BREAKING: How stagnant are our stagnant wages?

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 29, 2020

It all depends on what the meaning of "stagnant wages" is:
BREAKING: Children who are born today are destined to age very slowly—at exactly our-fourth the rate of everybody else!

Also, Times subscribers continue to share and discuss the dating behavior of Lindsay Crouse's ex-boyfriend!

You read it here and nowhere else! On today's page A3 (print editions only), the feature called "The Conversation" does indeed start as shown, in classic Groundhog Day fashion:
The Conversation
FOUR OF THE MOST READ, SHARED AND DISCUSSED POSTS FROM ACROSS NYTIMES.COM

1) Coronavirus Live Updates: Global Risk Is "Very High," W.H.O. Says as Epidemic Spreads
The day's live briefing about the coronavirus was once again the top story on Friday...

2) My Ex-Boyfriend's New Girlfriend is Lady Gaga
"How do you compare yourself with Lady Gaga?" asks Lindsay Crouse in this Opinion article, which was again among the day's most read on Friday.
If we can believe what we read in the Times, the dilemma created by Crouse's ex-boyfriend continues to attract the concern of the rational animal. To recall the shape of yesterday's list, you can just click this.

Does the boyfriend topic seem a bit light? For what it's worth, the third and fourth topics on today's list are these:
3) The Leopard Cub With the Lioness Mom
The lions and leopards of Gir National Park, in Fujarat, India, normally do not get along. But about a year ago...

4) No, Not Sanders, Not Ever
In this Opinion article, the columnist David Brooks makes an argument against Senator Bernie Sanders...
Crouse's ex-friend and the Lioness Mom—and also, just say no!

Just say no to Sanders! These are the topics the Times presents as most read, most shared, most discussed.

We offer these facts without comment. As we prepare to say goodbye to much of all this, let's consider a murky concept—the concept of "stagnant wages."

Stagnant wages are known to be bad. But what are people talking about when they talk about "stagnant wages?"

As with most of our standard statistical artifacts, very few people could tell you. The phrase is tossed around in partisan fights, though few people could really explain whether our wages, such as they are, are actually stagnant at all.

How stagnant are our stagnant wages? A recent post by Kevin Drum helps us unpack the familiar though murky concept.

Drum's post starts as shown below. We include his headline:
DRUM (2/28/20): The Great Income Decline Is Real

For some reason I’ve recently seen a little spate of skepticism over the notion that middle-class incomes have been stagnant for quite a while. I suppose this is a reaction to Bernie Sanders, who certainly has a habit of making things sound a little more catastrophic than they really are. But that’s no reason to doubt the basic fact of income stagnation—at least for some people.

Here are the figures from the Census Bureau for men of different ages:
Drum has heard some people questioning the familiar claim that middle-class incomes have been stagnant.

He says the great income decline is real. But what does that actually mean?

After the bit of text we've posted, Drum presents an instructive graphic. It shows median annual income (adjusted for inflation) for men of four different age ranges, dating from the late 1940s on through 2018.

Have wages (or income) for these men been stagnant? Have incomes been in decline? Consider men who were in the 45-54 age range as of 2018.

According to Kevin's graphic, men in this age group earned something like $58,000, on average, in 2018. Adjusted for inflation, that's roughly what their counterparts—previous groups in that same age range—had been earning since 1970.

Back in 1975, men who were 45-54 years old were earning roughly that same amount. That's what a person can sensibly mean with a claim about "stagnant wages." After adjusting for inflation, these 50-year-old men today are earning no more than their counterparts did over the past fifty years.

How terrible is that state of affairs? Everyone gets to decide! But that's what a sensible claim about stagnant wages might mean.

What can't such a claim sensibly mean? A sensible claim can't mean this:

A sensible claim can't mean that men who are 50 years old today are earning no more than they themselves earned when they were younger. Consider a basic example:

Mathematically, men who were 45-54 years old in 2018 were 25-34 years old in 1998. And what was that cohort earning back then? According to Kevin's graphic, men who were 25-34 years old were earning something like $45,000, on average, in that earlier year.

In short, the average man in this group has seen his income rise from $45,000 in 1998 to $58,000 today. In that sense, his wages haven't been "stagnant," let alone "in decline."

Does any such erudition matter? Actually no, it does not.

You rarely hear anything in our discourse which isn't built around confusion, misdirection, conflation or simple misstatement. Given the way our brains are wired, and given the way our institutions work, there's nothing anyone will ever say which is ever going to change that.

Bernie Sanders to the side, we liberals like to say that wages have been stagnant, full stop. We like to say that because it suggests that income inequality, and the "rigging" of our economic system, are especially bad.

We often talk about wage stagnation in ways which don't exactly make sense. This will sometimes encourage The Others to decide that we can't be trusted.

Our statements are often misleading. But that's the way our failing discourse routinely works. In fact, our failing discourse works that way all the whole freaking way down!

Friend, are you a man in the 45-54 year age range? If so, then you, on average, are earning substantially more than you did twenty years ago.

On the other hand, you aren't earning more than men of that age were earning, on average, over the course of the past fifty years. In that sense, wages have been stagnant. In the other sense, they've grown.

Over the course of our 22 years at this site, we've learned One Big Thing. Distinctions like these are light years beyond the capacity of our discourse. Our discourse runs on bullroar, error, posing and spin, and it always will.

(Anthropologists says this enabled Donald J. Trump—future anthropologists, that is. Like others warehoused in the academy, contemporary anthropologists rarely attempt to serve.)

We now return to our regularly scheduled broadcasting, in which our journalists spend hours on end speculating about the way different groups of people might vote somewhere next week.

Also, in which we the people—we rational animals—share our thoughts about Crouse's ex-boyfriend and about the leopard cub who has the lioness mom.

Starting Monday: When the authors of best-sellers posture, pose, thunder and flail

35 comments:

  1. “In short, the average man in this group has seen his income rise from $45,000 in 1998 to $58,000 today. In that sense, his wages haven't been "stagnant," let alone "in decline."”

    Why would anyone look at it this way, except to make the disingenuous argument of “hey, your wages rose,didn’t they? Those liberals are full of sheet.”

    Most men’s wages rise as they get older. (It’s a bit different for women). The point of discussing wage stagnation is to make a slightly more sophisticated point, that wages today, even if they rise as workers age, don’t amount to anymore relatively speaking than they did in 1970.

    Which brings us to:

    “We often talk about wage stagnation in ways which don't exactly make sense. This will sometimes encourage The Others to decide that we can't be trusted.”

    What liberal is saying that men don’t make more as they age? That is beside the point. It is the buying power of the wage that hasn’t changed, whether the man is 25 or 55.

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  2. Dear Bob, even your definition of "wage stagnation" doesn't make a whole lotta sense, I'm afraid.

    Yes, dear Bob, Comparing "wages" only makes logical sense with all other things being equal.

    So, you insist on equal age, fine. But there is a much more important variable: productivity. And productivity did increase, dramatically, since the 70s.

    And so, considering the dramatic increase in productivity, dear Bob, if the wages, even adjusted for inflation, stayed the same, calling it "wage stagnation" merely obscures the fact of a dramatic increase in rates of exploitation...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The increased productivity is coming from robotics, AI and use of computer automation and communication devices. It isn't coming because workers are working harder. You could argue that robots are being exploited but I doubt if you'll get much sympathy.

      Delete
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  3. Notice that both Somerby and the analyses he cites focus only on men. That's because patterns are different for women. That makes the conclusions less clear cut, but shouldn't wages of female workers be included in this kind of a discussion?

    It bothers me even more that both Somerby and whoever he is citing consider it natural or OK to exclude women, as if women should just be happy with whatever they get.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That whooshing you heard? It was the point going over your head.

      Delete
    2. Somerby has his point and I have mine.

      Delete
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  5. Sounds like math tome.
    There is no reason in the world any liberal should feel the need to cede an argument about math (even the 2+ 2 kind) to a Conservative.
    Conservatives know as much about mathematics as economics, humor, history, etc (i.e nothing).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who could argue with that logical reasoning? ;)

      Delete
    2. Me and my kinfolk make bitchin' moonshine.

      Delete
    3. I didn't realize that about Mao.
      I figured he was a typical white, rich, suburban GOP voter, who fears black people.

      Delete
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  15. I just got my ex husband back through the help of Dr OSOFO love spells Experts!..My husband left me for another woman, This was just 2 years of our marriage. The most painful thing is that I was pregnant with our second baby. I wanted him back. I did everything within my reach to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so badly because of the love I had for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back , I had no choice than to try it. I messaged the spell caster call Dr OSOFO and he assured me there was no problem and that everything will be okay before 11 hours. He cast the spell and surprisingly 9 hours later my husband called me. I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that had happened He wanted me to return to him. He also said he loved me so much. I was so happy andent to him that was how we started living together happily again.thanks to man, do not cry anymore, contact Dr.OSOFO for help now..Here his contact, WhatsApp him: +2349065749952 {or} Email him at: ( osofo.48hoursolutioncenter@gmail.com )  

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  16. I just want to share my experience with the entire world on how i got my husband back and saved my marriage… I was married for 5 years with 2 kids and i have been living happily with my family until things started getting ugly with me and my husband that leads us to fights and arguments almost every time… it got worse at a point that my husband filed for divorce… I tried my best to make him change his mind & stay with me cause i loved him with all my heart and didn't want to loose my husband but everything just didn't work out… He moved out of the house and still went ahead to file for divorce… I pleaded and tried everything but still nothing worked. The breakthrough came when someone introduced me to this wonderful, great spell caster called Dr Oniha, Who eventually helped me out… I have never been a fan of things like this but just decided to try it because I was desperate and left with no choice… He did the spell for me and things really work out as he promise and my husband have a change of mind and come back home to stay with me and the kids. And promise never to hurt me again. we are living happily as it was with the help of Dr Oniha. If you are in need of help you can contact Dr Oniha.
    Email :onihaspelltemple@gmail. com
    Website: http://onihaspells.com
    Call/Whatsapp:+1669223962 

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  17. Making a relationship testimony is something I never believed I would be writing because I never believed in any spell caster after contacting several spell casters who did not help me until I met Doctor Oboite Zazabo. My name is Clara Lowton and I am from Iowa, Des Moines. Only Doctor Oboite Zazabo gave me hope to live again as I have struggled with suicide thoughts over the past 4 years since my ex boyfriend left me for another lady. I was so devastated and having contacted spell casters who did not help me, I lost hope in spells and magic in the return of lost love. It was a twist of fate when a friend of mine at my work place told me about Doctor Oboite Zazabo when she knew what I was going through and I emailed him and also sent him a message on WhatsApp. The result was 100%. In less than 3 days, my ex called me and wanted to meet me after 4 years of no contact and I was very happy. The next day he came to me and proposed to me. I am the happiest lady writing this testimony. Recommendable, I would like everyone who need help in returning your lost love or passing through marriage problems to contact Doctor Oboite Zazabo at droboitezazabo@gmail.com OR WhatsApp him at +1(319) 246 2035...

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  18. It’s obvious some patient with HERPES/HIV/CANCER are been enslaved to the
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  19. Testimony By Lizzy Desler. How to get your ex back fast!

    I was hurt and heart broken when a very big problem occurred in my marriage seven months ago, between me and my husband . so terrible that he took the case to court for a divorce. he said that he never wanted to stay with me again,and that he didn't love me anymore. So he packed out of the house and made me and my children passed through severe pain. I tried all my possible means to get him back, after much begging, but all to no avail. and he confirmed it that he has made his decision, and he never wanted to see me again. So on one evening, as i was coming back from work, i met an old friend of mine who asked of my husband .So i explained every thing to him, so he told me that the only way i can get my husband back, is to visit a priest, because it has really worked for him too. So i never believed in spell, but i had no other choice, than to follow his advice. Then he gave me the Email address of the priest whom he visited. Pristbacasim2000@gmail.com. So the next morning, i sent a mail to the address he gave to me, and the priest assured me that i will get my husband back the next day. What an amazing statement!! I never believed, so he spoke with me, and told me everything that i need to do. Then the next morning, So surprisingly, my husband who didn't call me for the past 7 months, gave me a call to inform me that he was coming back. So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day, with lots of love and joy, and he apologized for his mistake, and for the pain he caused me and my children. Then from that day, our relationship was now stronger than how it were before, by the help of a priest. So, i will advice you out there if you have any problem contact Priestbacasim, i give you 100% guarantee that he will help you.. Email him at: Pristbacasim2000@gmail.com or call +2348144258822 / whatssapp.



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  20. My name is JOHN, and I base in USA...My life is back!!! After 5years of Broken marriage, my wife left me with two kids. I felt like my life was about to end i almost committed suicide, i was emotionally down for a very long time. Thanks to a spell caster called drsamuel321@gmail.com, which i met online. On one faithful day, as I was browsing through the internet,I came across allot of testimonies about this particular spell caster. Some people testified that he brought their Ex lover back, some testified that he restores womb,cure cancer,and other sickness, some testified that he can cast a spell to stop divorce and. i also come across one particular testimony,it was about a woman called sharon,she testified about how he brought back her Ex lover in less than 2 days, and at the end of her testimony she dropped DR SAMUEL e-mail address. After reading all these,I decided to give it a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problem to him. In just 48hours, my wife came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before drsamuel321@gmail.com, is a man sent by god and i will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man... If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve all your problems for you. Try Newton of drsamuel321@gmail.com anytime, he might be the answer to your problems. Here's his contact: drsamuel321@gmail.com or Whatsapp +1 (364) 202-5427

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