It's astounding to see what's happened in Europe!

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2020

Also, The Project speaks: It's astounding to see what has happened to various nations in Europe. 

Two months ago, they seemed to have Covid beat. As of today, even Germany has reached the point where its weekly death rate is approaching our own. 

Weekly death rates in France, Italy and the U.K. substantially exceed our own. The change has been astounding.

We've been amazed by the lack of journalistic interest in this disastrous change. We see where the New York Times has now posted a report on this topic, though we haven't read it yet.

The data shown below are also amazing. They come to us from this data base, but also from a different part of the world:

Covid deaths in the past seven days:
United States: 23,275
Japan: 254
South Korea: 35
Taiwan: 0
Australia: 1
New Zealand: 0

We haven't adjusted for population. Do we really need to? 

Japan's population is roughly one-third the size of our own—a little bit more than one-third. The lack of interest in data like these also strikes us as amazing.

We offer one more point, this time concerning "reported deaths."

Yesterday afternoon, we mentioned an obvious fact which no major cable star knows. There's no way to know how many people have died of Covid on any given day.

That isn't the way our reporting systems work. Unless you watch CNN or MSNBC, where the stars spend little time examining data and instead serve you storyline.

Yesterday, we cited Rachel Maddow's report from Wednesday night. In fairness, her error has been echoed all over CNN and MSNBC. These people are extremely well paid, but they just aren't super-sharp.

A few hours after we posted, so did The Covid Tracking Project. In a late afternoon report for The Atlantic, they discussed the same statistical artefact we had discussed. Along the way, they said this:

COVID TRACKING PROJECT (12/3/20):  Reported deaths were very low for several days through the holiday weekend and on Monday. They have risen sharply since—again, a pattern we expected to see and may see more of as reports finally roll in. It is not possible today to understand which increases in reported deaths are related to backlogs and which are related to actual rises in deaths—which we also expect to see, given that reported deaths follow cases and hospitalizations up (and down) the curve, several weeks behind.

Official reporting of Covid deaths routinely slows over a weekend. This is especially true in the case of a four-day holiday weekend.

That doesn't mean that people stopped dying over the weekend. It simply means that bureaucratic reporting slowed. The "backlog" gets made up during the course of the subsequent week.

For these reasons, the weekend numbers are artificially low. The subsequent midweek numbers are artificially high.  There's no record of deaths on a given day.  That isn't the way it works.

Your cable stars don't know such things because they focus on storyline and on little else. In the end, this lack of interest and curiosity works out very poorly. 

One last point:

You won't hear about European or Australian death rates on our top-rated cable news programs. You won't hear discussions of the way those Pacific nations have seemed to lick the virus.

That won't happen on cable news. Reason? Aside from simple-minded storyline, your top cable stars don't care.


26 comments:

  1. I don't know what "Cable Stars" Bob watches, but I have heard repeatedly that approximately as many deaths were reported in the U.S. yesterday (note that I didn't say "died yesterday" because we have learned that we can't really determine how many people died on a certain day) as have died in Japan during the entire pandemic.
    Also, if history repeats itself, the European totals will jump very quickly, then will start to decline, while ours will not jump as quickly, or as high, then will continue at a very high level for an extraordinarily long time, after which our death totals per 100,000 will exceed those of all but a few of countries.
    In a couple of months, Trump will still be yelling about how he got cheated, Biden will be trying to get people to wear a mask, and Somerby will still be telling us about how stupid "Cable news stars don't care."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which "Cable Stars" do you watch?

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    2. I don't watch much cable news.
      I prefer to get my information from cuckold videos.

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  2. It is not important what is going on in Europe re covid. we aren't allowed to go there.

    What matters is whether people engage in social distancing and wear masks.

    It really doesn't matter whether South Dakota is the worst in the world or only the 3rd worst in terms of covid statistics.

    What matters is whether we all engage in social distancing and wear those masks.

    Those Asian countries are not making news right now. That's because they are engaging in social distancing and wearing masks, and have a low enough case load to do contact tracing and quarantine when they find someone infected. Public health is boring when it works, because there is nothing to report on cable news.

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  3. “Covid deaths in the past seven days:
    United States: 23,275”

    Hey, Bob. That works out to 3,325 per day.

    Remember a long time ago, yesterday, when you said we hadn’t reached 2,000 per day yet, and you chided Rachel for saying we were close to 3,000? Good times.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Good bloggers read comments. Hell, some NYT columnists answer critical comments. Not Bob. He’s too busy chastising liberal cable talking heads to do so or to do the numbers referred to by mh.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Media stayed away from reporting the high mortality rates in Europe, because they wanted Trump and Republican Governors to look bad. For our media, the Narrative comes first.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump didn't need a comparison with Europe to look bad:
      "It is what it is."

      Delete
    2. Dotard in CaliforniaDecember 5, 2020 at 9:18 AM

      Right on David.
      Under President Trump we only had a little more than 1/3 of new cases repoeted globally yesterday. Why won't the US media cover the other 2/3 of the cases.

      Delete
    3. Shush David. We wouldn't want the media to report on the comprehensive German study on how widespread mask wearing cuts the infection rate in half.

      Delete
    4. Geez David at least Mao had the dignity to stick his head in the oven.

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    5. In Republicans' defense, they wouldn't have wanted > 300,000 American citizens to die from COVID, if they knew they weren't all going to be black.

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