers could choose who was right."
ReplyDeleteIsn't this how it always works?
You choose your statistic based on your goals/purposes.
ReplyDeleteToday, the Surgeon General said:
“The biggest determinant of whether or not we can go back to school actually has little to do with the actual schools,” Adams said. “It is your background transmission rate.” Adams acknowledged that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released recommendations for reopening schools safely, but cautioned that “the most important thing is what we do outside of schools before we reopen to lower the transmission rate.”
If Somerby were actually interested in education, he might be concerned about transmission rate, but I have never heard him mention that here. I think his goal is to embarrass journalists, not talk about the virus, much less talk about the impact of the virus on education, or its impact on those beautiful, deserving black kids who are not being educated and thus will reduce our NAEP scores even more.
I think his goal is to embarrass journalists, not talk about the virus....
DeleteTDH has been at it for about a quarter of a century, single-mindedly, repetitively, obsessively. It's not like he hides his goal of talking about public discourse in general and journalistic practice in particular. And you're just now tumbling to this fact?
Better late than never, I guess.
"Better late than never, I guess."
DeleteDo you think there's a chance Somerby will someday realize corporate mouthpieces mouth the corporate line?
History says he's not going to stop writing about it.
DeleteHis archives show he hasn't started writing about it yet.
DeleteMy children aged 8 and 10 are white and I have been uncomfortable with these disparate scores for some time.
ReplyDeleteKeeping the schools closed might not help them advance but it might help them become more equal with their African-American counterparts.
I tell them they cannot do anything about their white skin but they can understand that because they live in it, they cannot be purely "not racist" in this society.
We all have to be willing to sacrifice, even things we might think are at an "expense" to our children, for the greater good.
“ We all have to be willing to sacrifice, even things we might think are at an "expense" to our children, for the greater good.”
ReplyDeleteFinally some better trolling!
Thank God we all know what Good Liberals prescribe for this malady: more mass riots and full economic shut-down.
ReplyDeleteHard to find trolling as slimy as this Anonymouse.
DeleteYou can say that in a response to Mao???? Are you serious?
DeleteYMMV?
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Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542
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