THE ROLE OF MISTAKEN BELIEF: Many people believe Donald Trump!

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2020

But who do we liberals believe?:  What did Donald Trump think or believe, and when did he think or believe it?

More specifically, what did he believe about the risks associated with the virus?

A standard answer came into being after release of the first excerpts from Bob Woodward's new book. Near the start of his new column, Paul Krugman presents that account:

KRUGMAN (9/15/20): [C]onsider the large (and illegal) indoor rally Trump held Sunday in Nevada.

Before the release of Bob Woodward’s new book, you might have argued that Trump doesn’t believe the science and didn’t realize that his event might well sicken and kill many people. But we now know that he’s well aware of the risks, and has been all along. He just doesn’t care.

Do we "now know" that Trump "is well aware of the risks" to the people who attend his rallies? Do we now know that he "just doesn’t care?" 

We'd say that we do know those things—but also that we've known those things for a long time. We aren't sure that we could deduce those facts from Trump's remarks to Woodward back on February 7.

On that day, Trump told Woodward that the virus was five times as deadly as even the most strenuous flu. The heroic commander told the scribe that the virus "is deadly stuff."

(In fairness, he also said this—he said he thought that President Xi was "going to have it in good shape.") 

Did Trump believe the things he said to Woodward when he said them? If he did, what might this crazy, disordered person have come to believe the next day?

Does a disordered person like Donald J. Trump ever really "believe" or "know" anything at all, in any conventional sense? And since he revels in misstatement, how can the rest of us actually know what the commander believes?

How can we actually know what he thinks? This morning, we give you an answer.

At his Nevada rally this past Sunday night, did Trump believe that people in the crowd could contract the virus and die? It seems fairly clear that he did believe that! As everyone with a TV machine has seen, he made these remarks to a local reporter in the aftermath of the event:

SAUNDERS (9/14/20): Trump said in his interview with the [Las Vegas] Review-Journal that he is not afraid of getting the coronavirus from speaking at the indoor rally.

“I’m on a stage and it’s very far away,” Trump said. “And so I’m not at all concerned.”

“I’m more concerned about how close you are, to be honest,” Trump told a Review-Journal reporter who thought she was socially distanced.

Later, when she told Trump she had tested negative earlier in the day, Trump mugged that he felt “100 percent better.”

Assuming he wasn't joking, Trump revealed what he thinks and believes in that real-time exchange. 

He said he thinks he was safe that night because he was at a substantial remove from the madding crowd. Plainly, this means that his supporters could contract the virus, and die, if they were part of that crowd.

Elsewhere in this morning's Times, Annie Karni lays out the obvious logic of Trump's unguarded remarks. That said, it's long been obvious that Donald J. Trump believes that the virus is deadly. 

We didn't need any excerpts from Woodward's book to say we "now knew" this fact. We've known that fact for a long time, based on the commander's astonishing conduct.

As has been widely reported, the commander has only interacted with other people after they've been tested for the virus. The obvious meaning of that procedure has always been perfectly clear.

For that reason, something else has long been clear. It's long been clear, if poorly explained, that the commander is willing to let his supporters get sick and die in service to his pursuit of re-election. 

That even holds for the top supporters who crowded onto the White House lawn to hear the commander's masterful speech during the GOP convention. Granted, that was an outdoor event, but those believers sat together, crammed cheek to jowl, for something like three hours.

What else have we long known from behavior like this? Presumably, we've known know that the commander is some version of a sociopath—or at least, we've known he behaves in precisely the ways a sociopath typically would.

That said, we liberals rarely hear such matters discussed by the people we trust. Our journalists have agreed that such ruminations aren't fit for human ears. 

Alas! We're all at the mercy of the sources we trust in all such public discussion. This is also true when it comes to the promulgation of false and mistaken belief.

Why in the world would Republican poobahs have sat on the White House lawn that night to hear the commander's speech? On Sunday, why did thousands of people crowd into that Nevada hall at risk of illness and death?

Tomorrow, we'll return to the man who told CNN's Jim Acosta that Covid-19 is a hoax designed to bring down the U.S. For background, see yesterday's report.

That particular Trump supporter seems to trust and believe the QAnon crowd. His false and mistaken belief may yet lead to his death.

False and mistaken belief is amazingly widespread these days; it's been so for many years. At present, some of our nation's mistaken belief may even be coming to these shores straight outta Vladimir Putin! 

That said, our own tribe is drenched in mistaken belief too. It's all a matter of who we tend to trust and believe.

Our tribe has been running on mistaken fuel too? We'll start to detail that state of affairs by the end of the week.

Tomorrow: Powers assesses Acosta's third respondent: 

"None of it makes sense."


35 comments:

  1. "But who do we liberals believe?"

    What are you talking about, dear Bob? You're in a cult. 'nuff said.

    "Plainly, this means that his supporters could contract the virus, and die, if they were part of that crowd."

    Any one of us can die at any moment, dear Bob.

    People, humyn beings, adults, can decide for themselves what risk they are willing to take: to ride a motorcycle, or fly a hang glider, or go to a rally.

    Or, for that matter, to do what you and your fellow brain-dead liberal zombie do: hide in a basement wearing a hazmat suit, typing, non-stop, Orange Man Bad.

    That's your choice, dear Bob. Good luck.

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  2. "he behaves in precisely the ways a sociopath typically would"

    There is no typical behavior for a sociopath. Sociopaths who grow up in supportive environments behave like normal people. Sociopaths who grow up in abusive or dysfunctional environments can behave like serial killers or con artists.

    Somerby again displays his ignorance about psychology and psychiatry. When it comes to a subject like physics, Somerby gets upset when authors tread on his own understandings of complexities of that field. But he has no hesitation about saying ignorant and incorrect things in the field that studies mind, brain and behavior. That makes him not only a spreader of misinformation, but a huge asshole.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear dembot, it shouldn't take an Einstein to figure out that dear Bob is using "sociopath" as a swear word. Like, say, the word 'bastard'.

      When dear Bob is saying that Our Beloved Commander is 'a sociopath', it simply means that our dear Bob is programmed with strong negative emotions towards Our Beloved Commander. Just like every other liberal.

      Comprende?

      Delete
    2. This is incorrect. Somerby wouldn't keep referring to Dr. Bandy Lee if he meant sociopath as just a swear word.

      Delete
    3. Orange Man is worse than "bad". Orange Man is standard-issue Reagan Republican.
      "bad"? I wish.

      Delete
  3. Herman Cain was the ultimate martyr to the Trump-Cult. If we was white they would probably have already written a Horst Wessel-like song.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here is how the right-wing press responded to Herman Cain's death (from Alex Shepard, The New Republic):

      "Between hawking brain pills, Ben Shapiro made the case that people who wear masks also die. “There are plenty of people dying of this who have been wearing masks and have been being careful,” he said. “So spare me some of the crocodile tears on behalf of people who really are not happy with Herman Cain’s politics.” Within minutes of Cain’s death, the right-wing website The Blaze had collected a series of tweets from people pointing out a simple fact—that the former presidential candidate had died of coronavirus—titled, “Liberals waste absolutely zero time politicizing Herman Cain’s death and blaming Trump.”

      The Washington Examiner’s Byron York, meanwhile, told his readers to “ignore” the fact that Cain had died from Covid-19. “Like everything else these days,” he wrote, Cain’s death was “immediately discussed in a Trump-anti-Trump context.” It would be preferable and more humane, he insisted, to use Cain’s death as “an occasion to ... remember Herman Cain.”

      https://newrepublic.com/article/158728/conservative-media-really-struggling-possibility-trump-killed-herman-cain

      This is how you avoid changing your beliefs in the face of disconfirming evidence:

      1. Point out that wearing a mask doesn't necessarily prevent catching covid.
      2. Attack Democrats for politicizing Cain's death.
      3. Insist that freedom means you have the right to choose death from covid.
      4. Ignore Cain's death from covid by eulogizing him without mentioning how he died.
      5. See Cain's covid-death as a threat to Trumpism and protect Trump at all costs. (Circle the wagons.)

      Bottom line -- no one is talking about Cain as a martyr because that would require admitting that covid is dangerous and masks should be worn.

      Delete
  4. "As has been widely reported, the commander has only interacted with other people after they've been tested for the virus. The obvious meaning of that procedure has always been perfectly clear."

    Somerby takes an inference! He says that this means that Trump understand the dangers of covid-19. Actually, this could be a procedure instituted by the secret service in order to protect the president, that Trump complies with because he has no choice in the matter. It seems most likely that if Trump could evade such a procedure, he would, because it makes him look weak, just as he fears that wearing a mask would undermine his manhood.

    My point is that you cannot conclude anything about Trump's understanding of covid danger from the fact that his visitors are screened.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Somerby typically behaves as if deduction is the only way to reason, ignoring the fact that most people and professions use other methods for reasoning. This is a rare case where he appropriately uses a different method to conclude the most likely truth.

      Delete
  5. Yes, Trump does not care.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "That said, our own tribe is drenched in mistaken belief too. It's all a matter of who we tend to trust and believe."

    There is generally a reason why we invest trust in some and not others. People do not believe for arbitrary reasons. For one thing, before trusting someone, we generally compare what they have said with what other trusted individuals tell us. We are more likely to trust those who have some position of authority or special access to knowledge.

    For Republicans, because they do not believe in expertise and don't recognize the importance of knowledge (such as that held by professors), they have no way to vet an authority, no one to compare an assertion against. Even Fauci and Birx are not authorities to be trusted. The invention of a deep state and conspiracy theories means that the trusted people can no longer be trusted. So they fall back on common sense.

    The problem with relying on common sense is that it tends to be directed by motives both conscious and unconscious. We believe what we want to believe, and what we want to believe makes sense and thus seems more believable. That means that Republicans flock together because they share motives that attract them to that party and its beliefs. And when they compare notes with friends, their friends are also Republicans (because polarization has led to self-segregation) and reinforce their beliefs.

    Democrats are different because they have retained a faith in expertise, technology, knowledge, education, and the press. They have some source outside their own preferences and their circle of friends and family that they can use to test beliefs against. They can look for internal consistency among sources and beliefs to see whether something makes sense. It is easier for them to recognize when they are being conned or engaging in wishful thinking.

    That's why Somerby's continual attacks here on knowledge and knowledge workers is so dangerous. It threatens the ability of people to use diverse sources of information to test ideas. And that's exactly why dictators and authoritarian governments eliminate universities and control the media -- so that they can more easily control what people hear and believe, keeping the populace compliant through thought control.

    Somerby's nihilism is the last thing we need in a time of misinformation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There’s more ideological diversity (and tolerance of it) amongst employees in an Amazon warehouse than in the fields you mention.

      Delete
    2. I can believe that you have worked in an Amazon warehouse, but if you believe this about academia it is clear you have never worked there.

      Delete
    3. It’s not clear that you have either.

      Delete
    4. I would gladly trade you for deadrat. You serve no useful purpose here.

      Delete
    5. I’m in good company.

      You say that almost daily about the blogger.

      Delete
    6. Employees in an Amazon warehouse have little ideology, so your assertion is nonsense, mostly they just want to be able to afford their basic needs. Having said that, "ideological diversity" is not a virtue. Furthermore, working class people are not known for tolerance, owing to the oppressiveness of capitalism.

      Republicans are now trying to apply cancel culture to Netflix because they were conned about the themes of one it's shows. Tolerance? Brother, please. Republicans are some of the least tolerant and diverse people in history.

      I worked in a warehouse when I attended college. The warehouse employees were angry, anxious, and had no ideology, the college kids were obnoxious but much more ideologically diverse and tolerant. Both groups deserve to have their material needs met, this is what progressives fight for.

      Polls and surveys indicate Republicans do believe more false things than Dems.

      If Somerby serves a useful purpose that would be great but there is no evidence indicating such. TDH is a vanity blog where Somerby works out his own mental struggles over losing what little influence he once thought he had.

      Delete
    7. Everyone has political views today. Even the plebeians.

      Working class people are far more likely to be exposed to differing points of than folks in the Ivory Tower industry (long may they prosper).

      Not only do they work with members of varying races and ethnicities, but of various socio-economic backgrounds and levels of education, as a college degree is no longer an automatic door into the white-collar world.

      As for their tolerance they have the most compelling (and necessary) reason in the world to indulge differing political views. They must.

      Another trait that has been described here as a minus, rather than the plus that it is- they rarely harbor a desire for governance via experts, which makes them more flexible to situations where there is tension between two or more worthwhile ideals which requires a component of judgment beyond expertise.

      This sort of conversation always gets uncomfortable in its stereotypes. That said, when you’re accusing those other folks of living in a bubble, attend to the possibility that you may be doing that from under a bell jar.


      Delete
    8. “ If Somerby serves a useful purpose that would be great but there is no evidence indicating such. TDH is a vanity blog where Somerby works out his own mental struggles over losing what little influence he once thought he had.”

      The Anonymices presence here with at-the-ready multi-pixeled posts (often incongruous to what the blogger specifically wrote) utterly belies your sentiments.

      Utterly, bro.

      Delete
    9. Judgement beyond expertise is great. Judgment without expertise is useless and more often than not results in wrong decisions.

      "often incongruous to what the blogger specifically wrote"

      Why should any comment here be consistent with or confine itself to what Somerby wrote?

      When you don't see the connection between two things that someone insists are connected, the fault is most likely yours, not theirs. Insight isn't for the stupid or the excessively literal. Somerby moans that he cannot follow basic primers on complex subjects, and it is his fault, not the writer's if he truly doesn't get the point. There is no law that says that every person must understand everything said about every subject. That applies to you too. But when you don't understand why someone is saying something, you will do better if you ask questions instead of attacking. And that applies to Somerby too.

      Not everything in life can be boiled down into an epigram.

      Delete
    10. Did I make an argument that there is no place for expertise in politics, or no place for academics?

      Did I describe the working class as having no higher concerns than the basic ones of sustenance?

      Have I failed to find the wry humor in a genre that could be typified as Astrophysics for Dummies?

      Have I quarreled with the age-old recognition of the limits of philosophy.

      Am I impervious to irony?

      Why would I ask questions of you about what Somerby writes? I’ve never seen an Anonymouse change their mind via an exchange about some point of contention.

      Why must I pretend that you’re here to be persuaded or to do anything other than to wage counters based upon appeals to some sort of authority, while simultaneously describing your contenders as being concrete and/or useless.




      Delete
  7. So, was this accidental or deliberate? (From Digby's blog)

    "A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons.

    The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee,features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12…

    Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I bet it's deliberate, dear dembot. To watch you zombies huff and puff, and laugh.

      Delete
    2. Shoot yourself in the head, if you really want to see us go nuts.

      Delete
    3. Dream on, dear dembot.

      Delete
  8. I believe science.

    "On a perfunctory visit to California on Monday to meet officials coping with wildfires, Trump assured them, “It’ll start getting cooler. You just watch.”

    “I wish science agreed with you,” replied Wade Crowfoot, California’s secretary for natural resources.

    “OK, well, I don’t think science knows, actually,” Trump smirked.

    ReplyDelete
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  13. hello  everyone i amLAESHAUN HANSON  from Canada but base in Florida , i am here to share my testimony on how Dr harry helped me enlarge my penis size from 4 inches long to 10 inches long in erection with his herbal mixture cream,Some few months back, Life was hard for me. Having sex with my wife was aliterally impossible, because my erections were poor unlike when I was younger, I couldn’t bring myself to have sex with my wife, my sperm was watery which will flow out, it was a terrible situation back then, I had gone to many specialist, subdued myself to many drugs because honestly I needed a home and a normal life, my wife was devastated/disappointed when I confessed to her that all this might be as a result of countless sex and masturbation I engage myself with when I was younger,Now am 35 years old, I felt God was really punishing me now. I am Started going for various counseling in one of our prayer reserved County, when a woman made testimony of how her husband got out of the same situation I was in. I decided to consult the doctor that helped her husband through his website http://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple     and that was it. just as he assured, within the space of 2-3 weeks. Everything became history, It was like God Have blessed me with a second chance, I found myself being Lucky For  I was present when that woman made that testimony, So am telling my own testimony that i am about to become a Dad of a child my wife is carrying. I have also seen others who gave testimonies in relating problems like the one I was in, especially those with
    1.HIV/AIDS CURE
    2.PILE
    3.PENIS ENLARGEMENT CURE
    4.DIABETES 1/2
    5.CANCER
    6.HERPES CURE
    7.ALOPECIA
    8.ALZHEIMER DISEASE
    9.ALS
    10.HPV 1,2/3
    11.STROKE
    12.BREAST BUMS AND ENLARGEMENT PILLS
    13.HEPATITIS A B C
    14.STD DISEASE ETC
    All are treated and healed by Dr harry.please everyone in this forum or group do not hesitate to contact him.Be free to contact him on his mail at drharrysolution@gmail.com or  website http://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple  
    Or call him or whatsapp him on his mobile number +2349036417079
    wish you the best as you contact him thanks   

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