THE ROLE OF MISTAKEN BELIEF: Leonhardt and Douthat attempt to do deaths!

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2020

Where do they find these guys?: How many people will die of the virus over the next four months?

We can't exactly tell you! That said, here's a fact-check of something Joe Biden said at last night's town hall forum. It comes from the Washington Post's Fact-Checker site:

“We should expect another 215,000 dead by January. But if we wore a mask, we’d save 100,000 of those lives, doing nothing but that.”

These numbers are on target. Deaths from the novel coronavirus are near 200,000 in the United States, and one influential group of researchers predicts the total will reach 415,000 by 2021.

The projection comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The IHME model currently forecasts 415,090 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1, 2021.

As we noted yesterday, some modelers project a substantially higher daily/weekly death rate over the next few months.  

In its "most likely" scenario, the IHME has projected an additional 215,000 deaths in the next (roughly) four months. That works out to (roughly) 54,000 deaths per month—close to 2000 deaths per day.

(According to the Washington Post's numbers, we averaged 814.9 deaths per day over the past seven days.)

This projection by the IHME received a blip of coverage when it appeared last week. And, of course, it's just a projection. It could turn out to be wrong.

(More from the Post's fact-check: "Assuming public health mandates were relaxed, the IHME model predicts twice as many deaths before the end of the year: 400,000, for a total of nearly 612,000." In that scenario, we'd be experiencing an average of more than 3000 deaths per day in the coming weeks and months.)

These grisly projections received a minor blip of coverage. That said, our major journalists tend to steer away from reports involving numbers.

For Talking Barbie, math was famously hard. For our most "highly-educated" upper-end journalists, statistics seem to be even harder.

What follows will constitute a highly significant lesson in anthropology—in the actual capabilities of our actual species. Keeping that framework in mind, let's consider what happened when two "highly-educated," upper-end journalists tried to evaluate the coronavirus stewardship of one Donald J. Trump.

David Leonhardt took the first crack at this important topic. He did so in an on-line post, "America's Death Gap," which appeared in the New York Times back on September 1.

By way of background, Leonhardt graduated from Yale in 1994. (He'd prepped at Horace Mann.) During his rise at the New York Times, he's been branded as one of the smart ones.

Now he was trying to evaluate how good a job this country, and especially its president, have done in fighting the virus. He started with an utterly silly framework:

LEONHARDT (9/1/20): America's Death Gap

Here’s a jarring thought experiment: If the United States had done merely an average job of fighting the coronavirus—if the U.S. accounted for the same share of virus deaths as it did global population—how many fewer Americans would have died?

The answer: about 145,000.

That’s a large majority of the country’s 183,000 confirmed coronavirus-related deaths.

No other country looks as bad by this measure. The U.S. accounts for 4 percent of the world’s population, and for 22 percent of confirmed Covid-19 deaths....

That logical framework made little sense. Beyond that, when Leonhardt tried to apply the statistical measure he had chosen, he bungled the assignment. 

"No other country looks as bad by this measure?" We're sorry, but that wasn't true on September 1. As a matter of fact, it still isn't true today!  But let's move through this groaner quickly, so we can move on to Ross Douthat's attempt to analyze this same question:

As he started, Leonhardt made a silly assumption. He assumed that, if the U.S. had done an average job confronting the virus, our deaths to date would match our share of the world's population.

That assumption makes little sense. As Leonhardt later mentioned in passing, the virus arrived in certain nations much earlier than in others. 

Due to patterns of international travel, it moved with relative speed from China into western Europe and into the United States. It arrived much later in other less developed nations. 

In some of the world's less traveled realms, the virus has barely arrived at all.

For that reason, the countries to which the virus traveled first have had more time to pile up a gruesome number of total deaths. This doesn't necessarily mean that they've handled the virus more poorly than anyone else. It simply means that the virus has been active within their boundaries for a longer period.

As of September 1, the United States did have 4 percent of the world's population and 22 percent of the deaths. In part, that reflects the ridiculous way Donald J. Trump (and politically affiliated governors) have chosen, and continue to choose, to react to the virus. 

In part, though, it simply reflects the fact that the virus arrived here early on, from China and Europe both.

On September 1, our share of deaths did outstrip our share of the world's population, by more than a 5-to-1 ratio. But this was also true of other "early arrival" nations, and it remains so today.

"No other country looks as bad" by that measure? At present, Belgium and Spain look worse than we do by this measure (assuming the measure is properly applied) as does the United Kingdom, if only by a tad at this point.  

That is to say, Spain's share of world deaths outstrips its share of world population by a higher ratio than ours. We have a lot more people than Spain does, but their ratio of share of deaths to share of population  is still higher than ours. 

On September 1, that was still true of other major European nations (of Italy, for example). As our nation's high daily death rate continues, we keep passing other nations with respect to this measure. 

That said, ten other nations still outstrip us on this score. That includes Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and Brazil, where runaway daily/weekly death rates have overtaken the late arrival of the virus on their shores.

"No other country looks as bad?" That wasn't true then and it isn't true now. If Leonhardt's measure is correctly applied, we aren't the worst in the world even now! 

Leonhardt managed to bungle this point because he made a basic blunder in the way he proceeded with his analysis. Anyone except Talking Barbie and her clueless consort, Ken, should be able to see what it was. (Don't be misled by his graphic!)

Leonhardt comes to us straight outta Harvard. He's been branded as one of the smart one at the New York Times, a newspaper which brands itself as the nation's smartest.

It's astounding to think that a journalist with that profile could be so innocent of basic analytical skill. But this is an anthropological study—a study of the capabilities of our floundering species as it really exists, not as it's long been described.

With that framework established again, let's move on to the analysis offered by Ross Douthat.

We'll guess that Douthat is a good, decent person. Almost surely, Leonhardt is too. But that isn't the question at hand, and his profile looks like this:

Douthat graduated from Harvard in 2002. (He'd prepped at Hamden Hall Country Day.) In April 2009, he became a regular New York Times columnist—at the age of 29!

Douthat looked at Leonhardt's attack on our country's performance and he wasn't buying. In a column which appeared in print on September 6, he cited and linked to "America's Death Trap," then offered this:

"I’m not fully convinced by my colleague’s approach."

He proceeded to offer a typical upper-end press corps attempt at analysis.  Where in the world—where on earth!—does the New York Times find these guys?

The answer, of course, is "at Harvard and Yale." But let's not get bogged down there!

How well had Commander Trump performed against the virus as compared to the rest of the world? Bizarrely, Douthat compared our country's performance in fighting the virus to the performance of such "peer nations" as Colombia and  Peru, but not to that of Canada. 

He hopscotched all over the countryside in his choice of statistics, alternating between Total Deaths to Date and Current Daily or Weekly Deaths. Sometimes he switched from deaths to the highly amorphous "cases" and "infection rate" as his unit of measure.

Also, there was a puzzling side trip to "rate of mask usage," a statistic which—or so Douthat said—puts us "right in the middle of the pack" when compared with our "peer nations."

Did we mention the fact that Douthat's collection of "peer nations" includes Colombia, Mexico and Peru, while Canada never gets mentioned? At any rate, out of this puzzling melange came an assessment of Donald J. Trump which differed from that of his Yale-powered colleague:

The commander hasn't achieved greatness is his handling of the virus, Douthat was willing to say. But it seems that he has pretty much turned in an average performance:

DOUTHAT (9/6/20): [T]he peer-country evidence suggests that to take the pre-emptive, creative and draconian steps that might have actually suppressed the virus, and in the process saved that hundred thousand or more extra lives, would have probably required presidential greatness, not merely replacement-level competence. We can say without a doubt that Trump whiffed when this call for greatness came. But distinguishing between Trump’s incompetence and what an average president might have managed is harder, so long as so many peer-country death tolls look like ours.

So assessed Harvard's Douthat—to which we offer this:

Really? Is it really true that "so many peer-country death tolls look like ours?" 

Below, you see some current numbers for the nations we would regard as the most obvious peer nations. Who can look at these numbers and think that our president, and our nation as a whole, have done an average job?

Deaths from Covid-19, September 10-16:

United States: 6,258

United Kingdom: 78

Germany: 30

Canada: 35

Japan: 68

South Korea: 23

Taiwan: 0 

Australia: 46

European Union: 1,325

Those numbers haven't been adjusted for population. But would you say that those other "death tolls" look anything like our? Does our number, in any way, signal anything resembling average performance? 

(Key point: The population of the E.U. is one-third larger than ours.)

Those numbers have changed since Douthat's column appeared on September 6. If anything, our relative standing was somewhat more horrible at that time. (Several nations have been experiencing an uptick in daily deaths.)

Those numbers show where matters stand after 6-8 months of fighting the virus. Roughly speaking, they show where our nation's efforts have left us as compared to a range of peer nations. 

In that chart, we're looking at nations with roughly comparable economies and infrastructures. They're countries where the virus came ashore at roughly the same time.

In the roughly eight months since the virus arrived, does it look like we've done an average job combating it? On what planet would a skilled journalist reach such a conclusion, with some editor cheering him on?

Harvard and Yale and the New York Times stand behind the journalists we've cited. In the ways our culture reaches such judgments, these journalists are "highly educated." They stand at the top of the pile.

The work they did in assessing this question was bungled all the way down. We regard this as an anthropology lesson, and we ask you to keep that in mind. 

Alas! A nation whose ranking journalists display skill levels like these will be a nation routinely driven by false and mistaken belief.  We'll extend our point this afternoon with one more look at George Stephanopoulos, who we've actually met and chatted with on at least one occasion.

He's a high ranking journalist too. He  graduated from Columbia in 1982, ranking number 2 in his class.

This week, Stephanopoulos also whiffed on the data! "Statistics can be boring and hard," anthropologists have frequently said.

This afternoon:  In a bit more detail, the basic rejoinder not offered


32 comments:

  1. "In its "most likely" scenario, the IHME has projected an additional 215,000 deaths in the next (roughly) four months."

    Ah, zombie scientists. Nice.

    Anywho, how can you listen to all this meaningless drivel, dear Bob? "Performance"? What "performance"?

    None of this has anything to do with anyone's "performance", except for (likely) criminal cases of sending infected people to nursing homes.

    It's about genetics, about internal and external patterns of migration, population density, the overall health and median age of the population, perhaps it's about mandatory BCG vaccinations, and perhaps the number of smokers (apparently smoking helps), and who knows what else.

    But of course for your goebbelsian cult it's all about Orange Man Bad, and nothing else.

    Fine, dear Bob; at this point no one cares.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mao congrats on being first yet again.

      A testament to a life well lived!

      Delete
    2. More like Trumps testicles bouncing off his chin

      Delete
    3. can i watch

      Delete
    4. "But of course for your goebbelsian cult it's all about Orange Man Bad, and nothing else."

      Here you go, snowflake.

      https://images.app.goo.gl/j1YVMqLfZ3iNzWUw5

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    6. The Republican-led United States will be 4th in the world in deaths per million in a matter of weeks.

      Right behind Belgium, Peru and San Marino.

      It's about genetics.

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  2. "For Talking Barbie, math was famously hard. For our most "highly-educated" upper-end journalists, statistics seem to be even harder."

    Somerby likes to repeat this reference to the quickly recalled Talking Barbie, because it makes him all warm and fuzzy inside to know he was not born a girl.

    Meanwhile, he has no standing whatsoever to criticize journalists from elite schools for their stats understanding when he himself has no better training with his philosophy degree from Harvard. He has been making stats errors here, left and right, and is only unaware of it because he is too stupid to read his comments.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rather than a reference to a gender insensitive product, perhaps TDH was implying that our "best and brightest" are akin to non-intelligent plastic toys.

      But I don't know. As TDH often says, "Anything is possible!"

      Delete
    2. The reason Talking Barbie was recalled was because she encouraged girls to consider themselves non-intelligent.

      Delete
  3. "For that reason, the countries to which the virus traveled first have had more time to pile up a gruesome number of total deaths."

    Actually, if those nations have implemented effective virus control measures, they would no longer have been piling up deaths, as Somerby claims.

    Leonhardt adopted a hypothetical death rate to use as a comparison across countries. You can claim that it is not realistic, but the point is that it is just an arbitrary standard that permits comparison across countries.

    Does Somerby really think it makes sense to compare the US with less traveled nations, like those in Africa? The most comparable countries are those who also have had a great deal of exposure due to travel. We do not do well against those countries at all. Somerby's criticism is specious.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Somerby apparently doesn't recognize that we are increasingly more like Mexico than we are like Canada.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "This week, Stephanopoulos also whiffed on the data!"

    Yesterday, Somerby said that Stephanopoulos did a decent job.

    Maybe he did an average job?

    ReplyDelete
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  16. I am so happy to be writing this article in here, i am here to explore blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS . I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope completely because i was rejected even by my closest friends. i searched online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw testimony about Dr Okiti online on how he cured so many persons from Herpes Disease so i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure is ready and he sent it to me via UPS DELIVERY SERVICES and it got to me after 4 days! i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured! it's really like a dream but i'm so happy! that's the reason i decided to also add more comments about him so that more people can be saved just like me! and if you need his help, contact him via email drokitiherbalhome100@gmail.com or WhatsApp +234 705 067 0365

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  17. My husband and I have been married for over 10 years. We met when I was 18 and he was 21. We’ve been through a lot emotionally together. There were several HUGE fights and painful situations in our marriage, but we always seemed to come out stronger on the other side. Out of the blue my husband just sprung the divorce talk on me, I was totally depressed until I found Dr.Todd website online and I ordered for a Love spell. You won’t believe my husband called me at the exact time this spell caster finished his spell work in 48hrs. I was totally amazed! He is wonderful and his spells work so fast. His Email: manifestspellcast@ gmail. com manifestspellcast.wordpress.com
    WhatsApp:+1 604 901 9747

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  18. POWERFUL LOVE SPELLS AND LOST LOVE SPELLS TO BRING BACK LOST LOVER +2348118829899 USA, UK, FRANCE, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, NETHERLANDS, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, IRELAND.

    I've gotten back with my ex boyfriend with the help of Dr.Great the best spell caster online and i highly recommends Dr.Great to anyone in need of help!.. I want to testify of how i got back my boyfriend after he breakup with me, we have been together for 3 years, recently i found out my boyfriend was having an affair with another Girl, when i confronted him, it led to quarrels and he finally broke up with me, i tried all i could to get him back but all to no avail until i saw a post in a relationship forum about a spell caster who helps people get back their lost love through Love spell, at first i doubted it but decided to give it a try, when i contacted this spell caster via his email, and he told me what to do and i did it, Then he did a Love spell for me. 28 hours later, my boyfriend really called me and told me that he miss me so much, So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day, with lots of love and joy, and he apologized for his mistake, and for the pain he caused me. Then from that day, our relationship was now stronger than how it were before, All thanks to DR.GREAT. he is so powerful and i decided to share my story on the Internet that Dr.Great real and powerful spell caster who i will always pray to live long to help his children in the time of trouble, if you are here and you need your Ex back or your husband moved to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact: Email him at: infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com, you can also call him or add him on WhatsApp: +2348118829899 check out his  blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com you can also visit my blog at http://donnakelvin150.over-blog.com, THANKS TO DR.GREAT..  

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  19. POWERFUL LOVE SPELLS AND LOST LOVE SPELLS TO BRING BACK LOST LOVER +2348118829899 USA, UK, FRANCE, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, NETHERLANDS, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, IRELAND.

    I've gotten back with my ex boyfriend with the help of Dr.Great the best spell caster online and i highly recommends Dr.Great to anyone in need of help!.. I want to testify of how i got back my boyfriend after he breakup with me, we have been together for 3 years, recently i found out my boyfriend was having an affair with another Girl, when i confronted him, it led to quarrels and he finally broke up with me, i tried all i could to get him back but all to no avail until i saw a post in a relationship forum about a spell caster who helps people get back their lost love through Love spell, at first i doubted it but decided to give it a try, when i contacted this spell caster via his email, and he told me what to do and i did it, Then he did a Love spell for me. 28 hours later, my boyfriend really called me and told me that he miss me so much, So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day, with lots of love and joy, and he apologized for his mistake, and for the pain he caused me. Then from that day, our relationship was now stronger than how it were before, All thanks to DR.GREAT. he is so powerful and i decided to share my story on the Internet that Dr.Great real and powerful spell caster who i will always pray to live long to help his children in the time of trouble, if you are here and you need your Ex back or your husband moved to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact: Email him at: infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com, you can also call him or add him on WhatsApp: +2348118829899 check out his  blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com you can also visit my blog at http://donnakelvin150.over-blog.com, THANKS TO DR.GREAT..  

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  20. My husband and I have been married for over 10 years. We met when I was 18 and he was 21. We’ve been through a lot emotionally together. There were several HUGE fights and painful situations in our marriage, but we always seemed to come out stronger on the other side. Out of the blue my husband just sprung the divorce talk on me, I was totally depressed until I found Dr.Todd website online and I ordered for a Love spell. You won’t believe my husband called me at the exact time this spell caster finished his spell work in 48hrs. I was totally amazed! He is wonderful and his spells work so fast. His Email: manifestspellcast@ gmail. com manifestspellcast.wordpress.com

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  21. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
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