Simply put, we aren't up to this task!

TUESDAY, MAY 12, 2020

The Washington Post tries to correct Donald Trump's latest large groaner:
Friend, have you ever tried approaching the news with an anthropological eye?

If you have, you may have noticed what we notice most days. As a matter of basic anthropology, we human beings simply weren't built for this task.

On the most obvious levels, we seem to lack the intellectual capacity fo even the simplest assignments. Consider the question Trump was asked at yesterday's non-daily non-briefing.

The correspondent who asked the question is being hailed for her courage and for her brilliance. That said, her question went like this:
REPORTER (5/11/20): You’ve said many times that the U.S. is doing far better than any other country when it comes to testing.

TRUMP: Yes.

REPORTER: Why does that matter? Why is this a global competition to you, if every day Americans are still losing their lives and we’re still seeing more cases every day?
The question makes a type of sense, though only on a somewhat meta or "philosophical" level. That said, the question leaves a wildly inaccurate premise unchallenged.

Is it true that the U.S. is "doing far better than any other country when it comes to testing?" Putting it a different way, is the U.S. doing better than everyone else at all?

It isn't obvious how you should measure such things, but rather plainly, the answer to those questions seems to be no. That said, consider what happened when the Washington Post decided to tackle this question.

This morning, the Post attempted to tackle this question in a front-page report. Four reporters shared the byline. Sadly, the work they produced was straight outta second grade.

Sad! As noted, the report appears on the Post's front page. Online, the headline says this:
Trump claims U.S. outpaces world in coronavirus testing, but numbers tell different story
The Post was going to tackle the numbers! The Post was going to tackle the president's claim that we outpace the world in testing!

What resulted was a sad, hapless mess. After a bit of piddling around, the four reporters' nugget presentation went like this:
FOUR REPORTERS (5/12/20): The United States as of Sunday had completed nearly 9 million coronavirus tests, according to the Covid Tracking Project. While an enormous number, the figure is equivalent to just 2.74 percent of the U.S. population and does not give a full representation of the virus’s reach within American society.

There are far higher levels of per-capita testing in other parts of the world. In tiny Iceland, the figure is an extraordinary 15.4 percent, but that amounts to about 54,000 tests across a population of 352,000 people.

Yet major industrialized economies with large outbreaks also have fared better in testing
than the United States: Italy has conducted tests equivalent to 4.31 percent of its population, and Germany is at 3.35 percent. The United States also is still behind its northern neighbor, Canada, where its 1.09 million tests are equivalent to 2.95 percent of the county’s population.
Everything the reporters say in that passage is correct. The problem, and it's a very large problem, lies in what they omit.

Nine million is "an enormous number," the reporters decided to say. But that amounts to just 2.74 percent of the U.S. population, they correctly report. Other countries have tested more!

The problem here involves what doesn't get said about Trump's wildly inaccurate statement. From that passage, a reader may well get the idea that we actually do lead the world in volume of testing, except for the few nations named.

That doesn't come close to being accurate. But in a front-page report which claims to critique Trump's latest wild claim, that's the bogus impression many Post readers will get.

In fact, many countries have tested larger portions of their population than the United States has. The Post never cites a source for its international figures, but their numbers track closely to those shown at this site.

How many countries out-test the U.S.? It isn't just tiny Iceland and those three larger nations. Many countries have out-tested the United States! Some of the numbers look like this:
Coronavirus tests by percentage of population, as of May 12:
Iceland: 15.9%
Luxembourg: 8.8%
Lithuania: 7.1%
Denmark: 5.8%
Portugal: 5.4%
Israel: 5.4%
Spain: 5.3%
Belgium: 5.1%
Estonia: 4.9%
Ireland: 4.3%
Italy: 4.3%
Latvia: 4.2%
New Zealand: 4.1%
Russia: 4.0%
Norway: 3.8%
Switzerland: 3.7%
Austria: 3.7%
Australia: 3.4%
Germany: 3.3%
Canada: 3.0%
Singapore: 3.0%
United States: 2.9%
United Kingdom: 2.8%
Finland: 2.3%
France: 2.1%
Sweden: 1.5%
South Korea: 1.3%
Does it look like we're "outpacing the world" in any way when you look at those numbers? We've left out many other smaller countries which are out-testing us too.

(Example: Bermuda, 7.2%.)

This is the metric the Post chose to use in today's front-page report. But in a typical case of statistical bungling, the Post completely failed to convey the extent to which Trump's latest wild claim is wildly and crazily wrong.

From there, the four reporters moved on to offer the assessment shown below. We'd call this bungled too:
FOUR REPORTERS (continuing directly): While Trump moves to increase testing, the United States continues to be, by far, the world’s coronavirus hot spot. There are now 1.34 million confirmed cases, more than the sum of cases in the next six countries—Spain, the United Kingdom, Russia, Italy, France and Germany. U.S. deaths passed 80,000 on Monday.
Does the United States "continue to be, by far, the world’s coronavirus hot spot?" Is the United States the world's hot spot at all? It all depends on the metric you choose to report.

In that passage, the four reporters chose to use the metric of "confirmed cases," a term which may mean different things, or relate to different realities, in different countries. How about if they had chosen a different metric—the metric of "deaths?"

There are problems with that metric too. At present, there is no problem-free metric. That said:

Below, you see the current totals for the United States and the other countries the Post named, excluding Russia. (Russia's statistical reporting seems a bit squirrelly.) In this graphic, we're comparing reported U.S. deaths to reported deaths in five European nations whose total population virtually matches that of the U.S.:
Deaths by coronavirus, as of May 12:
United States: 81,911
Spain, United Kingdom, Italy, France and Germany: 124,088
The total population of those five nations basically matches that of the United States. If we choose the metric of deaths, is the U.S. "the world’s coronavirus hot spot by far?" Is it "the world's hot spot" at all?

In the past year, we've suggested that you try viewing the world through a new, different lens. We've suggested that you abandon the traditional lens according to which "man (sic) is the rational animal."

Instead, we've suggested that you test-drive a lens according to which man (sic} is the tribal, script-reading and bungling animal. You'll routinely see this premise supported when you watch high-level journalists try to work with statistics, data, numbers—in truth, with any type of information at all.

These upper-end journalists today! They tend to have a very hard time adjusting for inflation. They tend to have a very hard time adjusting for population size.

They constantly bungle basic test scores. They persistently bungled the data from Flint concerning levels of lead exposure.

Don't even imagine that creatures like these will be able to unpack our hopelessly complex economic statistics. As a species, we simply weren't engineered to accomplish such tasks.

This morning, everyone is hailing a question which reinforced the president's latest ridiculous howler. The Post attempted to challenge the howler—attempted that task, and failed.

Donald Trump's endless, over-sized howlers constitute a matter of national security. That said, our journalists simply aren't to the task of reporting this fact to the public.

Go ahead—try that new lens. Many journalists went to the finest schools, but look at the product they hand us!

37 comments:

  1. "The question makes a type of sense, though only on a somewhat meta or "philosophical" level. "

    I disagree. The question speaks to Trump's lack of empathy for the individual human beings who are losing their lives, their families and friends who mourn them.

    It is repulsive that Trump would consider dealing with loss of life as if it were a competition with other nations.

    Somerby, of course, goes on to complain that the reporter doesn't call Trump out on the accuracy of his claim. As if it matters whether we are 1st or 39th among nations, buying into Trump's characterization of this as a contest that someone can win or lose.

    When a reporter calls Trump out on one of his howlers, we are the losers, not Trump. Somerby behaves as if recounting numbers is all that reporters should do, accurately. He misses entirely that which makes us human, empathy for the sick and the dying. Empathy for the fear experienced by the living. Empathy for the distorted lives we have been forced into by this virus, and the lack of leadership at the top. These are the things reporters should be reporting. Not a meaningless game of gotcha, while Somerby complains that human reporters never get things right.

    ReplyDelete
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  2. "They constantly bungle basic test scores. They persistently bungled the data from Flint concerning levels of lead exposure.

    Don't even imagine that creatures like these will be able to unpack our hopelessly complex economic statistics. As a species, we simply weren't engineered to accomplish such tasks."

    Anyone who wants these specifics can read a technical publication, written by an expert in that field. The people who read newspapers want to know the significance of the numbers, not the numbers themselves.

    Are our kids doing OK in school? Is the water in Flint safe to drink? Is it safe to come out of our houses yet? Who is dying from the virus and am I potentially one of that group? How do you keep your kids from driving you nuts during lockdown?

    Not are these numbers adjusted for inflation or per capita or stratified by race? Geeks care about that and lately Somerby has become King Geek.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Trump presents facts and figures that make his administration look as good as possible. All politicians do this. Trump's enemies present facts and figures that make his administration look as bad as possible. That's also normal politics.

    What's different is that the media, who are supposed to be objective, are also presenting facts and figures that make Trump's administration look as bad as possible. The media are not a objective. They're Trump's enemies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shut the fuck up, you whining little fascist prick crybaby. So fucking sorry you have to watch your Acting President as he shits the bed every goddam day and then has his 3 year old baby temper tantrums and mental breakdowns when a couple female reporters ask him a question. Embarrassing us in front of the whole fucking world! Enough is enough with this little crybaby. Fucking Nixon never got this bad. You fucking trumpbots wanted him in the big chair and now you got it. Grow the fuck up and stop whining. The press has always had an adversarial role in our democratic society, you liked it when they were looking up Hillary's skirt for 30 fucking years. You never whined like a stuck pig when Secretary Clinton couldn't show her face in public without being badgered about fucking routine daily trivial emails. Not all reporters want to lick his wrinkled balls like OAN and FOX NOOZ.

      Delete
    2. David,
      Thanks for letting us know how the snowflakes on the right are feeling.
      Maybe wearing a Trump "Fuck Your Feelings" t-shirt will make you feel stronger.

      Delete
    3. Poor Hillary.

      Always persecuted by the vast right-wing conspiracy, not to mention the diabolic Russkies and their countless agents. You and your perfect Demigod hubby.

      How sad.

      Delete
    4. Not all media. A lot of media are equally immoral fawning flatterers of Trump.

      Each serves to divide us into two one camps. It's one of the prime elements of divide and conquer, the strategy the powerful have employed to manipulate the weak for millennia.

      Delete
    5. ma0 ma0 * >>> ,!,

      Delete
  4. "The problem, and it's a very large problem, lies in what they omit."

    The problem is, dear Bob, that this whole testing frenzy is bullshit in the first place.

    A bullshit frenzy, manufactured by your zombie cult, and carried out by your zombie media.

    Some people need to be tested, some people need to be tested multiple times (perhaps every week or even every day), and most people - a vast majority of them - don't need to be tested at all.

    What are the testing ratios in NYC vs the state of Montana? And if it's much higher in NYC (as I suspect), does it mean that NYC is doing great? I don't think so, dear Bob.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How is testing more important than the HUGE tax break Trump gave to the Establishment?
      It's not if,like Mao, you work for the Establishment.

      Delete
  5. If Somerby were on the ball, he would correlate the amount spent on public health with the % tested (relationship should be inverse) and then give us a graph, like Kevin Drum does. The rationale is that in an effective single-payer medical system, costs should be lower but the public should be better able to access tests, and with better health care the number of cases and deaths should both be lower.

    But Somerby is too intent on embarrassing Trump to do any actual thinking and what numbers mean.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Trump supporters are cheering "We're number 22!"

    ReplyDelete
  7. “The total population of those five nations basically matches that of the United States. If we choose the metric of deaths, is the U.S. "the world’s coronavirus hot spot by far?" Is it "the world's hot spot" at all?”

    Fail.

    Choosing a specific metric (cumulative number of deaths) and then lumping 5 random countries’ death totals into a single total to “compare” to the US is not an honest way of attempting to debunk the claim.

    A “hotspot” would be an area where infections are currently increasing at a fairly high rate and number of active cases remains high. The US qualifies under both of these metrics.

    Out of Somerby’s country list, the Per Capita number of new cases in the US is more than 7 times the number in Germany, as an example of the skew.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll smash your face.

      Delete
    2. Yes fail. Yes Bob does not argue in good faith. Those 5 countries may add up to a similar population as the US, but not similar population density. A better comparison would be of US states to countries of similar population and density, which, as it turns out, shows that the US is far worse than any other country. Bob knows this.

      Delete
    3. "A better comparison would be of US states to countries of similar population and density, which, as it turns out, shows that the US is far worse than any other country."

      True dat. Outside of zombie-controlled NY, NJ, CT, and a few more, the US of A is doing great. No surprise there.

      Delete
  8. “The question makes a type of sense, though only on a somewhat meta or "philosophical" level. That said, the question leaves a wildly inaccurate premise unchallenged.

    Is it true that the U.S. is "doing far better than any other country when it comes to testing?" Putting it a different way, is the U.S. doing better than everyone else at all?”

    The numbers that Somerby cites are presumably from worldometer. The data there shows cumulative number of tests since the start of testing.

    It does not show number of tests per day, which is one of the numbers Trump cited in his opening remarks (300,000 per day currently).

    Perhaps the US is doing better than other countries in that regard?

    Ultimately, Jiang (the “REPORTER”) asked a different question than the one Somerby wished she had asked. This means, for him, that Jiang failed the intellectual challenge.

    But since the number of tests per day was touted by Trump, and it may actually be “number one in the world”, Jiang asked a different question, essentially:

    Why should it matter whether we’re number one in testing, when what matters is whether it is properly helping people at home?

    That is an important question in its own right, and led to Trump abruptly ending the news conference.

    Pretty effective question, it seems.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For months Trump's enemies have faulted Trump by showing how the US compares unfavorably to other countries in some statistic related to coronavirus. When Trump defends himself and the US by presenting a statistic whereby the US does better than other countries, such comparisons suddenly become improper, according to Trump's enemies.

      Delete
    2. For months Donald J Chickenshit, Acting President, took two hours of prime time cable, day in and day out, to look the American people in the eye and lie his fucking ass off. Day in and day out. Go fuck yourself, davie, you fascist prick. Hey can you direct me to one of Jared's drive thru testing setups? I think I need to be tested, asshole.

      Delete
    3. mm - go to Menlo Medical Clinic in Menlo Park, CA - 321 Middlefield The drive thru test site in in the parking lot of my doctor's office building.

      Delete
    4. Fuck you, David, you fascist prick. Jared the wonderboy had fuck all to do with that. I want the Walmart parking lots that was promised several months ago, jackass.

      Delete
    5. David I live in CA, the only tests regularly available are the antibody tests that are plagued with unreliability. They also only tell you that you had Covid-19, this is of limited usefulness. Of the many people I know that have had symptoms, none are able to get the test for active infections. CA has one of the lowest testing rates in the country.

      When "Trump defends himself and the US by presenting a statistic whereby the US does better than other countries" the problem is that Trump is spreading misinformation to shed his responsibility for the Covid-19 disaster that is directly his failure. Trump is not defending, he is falsely trying to show dominance. We need the good will of other countries. There are no statistics where the US does better than other countries.

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    ReplyDelete
  11. As soon as you get a test you are vulnerable to infection one minute after. How many tests have been performed might be the dumbest matrix of any by which to evaluate a response. So of course its' the one the Trump deranged idiots chose to highlight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you test someone and they are positive, you can isolate them immediately so they don't go on spreading it to others. You can also track down the people that person has interacted with and tell them to stop going out too. That prevents geometric spread.

      Testing enables you to shut down the virus by limiting its spread. It isn't meant to be reassuring to those who test negative. That is just Trump's perspective -- he gets tested so he knows he is negative and he tests others so he knows they won't infect him. That isn't what the testing is for.

      The number of tests is a rough estimate of how well a location is controlling the virus, but you are right that the number of tests isn't important -- it is the quarantining and contact tracing that matters. If you don't have trained public health workers doing that, you are testing for nothing.

      Since there is no national plan in place, it isn't surprising that people don't understand what the testing is for or how to implement testing that will enable communities to open up without endangering themselves.

      Trump cannot communicate this to the people because he doesn't understand it himself.

      Delete
    2. Implementing it effectively will depend on competent governors. Blue states are in trouble.

      Delete
    3. @7:00 Admiral Giroir explained this point at a Trump presser a few weeks ago.

      Delete
    4. Trump probably should have listened to Admiral Giroir's explanation, instead of day-dreaming about fucking his own daughter.

      Delete
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  16. After being in relationship with my husband for years, he broke up with me. I did everything within my reach to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so badly because of the love I had for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back , I had no choice than to try it. I messaged the spell caster, and he assured me there was no problem and that everything will be okay before three days. He cast the spell and surprisingly on the second day, my husband called me. I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that had happened, That He wanted me to return to him. He also said he loved me so much. I was so happy and went to him that was how we started living together happily again, Contact Dr kogi Today the great Spell caster that can help you with any relationship issues, You can add him up on WhatsApp +2348054405058        or email Via drkogispellcaster@gmail.com 
    Interesting to know that Dr Kogi also have solutions to problems like 
    1) Love Spells2) Promotion at work place3) Divorce Spells4) Child bearing5) Lottery spells6) Breakup Spells7) Banish a past Lover
    Email DR via drkogispellcaster@gmail.com

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  17. My life was destroyed when my husband sent me packing, after 13 years we have been together. I was lost and helpless after trying so many ways to my husband back to me. One day at work, I was distracted, not knowing that my boss called me, so he sat and asked me what it was all about, I told him and he smiled and said it was no problem. I never understood what he meant by it was no problem getting back my husband, he said he used a spell to get back his wife when she left him for another man, and now they are together till date and initially I was shocked hearing something from my boss. He gave me an email address of the LORD NOBEL which helped him get his wife back, I never believed that this would work, but I had no choice coming into contact with the sayings that I get done, and he asked for my information and that my husband was able to propose to throw him the spell and I sent him the details, but after two days, my mother called me that my husband was pleading that he wants me back, I never believed, because it was just a dream and I had to rush off to my mother's place and to my greatest surprise, was kneeling my husband beg me for forgiveness that he wants me and the child back home, when I gave LORD NOBEL a conversation regarding sudden change of my husband and he made clear to me that my husband will love me until the end of the world, that he will never leave for another woman. Now me and my husband is back together and started doing funny things he has not done before, he makes me happy and do what it is supposed to do as a man without nagging. Please if you need help of any kind need, please contact LORD NOBEL for help. His email is allmightbazulartemple@gmail.com or https://allmightbazulartem.wixsite.com/ whatsap +2347051758952



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