Rolling average rises again!

THURSDAY, JULY 23, 2020

Mortality rate, why is thy sting?:
The nation with the best mortality rate keeps racking up more deaths!

We won't be tracking this every day. But after yesterday's "confirmed deaths" were recorded, the 7-day rolling average had rolled upward again:
Daily deaths from coronavirus
Rolling 7-day average, nationwide

July 9-July 15: 696.9
July 10-July 16: 704.1
July 11-July 17: 720.4
July 12-July 18: 742.4
July 13-July 19: 747.4
July 14-July 20: 763.0
July 15-July 21: 799.7
July 16-July 22: 830.7
In the course of a week, our daily average has gone from just below 700 deaths per day to 830. Three weeks ago, right before the July 4 weekend, the average stood at 546.3 (June 26-July 2).

(Update: We've changed our original average for July 16-July 22. The Post has changed its original number for July 22.)

It's amazing to see this rapid increase in deaths from the country with the best mortality rate in the world! And yes, that's what Trump said.

In our world, it remains a point of amazement that Donald J. Trump could claim we have the best mortality rate, as he did four days ago in a major Sunday interview, without any major news org showing the public these numbers:
Total coronavirus deaths through July 23, per million population
United States: 443
Canada: 235
Germany: 110
Austria: 79
Norway: 47
Japan: 8
South Korea: 6
Australia: 5
New Zealand 4
Taiwan: 0.3
Seriously though, folks. Does it look like we have the best mortality rate, given what a reasonable person would think that term must mean?

On Sunday, Trump said we have the best mortality rate in the world. In response to that remarkable claim, no one has shown the public those data—no one from Chris Wallace on down.

It's exactly as we've long told you. Information plays virtually no role in our public discourse.

Our discourse is Storyline all the way down. Basic facts barely exist in the world of our upper-end press corps.

It's Storyline and Whatever Trump Said. That's all they really know.

10 comments:

  1. If the public doesn't know by now that Trump is lying about covid deaths, then nothing Wallace or anyone else shows them is going to convince them.

    Lack of accurate information is not the cause of belief in conspiracy theories about covid.

    ReplyDelete
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  2. "And the group fueling Biden’s polling surge is seniors and white voters with college degrees."

    Does Somerby's continual criticism of journalists and other people with college degrees tend to help or hurt Biden's campaign?

    Does Somerby think that if Fauci were giving the covid briefings the info might be more accurate? If so, does his continual criticism of those with expertise help or hurt the possibility of having someone with actual knowledge give such briefings?

    Today, Somerby is criticizing Professor Goff, without a fair presentation of his statements and ideas first. His tone is one of mockery and he refers to disappointed and despairing anthropologists. Does this kind of thing tend to help or hurt Biden's campaign? Does it help Trump get re-elected when Somerby mocks black professors? Or is this more "owning the libs" which warms the heart of conservatives, tossing them red meat so they will stick with Trump?

    ReplyDelete
  3. It would be very strange if daily deaths went up and the rolling average did not. I am glad that Somerby is making sure these numbers behave the way they should.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not strange at all. If daily deaths on some interval you're averaging over start high, drop, and then move up again, then at some point, the tail of the rolling average will move off the initial highs and into the lows between the peaks. The rolling average could drop as it stops incorporating the initial highs and starts incorporating lows, even as it counts new increases.

      Delete
    2. 4:58 put another way:

      No shit, Somerby.

      It is significant that deaths are increasing.

      It is not significant that the trend of rolling averages is increasing as daily deaths are increasing.

      It is not significant that during a trend of increasing deaths the rolling average could drop due to some aberrant lows.

      There is nothing new about Trump's claims being counter-factual. No one besides Trumpers think that we have the best mortality rate, no one is unaware that we are in the midst of a spike in deaths. Somerby may as well be amazed that toilets flush.

      Delete
  4. Why does Somerby seem to think that only Wallace can contradict Trump? Lots of people everywhere have said that Trump lies about this stuff. Don't their efforts matter?

    ReplyDelete
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