Do you understand the new Times report?

TUESDAY, MAY 5, 2020

Deaths lag behind cases, which skyrocket:
Do you understand the New York Times' new front-page report?

Frankly, we do not.

We refer to the scary report which tops today's front page. It's been the lead topic among all the cables. It starts with some puzzling statistics:
STOLBERG AND SULLIVAN (5/5/20): As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1—nearly double the current level.

The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.
Do you understand those statistics? According to the Times report, projected "cases" will rise almost seven-fold, from the current 30,000 per day to 200,000 per day by June 1.

("Cases" seems to be synonymous here with "infections.")

That would be a giant rise in "cases." But projected deaths lag far behind. According to the Times report, projected deaths don't even double. They only go from the current 1,750 per day to something like 3000.

Why would the projected rise in deaths lag so far behind the projected rise in cases? This is the featured report on the Times' front page, but at no point do Stolberg and Sullivan make any attempt to say.

They don't even note the apparent incongruity in these dueling statistics. So it sometimes goes in our nation's paper of record.

For what it's worth, paragraph 3 is also a pip. In paragraph 3, we learn this:
STOLBERG AND SULLIVAN (continuing directly): They are not the only ones forecasting more carnage. Another model, closely watched by the White House, raised its fatality projections on Monday to more than 134,000 American deaths from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington more than doubled its previous projection of about 60,000 total deaths, an increase that it said partly reflects “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”
Oops! Even as its projections began to depart from reality to an extreme degree, the IHME was suddenly able to notice “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”

Just like that, their projected number of deaths had doubled. Their forecast was back on track!

Returning to the basics:

To what extent does this new "internal document" represent an actual administration prediction?

We have no idea. But on their face, do those reported numbers make sense?

They make no apparent sense to us. That said, the Times didn't seem to notice. So far, we've seen no one explain.

30 comments:

  1. Somerby, unhelpfully, doesn’t link to the Times story.

    Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-death-toll.amp.html

    The story links to the HHS/FEMA “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Situation Update”.
    (https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1)

    The report shows “projected cases per day” and “projected deaths per day” as described in the news report.

    Somerby’s questions about the data will surely be answered once the HHS/FEMA/CDC officials testify before Congress.

    Oh, wait. They’ve been prevented from doing that. So let’s bash the Times!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As Der Fuhrer Donald "the thin skinned" said today, Fauci can't testify to the House because the committee is full of "trump haters"

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the link. I couldn't find the front page of the New York Times anywhere. ��

      Delete
    3. 1:11
      Most people here probably don’t get a physical copy of the New York Times. The blogger should always link to the story in question so that his readers can read and judge for themselves, and look at the actual charts that were referenced.

      It was *probably* just an oversight on Somerby’s part.

      Delete
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  2. “Oops! Even as its projections began to depart from reality to an extreme degree, the IHME was suddenly able to notice “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”

    This seems like basic statistics.

    These policies surely have an impact on number of cases and number of deaths. The policies have been different across different states and are being modified or eliminated at different times and at different rates across the country. Of course this affects model projections. Any model would need to account for these things. It is important for public health officials to be able to take these changes into account in order to adequately plan ahead.

    The big fear is that, as states ease or eliminate restrictions, the numbers will rise again.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As testing capability increases, the people tested include fewer with obvious symptoms. That is, the additional testing picks up more asymptomatic infected people. Many of these asymptomatic people will never develop serious symptoms.

    So, more testing produces more cases, a lower rate of hospital admissions, and a lower mortality rate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That actually...makes sense.

      Delete
    2. That's than been the obvious point since January. Actually that's what Korea, who had their first case on the same day we had our first case, did from the very first day along with social distancing. And that's why they are not dealing with the virus at all anymore which could have been the case with us.

      But now we've learned our lesson. And obviously it's a very expensive lesson that we have learned being that now we are basically the United States of the Bankrupt Citizens.

      But our non-response will end up having been really, really great for the ultra-rich. So it's good news for them.

      Delete
    3. It would be interesting to see Trump explain why his administration dismantled the pandemic response team.

      But hopefully he is putting that back together even though it's too late for this one.

      Delete
    4. Breaking via NYT: Trump administration officials are telling members of the coronavirus task force that the White House plans to wind down the operation and it's not clear whether any other group might replace it.

      time to go out and die, David. Your president needs you "warriors" to get out there and risk your life or stay home and commit suicide.


      “The plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default.” -@jayrosen_nyu

      Delete
  4. Dear Bob, knowing your healthy skepticism towards the phony 'experts' of all kinds, we have no doubt that you realize that 'models' and 'predictions' aren't worth a damn.

    "Do you understand the new Times report?"

    We sure do, dear Bob. All the models/predictions peddled by your zombie 'paper of record' are generated by one single zombie cult script: Orange Man Bad.

    That's all, my dear.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Awful script/ propaganda.
      The people paying the media to pretend Trump is worse than any other piece of shit Republican deserve the guillotine.

      Delete
    2. Trump wants to slash the capital gains tax in the next corona virus relief bill.
      Trump voters are so pissed off about his latest sop to the establishment, some are promising to like other Republican's bigotry more than Trump's until the first week of November.

      Delete
  5. Actually it's your thoughts, predictions, comments and posts that "aren't worth a damm"

    ReplyDelete
  6. It's too late for people in places like NYC with incompetent governors like Andrew Cuomo and populations that didn't social distance when the orders went into place. Trump deserves all of the credit for preventing Cuomo from doing even more damage.

    Other states are getting a handle on managing the crisis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "It's too late for people in places like NYC with incompetent governors like Andrew Cuomo"

      True dat. But it isn't just incompetence.

      Mario's son Andrew ordering the paramedics to not resuscitate - that has gotta be a crime.

      Delete
    2. ma0 ma0 **

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    3. Faggot: Trump wanted to run for president in 2004 as a dembot. He wanted Jesse Ventura to be his VP. Trump is dembot.
      How does that feel dumbshit?

      Delete
  7. I don't care who Joe Biden grabbed by the pussy. He's got my vote.

    ReplyDelete
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    TDH gets results, it seems.

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