Daily deaths edge up again!

TUESDAY, JUNE 30, 2020

Reversing that long, strong decline:
Daily deaths edged up again a tiny tad yesterday.

(We're dealing in 7-day averages nationwide. We're using the Washington Post's data. We've adjusted for the way New Jersey changed its accounting procedures last week.)

From May right on through until last week, there had been a long, strong decline in daily deaths. As we showed you recently, the numbers were looking like this:
Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
May 25-May 31: 915.6
June 1-June 7: 803.4
June 8-June 14: 710.9
June 15-June 21: 585.9
Daily deaths were dropping fast, but the rolling average bottomed out last Thursday at 567.1 (June 19-June 25). At least in the immediate short run, this completed a process of long, rapid, steady decline.

The number has been inching back up since then. As of yesterday, it had moved back up to 583.3 (June 22-June 28).

So far, that isn't a giant increase. But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline.

The Roman Republic was felled by Okmok.
All in all, we may not be doing real great ourselves!

36 comments:

  1. Meh. If you look at the 7-day moving average, dear Bob, it's still going down.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
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  2. Here is how Somerby shows the average deaths:

    Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
    May 25-May 31: 915.6
    June 1-June 7: 803.4
    June 8-June 14: 710.9
    June 15-June 21: 585.9

    Then he talks about the two most recent weeks with deaths edging up. That is cooking the books. He shows the data that proves his contention that there had been a decline in his table, but not the two that contradict it.

    If you are presenting data in a table or graph, you show all of your data. You don't leave out the numbers that don't show the pattern you are claiming was occurring.

    It should look like this:

    Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
    May 25-May 31: 915.6
    June 1-June 7: 803.4
    June 8-June 14: 710.9
    June 15-June 21: 585.9
    June 22-June 28: 583.3

    Creating that artificial "week" out of June 19-25 is inappropriate. It is an example of what researchers are NOT supposed to do, massaging their presentation of their data to fit their conclusions.

    As much as Somerby likes to talk about critical thinking and cooking the books, he doesn't seem to understand how to present results professionally, in a manner that doesn't lead the reader to draw a desired conclusion. If there is a different conclusion to be drawn, an alternative interpretation, it is important that readers be able to see it so that it can be considered.

    Somerby doesn't know this, of course, because he never took a research methods or stats class that would have taught him this stuff.

    Then he says: "So far, that isn't a giant increase. But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline."

    How would you know whether that statement is true or not if you play around with the bin sizes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For all Somerby knows there may have been small up and down fluctuations in all of the weeks formed by selecting different dates. He has two choices: (1) show all days instead of grouping by weeeks, (2) graph the data continuously, not grouped, so you can see the bumps. He claims it has declined rapidly and continuously, but you don't know that. If he wants to claim there was a low point mid-week for one week, why not any of the others? And without another week of data, how do we know it is on its way up rather than simply fluctuating?

      Delete
    2. Somerby is a clown. Deaths lag new cases by a couple weeks. Deaths edged up? It went from 366 to 764.

      Delete
  3. “But for several months extending into last week, daily deaths had been on a steady, rapid decline.”

    Deaths are important, but so are hospitalizations, which are rising rapidly in several states. In some states, hospitals are near or at capacity.

    People who don’t die can still suffer permanent damage.

    Number of cases is also important. The continued high number is the reason the EU has barred travel from the US. People who have the virus can infect others.

    That is why death rate alone isn’t the only statistic worth noting. Nor is it the only way to decide if the US has been successful at containing the outbreak, although it has been the favored pro-Trump statistic lately.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the hospitals become full, more people (with and without the virus) will start dying because they don't have access to necessary medical treatments and the death rate will increase (not simply the average number of deaths).

      Delete
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  24. HOW I GOT MY EX HUSBAND BACK WITH THE HELP OF REAL AND EFFECTIVE SPELL FROM DR Aluya My name is jessica, I never thought I will smile again, My husband left me with two kids for one year, All effort to bring him back failed I thought I'm not going to see him again not until I met a lady called Jesse who told me about a spell caster called Dr Aluya , She gave me his email address and mobile number and I contacted him and he assured me that within 48hours my husband will come back to me, In less than 48hours my husband came back started begging for forgiveness saying it is the devils work, so I'm still surprise till now about this miracle,i couldn't conceive but as soon as the spell was cast,i became pregnant and gave birth to my third child,if you need any assistance from him you can contact him via:email:{ aluya.48hoursspelltemple @gmail.com } you can also text him on whatApp:  +2348110493039  You can also contact Him through his website:   https://draluya48hoursspelltemple.webs.com/

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  25. After 5 years in marriage with my husband with 2 kids, my husband started acting weird and going out with other ladies and showed me cold love, on several occasions he threatens to divorce me if I dare question him about his affair with other ladies, I was totally devastated and confused until a old friend of mine told me about a spell caster on the internet called DR ISIKOLO who help people with relationship and marriage problem by the powers of love spells, at first I doubted if such thing ever exists but decided to give it a try, when I contact him, he helped me cast a love spell and within 48 hours my husband came back to me and started apologizing, now he has stopped going out with other ladies and his with me for good and for real. Contact this great love spell caster for your relationship or marriage problem to be solved today via: isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com or directly WhatsApp +2348133261196 or his website: https://isikololovetemple.com

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  26. Thank you sir for your genuine spells. I'm Zara Matteo by name. This is really incredible, and I have never experienced anything like this in my life. Before i met you Sir, i have tried every probable means that i could to get my husband back, but i actually came to realize that nothing was working out for me, and that my husband had developed lot of hatred for me. I thought there was no hope to reunite with my ex husband. But when i read good reviews about how DR ISIKOLO help others, I decided to message him at: +1-725-240-4536. to give it a try and i did everything that he instructed me and i Trusted in him and followed his instructions just as he have guaranteed me in 48 hours, and that was exactly when my ex called me. Sir We are more contented now than ever. Everything looks perfect and so natural! Thank you so much Sir for your authentic and indisputable spells. here again his Email: isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com You can also Whatsapp him on +1-725-240-4536. His direct page: https://isikololovetemple.com

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  27. I'm so excited my broken Marriage has been restored. My ex husband is back after he left me and our 2kids for another woman. I was so happy to meet Dr. OKu how he helps many people to bring their Lover back so i contact him to help me too. husbandThat was how Dr. Oku helped me to bring my  back.. A big thank you to Dr. Oku because I never thought my ex Husband will be back to me so quickly with your spell. You are the best and world greatest. If you are here and you need your Ex Let you in over back or your husband moved to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact:Email him at: okutemple@gmail.com You can also Call/WhatsApp:+2348163425519

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  28. I will forever be indebted to the great DOCTOR ISIKOLO for fixing my broken marriage. I am Maria Artur After my husband left me for his mistress for 3 months. I never believed in spells until my friend introduced me to him. At first, I was skeptical about him because I heard a lots about false spell casters but I put my doubts behind me for i was desperate to get my husband back and I did according to what he instructed me to do. Now my husband is back just within 48 hours of contacting him. I'm living happily with my husband again after 6 months of divorce and I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in cures to any sickness, protection spells, lottery spells, elevation spells E.T.C. Get connected with DOCTOR ISIKOLO now, his email is isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com You can also Whatsapp him on +1(725)240-4536

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