THURSDAY, AUGUST 21, 2025
New York Times echoes Daily Howler: The Massachusetts "gerrymander" muddle has been unpacked again!
This muddle has been vexing the various savants employed by the Fox News Channel. For now, we'll take you back to the August 12 edition of The Will Cain Show (4 p.m., Monday through Friday).
Cain was sure that the Massachusetts congressional map just had to have been gerrymandered. His evidence, such as his evidence was, went exactly like this:
CAIN (8/12/25): It just kind of flies in the face of reality when I look at the state of Massachusetts, where Donald Trump gets 35% of the votes and there are zero Republican representatives from the state.
Words say one thing, and actions do something else in a place like Massachusetts. So, you can’t–so you can’t bring up random words and actions to me when I see the evidence in these states.
We'll link you to the full discussion below. Simply put, Cain was saying that Democrats do engage in gerrymandering, just like Texas is now doing. Just look at Massachusetts, where Candidate Trump got 35% of the vote—but all nine members of the state's delegation to the House of Representatives are Democrats!
Please don't say that isn't a gerrymander! Any such statement flies in the face of reality!
Full disclosure: Sometimes, Democrats do gerrymander their congressional districts. The state of Illinois is a current prime example.
Also this:
Will Cain is perfectly bright, in the basic IQ sense. Because of that observable fact, we sometimes find it hard to believe that he's being fully sincere in some of the mandated talking points he agrees to agree with.
This isn't necessarily one of those cases! As we've noted several times in recent weeks, the logic of redistricting and gerrymandering is routinely misconstrued. We're going to guess that Brother Cain didn't know why his presentation about the Bay State didn't make a whole lot of sense.
Today, this vexing piece of logic has been clarified for all time. In the New York Times, Nate Cohn has slain the dragon in an analysis piece which starts exactly like this:
Trump Says Massachusetts’ All-Blue Map Is Unfair. Is He Right?
It’s easy to understand why President Trump and Republicans point to the Massachusetts congressional map in their push to justify redistricting in Texas and other red states.
Last year, Mr. Trump won 36 percent of the state’s vote, but neither he nor Republican House candidates managed to win even one of nine congressional districts. The state’s map plan has been ranked as “more skewed” than 95 percent of plans nationwide by PlanScore, a nonprofit group that is advised by legal scholars, political scientists and mapping experts.
It certainly sounds unfair, but is it a gerrymander? That’s not so simple.
While it might seem reasonable to expect that Republicans would win three or four seats with more than a third of the presidential vote, it’s really not obvious that Republicans should win a single district in Massachusetts, let alone three.
As always, we'd say that Coen is being too kind when he excuses the endless MAGA muddle about this basic point. Someone should have explained the logic of this matter to President Trump long ago—not that it would have made any difference.
That said, the incomprehension is general over the discourse with respect to this general topic. As he continues, Cohen explains what we've explained several times in the past few weeks. using similar numbers:
COEN (continuing directly): The problem is geography—or more specifically, the geographic distribution of a party’s voters across the state. For better or worse, congressional districts represent the voters of the different geographic areas of a state; they don’t directly represent a state’s voters. There is no guarantee that the state’s population as a whole will be well represented by the winners of each of a state’s geographic areas. This is at the heart of why it can be hard to detect—let alone prohibit—partisan gerrymandering.
Imagine, for instance, a state that votes 60-40 for one party, with every neighborhood voting 60-40. If so, it is impossible to draw a district for the minority party: While there are plenty of minority party voters, there’s no area that can be drawn to represent that party’s voters.
That's what we've been saying! If the population of a 60-40 state is evenly distributed across the state, it may be impossible to create a district which doesn't tilt strongly in favor of the statewide majority party.
Massachusetts is one such state. As Coen explains, there is no significant region of the state which doesn't tilt Democratic.
The heavily Democratic state of Maryland is different. Here in Maryland, we have one part of the state—the so-called "Eastern Shore" on the eastern side of the Chesapeake Bay—which tilts fairly strongly Republican.
Massachusetts has no such outlier region. For that reason, Maryland has one (1) Republican congressman. Massachusetts has none.
Coen goes into substantial detail about this elementary piece of logic. Not being the more typical Fox News Channel tribune, it seems to us that Cain should already have figured this out on his own.
To see him trying to puzzle this out, you can simply click this link for videotape of the August 12 show, as supplied by Mediaite. On that occasion, he was debating Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, about this general matter.
For the record, Rep. Talarico didn't we explain the logic of this matter himself! He just kept noting that a Republican governor in Massachusetts had approved the existing congressional map.
With his new report, Coen has explained this matter in detail, convincingly slaying a dragon. In closing, though, we offer this basic point:
It won't make a lick of difference! Our discourse runs on the rocket fuel of endlessly bungled logic.
The bungling is part of a widespread consensus. Nothing can, and nothing will, ever change that fact!
"WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Residents of Washington, DC are less afraid of the city’s homeless population than they are of accidentally running into Stephen Miller, according to a new poll released on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteWhen asked, “What do you fear most?,” 4 percent said, “the homeless,” while 87 percent said, “Being seated at a restaurant next to Stephen Miller.”
Describing her fear of encountering Miller, one poll respondent stated, “It’s the stuff of nightmares.”
In another finding, 67 percent said they feared being hit by a car driven by Pete Hegseth."
I don't think poor black people being mugged and murdered is as funny as Borowitz thinks it is.
DeleteWe all know how much you care about poor black people. This Borowitz paragraph is not about black people but about homeless people. Are you assuming all homeless people in DC are black? Isn't that stereotyping? Did black just leap into your mind when Borowitz asked about fear, because that's who most white conservatives fear, black people? Your subconscious biases are showing, David.
Delete"I don't think poor black people being mugged and murdered is as funny as Borowitz thinks it is."
DeleteHere we find DiC applying his inevitably right wing interpretation of every phenomenon.
Who is Borowitz poking fun at? Poor, beleaguered black people? Or Miller and Hegseth?
The #1 cause of crime is poverty. That is a universal finding among criminologists worldwide. A criminologist is a person who studies the causes and prevention of crime. Given that we understand the causes and how to reduce crime, why are conservatives calling for police brutality instead of the resources that really work. Look at Baltimore and Wes Moore for an example of how to dramatically reduce crime. It has nothing to do with more cops, much less federal troops.
DeleteIf David truly cared about black people being mugged and murdered he would support anti-crime efforts that work. Instead MAGA and DOGE have been undermining and destroying anti-crime efforts all across the country, in favor of heavy-handed and punitive measures that make people's lives worse (victims and poor people alike) instead of helping solve crime-related problems.
As long as David persists in ignoring real crime reduction measures, his "concern" for black people remains suspiciously performative to the point of being racist.
As explained here several times before, you cannot determined whether a map is gerrymandered or not by looking at the outcomes of elections. That approach assumes that voting will conform to the same approach used to create districts. When districts are created based on historical considerations, geographical regions, prior voting patterns or registrations, traits of voters such as gender, race, ethnicity, religion, number of people in a region, education levels, occupations, industries, and so on, there is no reason why the voting results in a given precinct should mimic the statewide outcome or the national results.
ReplyDeleteWhen an otherwise intelligent and experienced politician seems not to understand this, I suspect ulterior motives, such as making a fuss to sway public opinion.
When Somerby calls this bungled logic, he ignores the motives involved, such as willful misunderstanding and obfuscation.
Somerby may not recognize that Coen's is the same argument Somerby himself used to argue the impossibility of racially desegregating big city schools without redrawing urban district and suburban boundaries to include more white kids.
Somerby spells this guy's name as Cohn, Cohen, and Coen. Are these are the same people or one person with a mangled name? Which is correct?
ReplyDeleteHow hard is it to check the NY Times and get the guy's name right in the first place? Not very, if you care about what you're writing.
Bob doesn’t care about correct spelling. He’s not serious.
DeleteBorowitz says: "One of Donald Trump’s favorite hobbies is inventing new African countries. In 2017, he spoke about the nation of “Nambia,” and on Monday, he bragged about ending a war in "The Republic of Condo.""
ReplyDeleteTrump's stated number of settled conflicts went from 6 to 7 yesterday. Is that because of this imaginary nation? Like words, names mean something.
Names are words.
DeleteMassachusetts is one of two states where each and every county voted against Trump.
ReplyDeleteThat may be because of the high number of universities in the state. There are 36 in Boston alone.
DeleteSomerby refers to a Massachusetts "miasma" but what is a miasma?
ReplyDeletemiasma definition: "a highly unpleasant or unhealthy smell or vapor"
I get it that Somerby loves the alliteration of using the words MA and miasmi and muddle all in the same sentence, but you still have to make sense. When Somerby grabs phrases and titles and song lyrics almost at random because he likes their sound or they evoke some nostalgia, he weakens his ability to communicate because other people don't react to those words the same way, especially not when he ignores meanings and concentrates mainly on sounds or some ugly mood state (as occurs with THE DEAD). When Somerby was at Harvard, someone should have taught him how to use figurative language, because these personal reactions aren't it. They are more the way a schizophrenic person or someone who doesn't care about communicating uses them, with personal meanings that no one else can guess and he doesn't both explaining (or perhaps cannot explain).
Those in MA, who have done nothing wrong in their districting, might object to be called foul-smelling, but I doubt Somerby cares about that at all. Only red voters matter to Somerby -- we blues are dead and don't deserve to have opinions and are never asked in diners what we think about Trump. And now we are being called "muddled" too. And we didn't even do the districting -- just the voting.
both = bother
DeleteBob isn’t cognitive.
Delete
ReplyDelete"Massachusetts is one such state. As Coen explains, there is no significant region of the state which doesn't tilt Democratic."
Oh, cracka, please. The term "gerrymandering" originates in MA, and now your NYT Soros-bot tells us that MA districts were created by God Himself?
So, in effect, what you're telling us here is that you, Bob, are a braindead DNC-bot yourself. Okay, sure you are. Who cares.
You've obviously never lived in MA, or even visited it, it sounds like.
Delete"Districts were created by God Himself" seems a bit overwrought in restating "there is no significant region of the state which doesn't tilt Democratic."
DeleteAnother court case goes against Trump:
ReplyDelete"U.S. District Judge Matthew Brann ruled that Alina Habba, President Donald Trump's acting U.S. attorney in New Jersey, could not continue in her role.
In a 77-page ruling on Thursday, Brann noted that the Trump administration had used "a novel series of legal and personnel moves" to keep Habba in her position after a panel of judges effectively ousted her. Two defendants, Julien Giraud Jr. and Cesar Pina, argued that Habba could not oversee their prosecutions.
"Faced with the question of whether Ms. Habba is lawfully performing the functions and duties of the office of the United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey, I conclude that she is not," Brann wrote. "And because she is not currently qualified to exercise the functions and duties of the office in an acting capacity, she must be disqualified from participating in any ongoing cases."
Real Problems. Real Solutions.
ReplyDelete"Trump Launches National Security Probe into Wind Imports:
Wind turbines, components come under scrutiny"
I was wrong. Trump's kindness toward Putin and Russia totally failed. Time to something else.
ReplyDeleteIn the face of dragging peace efforts, Russia hammers Ukraine with one of its biggest drone and missile attacks of the year
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-the-face-of-dragging-peace-efforts-russia-hammers-ukraine-with-one-of-its-biggest-drone-and-missile-attacks-of-the-year
Putin is evil.
DeleteRacism is flourishing because right wing hostility toward women and black people is being more openly expressed. Here is an example of the revival of racist attack on minorities and women:
ReplyDelete"Local Democrats in Cobb County, Georgia, are enraged over a series of unflattering cartoons about the recently elected district attorney, Sonya Allen, describing it as "Jim Crow propaganda."
The series of cartoons, posted to Facebook by local attorney Megan Webb Grout, accompanied by a lengthy poem mocking Allen, depict her as a flatulent, bumbling clown and use such terms as "DA Allen's Circus."
Cobb County includes some of the northwest suburbs of Atlanta.
"Eight months ago, the people of Cobb County made history by electing a new District Attorney — a Black woman chosen by the voters to lead our justice system with integrity and vision," said the statement from the Cobb County Democratic Committee. "That decision reflected the will of the people, the promise of progress, and the strength of our democracy. Yet, instead of respecting that choice, some have resorted to the oldest and most dangerous tactics: ridicule, caricature, and racist mockery."
"This image revives Jim Crow-era propaganda once used to diminish Black leadership, especially Black women in power," the statement continued. "We must also be honest about why such attacks are so brazen now. Since the election of Donald Trump, racism and white nationalism have been emboldened in ways not seen in decades. What once hid in the shadows has become front-facing encouraged by leaders who trade in division and dehumanization."
The right wing response to these concerns is "What's the matter, can't you take a joke?" and "Women and blacks need to develop thicker skins."
Were the cartoon worse than the anti-Trump cartoons that are often printed?
ReplyDeleteAnti-Trump cartoons have to do with his abhorrent behavior, not the color of his skin.
Delete@6:34 mentioned no cartoons based on skin color.
Delete