Covid statistics are very hard!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2020

What our corporate stars said: For the big major stars of our corporate press corps, Covid statistics are hard.

Consider what those major stars kept saying on cable last night. First, though, let's take a look at the nation's most recent Covid death statistics.

Below, you see the numbers from the Washington Post over the past four days. We're using the same title the Post uses on its highly informative graphic, which you can access here.

Spoiler alert! Please note the key word "reported:"

New deaths reported per day:
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506
Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Yikes! To an untrained observer, the numbers seem to be growing like Topsy.

It's true, of course, that the number of daily deaths has been growing in the past few months. But adding a tiny bit of complexity, here are the Post's numbers over the past seven days:

New deaths reported per day:
Thursday, November 26: 1,388
Friday, November 27: 1,410
Saturday, November 28: 1,240
Sunday, November 29: 831
Monday, November 30: 1,033
Tuesday, December 1: 2,506
Wednesday, December 2: 2,798

Now the pattern seems a bit more complex. The numbers were higher, then they were lower, then they were really high.

Meanwhile, the Post says the current 7-day "rolling average" is almost exactly 1,600 deaths per day from Covid. More precisely, over the past seven days, an average of 1,600.9 people have died from the virus per day.

Why have the numbers jumped around in the manner shown? As we've told you a million times—as we've even seen some journalists explain!—the "reporting" of Covid cases and Covid deaths tends to slow down on the weekends.

Those daily numbers are not supposed to be a record of the number of people who died each day. Instead, the numbers record the number of deaths which were officially recorded ("reported") that day.

For various bureaucratic reasons, the recording/reporting of Covid deaths slows on Sundays and Mondays, then jumps up starting on Tuesdays. For this reason, numbers on Sundays and Mondays tend to be artificially low. Numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays tend to be artificially high as various agencies report several days worth of cases or deaths.

In this instance, the existence of a lengthy Thanksgiving weekend almost surely exacerbated this regular weekly effect. Presumably, this helps explain why the numbers for the past few days were so appallingly high.

That said, our daily death rate has been getting higher. As of November 1, we were averaging 829 deaths per day, according to the Post's numbers. By December 1, the average had risen to 1,526.

How high will this daily death rate go? We can't tell you that. But here's what Rachel Maddow said on last evening's highly entertaining TV show. Maddow's numbers were slightly different from those in the Washington Post:

MADDOW (12/2/20): We thought it couldn't get any worse than it was in the spring, right? These are the numbers from the Covid Tracking Project.

This is today's daily death toll:

[Pregnant pause as the number 2,733 appears in bold on the screen]

2,733 Americans dead in a day. We are very quickly heading toward 3000 Americans dead in a day—toward the number of Americans who died on 9/11 dying every day.

Are we heading, very quickly, toward three thousands deaths every day? In a sense, yes we are! But we'll have to get to two thousand deaths per day first!

Will we ever reach the point where three thousand Americans are dying of Covid on a daily basis? Certainly, that's possible. At present, though, the 7-day average stands at 1,600 deaths per day. 

To our ear, Maddow seemed to be saying that 2,733 people died of Covid yesterday alone. ("2,733 Americans dead in a day," she mournfully said, after a pregnant pause.) But that isn't what those daily numbers  mean.

We're citing Maddow's presentation, but we saw people all over MSNBC making this apparent error last night. This morning, Mika started right in at 6:02 Eastern, explicitly saying that more than 2700 people had died of Covid yesterday.

The numbers these cable stars are citing do not record the number of people who died on a given day. Without any doubt, the daily average will continue to rise—but as far as we know, there is no record of how many people died on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, or on any particular day.

Does it matter that these stars keep making this harmless error? That they are still making this harmless error nine months into this mess?

Does it matter that they don't seem to be paying enough attention to give you an accurate account of where the numbers currently stand? Of what those numbers actually mean? Does any of this matter at all?

All in all, our political culture is so broken that virtually nothing matters any more. Misinformation is a very big business at this point, and that isn't going to change.

Right-wing orgs will keep cranking the lunacy out; many people will believe the various things they're told. Starting next week, we expect to start describing the various ways this same game is played Over Here, within our own pitiful tribe.

Maddow (and others) could have given you an accurate account of these rising numbers. Does it matter that they're too lazy, too indifferent to accuracy, too lacking in curiosity, to bother with something like that?

We'll only say this:

For decades now, our discourse has tended to run on narrative, not on a jealous search for accurate information. As a general matter, the children tell us the stories we like. The facts are much less important.

This has produced many bad outcomes over the years. Based on every indication, it will ever be thus.

Nothing will turn on the statements the various stars made last night and then again this morning. As a special treat, we decided to offer you the actual current facts.

We'll also offer  a special assurance! In many and varied ways, various things will, indeed, almost surely get worse. 


36 comments:

  1. "It's true, of course, that the number of daily deaths has been growing in the past few months. But adding a tiny bit of complexity,"

    Why do we need to add complexity when telling the public the status of covid?

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  2. "Does it matter that these stars keep making this harmless error?"

    Doesn't the word "harmless" in that sentence tend to suggest that the error doesn't matter?

    To some obsessive-compulsive types, all errors, no matter how tiny, matter hugely, even when there is no such thing as precision in this world. Is Somerby a member of that club?

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Does it matter that they don't seem to be paying enough attention to give you an accurate account of where the numbers currently stand? Of what those numbers actually mean? "

    Everyone on this fucking planet knows that more deaths are bad and fewer are good. What more does any human being have to know?

    Only ghouls like Somerby focus on deaths in order to batter a lesbian cable news host over an arcane detail that DOES NOT MATTER to any viewer watching her, except an asshole like Somerby.

    People want to know (1) can I go out drinking with my friends, (2) can quarantine include my significant other or do I have to go it alone, (3) when will this be OVER, (4) really, when will this be over, (5) will granny catch this, I hope she doesn't, (6) did my cat get out and can I go out and find her?

    None of this requires a rolling daily average to answer. Did I mention that Somerby is an asshole?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Does it matter that they're too lazy, too indifferent to accuracy, too lacking in curiosity, to bother with something like that?"

    Short answer: No.

    Long answer: The level of precision in reporting a measurement depends on the purposes for making that measurement in the first place, not solely the technical capacity for making the measurement (how people collect and report the data that is being summarized by that stat). All numbers are rough, rounded, and have considerable inaccuracy compared to an ideal. The measurement always (that's ALWAYS) differs from the entity being measured. Precision obviously matters when you are building a space shuttle. It doesn't matter when you are telling people that the pandemic is getting worse not better, so stay home and wear your masks. There is no reason to expend large amounts of effort on something that will not make any difference. Only fools do that -- and Somerby apparently.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How is curiosity involved in determining that an average is 2733 instead of 2735?

      A seven day average doesn't mean that 2733 people died during those 7 days. It means that on same days the number of daily deaths were higher than 2733 and on some days lower, with the best descriptor of central tendency being 2733. When you are talking about a rising trend, the highest number at the end of a 7-day period may be lower than the subsequent numbers that will occur in the next week, causing the average to rise. Somerby objects because Maddow reported the current day's figure, not an average that included the preceding 7 days of lower numbers. To report the 7-day average with those lower figures would be misleading in a situation where the number of cases has been growing exponentially. Insisting on using a 7-day average that represents the past and not the increasing growth is wrong, if your purpose is to impress upon people that they need to stay at home NOW, not in a few days when the average catches up to that higher number reported by Maddow.

      Somerby is being irresponsible and neglecting the importance of staying safe and telling the public what they need to do now, not in a week or so when covid has infected them or their family members.

      But Somerby's priority seems to be getting the numbers right, not informing the public of essential health information to better guide their behavior IN A FUCKING PANDEMIC!!!

      Delete
  5. "As a general matter, the children tell us the stories we like."

    As a general matter, does Somerby think we like to hear that covid stats are getting worse? I certainly don't. The people I hang around with think the pandemic is a bad thing and that rising numbers and more deaths are tragic. We are depressed about it, unhappy, and if we know anyone sick or dying, we are grieving. What world does Somerby live in?

    Conservatives call liberals a lot of bad things, but wishing for higher covid numbers is a step too far. That is an awful thing to say about anyone. What is wrong with Somerby?

    ReplyDelete
  6. “as far as we know, there is no record of how many people died on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, or on any particular day.”

    This is, of course, patently false.

    The death data comes from death certificates, which include the date of death.

    Most Covid trackers, including the CDC, use reported date rather than actual date of death because of a lag in posting the death certificate to the relevant computer system.

    However, “deaths by date of report were likely to be an undercount of the true number of deaths for that day” and “Deaths counted by date of report deaths may peak at an earlier date than deaths counted by date of death, but the trends are highly correlated.”
    (https://covidtracking.com/blog/is-there-a-right-way-to-chart-covid-19-deaths-over-time)

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  14. "Are we heading, very quickly, toward three thousands deaths every day? In a sense, yes we are! But we'll have to get to two thousand deaths per day first!"

    That will be next week. We are going to get to two thousand deaths per day next week. (7 day moving average.) The average passed 1,800 today.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The old man and I read The Plague by Albert Camus.

    Somerby had referenced it here.

    Just read it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because mid-20th century Algeria is so much like the modern USA.

      "Many consider this novel to be a war allegory of the French resistance to the Nazis in World War II, pointing out the futility of human aspirations and the inevitability of suffering."

      Just like today, with Trump's nazification of the US.

      Delete
    2. Stephen King's The Stand, Chapter 8: read it.

      Delete
    3. Anonymouse 8:34am, anything insidious will seem comparable, what I found so compelling is that Camus is so dead-on articulate and true as to the emotional and intellectual responses.

      Delete
    4. Jim Jensen, just read it.

      The U.S. developed the virus. The U.S. surreptitiously spreads it to other countries via their own intelligence officers, A police officer named Joe Bob is instrumental in passing the 90% fatal virus along.

      Art hasn’t imitated life here, but you can’t have everything.

      Delete
  16. Josh Marshall reports:

    "2760 deaths were recorded, exceeding the 2752 deaths recorded on April 15th. While some part of that number may still be a reporting backlog from the holiday weekend there is every reason to believe that record will be exceeded again and again over the coming weeks and possibly months. All the evidence suggests it will get worse, quite likely much worse, and stay worse at least into February."

    Meanwhile, Somerby would rather fiddle and mock Rachel Maddow for saying essentially the same thing.

    ReplyDelete
  17. From Political Wire (Taegan Goddard quoting NY Times):

    “Governors, mayors and county executives have pleaded for federal aid before the end of the year. Congressional Republicans have scorned such assistance, with the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, calling it a ‘blue-state bailout.'”

    “But it turns out this budget crisis is colorblind. Six of the seven states that are expected to suffer the biggest revenue declines over the next two years are red — states led by Republican governors and won by President Trump this year.”

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    Contact him today on:wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com or whatsapp him on +2348136482342

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  22. I want to thank Emu Temple for the accurate readings he gave me and for also helping me bring back my lover.. If you are here and you are having any relationship problem please Contact Emu Temple on Via Email: emutemple@gmail.com OR Via WhatsApp +2347012841542 and result is 100% guarantee and He do lot more as:*Love Spells*Lost Love Spells*Divorce Spells*Stop Divorce Spell*Marriage Spells*Binding Spells*Breakup Spells*You want to be promoted in your office*Want to satisfy your lover*Death Spell*Gay/Lesbian Love Spell*Court case Spell*Politics Spell*Good-luck Spell*Bad Luck Remover Spell*Do as i say Spell*General cleansing Spell*Herbal remedy for all kind of disease    
    *Lottery Spell*Pregnancy Spell*Peins enlargement 

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  23. HERBAL DR EMU WHO PREPARE HERBAL MEDICINE TO CURE ALL KINDS OF DISEASES INCLUDING HERPES DISEASE.   
     I have been battling this Herpes disease for almost 3 years now....I tried all possible means to get cure from my Herpes Disease but all to be in vain until i saw a post in a health forum about a herbal Dr Emu who prepare herbal medicine to cure all kind of diseases including Herpes Disease, at first i doubted if it was real but decided to give it a try...when i contact Dr Emu via his email (emutemple@gmail.com)  write him and reply me explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 3/4 working days through DHL Delivery and I took it according to the way Dr Emu instructed, I was so happy after 2 week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health when I was done with the process I go for test, I found out I am negative...Herpes patients should also get in touch with this herbalist Dr Emu to get rid of these Herpes Virus forever his whatsapp number +2347012841542. Website: https://emutemple.wordpress.com/ 

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  24. This year 2020 has been so blissful to me for God has given me a reason to live happily again after been heart broken for 6 years when my husband neglected me and went back to he's mistress. I suffered and went through all types of emotional tortures for i couldn't get any help to get my man back not until i was refereed to Dr. Iyaya by my co-worker who gave me her full assurance about him that he can be of help to me. I got in touch with Dr. Iyaya and i hearken to his words and followed the instructions given to me by him. Could you believe that my husband got back home within 48hours as said by him and today, my marriage is restored & i'm so thankful, appreciative & grateful to God for using Dr. Iyaya to get my man back after 9 months of broken marriage. Is there anyone out there who needs to get back to he's or her lover back or needs any help of any kind? Then, i suggest that you get in touch with Dr. Iyaya now through his Email: doctoriyaya@gmail.com Call WhatsApp +2347032756397 for more information, visit his website you may found your solution there www.https://dr-iyaya-herbal-remedy.webnode.com God bless you sir.

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  25. My husband and I have been having lots of problems living together, he never gives me attention or makes me happy because he has fallen in love with another woman outside our marriage. I tried my best to make sure that my husband leaves this woman but the more I talk to him about it the more he makes me feel sad and unhappy, My marriage started leading to divorce because he no longer gives me attention. I wanted to forget him but i love him and didn't want to lose him. We have been married for years and he is all I could call a true best friend and best in all, the man that handles my problems perfectly, the man that makes sacrifices for ,my happiness. I wanted him back in my life badly and I was so confused. My Friends told me to buy books about relationships, so I went online for relationship books while I came across a spell caster called Dr Emu. I read testimonies and reviews about him so I contacted him immediately, explained my problems to him. Same day , he casted a spell for me and assured me for 2 days that my husband will return to me and to my greatest surprise the third day my husband came knocking on my door and begged for forgiveness. I am so happy that my love is back again and not only that, we are about to get married again, he proposed. I wouldn't stop talking about him. Contact him today if you need his help via email: emutemple@gmail.com and you will see that your problem will be solved without any delay. Website: https://emutemple.wordpress.com/

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  26. To anyone out there who thinks love spells don't work, I’m here to tell you that Lord Zakuza love spell is the best and most powerful. I am a wealthy man who has lots of assets and possessions but I have difficulty with women. Whenever I try to settle down with any, we end up breaking up and I had no idea of why I was going through such an experience in my relationship. It was so worrying that I couldn’t be myself anymore and I started searching for help everywhere even at my place of work. I was going through my work activities online and I came across a testimony of a lady called ( Febe Anouk ) regarding how Lord Zakuza helped her to restore her relationship with his love spell, I had to give it a try and I visited Lord Zakuza and I told him everything I was going through. Lord Zakuza consoled and promised to help me out with my situation by preparing a love spell for me. I followed the instructions given by him to me and within 48 hours, my Ex lover came looking for me and pleaded for forgiveness. Since I came in contact with Lord Zakuza, things have changed for good in my life and right now, I am married with two beautiful kids and my home is blessed. All thanks to Lord Zakuza I am forever thankful to you. WhatsApp him on +1 (740) 573-9483. Try him and your life will be blessed.

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  27. Covid-19 or Corona virus is the most powerful virus in the world in this moment.It is the most harmful virus in the world.It may causes death.Many people in the world everyday for this virus.So we should take many necessary steps to away from the Corona virus.Firstly we should maintain social distance.No need to go outside aspect emergency. Read more about HIPAA and COVID-19 Vaccine.

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