SIMPLY PUT, NOT UP TO THE TASK: NBC News, not up to the task!

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2020

Lester and Brian do deaths: Brian started last evening's report with a somewhat misleading statement. 

The report came near the end of his show. In fairness, his hair was perfect:

WILLIAMS (9/22/20): We have lost over 200,000 souls, and in that respect, America leads the world. 

With autumn now here, the fear is that a surge may be here shortly as well. A report tonight from NBC News correspondent Tom Costello.

With that, the handsome anchor played part of a report Costello had performed on NBC Nightly News that very night.

Costello was light-years out of his depth as he reported on the pandemic. Below, we'll show you what he said. For now, let's consider Brian's misleading if pleasing statement.

Is it true? Does America "lead the world" in total coronavirus deaths to date? 

It's only true if you forget to adjust for population! If you perform that stunningly basic task, nine other countries boast a worse death rate.  We'll omit tiny Andorra and tinier San Marino  and show you the ten most afflicted:

Total deaths from coronavirus to date, per million population:

Peru: 955

Belgium: 858

Spain: 661

Bolivia: 657

Brazil: 647

Chile: 643

Ecuador: 628

United States: 620

United Kingdom: 615

Italy: 591

We've finally moved past the United Kingdom, though only by a hair. That said, once you adjust for population, we aren't even close to "leading the world" in this undesirable measure.

(When it comes to Current Daily Deaths, we're the worst, by several light-years, among a long list of peer nations.)

Should Brian have adjusted for population? In this, as in all other things, it's pretty much as you like it! 

Telling the story the way he did is pleasing to the tribe. It says that we're the worst in the world, all thanks to Commander Trump.

Almost surely, that's part of the reason why you hear the story told that way, full stop, on our own tribal channels. The other reason is this:

The people you see on these corporate channels may not be especially sharp or overwhelmingly honest. To the extent that they may have been sharp at one point, their aggressive climbs and their large successes have drained The Sharp right out of them.

Was Lester ever sharp in the relevant way? We have no idea! 

Below, you see the way the report in question began on NBC Nightly News. We'd say the complete total cluelessness was quite impressive this night:

HOLT (9/22/20): Tonight, troubling new signs about the pandemic. With U.S. deaths surpassing 200,000, a new analysis from the University of Washington revised its projection slightly downward to a still staggering 378,000 by year's end, with signs that a fall surge may be underway. 

Here's Tom Costello.

COSTELLO: On this first fall evening, 17 states plus Puerto Rico report a disturbing increase in coronavirus cases over the past two weeks.

25% or more in Wyoming, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Utah, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Oklahoma and New Jersey.

Nationwide, 421 deaths yesterday alone.

DR. JOHN TORRES, NBC MEDICAL EXPERT: We don't know if this is a bump because of Labor Day or if this is a trend moving into the fall. And if it is a trend moving into the fall, then the concern there is that numbers could be even higher.

(To watch Lester's full report, click here, move ahead to minute 7.)

Costello's presentation continued from there. Already, the cluelessness was so extensive that we think it's highly instructive.

Let's start with what Lester said. According to Lester, the University of Washington is now projecting that we will have suffered a total of 378,000 deaths from coronavirus by the end of the year.

Lester was citing the current projection from UW's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). As we recently noted, the IHME's extremely gloomy new projections received a blip of news coverage something like ten days back.

Last night, Lester didn't seem to realize how gloomy that projection actually is. For now, we'll stick a pin in that point as we move forward to Costello's "notice-nothing" report.

By conventional norms, Costello isn't as handsome as Brian. That's why one is cast as the handsome anchor while the other is out in the field.

Beyond that, Costello didn't seem to have a clue about the numbers he was citing. If you watch the tape of this report, he seemed to suggest that "421 deaths yesterday alone" might be a "disturbing" figure in and of itself.

In fact, Costello was citing the number of deaths which were recorded on Monday of this week. And, because Mondays follow our weekends, there is always a reduced amount of reporting of deaths on those particular days.

(Anyone who's ever examined the daily data would surely have noticed this fact.)

This Monday was no exception. Within the context of our national pandemic, is 421 deaths a disturbing number? 

Actually, as averages go, that's a good day for us! Puzzle it out this way: 

The recording of significant numbers of deaths from the virus has been underway for roughly six months, dating back into the middle of March. The very first recorded death occurred on February 29.

Think of the numbers this way:

If we had suffered 421 deaths every day over a six-month period (180 days), we'd be looking at a total of 75,870 deaths. That's less than 200,000!

If we imagine a seven-month period, dating back to before the first recorded death, our total would be 88,410 deaths at this point

That would take us back before the first reported death—and our total numbers of deaths would be less than half what it actually is.

In short, 421 deaths is a good day in this nation! Unless you've never examined the data, it isn't a sign of a worrying possible increase in deaths, as Costello seemed to suggest. 

Lester was possibly resting his eyes as Costello made his odd presentation. Five hours later, Brian aired the report as if it was golden.

Now, let's return to what Lester said: 

Quite correctly, Lester said the IHME's new projection was "staggering," a source of major concern. But he only cited the projected total number of deaths by the end of the year. 

He didn't seem to realize what that projection, if accurate, means about the coming fall season's number of daily deaths. (Just yesterday, we noted the way we've seen cable anchors sleepwalking in this manner.) 

According to Lester, the IHME is predicting an additional 178,000 deaths between now and the end of the year. As of yesterday, exactly one hundred days remained in the year. 

That means that the IHME is predicting an average of 1780 deaths per day over the nest three months! Since we're nowhere near that daily average at present, that means that we'll be averaging 2000 deaths per day, or more, by the time our autumn increase kicks in.

That would match the daily death toll in the worst few weeks of this nation's pandemic, back in mid-April. The difference would be this:

According to the IHME projection, that vastly increased level of deaths will obtain over a much longer period.

We'll have to guess that Lester hadn't given any of this a single thought. As we look ahead to several thousand deaths a day (according to the projection he chose to air), his correspondent actually seemed to think that 421 deaths in a single day was an alarming figure.

Dr. John Torres was then brought, via videotape, on to complete the inanity. Seeming to refer to the 421 deaths, he seemed to say there's "concern" that the numbers could be even higher as we move into the fall!

(In fairness, his videotaped comment may have made perfect sense in its original context.)

Torres seemed to say that there's "concern" that the number of deaths could go even higher. As a matter of fact, there's more than concern. There's a projection that our daily deaths will be five times that high this fall!

Did any of these NBC stars understand that fact? Let's review the carnage:

As the report began, Lester cited a projection according to which our daily death rate will be at or above 2000 deaths per day over a lengthy period. Did he, or anyone else at NBC News, have any idea of this fact?

Was Lester aware of this fact? How about Costello? He seemed to suggest that Monday's reported number—421 deaths—was a disturbing number in and of itself

Hours later, Brian aired the report without comment. Does he have any idea what the IHME has projected? If he does, he kept it to himself, while adding a thoroughly standard and yet misleading claim.

This report was an example of coloring by the numbers. It involved the most simple-minded possible presentation of a very disturbing projection.

A serious person would have told viewers what that projection actually entails if accurate. He or she would then have interviewed someone, asking if that projection makes sense and asking why the daily death rate has been projected to skyrocket to that extent.

What was this nation's 7-day average of daily deaths as Lester and Costello prepared this report? The Washington Post and the New York Times agree—in the previous seven days (September 15-21), the nation had averaged 770 deaths per day from the coronavirus.

Now, Holt was citing a projection according to which that daily average would likely triple by the time the autumn increase took hold. But neither Lester nor Tom nor anyone else seemed to have any sense of this fact. These are not impressive performers, but this is very much who they are.

Brian rebroadcast the shaky report, adding in the misleading claim that we "lead the world" in total deaths to date. That's a technically accurate, preferred tribal claim. You'll hear it constantly on our  channels, much less often on theirs.

In fairness, as Brian reaired this D-minus report, his hair and his wardrobe were perfect. But he was slacking his way though another evening, not unlike Lester before him.

At this site, we go way back with Brian. We recall his clownish campaign reports in 1999 and 2000, when he was serving NBC CEO Jack Welch and sliming one candidate well.

In June 1999, his gushing treatment of Candidate Bush-On-The-Tarmac remains a cable news unintentional comedy classic. Later, his attacks on Candidate Gore's disturbing clothes and their obvious meaning went on and on and on. 

Years later, he managed to get himself fired. Eventually, the gods brought him back.

In our tribe, we used to say that George W. Bush "lacked curiosity." The same is true of corporate stars like Lester and Brian, and even Costello and Torres.

Last evening, the gentlemen seemed to lack the first clue about what the IHME is projecting .That said, Brian had perfect wardrobe and hair, and that's one way product gets sold.

This is part of the way we've come to the place where Donald J. Trump may get re-elected and will almost surely replace the late Justice Ginsburg. Simply put, losers like us just haven't been up to the task.

Tomorrow: It would be hard to know much less, how-Trump-got-elected edition

Still coming: The commissar spoke


34 comments:

  1. Do we really care is we are THE worst in the world or only among the worst? Wouldn't it be better if we were among the best in the world, when it comes to deaths, adjusted by population or not?

    Somerby claims that we love to hear that we are the worst in the world. That isn't true for me and I doubt it is true for others I know, liberal friends and relatives. We are sad and depressed about the virus and everything else happening politically in our nation. We wanted our president to coordinate a response that would keep us and our neighbors safe.

    Somerby strikes me as a sick man, a soulless person who doesn't understand how people feel. Arguing about whether we are worst or only among the worst is ghoulish. No one is gloating about covid among those I know. We are locked indoors waiting out this tragedy, hoping we and our loved ones can stay safe and not catch this virus.

    Meanwhile Somerby argues about projections and death rates, as if these were not actual people dying out there.

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  2. Somerby, like his fellow Republicans, thinks this is a game. The 200,000+ deaths of Americans means nothing to Republicans but opportunity to own the libs.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Brian rebroadcast the shaky report, adding in the misleading claim that we "lead the world" in total deaths to date. That's a technically accurate, preferred tribal claim. You'll hear it constantly on our channels, much less often on theirs."

    Technically accurate? Somerby wants to say it is inaccurate, but that would be untrue. Then he says Fox won't broadcast the claim. Why? Because it would reflect poorly on Dear Leader.

    So, cable news is blamed for airing a supposedly preferred report, but Fox is not blamed for refusing to air an unpreferred report (one that reflects badly on the president).

    I believe it is important for media to air reports that are critical of our government and leadership. That is what reporters exist to do -- to be a check and balance on the performance of our elected officials.

    But Somerby thinks that airing reports that are critical is wrong, supposedly because it makes liberals happy to hear them. But it is not wrong when Fox suppresses such reports.

    No need to wonder whose side Somerby is on. It should be obvious by now.

    And forget the daily snow job, in which Somerby tries to confuse us all with a barrage of statistics, while complaining that the press is incompetent in handling numbers, only to admit that the report was "technically accurate" (Somerby's term for accurate). His attempts to obfuscate and confuse is worse than any misleading stat a hapless reporter has presented, because Somerby is doing this to undermine our faith in news reporting, to support Trump's claim that the media is making him look bad with fake news. While Somerby claims that liberals are gloating over covid deaths because us liberals care more about owning Trump than about human deaths. And the right goes on holding maskless rallies and pretending that covid is just the flu and won't hurt anyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'While Somerby claims that liberals are gloating over covid deaths because us liberals care more about owning Trump than about human deaths."

      This is just more Right-wing confessions masquerading as accusations.

      Remember, in 2009 they pretended the richest country in the history of mankind was broke, so Obama couldn't try to help the citizens, while the citizens suffered through the worst economic crisis in 7 decades.

      Right-wing projection makes IMAX look like a Viewfinder.

      Delete
  4. “Dr. John Torres was then brought, via videotape, on to complete the inanity. Seeming to refer to the 421 deaths, he seemed to say there's "concern" that the numbers could be even higher as we move into the fall!”

    Somerby, the malevolent circus clown.

    Torres was clearly referring to the spike in cases.

    “17 states plus Puerto Rico report a disturbing increase in coronavirus cases over the past two weeks.
    25% or more in Wyoming, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Utah, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Oklahoma and New Jersey.”

    Right after Torres spoke, Costello talked about the rising number of cases in Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "That said, Brian had perfect wardrobe and hair, and that's one way product gets sold."

    Somerby mentions Brian's perfect hair so often that I wonder whether he is balding and envious. What a ridiculous thing to criticize a TV personality for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Williams is also handsome, while Costello is not. According to Somerby.

      We need to know what he thinks of Lester Holt’s looks.

      Delete
    2. A new theory of why Somerby attacks so many female reporters! They are prettier than he is.

      Delete
  6. "and will almost surely replace the late Justice Ginsburg. Simply put, losers like us just haven't been up to the task."

    Now it is our fault because Ginsburg died? And our fault that conservatives in the senate have no ethics? Also our fault that in 2018 there weren't enough contested senate seats to flip the senate?

    What task is it that we aren't up to? Somerby never actually says. It is another of his vague complaints that make liberals sound like pigs.

    I wish I knew Somerby personally so that I could shun him at parties.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ginsburg, who Somerby tells us was not a bad person, was a liberal, thus, she was a loser. Her refusal to retire proved this.

      Liberals who praise Ginsburg’s life and career are losers because they are not loudly trumpeting the fact that Ginsburg was a loser who refused to retire.

      According to Somerby’s favorite blogger Kevin Drum, liberals are losers because they don’t control the Senate.

      The way to win, in his view, is for liberals to ditch their pro-choice, pro-gun-control, pro-immigration (and who knows what other) principles in order to gain the votes of the white working class in red states.

      In other words, libs, just give up your principles and become conservatives.

      Here is his breathtakingly bad post:
      https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/09/no-democrats-are-not-eternally-doomed-in-the-senate/

      Delete
  7. “we aren't even close to "leading the world" in this undesirable measure.”

    Being 8th out of 215 countries actually does put us close to leading the world.

    And by Somerby’s standards of “peer nations”, we are third.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look at areas of similarly sized populations and density, the US actually owns the top ten, a dubious distinction as we are talking about actual deaths. These are real people that Republicans dismiss with smugness.

      Delete
    2. Yep, as I point out in my comment below, plotting deaths against density of population is crucial. But you could also consider density distribution: rural vs. urban population. The US is probably less concentrated than some other countries in that respect.

      Delete
  8. This is the same complaint that Somerby had yesterday, where Somerby said that the daily deaths were not matching the predictions of total deaths by a certain date.

    There are two problems with this complaint. First, Somerby doesn't seem to understand the difference between a prediction based on a model and actual recorded deaths. Predictions routinely vary from actual data because models do not account for all of the variables that influence the actual death rate. There are measurements of error that tell us how well a model did at predicting an outcome, but no one expects the kind of accuracy that Somerby seems to expect. Second, Somerby seems to think that the increase in deaths will be linear and he doesn't seem to understand geometric increases in deaths as a virus spreads within a population. If covid takes off within our population, deaths will increase rapidly, not at any constant rate that will produce a steady average, like the one he seems to expect with his comparison of rolling daily averages. He complains that we are not seeing high enough death figures to make the prediction likely, but he is not thinking about what it would mean if there were an explosion of cases and deaths closer to the prediction deadline date. There is no reason for deaths to be spread evenly within a time period when an increasing number of cases will enable the virus to spread more rapidly. It is difficult to predict that change in spread rate because it depends on human actions (more rallies and fewer mandates for masks and social distancing).

    Somerby gnaws at his discrepancy like a dog with a soup bone, narrowly fixated on it because he thinks it makes fools of reporters, but I think he is the one who is misunderstanding the reporting. People are being warned about impending deaths in order to change their behavior and help them understand the consequences of actions that make us all unsafe. Somerby only sees this as a stick to beat up the liberal media. But he is making himself look foolish in his eagerness to use statistics to further his agenda here.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If we were to further adjust for the density of population, which seems important, we'd move up a few notches up. Do we also need to plot our death toll vs time? That's important, too. Some countries, like Spain, Italy, Belgium experienced a rapid surge and responded, whereas the US has been blundering for months now. The calculus here is pretty complex. So, if we are going to nitpick and adjust for population, we should consider other variables as well.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Why are you overthinking and misconstruing this? No country has recorded as many deaths as the US. That's the point, and that's the story.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Somberly is correct in noting how high IMHE predictions are. That is why most experts doubt them. Remember, the IMHE predicted 0 deaths by June. They are a joke.

    ReplyDelete
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  14. Somerby never bothered to learn the truth about his country, and he never will if he keeps looking in places like the New York Times. Americans are tough, rugged individualists. They believe that only the strong should survive life’s God-given war of all against all. God wants the weak to fall by the wayside. It’s only in atheist/socialist dominated places like Europe/Canada, etc. that people believe that everyone deserves to live a long life. But God-fearing Americans know that’s not the Biblical way. God wants the weak to die like flies. Only arrogant atheists/socialist try to interfere with God’s will with their science and public health systems. Herman Cain knew that wearing a mask meant interfering with God’s will and that his faith would be rewarded in the afterlife.

    ReplyDelete
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    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

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  20. BLESSINGS BE ON TO YOU ALL. THANKS TO GOD FOR WHAT HE HAS DONE FOR ME FOR USING DOCTOR RAZOR TO HEAL ME OF MY HERPES INFECTION WITH HIS QUICK CURE FOR HERPES. I have read so much on Herpes Simplex virus. I hear of reaching clearance, I hear of no cure, I hear of recurrent lesions, poor immune system, poor diet, etc. I just do not know what to believe. I have visited many web pages that seem to sell you their version of removing or enforcing the immune system. Then I hear all the info on therapeutic vaccines as well as prophylactic vaccines and wonder how can that even help me. And I feel so worthless, Glad i came across Doctor Razor article on how to heal HSV forever. Words can describe how grateful I am. Endless Gratitude to doctor Razor for helping me get rid of my Herpes Virus Ever since being infected November 13, 2016 . Reach him on his clinic email drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com
    Whatsapp His cell phone on +2349065420442 , Website : https://herbalistrazorherb.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome

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  21. My name is James Rodriguez I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies, The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email dr Lucky and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try. I contacted this great dr and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 20,000 million Dollar. dr Lucky truly you are the best, with these great dr you can win millions of money through lottery. I am so very happy to meet these great man now, I will be forever be grateful to you dr. Email him for your own winning lottery numbers. drluckyhome@gmail.com whatsapp number +2348145810121  

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  22. I want to testify on how I got cured from Herpes. I have been living with this disease for the past 11 months, i have done all i can to cure this disease but all my efforts proved abortive until i met an old friend of mine who told me about a herbal doctor called Dr Oniha, she told me that Dr Oniha have cure for all kinds of diseases, though i never believed in it because my believe was that there is no cure for Herpes disease. But I decided to give it a try when I contacted Dr Oniha, he told me he has a cure for herpes that he cured with herbal medicine. I order for the herbal medicine, which Dr Oniha sent to me through a courier service which i make use of and now behold the herpes is gone and i now have my life back,if you are out there living with this disease i will like you to also contact Dr Oniha and get this disease cured out of your body. I am a living testimony of Dr Oniha herbal cure. Thanks once again Dr Oniha for you are God sent. contact Dr oniha through his contact information.
    Email:drjohnsonlovespellcaster997@gmail.com
    Whatsapp number: +2347057052206

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  23. We have different stories on how we have become a victim to so many impostor's who have claimed to be spell casters online. Taking advantage of our different heart desires. but today I have come to tell the world about a genuine spell caster whom I read so many testimonies about online. But at the very beginning I never believed that he was real after my several encounter with so many spell caster who could not help me with my issues, After watching a video of a true life testimony about this genuine spell caster on Instagram posted by an American blogger, how he helped a man from the United Kingdom to get a promotion and higher payment in a company where the man has been working for over 13 years without being promoted even when merited by him. I gave myself another chance because I still believe that even in life of fake lives, there are also genuine people. I remembered the word that say's "FEAR" has two definitions, which says, "Forget Everything And Run" OR "Face Everything And Rise. After a deep thought I contacted him via his email that was publish in the video (drozigidonhenz.spell.net@gmail.com) Whatsapp (+2349054750112). With his powerful spell he helped me to win the American Power ball lottery worth ($2,000,000 USD) after I did all that was required of me by his gods for the spell I was given the number and surprisingly it all happened as he promised. I am a millionaire today because I never gave up and it was a grace by God for me to find Dr Ozigidon. Just contact him and I promise you will never not have pain again in life. The only genuine and trusted spell caster I ever knew.

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