What explains those varying deaths rates?

TUESDAY, MAY 26, 2020

Some comparisons you've never seen:
What explains the varying death rates from coronavirus in different nations?

In today's Washington Post, this report seeks to explain Germany's relative success as compared to its major European neighbors.

Canada is often praised too. On the other hand, if we consider death rates from various states, here's how some numbers look:
Coronavirus deaths per million population, as of May 26
Canada: 176

Arizona: 116
Missouri: 113
Florida: 110
Germany: 101
California: 97
Wisconsin: 89
North Carolina: 75
Texas: 55
Oregon: 36
California's right there with Germany. Texas has them both beat.

Those are some of our less afflicted larger states. Meanwhile, Europe's most afflicted nations don't look quite so bad when compared to our most afflicted states:
Coronavirus deaths per million population, as of May 26:
New York: 1443
New Jersey: 1260
Connecticut: 1045
Massachusetts: 939
Belgium: 806
Spain: 580
United Kingdom: 546
Italy: 545
Michigan: 526
France: 437
United States: 303
Presumably, many factors go into those widely varying numbers.

At any rate, we've never seen such comparisons before. We compile, you ponder/rue this terrible affliction/seek to explain.

32 comments:

  1. This is playing games with stats. It doesn't answer the question about why different nations have different death rates at all. It only shows that some do.

    If you look at one of the maps that shows increasing vs decreasing death rates nationwide, it becomes very obvious that the northern states with very low population density have the least virus. That explains a lot about Canada, but Somerby hasn't chosen to list Montana and Wyoming which have extremely low death rates.

    Texas is interesting because it has low population density except for its major cities, but it is ignoring shutdown orders and on its way to another outbreak. It isn't finished accumulating deaths, whereas NY and CA have their virus outbreaks under better control. Somerby's list doesn't show that about current conditions either.

    There are some thoughtful analysis of what has worked and not worked across various countries, but Somerby's list sheds no light and is a ridiculous abuse of numbers. If his intention is to suggest that such questions cannot be answered, he is wrong. If his suggestion is that the US shouldn't be treated as a nation, but as a collection of states, he is more on target, not because of the picture the stats present, but because we have had no effective natonal leadership and thus all of the states have been on their own, as if they were individual countries (but lacking the resources and mechanisms a national leader would have available. They are like disabled countries. In that sense, the comparison of states with countries is unfair to the states.

    Why don't people make comparisons like this, Somerby asks? Because it doesn't make sense to do so. And unlike Trump, our goal is not to make the US look better by finagling the data, it is to find answers to the questions we ask. Any other purpose becomes propaganda.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is playing games with stats. It doesn't answer the question about why different nations have different death rates at all. It only shows that some do.

      Pretty much the point, Sparky. TDH says that death rates vary, but there are few explanations known or at least few presented.

      If you look at one of the maps that shows increasing vs decreasing death rates nationwide, it becomes very obvious that the northern states with very low population density have the least virus.

      What maps? You’re talking about infection rates, aren’t you?

      There are some thoughtful analysis of what has worked and not worked across various countries, but Somerby's list sheds no light and is a ridiculous abuse of numbers.

      TDH says the variance in death rates is a conundrum. Do you have access to an explanation? Why are the factual death rates an “abuse of numbers”?

      If his intention is to suggest that such questions cannot be answered, he is wrong.

      OK, then what’s the answer?

      Why don't people make comparisons like this, Somerby asks? Because it doesn't make sense to do so.

      Of course it makes sense to make such comparisons. That’s how we find out what works better to care for the infected.

      And unlike Trump, our goal is not to make the US look better by finagling the data,

      How has this data been “finagled”?

      it is to find answers to the questions we ask.

      And here’s an unanswered question. So what’s your problem?

      Delete
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  2. "Presumably, many factors go into those widely varying numbers."

    Indeed. And apparently Mario's Son deliberately sending infected people into nursing homes is one of them.

    ...and it would be good if we could find out more about NJ, CT, and MA. Eventually we will, I hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You send people into nursing homes in order to free up hospital beds for people who desperately need them waiting in the ER. This is what happens when you exceed your medical resources in an area. It is why places like CA were trying so hard to flatten the curve and keep its own hospitals from being flooded and overwhelmed in the way NYC was.

      Delete
    2. "You send people into nursing homes in order to free up hospital beds for people who desperately need them waiting in the ER."

      Yeah? Whoa, that's brilliant.

      Tsk. And why does everyone keep saying liberals are stupid? I dunno.

      Delete
    3. "And why does everyone keep saying liberals are stupid? "

      It's propaganda designed to elect Republicans, who in turn, do the bidding of the Establishment.

      But you knew that.

      Delete
    4. Mao-zers:

      I agree a full investigation should be conducted and all parties should be held responsible if they are found criminally negligent, especially for actions taken or not taken in February.

      Actions or inactions, what they said on the record to the public and what they knew in private should be taken into account. Every aspect of our tragic response must be examined fully and those in the seat of power must be made to answer for their performance and decisions or lack thereof.

      All parties from the president down must go in front of a grand jury so we can know the truth.

      And if negligence is found, of course they should and will be thrown in prison to rot accordingly.

      Delete
    5. 'All parties' didn't send infected people to NY nursing homes, dear dembot.

      Also, I really don't think it was possible to predict in February that Mario's Son would be doing it in March and April. And even Our Beloved Commander did suspect it, I don't believe federal executive branch could act on it. The US of A is a federation of states, you know.

      Delete
    6. It's not just Trump.
      All Right-wing run federal governments suck.

      Delete
    7. Mao-zie Wowzie:

      The grand jury will sort out culpability. We know what was said and when it was said and records will show what they knew and when they knew it. And I'm glad you mentioned February. We are going to be talk a lot about February. February is going to be a very interesting topic for Trump to explain on the stand under oath. He will have to tell the grand jury under oath your theory: he simply couldn't act on it! It's the way the government is set up. There's nothing he could have done! ;)

      We're going to have a great couple of years Mao-zie. You and me. Talking about February.

      Delete
    8. Dear dembot, March, April, and May, yes, but I'm not aware of Mario's Son Andrew infecting people of NY in February. If you have relevant information, my dear, you definitely should share it.

      Delete
    9. I’m in agreeance with Mao on this issue. Trump can explain to the grand jury that he had no power to fight the pandemic. It wasn’t his jurisdiction.

      It will be good for the historical record to show that President Trump’s tragic lack of action in February and his bizarre statements contradicting what we know he knew don’t really matter because there was nothing he could have done anyway.

      Mao is right that history will show by Trump’s own admission he was powerless to do anything against the pandemic in February and after.

      I’m looking forward to the grand jury testimony from President Trump. (And the governors too!)

      Delete
    10. "I’m in agreeance with Mao on this issue."

      Thank you, dembot.

      "’m looking forward to the grand jury testimony from President Trump. (And the governors too!)"

      Are you implying that the federal government mind-controlled Mario's Son Andrew to infect NY nursing homes, achieving 1443 per mil mortality in NY state?

      If you do have the evidence, you should immediately present it to every grand jury operating in the institution where you're held, my dear.

      Delete
    11. Each party will have their time on the stand. Each party will have their chance to explain their actions and words. Each party will explain what they knew and did as pandemonium set in.

      People will want an accounting of the events that precipitated the tragic demise of the country.

      Delete
    12. Looking forward to Bill Barr excusing Trump's criminal negligence, because the office of the President has no power.

      Delete
    13. I'm also in agreeance with Mao here. Trump had no power to act on the pandemic that was bearing down on and eventually would destroy America as we knew it. The Governors held all the power.

      Ya ask Trump, he'll tell you the same thing.

      Delete
    14. I sure appreciate your 'agreeances', my dear dembots.

      And of course I do share your righteous outrage at zombie rulers of NY, NJ, and CT, who nearly depopulated their states in just 2 months time.

      And while at it, let us congratulate the governments of HI, AL, MT, and WY on job well done.

      Delete
    15. Mao is right. The Governors will also be made to explain themselves before a grand jury in an investigation of the government responses to the predicted and expected pandemic that has left 10's of thousands dead and ruined the economy. Not just Trump.

      Delete
    16. I'm looking forward to president Trump's testimony under oath.

      Delete
    17. Guys I'm going to have to take Mao's side on this one. Trump should tell the grand jury in his criminal negligence trial that it wasn't his fault. There's nothing he could have done in February. So that's why he didn't do anything.

      Delete
    18. Trump bankrupted a casino, FFS.
      If he gets on the stand and says something like, "Everyone knows the world is better off with me golfing, playing around on Twitter, and thinking about fucking my own daughter. 'The Apprentice' is a TV show", he'll walk. It's an ironclad defense.

      Delete
  3. The Worldometer site has the total and per capita numbers and also testing rates:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    ReplyDelete
  4. “Some comparisons you've never seen:”

    “we've never seen such comparisons before.”

    Only one of those statements is (or may be true). And it isn’t the first.

    The comparisons have been raised by commenters to Somerby’s blog days or weeks ago.

    As far as “What explains those varying deaths rates?”

    We are still in the early stages of the virus. Scientists are still trying to understand this and other questions.

    One can google something like “why do states have different Covid-19 death rates” and click on the numerous links to prominent news websites that discuss the possible answers to Somerby’s question, but where’s the fun in that?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Aced this one TDH. Granular apples to granular apples.

    ReplyDelete
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