We answer Kevin Drum's very good question!

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2020

California dreamin': Kevin Drum asks a very good question in this new "Fact of the Day" post. 

As a follow-up to our own report from this morning, we'll answer that very good question.

Drum starts by asking this question:

Why are journalists writing so many reports claiming that the pandemic is out of control in California? 

Drum notes that California has actually been below the national average for new Covid cases over the past few months. Similarly, when we compiled the data we posted this morning, we were surprised to note that California is way below the national average for ongoing Covid deaths. 

Why were we surprised by that fact? Because we'd just seen this morning's Washington Post report, which makes it sound like California is in extremely bad shape pandemic-wise.

California is running below the national average when it comes to new Covid cases. California is way below the national average when it comes to new Covid deaths. And yet, reporting continues which gives a different impression.

At this point, Drum asks his very good question. His question, which is perhaps rhetorical, goes exactly like this:

DRUM (12/5/20): First, as goes the country, so goes California. We’re just following the overall trend. Second, for the past couple of months we’ve been substantially below the national average. I suppose you can say that cases in California are “raging out of control” simply because COVID-19 is raging out of control practically everywhere, but that’s pretty deceptive. In fact, California is doing relatively well. As of yesterday, we were about one-quarter below the national average.

So what’s with the news coverage? Can’t these folks do simple division?

"So what’s with the news coverage?" Drum asks. "Can’t these [upper-end journalists] do simple division?"

We're happy to answer that very good question. Actually, no! Judging from appearances, they pretty much just plain can't!

What follows is an anthropological finding, endorsed by top major experts:

Our journalists are skilled at performing narrative. They don't do very much else. 

For figure filberts only: Average daily Covid deaths, per million population, for the seven days ending December 2:

Daily deaths per million population, as of 12/2:
South Dakota: 29.7
North Dakota: 15.0
United States, nationwide: 5.4
New Jersey: 4.6
New York (state): 3.0
California: 1.7

Go ahead, filberts! Go figure!


26 comments:

  1. Somerby is such an ass. First, the reason why California has figures that are lower than elsewhere is that Newsom has been willing to enact shutdowns, enforced by turning off water and power to non-compliant businesses and individuals. California has taken the virus and necessary precautions very seriously. The Washington Post article describes the shutdown being threatened as the result of Thanksgiving Holiday relaxation of covid precautions.

    There is no conflict between the threatened shutdown and the relatively lower figures for California. California is engaging in such shutdowns in order to flatten the curve so that new cases do not outpace available ICU resources, to keep Californians safer and permit treatment of non-covid medical crises.

    Somerby's unstated assumption is that shutdowns only happen in states that are not succeeding at controlling covid, states in a health care crisis. In California, shutdowns happen to prevent those bad outcomes, not because they have already occurred.

    Why would the Washington Post run a headline about California's lockdown? Perhaps to illustrate for other states how a populous state avoids crisis by anticipating a surge. Needless to say, the Washington Post article is behind a paywall -- Somerby never seems to link to anything that is actually accessible for free and can thus be verified.

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  2. They would probably run a news article if Switzerland or Japan or New Zealand instituted a new shutdown, since they have almost no cases. If they are seeing a rise in cases, it is still news, even if they aren't flooded with them, as most other places are. Maybe it is the same for California?

    ReplyDelete
  3. "New York (state): 3.0
    California: 1.7"

    Think of a weight loss metaphor. How does California maintain its sleek figure? By restricting calories. It does that before it needs to diet, not after gaining weight, and thus always appears slim and trim (e.g., relatively less affected by covid).

    Somerby may be able to divide, but he doesn't appear to be able to think about the big picture very well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also CA is the most significant state in terms of economy, policy, and culture. This drives jealousy, particularly among Republicans; the irony is we in CA do not mind, as we would prefer less people immigrating from other states.

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    2. You're the last one who should be speaking about weight loss and appearing slim and trim. Fat cow.

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  5. Drum, rather unhelpfully, does not list any article out of the, as he puts it, “spate of articles about how the coronavirus is “raging out of control” in California”. So, we’ll have to take his word for it.

    Somerby helpfully provides a link to a Washington Post story that he thinks proves Drum’s point.

    Drum says that California’s Covid spike reflects the spike in the rest of the US.

    And, from the Post story:

    “The situation in California, the country’s most populous state with nearly 40 million residents, reflects a punishing upswing in cases nationwide that has strained hospitals and medical staff.”

    And, indeed, Drum says “Here in California, new lockdowns and travel restrictions are the order of the day. This extreme response to rising COVID-19 cases is based on ICU capacity, so it’s perfectly reasonable.”

    And, indeed, the Post story is about that “extreme response”, since that is newsworthy, just as the lack of a response leading to the highest death rate in the world in South Dakota is newsworthy.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Drum says about California:
    “for the past couple of months we’ve been substantially below the national average.”

    This is an ironic reverse of Somerby’s criticism in his previous post where he complains that death rates in parts of Europe are currently higher than ours. And yet, for months during the summer, our death rate was much higher than Europe’s. That was a time when perhaps “worst in the world” was an even more appropriate description of the US. And that was the time when Somerby pointed to cumulative death rate (not 7-day rolling average) to debunk that description.

    ReplyDelete
  7. David Frum, referring to a story in the New York Times:

    “Good story here, underneath bad headline. Trump won the majority of *places* with high proportions of blue-collar voters. That is not AT ALL the same ting as winning the majority of the blue-collar vote. Biden did win that.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1335344912267620352?prefetchtimestamp=1607276052509

    The headline reads “Joe from Scranton didn’t win back the working class.”

    It’s interesting times when a conservative former Republican is doing media criticism that debunks the anti-Democrat bias in the Times and Somerby is doing whatever he does.

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