National populations look like this!

TUESDAY, MAY 19, 2020

Our'n is larger than their'n:
We tried to cover too many topics this morning. Sometimes that happens.

With respect to coronavirus deaths, one point is very basic:

It didn't make sense when Donald J. Trump kept saying we led the world in tests. Also, it doesn't make sense when journalists keep pimping the claim that we lead the world in deaths.

It's highly misleading, but everyone in the anti-Trump realm says it. Just in this morning's cites, we mentioned Rachel Maddow, Brian Williams, Jake Tapper and CNN's Robyn Curnow.

They all said that we lead the world in deaths. In one sense, of course, that's literally true. But just as it was when Trump kept saying that we lead the world in tests, the claim is grossly misleading.

(Everybody criticized Trump. Then, our team did the same thing!)

For this afternoon, we're just going to show you the populations of some of the world's nations. Many people may not realize how large our population is, as compared to the populations of other well-known lands.

Let's get started:

China and India are the world's largest nations by population. Each has 1.4 billion people, give or take a few.

Below, you see the populations of some countries which get mentioned a lot with respect to the coronavirus. Our population is much larger than everyone else's. Among nations which are being discussed, we do lead in that!
Population of various nations:
United States: 330.7 million
Japan: 126.5 million
Germany: 83.8 million
United Kingdom: 67.8 million
France: 65.2 million
Italy: 60.4 million
South Korea: 51.3 million
Spain: 46.7 million
Canada: 37.7 million
Australia: 25.5 million
Taiwan: 23.8 million
Belgium: 11.6 million
Sweden: 10.1 million
New Zealand: 4.8 million
We're four time the size of Germany. All those other famous nations are ven smaller than that.

Given these data, are you surprised to learn that the United States (330.7 million) has suffered more Covid-19 deaths than Belgium (11.6 million)? We don't think you should be.

Should anyone have been surprised to hear that the United States had administered more tests than everyone else? The same principle applies.

The United States is much larger than the other currently relevant nations. As usual, Donald J. Trump was clowning the nation when he kept saying that we led the world in tests. Maddow, Williams and Tapper are doing the same thing now.

Below, you see the way some of the numbers look when you adjust for size of population. The United States doesn't come close to leading the world in this death statistic:
Coronavirus deaths per million population, as of May 19:
Belgium: 786
Spain: 593
Italy: 529
United Kingdom: 513
France: 433
Netherlands: 334
Ireland: 317
United States: 278
Canada: 157
Germany: 98
South Korea: 5
New Zealand: 4
When you make this obvious statistical adjustment, we aren't leading the world in deaths. It's sheer dumbness, and it's propaganda, to keep pimping the unadjusted ranking, just as it was when Donald J. Trump played the same game with tests.

For the record, we don't lead the world in tests either. On deaths, we currently rank 13th in the world, including some smaller nations.

On tests, we currently rank 30th. Trump was conning us, day after day, when he kept saying different. (Cable channels canceled their programs to let him con the public day after day on the air)

This is just extremely basic statistical blocking and tackling. That said, our intellectual infrastructure is extremely sad.

It's been this way for decades now. We run on the fuel called Dumb.

46 comments:

  1. There are some contests you don't want to win.

    It would be best if we had 0 deaths. Failing that, we should have as few as possible. Trump shouldn't be bragging about deaths and we shouldn't be using deaths to attack him either. These are real people, not statistics. Each one is a person who wanted to stay alive and who will be missed by friends, relatives and loved ones.

    Somerby needs to find another hobby.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These are real people, not statistics.

      How about we just concede that you’re the only person to understand that there were once living human beings behind the cold, heartless statistics?

      Then — if it’s OK with you — we can move on to discuss the the deadly combination of stupidity, ideology, and incompetence on the part of the person responsible for those statistics.

      Delete
    2. Somerby has no empathy. That's why he misses the point so often when it comes to discussing reporters' work.

      Delete
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  2. "They all said that we lead the world in deaths."

    It depends on the meaning "we", dear Bob.

    Indeed, several states of the union -- specifically those controlled by your liberal zombie cult, starting with NY, NJ, CT -- lead the world in deaths.

    Yes, indeed, several of 'your' liberal states are far worse, in terms on the number of deaths per million, than any other government-controlled area in the world.

    Something for you to think about, dear Bob.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is nothing to think about asshole.
      Also just because NY NJ and Ct have Democratic administrations there is absolutly no connection to the numbers of victims of this GLOBAL pandemic.
      IF BOB is not dead and his staff running this fucking site maybe he should stop attacking our TRIBE for shit reporting and start moderating his fucking own site for schmucks like DAVE and Mao.
      Signed Michael Heit from New York City.'
      PS Hey Mao dont be a pussy, lets know who you really are.

      Delete
  3. "our intellectual infrastructure is extremely sad.

    It's been this way for decades now. We run on the fuel called Dumb."

    Somerby runs on a fuel called spite. He needs to stop using death reporting as a cudgel against Rachel and Brian. It makes him seem heartless. The reporters have to print these figures, but they aren't making this into a comparative game the way Trump has done, and liberals shouldn't be participating in such a game either. For Somerby to take it a step further as use this accounting to attack reporters he dislikes, shows callous disregard for the humanity represented by each number.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It’s no more TDH’s job to refrain from “callous disregard for … humanity” than it is for reporters to bungle their reporting on the statistics of the current Zombie Apocalypse.

      Reporters should get their reporting straight, independent of what Trump does.

      And TDH should metaphorically kick those reporters in the ass when they fail to do so, independent of your whining.

      Delete
    2. Talking about total number of deaths is a more effective way of describing the scale of Trump’s failure. Using death rate vs total deaths doesn’t show the full scale of the problem, and it isn’t really misleading, so there’s nothing for reporters to “get straight.”

      Delete
    3. Somerby admitted that the numbers reported were accurate. They did their job.

      Delete
    4. Talking about total number of deaths is a more effective way of describing the scale of Trump’s failure.

      Only if you’re an ignoramus, Anonymous Ignoramus @7:03P. The death rate allows for an apples-to-apples comparison that illustrates the abysmal failure of Trump’s response as compared to that of countries both larger (China) and smaller (South Korea). Across the board, prompt action guided by science is what makes the difference.

      Using death rate vs total deaths doesn’t show the full scale of the problem

      Using the death rate by itself doesn’t show the “full scale of the problem” to the innumerate. But nothing says reporters can’t use both.

      and it isn’t really misleading, so there’s nothing for reporters to “get straight.”

      Only to ignoramuses, Anonymous Ignoramus @7:03P, only to ignoramuses.

      Delete
    5. Somerby admitted that the numbers reported were accurate. They did their job.

      Ever been misled by an accurate statistic, Anonymous Ignoramus @7:42P? Or are you just trolling me with this bit of stupid?

      Delete
    6. "Ever been misled by an accurate statistic,"

      No, because I deal with numbers for a living. Somerby's insistence that the death rate and not the total deaths be reported is just a choice. The reporter made a different choice. Which you use depends on your purposes.

      Today Kevin Drum joins in with graphs:

      "Our death total of 90,000 sounds bad, but it’s mostly because we’re a big country. If you look at COVID-19 deaths per capita, as you should, we’re about average among developed Western countries."

      This may be true, but if you are a large country, more people die even if the rate of death is the same or smaller than those less populous countries. Because more people are being affected, there is a great responsibility to address the crisis competently, because many more lives are at stake.

      All the graph manipulation in Kevin Drum's toolbox won't erase the FACT that 90,000 people have died in the USA, including a great many preventable deaths, deaths that shouldn't have happened.

      Why would someone want to minimize the appearance of all those deaths? I don't know -- perhaps because Dear Leader is running for re-election? Reporting the death rate instead of total deaths makes Trump's incompetence seem less than it is. Further, each of the people contributing to that total deserves to be acknowledged. These are real people dying, not bars on a graph.

      Now you can pretend that this is about statistics and that statistical best practice is to use the rate instead of total deaths. That isn't true. It depends on your motives for creating the graph, what you are trying to convey. What is Somerby trying to convey by minimizing the deaths on Trump's watch? You tell me.

      Delete
    7. I deal with numbers for a living

      Oh, please. Pull the other one. So does the checkout clerk at Walmart

      Somerby's insistence that the death rate and not the total deaths be reported is just a choice.

      I sure hope you’re good at numbers, ‘cause you’re an utter failure at words. Where does TDH “insist” that the death rate be reported to the exclusion of death totals? Hint: he doesn’t.

      All the graph manipulation in Kevin Drum's toolbox won't erase the FACT that 90,000 people have died in the USA, including a great many preventable deaths, deaths that shouldn't have happened.

      Yeah, as opposed to all those great many preventable deaths that should have happened. Look, you’ve got yourself all worked up for a fight for which you have no opponent.

      Further, each of the people contributing to that total deserves to be acknowledged. These are real people dying, not bars on a graph.

      I get it. You’re the only one concerned about each and everyone of those real, dead people. Slow clap from me.

      Now you can pretend that this is about statistics and that statistical best practice is to use the rate instead of total deaths. That isn't true. It depends on your motives for creating the graph, what you are trying to convey.

      I don’t have to pretend that this is about statistics. It simply is about statistics, and yes, in most cases you have to normalize your data to make sensible comparisons. And the best way to understand data never depends on motive. I’d think someone who deals with numbers for a living would understand that.

      What is Somerby trying to convey by minimizing the deaths on Trump's watch? You tell me.

      If I’ve told you once,….

      TDH is not minimizing Trump’s death count. He’s objecting to reporters’ misleading claims.

      Let me turn this around. What are you trying to convey by mischaracterizing TDH’s criticisms?

      Delete
  4. “The United States is much larger than the other currently relevant nations.”

    It’s good to know that the nine other countries in the list of top ten most populous nations are not “currently relevant”, because those other countries have far fewer cumulative deaths and death rates than the US.

    If China had had our death rate of 278 per million, they would have registered 400,132 deaths rather than their actual total of 4,634. But since they are no longer “relative”, we’re OK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Currently relevant" to the discussion of how misleading it is to discuss cumulative death totals and not deaths per capita.

      Delete
    2. Yes, when you define them as not relevant to the current discussion, it’s amazing how that supports your argument.

      Delete
    3. Can you not understand what TDH's "current discussion" is or do you just not want to? Here's a hint: China's death rate is highly relevant to other important discussions, but just not this one about journalistic malfeasance.

      Delete
    4. The problem is that there is no journalistic malfeasance in this situation. There is a different editorial choice.

      Delete
  5. At one of Trump’s press conferences, where he was touting the US as number one in testing, reporter Weijia Jiang asked Trump why it mattered. Her point was, are we doing enough here to combat the virus?

    Somerby didn’t like Jiang’s question because she didn’t try to challenge Trump with statistics.

    I thought it was a valid question.

    Reporters are merely trying to convey the abysmal nature of the response by citing the death toll, rather than the death rate. It’s a large number that is not purely a function of the population.

    It also serves to humanize the numbers: Death rate of 278? Hmm. What does that mean? Over 90,000 people died.

    That should be troubling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Somerby didn’t like Jiang’s question because she didn’t try to challenge Trump with statistics."

      Presumably, Somerby didn’t like the question because your liberal bible treats any doubt in usefulness of testing as anathema.

      Only a non-zombie infidel could ask "first in testing? sure, fine, but so what, what does it matter?".

      Delete
    2. You have identified the essential characteristic of the conman that Trump exhibits:
      He was touting the US as number one in testing, only to call the whole idea of testing into question later.

      By being on all sides of the issue, he can never be wrong.

      Delete
    3. Sure, dembot. Everyone outside your zombie cult is a conmyn. That's the first commandment of your zombie bible.

      Delete
    4. "By being on all sides of the issue, he can never be wrong."

      You're mis-underestimating how big of a failure Trump is. Remember, this is a guy who went bankrupt running a casino.

      Delete
  6. Let's compare the motives for the two types of exaggeration. Trump compares total number of tests in order to
    1. Make himself look good
    2. Make the US look good
    3. Encourage the many people who are working hard to get more testing.

    Many in the media compare total number of (reported) deaths in order to
    1. Make Trump look bad
    2. Make the US look bad
    3. Focus on bad news. "If it bleeds, it leads."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump has not been encouraging people to get tested. He routinely says the tests are useless (you can take a test and get the virus 10 minutes later, so what good is a test?). He avoids getting tested himself, setting a bad example. He did very little to obtain tests and prepare the nation for widespread testing and he still doesn't understand how to use testing strategically to track and quarantine in order to control the virus.

      People in the media are pointing out Trump's failures in order to motivate him to do better. People are scared and desperate and they want to survive. They cannot protect themselves alone, so they are calling for government action by complaining that too little has been done and more needs to happen. Trump, of course, doesn't listen.

      Delete
    2. 1. He doesn’t look good. Trump is perfectly capable of making himself look bad without anyone’s help.
      2. The US doesn’t look good. With Trump at its helm, we are an international laughing stock. The world pities us.
      3. Trump hasn’t encouraged anyone. Far from it. He has thwarted states’ attempts to help their people, mocked certain states for their lockdown efforts, etc.

      Reporters in this case are just exposing the sad truth.

      Delete
  7. "This is just extremely basic statistical blocking and tackling."

    The numbers don't know what they are describing. Making these kinds of adjustments isn't part of statistics -- it is part of thinking about what the numbers mean, what they are measuring.

    This wouldn't be taught in a statistics class. It would be taught in a research methods class. There isn't time in a statistics class to cover all the ways that numbers can be misused by the inept. That isn't the content of such a course.

    There is no situation where you would automatically make such an adjustment as a routine statistical procedure. You do it because you know that the numbers are meaningless for comparison purposes in the situation you are attempting to describe or measure quantitatively -- you do it to avoid misleading readers of a report or paper. You don't do it because it is required in order to calculate means, standard deviations, or perform ANOVAs or t-tests. It is part of public health or demographics or reporting. Statistics is a tool. The person using the tool is the workman who has a purpose in mind. The numbers are used to achieve the purpose.

    But Somerby thinks knowledge is bunk and expertise is suspect. He doesn't believe in professors and he doesn't like reporters or anyone attempting to convey knowledge. If he wants to avoid this kind of mistake, a statistics class isn't going to help because it teaches how to calculate statistics but not how to use them.

    ReplyDelete
  8. While we are 13th compared to the 12 ahead of us. The United Nations, for example, recognizes 251 countries and territories. 1 The United States, however, officially recognizes fewer than 200 nations. 2 Ultimately, the best answer is that there are 196 countries in the world. This is a rather low bar despite a more accurate description of where we fall. We would have had far fewer deaths per million if we had been better prepared

    ReplyDelete
  9. If I were to point to a country that had a death rate of 1,209, you’d say “wow, that’s really bad. It’s like 4 times worse than the US.”

    Then if I told you that the actual number of deaths in that country was 41, that the county’s population was 33,923, and its name was San Marino, would that change your initial assessment?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. San Marino, eh? Been there, nice town.

      Our assessment would be that dembots get desperate.

      And yet still fewer deaths/million than the state ruled by Mario's son.

      Delete
    2. COVID-a-lago is driving Mao around the bend.
      He's so worked-up, he's having trouble pretending he doesn't work for the establishment.

      It's like watching a slow-motion train crash. You can't look away.

      Delete
  10. The other big countries aren't doing as bad as we are. The Daily Howler has his jaws locked into his squeamish liberal prey and won't open his mouth to discuss it with you. Folks! Tribal nature something something.

    ReplyDelete
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  12. "At a White House event, Trump tried to fearmonger about guns by claiming that farmers need guns to protect their potatoes in Virginia."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Potatoes, eh? Nice soros-dembottery, dembot.

      "Tobacco, once the basis of the Virginia economy, has been replaced by livestock and livestock products as the state's most valuable source of agricultural income. Livestock products now generate more than 2/3 of the state's total agricultural receipts.

      In terms of revenue generated Virginia's top five agricultural products are broilers (young chickens), beef cattle and calves, dairy products, greenhouse and nursery products, and turkeys."
      https://www.netstate.com/economy/va_economy.htm

      Delete
    2. You didn't explain why you need a gun to protect any of this.

      We already know that Virginia has agriculture.

      Delete
    3. You figure it out, einstein.

      Delete
  13. "President Trump said the United States having the most coronavirus cases in the world is “a badge of honor,” CNN reports.

    Said Trump: “I don’t look at that as a bad thing. I look at that, in a certain respect, as being a good thing. Because it means our testing is much better.”"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whoa. It's amazing that liberal Goebbels at CNN has managed to quote an out-of-context snippet correctly.

      "By the way, you know, when you say that we lead in cases, that's because we have more testing than anybody else," the president said at the White House.

      "When we have a lot of cases, I don't look at that as a bad thing. I look at that in a certain respect as being a good thing, because it means our testing is much better. So, if we were testing a million people instead of 14 million people, it would have far fewer cases, right?

      "So, I view it as a badge of honour. Really, it's a badge of honour," Trump said"

      Delete
    2. Mao,
      Which one of Donald J. Trump's six bankruptcies is your favorite, and why?

      Delete
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