ACCUSATION MEETS INCOMPETENCE: Reade's accusation could be true!

WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2020

Also, it could be false:
Is it possible that Tara Reade's accusation is true? Is it possible that Joe Biden assaulted Reade in 1993, as Reade has now said?

Yes, of course it's possible! In part, Reade's accusation is possible because every accusation is.

Stating the obvious, every claim is possibly true until someone can prove that it isn't. That's true of Tara Reade's accusation, which could of course be true.

Unfortunately, it's also possible that Tara Reade's accusation is false. Until someone can prove that her claim is true, that's totally possible too!

Some claims do turn out to be false. Ineptly, let's try to remember:

Eventually, the accusation in the Duke lacrosse case turned out to be false. After that, the accusation in the UVa frat party case also turned out to be false.

The tragic accuser in the Duke lacrosse case is now in prison, where she's serving 14 to 18 years for second-degree murder. The accuser in the UVa case left school and was presumably treated for mental health issues.

Meanwhile, are we still supposed to believe that Julie Swetnick's claims concerning Brett Kavanaugh were true? Like all other claims, her claims certainly could have been true. But they also could have been false!

Swetnick's champion, Michael Avenatti, has been in and out of jail himself since the glorious days when we liberals stampeded to believe his latest client's latest claims—since the days when we even thought the great man might maybe should run for the White House himself.

(Also, since the days when we swallowed the manifest nonsense being served by Stormy Daniels. Since the days when we keened and wailed about the fact that we hadn't been able to hear her say that Candidate Trump had engaged in consensual sex with her, on one occasion, a full ten years before. These are the sorts of claims our tiny brains clamor to hear.)

Many accusations are true; some accusations are false. In all honesty, we liberals have a flawed track record distinguishing one group of claims and claimants from the other.

Above all else, we deeply limited human beings have always had a difficult time coming to terms with a basic fact. In the current context, we'll add a second basic fact we've had a hard time processing:
Two basic facts:
1) In many cases of this type, there will never be a way to show that the accusation is true (or false).

2) Sometimes, the claims of female accusers are false.
The human brain just isn't wired to deal with that first basic fact. Our human brain is wired to come to conclusions, and we persistently do.

In the current context, we liberals are constantly devising ways to sidestep that second basic fact. But only because we're so moral and so high-minded!

Is Tara Reade lying in this case? Might she "have problems," as Emily Bazelon seemed to suggest in that podcast at Slate?

We have no way of knowing how to answer those questions. Obviously, though, it's possible that her claim is false—but also, that it isn't.

Concerning this case, let us make the following statement. Almost surely, there will never be a way to demonstrate whether Reade's claim is true, although of course it could be.

There will also never be away to demonstrate that it's false.

Why do we offer that assessment? As a partial answer to your question, consider another recent claim made against Joe Biden.

This claim has apparently been proven false, though it's very hard to make any such demonstration in a way which will satisfy all comers.

What is this other recent claim? All too briefly, Michelle Goldberg provided the grisly play by play in her column in yesterday's New York Times. We apologize for repeating an ugly claim which seems to have been shown to be false:
GOLDBERG (5/5/20): On Friday, the website Law & Crime reported that a niece of Christine O’Donnell, a former Republican Senate candidate in Delaware, said that Biden commented on her breasts at a 2008 Gridiron Club dinner, when she was 14. Several people said they were told about this at the time, but it emerged that Biden wasn’t at the dinner. O’Donnell then said it might have happened at the Gridiron dinner in 2007, but Biden wasn’t at that one either. It was a demonstration of how easily #MeToo can be misused as a political weapon.
Somewhat remarkably, O'Donnell was indeed the Republican nominee for the United States Senate from Delaware in both 2008 and 2010. On balance, she has been seen as a highly marginal figure by major figures in both major parties, though she also got a lot of votes on each of those occasions.

In the case of this recent accusation, a basic mistake was made. The O'Donnell group named a particular time and place at which the alleged misconduct had allegedly occurred!

This gave the accused a chance to prove that he had been somewhere else at the time of the alleged misconduct. When a second, replacement time and place was offered, a second proof appeared.

The O'Donnell camp had made a basic mistake! They had stated a time and a place, thereby giving the accused a chance to prove that the specific claim was false.

(Needless to say, true believers will always believe that the offense must have happened somewhere. This is the way our humans brains have always taught us to react.)

The O'Donnell camp had made a rookie mistake. But in the current claim under review, Reade cites no date on which the alleged offense occurred.

This means there will be no way that the accused could show that he was somewhere else at the specified time. Of course, he might have been right there in that Senate hallway, committing the alleged offense! Or he might be innocent of the charge, though present in that Senate office building on the day in question!

Stating the obvious, human history stinks with false accusations. Here's another example:

In May 1999, Kathleen Willey accused a journalist of having threatened her outside her Richmond, Virginia home. The journalist was allegedly carrying out this threat on behalf of President Clinton, or on behalf of his murderous gang.

Willey made the accusation on Hardball. She was goaded into voicing her claim by Chris Matthews, whose anti-Clinton/Gore behavior was routinely out of control at this point in time.

(This helped send George Bush to the White House, and the U.S. army into Iraq. Hardball was much more influential at that time than it was in recent years.)

At the time of this accusation, Willey had been hailed, by one and all, as the most credible accuser in the history of the planet. Smitten male journalists had stood in line to say how blatantly honest she blatantly was in her various accusations, which surely had to accurate.

Luckily, the accused journalist was able to show that he had been in California at the time of the alleged incident. Matthews apologized for his astonishing conduct, and in line with Mandated Standard Press Corps Behavior, the incident was never mentioned again.

(Before the journalist was able to show that Willey's accusation was false, a man with a history of mental illness was arrested at his home. He had gone there with a gun, apparently planning to shoot the man who had threatened the highly credible Willey.)

This morning, we give up! We give up because we read the bullroar shown below. It comes from the keyboard of Susan Matthews (no relation), who has done good work in the past.

The bosses were willing to print it at Slate. For fuller context, read Matthews' piece. For now, gaze upon the endless works of our human race:
MATTHEWS (5/5/20): And, more relevantly, the 25-year window does not reach back to 1993, when Biden’s then-interns recall Tara Reade being abruptly removed from her duties as their supervisor, and when Reade’s mother phoned in to Larry King Live to say her daughter had been mistreated by a prominent senator. People may have strong reasons to want to believe Biden’s flat declaration that “it didn’t happen,” but if Biden didn’t reach his fingers up her skirt, what did happen then?
In 1993, did Reade's mother "phone in to Larry King Live to say her daughter had been mistreated by a prominent senator?"

Actually, that isn't what the woman in question said—a woman who seems to have been Reade's mother. That's only what the caller said when her words are filtered through human ears—through the ears of at rue believer.

The woman who called Larry King said something quite different from that. It's also true that Tara Reade's mother would have no first-hand way of knowing what had, or hadn't occurred.

At any rate, that isn't what the caller said to Larry King that night. But all through our frequently gruesome human history, true believers have always heard such things being said when they've made their ardent pleas on behalf of some tribal verity.

Around the world, this has led to killing fields and to detention camps. Over Here, it helped produce the election of Donald J. Trump, and it may yet keep him in office.

Nothing will stop misparaphrase from emerging from our human brains. Nothing will stop editors from waving such claims into print.

Meanwhile, is it possible that Tara Reade's accusation true? As with every claim that's ever been made, yes, it certainly is!

That said:

Tomorrow, we'll show you what Emily Bazelon was apparently talking about when she seemed to be say that Reade wasn't all that credible—that she might even "have problems," as with other high-profile accusers in recent years.

None of this will matter, of course. Our press corps has covered for the Willeys all along, and large chunks of it always will.

Also, Reade's accusation could be true! Every claim could be true until someone can show that it isn't—and with this, as with most claims, we can all feel fairly sure that nobody ever will.

Tomorrow: Back to Bazelon

55 comments:

  1. "Meanwhile, is it possible that Tara Reade's accusation true? As with every claim that's ever been made, yes, it certainly is! "

    What? - as with every claim, dear Bob?

    Why don't you stop bullshitting us, dear. Your bullshit is way too inept to convince anyone with a brain.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. "Your bullshit is way too inept to convince anyone with a brain."

      Bob is Mao.

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  2. From Politicus:

    "A Native American health center requested supplies to help them fight Coronavirus but the government sent them body bags instead. Some see the mix-up as part of a broader pattern."

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'd kill to have sex with Trump. Preferably in an Adirondack chair.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey, corporate-owned media, why do you use the moniker "Greg"?

      Delete
    2. 12:04

      I'm the one asking the questions around here pal.

      Delete
  4. Reports: Inexperience and cronyism slowed Kushner-led efforts to procure medical supplies

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/politics/jared-kushner-white-house-volunteers-coronavirus/index.html

    David would like to hold a parade for little boy Jared. Let's see, what new mission can we give to Jared, boy wonder, to fuck up. Because when a pandemic hits I know I want a trust fund baby slum lord married to bosses daughter in charge of obtaining critically needed PPE.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Yes, of course it's possible! In part, Reade's accusation is possible because every accusation is."

    This is ridiculous. Many accusations are utterly impossible because they conflict with everything else that is known about a person and his behavior.

    Somerby holds the view that anything is possible. That is untrue because in order for some things to be possible, other things cannot also be possible. Some things are contradictory or mutually exclusive.

    If you reason the way Somerby does (in this instance), you cannot reach any state of knowledge. Holding open the possibility that something can be true in the face of other also true observations leads to a state of immobility in which nothing can be held as true. Somerby negates the possibility of contradiction by holding everything possibly true. And by making everything possible, he eliminates likelihoods and estimations of probabilities of being true. He endows everything with the same possibility.

    Phooey. This is Somerby's way of encouraging liberals to at least consider the possibility that Biden may have done what he firmly denies. Because thinking about Biden's guilt reduces the likelihood that someone will make a strong effort to get to the polls, which may be increasingly difficult if this virus resurges in the Fall. Would you risk your life to vote for a man who possibly raped Tara Reade? That is Somerby's ploy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. (Finger-raped. There's a difference.)

      Delete
  6. It takes a special kind of denial to think Reade told her mother something different than what actually happened. Her mother did not spell out the details of the rape but her neighbor, a Democrat did. Why would she report that Reade had confided in her except to support a woman who was being dragged through the mud by hypocrite Democrats and lied about by her rapist?

    Her mother's reluctance to offer more details is completely consistent with her daughter's predicament and desire to keep quiet, but making the call is consistent with a high level of concern and outrage about what happened to her daughter.

    There is no serious explanation for her mother's call and LaCasse's support except that the rape happened. If you don't believe Reade, you're straining to find a fig leaf to support a powerful man who raped his staffer.

    "Lynda LaCasse told CNN in a phone interview Monday that she remembers stepping out of her two-bedroom home in Morro Bay, California, to sneak in a cigarette break away from her children. It was 1995, perhaps even early 1996, based on her recollection. LaCasse said she often sat outside on her stoop smoking Virginia Slims, and that on this particular day, she cried as she discussed with Reade a custody battle for her kids.

    She started talking about Joe Biden. And I didn't really know much about Joe Biden," she said. LaCasse said that Reade told her that when she was working in Washington some years prior, Biden "had pushed her up against a wall and he put his hand up her skirt and he put his fingers inside of her, and she was dealing with the aftermath of that."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Reade can come up with one story, that doesn't contradict the dozen or so other stories she's told throughout the years, there might be something to investigate
      She's got a little more than 5 months to find a story and stick with it.
      Good luck to her. Republicans are rooting for her.

      Delete
    2. "There is no serious explanation for her mother's call and LaCasse's support except that the rape happened."

      LaCasse can testify about what Reade believed several years after the fact, but she has no information about what actually happened. Contemporary corroboration consists of things like a roomate who saw Reade come home in tears, take several showers, agonize over whether to report Biden to police, and so on. LaCrosse's statement just says that Reade had a story about Biden that she was telling relative strangers unprovoked several years later. Reade supplied the story during a man-bashing session to cheer up a casual acquaintance (who cannot remember what year it was). "I know how you feel, I am traumatized too" isn't any kind of corroboration, when the story is spiced up (and her own importance inflated) by adding the detail that Biden did it.

      Today we hear that Trump tells people that he could have been a pro baseball player, when his actual box scores show that he was bad at baseball. For all we know, Reade has a personality disorder like Trump's, in which she invents stories that stroke her ego, like her cad was worse than her neighbor's rotten husband. She could have been just trying to top another woman's story with her own, puffed up for the occasion.

      Delete
    3. I never knew the problem with Trump joking "grab em by the pussy" was that it was only talk and he didn't follow through like Joe Biden.

      Delete
    4. I knew the problem with Trump joking that he's "successful businessman" and "very stable genius" was that it was only talk, but the morons and racists who make-up the base of the modern Conservative movement would be too stupid to understand what a joke is.

      Delete
  7. Stormy accused Trump of strong-arming her into signing an NDA. How is that not true?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because Stormy wasn't strong-armed by Trump, she strong-armed him into a payment to buy silence.

      Delete
    2. Trump doesn't pay up unless he has to. Do you think he would pay Stormy anything, if there weren't something to talk about? There are many stories about Trump's mafia-like goons and their strong-arm tactics in other situations, to give Stormy's story credibility. Unlike Stormy, Trump lies all the time and has no credibility. That's why Stormy is believable and Trump is not.

      Yes Somerby takes Trump's side in this? That is odd, given that Somerby is the supposedly objective weigher of evidence, the critical thinker. Here, he ignores all the evidence of Trump's malignance.

      Delete
    3. Not that matters, but Stormy is also a WAY MORE successful businessperson than Trump. One reason? She's a successful businessperson.

      Delete
  8. When you are considering a person's statements, evaluating them for credibility, the presence of "problems" after the fact is not relevant, because being abused can cause someone to have problems. You want to examine the person's behavior BEFORE the supposed abuse, preferably going back to childhood. If you find a pattern of such accusations (perhaps involving other kinds of allegations, unsubstantiated) and mental health problems or emotional difficulties and inability to keep a job or relationship, then you can question the credibility of the latest accusation.

    The woman caller asks "what did happen then?" if not the accused assault. It could be that Reade was fired from her job for incompetence or some work-related reason and wanted to get even. But does that make sense in the context of her life? We have no information because there has been no investigation. Was Reade a get-even type of person? We have no information about that either. Did she perhaps come on to Biden and get angry after being rejected? No information. As long as no one wants to investigate, we have no information. It doesn't make Reade's accusations "possible" to be thinking in a knowledge-vacuum, it makes Reade's accusation highly improbable because we do have a great deal of information about Biden, and none of it corroborates Reade.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Her mother called a TV show and didn't name herself, her daughter, or details because Reade wanted to get even? All of the information we know corroborates Reade and no one doesn't believe Joe Biden is not capable of what he is now lying about not doing.

      None of these excuse making exercises are credible.

      Delete
    2. How do you know it was her mother who called, and not Reade herself? Kind of like when Trump called people and represented himself as his own publicist.

      This isn't really corroboration. If Reade was telling neighbors on the porch, why didn't she tell anyone actually close to her?

      If Biden, handsy as he is, went further and were sexually assaulting women, there would be far more accusers coming forward. But there aren't. That speaks to his innocence.

      Delete
  9. Somerby says: "1) In many cases of this type, there will never be a way to show that the accusation is true (or false).

    2) Sometimes, the claims of female accusers are false."

    But there shouldn't be just two facts. There should be at least three:

    3) Most often, the claims of female accusers are true.

    Why would Somerby forget this important fact? This memory lapse reveals Somerby's bias, his motivation. In the guise of someone urging an objective, fair balancing of facts, Somerby neglects to give women their due.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He forgot that fact and the forgot to include LaCasse's account because it's not convenient that you know about them when the goal is to discredit a victim.

      Delete
    2. LaCasse is someone Reade talked to several years after the supposed incident, on the porch during a casual conversation. That isn't corroboration.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete
  11. “Two basic facts:
    1) In many cases of this type, there will never be a way to show that the accusation is true (or false).

    2) Sometimes, the claims of female accusers are false.”

    “In the current context, we liberals are constantly devising ways to sidestep that second basic fact. But only because we're so moral and so high-minded!”

    Apparently, “61% of Democratic voters believe the former VP’s denial after watching video clip”
    https://morningconsult.com/2020/05/04/after-watching-biden-deny-reades-claims-1-in-4-democrats-want-a-different-nominee/

    That doesn’t look like “we liberals”, or at least the bulk of “us”, are sidestepping the possibility that “Sometimes, the claims of female accusers are false.”

    Why does Somerby say shit like this?

    ReplyDelete
  12. We already knew Republicans didn't care about sexual assault. Now we know Democrats don't either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, Democrats do care about sexual assault, but they care about helping people stay alive more.

      Delete
    2. No they don't. They care about enslaving working people, confiscating guns, hating normal white males, killing babies, and sexual perversion.

      Delete
    3. It only took them 30 years to rat out Weinstein

      Delete
    4. It took women, some liberal some conservative, 30 years to rat out Weinstein. What woman wants to deliberately destroy her career?

      Delete
    5. 3:43,
      Remember 3 months ago, when Republicans were pretending to be for small government, free market capitalism? Good times.

      Delete
  13. In that same Morning Consult poll I cited above, it turns out that “26% of Democrats, including 40% of those under the age of 45, said the party should select a different nominee.”

    (The headline of the item read “After Watching Biden Deny Reade’s Claims, 1 in 4 Democrats Want a Different Nominee”, even though the poll also found “61% of Democratic voters believe the former VP’s denial after watching video clip.”

    I leave it as a question as to why they chose to highlight the 26%, rather than the 61%.)

    At any rate, I have no idea if the 26% wanted another nominee because of Biden’s denial, because of the Reade allegations, or had always wanted another nominee.

    Susan Matthews is among those 26%. Her dislike of Biden is obvious. Perhaps she finds Reade credible, or is willing to believe her because of her dislike of Biden. She doesn’t think Biden is a good spokesman for Democrats, particularly women and the MeToo movement.

    I reject her characterization of the phone call; it is simply false. But I can at least concede that her view about the unfitness of Biden can be legitimately held and argued.

    After all, Somerby himself has stated his opinion that Biden is a terrible candidate, albeit for different reasons.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is tied up with Bernie too. That 26% may include Bernie supporters who were unhappy he "suspended his campaign". The level of dirty tricks is such that Reade may be part of a bring-back-Bernie effort. Otherwise why was Bernie upset about not being on a NY primary ballot? So, rallying around Reade may have nothing to do with #MeToo.

      I dislike Biden because of his treatment of Anita Hill, his support for credit card companies during the revision of the bankruptcy law, his role in writing the crime bill (under Bill Clinton's admin), and his inability to keep his hands off of women and children. I find his folksy persona offensive, and I dislike all plagiarizers (yes, it is an offense). So I wouldn't have supported him during any primary.

      But I will vote for Joe Biden in order to defeat Donald Trump. And I do believe that Tara Reade is not a #MeToo victim, but a put-up job to damage Biden.

      Somerby hasn't discussed the many women who alleged various things against the Clinton's in a while, ranging from rape to murder. All politically inspired, paid off, tools of the right. Because the right is 100% behind Reade and pushing her strongly (witness the newcomers to our comments here), I believe she is working with the Bernie-Russia-Trump coalition against Biden's election. I will continue to believe that until I see evidence to the contrary, because it is the explanation most consistent with prior events over the past several years.

      Delete
  14. Martin Tolchin, a former member of The New York Times’s Washington bureau and a founder of Politico, wrote in a letter to the Times, "I don’t want justice, whatever that may be. I want a win, the removal of Donald Trump from office, and Mr. Biden is our best chance."

    I appreciate Tolchin's honesty. I feel the same way about Trump sexual accusations. Of course, Tolchin's attitude shows that the me-too movement was politically biased when Kavenaugh was attacked for alleged sexual stuff.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kavanaugh wouldn't be on the court if the same evidence existed that Reade has produced and the charge was the rape of a staffer by a Senator and not a teenager copping a feel.

      Delete
    2. Do you understand the term “logic?”
      Tolchin’s view is just that: Tolchin’s view. It does not represent all liberals.

      Example: Today’s TDH post is about a liberal, Susan Matthews, who dislikes Biden, thinks Reade may be credible, and wants Biden removed as the nominee.

      But as Bob Somerby (“we liberals are all alike”), so David in Cal (“the views of one liberal prove what all liberals believe.”)

      You and Somerby make a perfect pair.

      Delete
    3. David, you fucking fascist prick, we already knew you have no moral core, no core values but money, but thanks for confessing so cavalierly what a fucking hypocrite you are.

      E. Jean Carroll is suing trumpolini and is requesting a DNA sample. Donald J Chickenshit, Acting President, claims it would be too burdensome! Bwahaha!!!

      Delete
    4. "Of course, Tolchin's attitude shows that the me-too movement was politically biased when Kavenaugh was attacked for alleged sexual stuff."

      Meh. It's certainly no movement, but a usual orwellian zombie cult crusade, reminiscent of the 'junior anti-sex league' in 1984.

      And it's not 'biased' per se, it's just a tool of the liberal zombie establishment. And like any other tool, it's used when when it's convenient, and put aside where a different tool is needed.

      Delete
    5. Wouldn't it be nice if Trump had to take a virus test every day? Then he would know what a swab is, intimately.

      Delete
    6. "reminiscent of the 'junior anti-sex league' in 1984"

      Sexual assault isn't sex for the victim. Even for the aggressor, it is more about power than sex.

      Delete
  15. If you think back to your own college days, we all knew those frat boy drunken assholes who bothered girls and were loud and destroyed property and weren't funny despite their braying laughter. I can see an asshole like that becoming a lawyer and perhaps moving up in he field because of connections and going-along-to-get-along, but that isn't a qualification for the Supreme Court. And then he lied in his hearing, repeatedly. Kavanaugh was unfit. The sexual assault was a distraction that prevented discussion of his lack of qualifications, his cronyism, his dishonesty. It wouldn't surprise me if the right had encouraged Blasey-Ford's accusations, but I don't think Trump's guys are that clever. There was a lot of support for Ford, a lot of people coming forward to tell us about Kavanaugh's college days. We knew who he was. He should never have been confirmed because he is an asshole.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Women who don't report their "rapes" other than being afraid of violence were not raped. They are playing a game.

    I believe Joe Biden did what Reade says and that she enjoyed the drama if not the incident itself.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Almost every rape allegation has less evidence than the one against Biden.

    Believe all women is bullshit. Believe NO woman unless there is absolute proof.

    ReplyDelete
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