TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2024
Not an unknown phenomenon: Back in the day, presidential election outcomes could really jump around.
In 1960, Kennedy won the nationwide popular vote by one-tenth of a point. Four years later, Johnson won by more than 22 points!
In 1968, it was close again—Nixon won by less than a point (with Wallace draining off votes).
In 1972, the deluge again. Nixon won by just over 23 points.
Where have all the landslides gone? All in all, blowouts have ceased to exist. Still, the victory margin still can change in substantial ways from one election to the next.
Let's take a look at the record! These are presidential elections:
Victory margins, popular vote
1984: Republican candidate by 18 points
1988: Republican candidate by a bit less than 8
1992: Democratic candidate by more than 5
1996: Democratic candidate by 8.5
2000: Democratic candidate by half a point
2004: Republican candidate by roughly 2.5
2008: Democratic candidate by a bit over 7
2012: Democratic candidate by 4
2016: Democratic candidate by 2
2020: Democratic candidate by 4.5
2024: Republican candidate by (possibly less than) 2
You can possibly see our point. Victory margins do jump around, sometimes involving a change in which party wins. Sometimes, the change in voter sentiment can still be substantial.
There was a 13-point change in 1992. That was followed by an 8-point change in 2000 and a 9.5-point change in 2008.
The change this year will be maybe 6 points—and that was with an accidental Democratic candidate who thought she'd be saying "I'm with Joe" until quite late in July.
In our view, Blue America needs to figure out how to do better. Based upon basic human wiring, there's little chance that we'll consider the ways we ourselves may perhaps have possibly earned our way out.
For extra credit only: "It wasn't close," Gayle King interjected.
This is prevalent Storyline. Our basic questions would be these:
Do you think that statement makes sense? Also, Where do they get these people?
Was the election close?
ReplyDeleteA small swing in the vote in just three states would have created a different outcome. How much of a shift was needed?
Pennsylvania, about 75,000 votes or 1 percent
Michigan, 40,000 votes or 7 tenths of a percent
Wisconsin, 15,000 votes, or just less than 5 tenths of a percent.
A shift of a total 140,000 votes would have us welcoming in President Harris. Does that count as a close election? I'll wait here for one of the usual Nonny Mouses to tell me it doesn't.
Sorry. Forgot to say that my imaginary shift would have given candidate Harris 44 more electoral college votes, just enough to give her a total of 270.
DeleteThis is just like Hillary’s loss.
DeleteYes. Unfortunately the dead people have chosen to stay in their cemeteries this year. How inconsidered of them.
DeleteQuaker makes a good point. But I don’t think it matters that much. With the Rep Senate and (barely) Rep House Trump will govern as if he had a landslide. There’s no one to stop him.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that's what he'll do, also. I'm just doing my bit to add a comment that's within hollering distance of staying on-topic.
DeleteA 6.5 swing to Donald Trump in 4 years. Amazing.
ReplyDeleteSomerby is right about one thing, the dominance of right wing billionaire media will not provide the most desirable outcomes for 'Muricans.
DeleteNot only will none of those voters who swung to Trump see any benefit, they will likely lose ground economically. Many of them did better during Biden’s term.
DeleteAnd most of the insurgent Republican candidates who won, as in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania are mega rich backed by oligarchs, whose interest is …. well, not the working class.
If you say so, Mr. Soros, Sir. Yes, if you say so.
DeleteTrump selected Peter Hegseth for Sec of defense. Trump sure likes smart people.
ReplyDeleteWhich cabinet post will Hulk Hogan fill?
DeleteTrump is going to pardon Antifa for their actions on January 6, 2021.
DeleteJust kidding. The entire Right-wing media apparatus lied about them being Antifa in service of bigotry.
Hi- hum. Another day that ends in y for the Right..
He went to Princeton and Harvard. Two strikes against him but his promise to eradicate the woke rot from the military overcomes them.
Delete8:37,
DeleteAnd yet again, another existential problem for the Rught is papered-over in service to one of the two things Republican voters actually care about.
Who could have seen that coming?
(Narrator: Everyone.)
"Trump sure likes rich people."
DeleteFTFY.
I’m beginning to believe “David in Cal” at 8:19 wasn’t the genuine article. But there is enough to doubt to be uncertain…
DeleteWait. This isn't a joke?
DeleteI don’t believe so. Although, in some sense, yes.
DeleteApparently Tucker Carlson wasn’t available. The idea that our military needs a Fox talking head to shape it into greatness is just one more joke in what will be a long series of such.
DeleteSecretary of Defense is traditionally a non-partisan position.
DeleteHey Dickhead in Cal, I thought you never watched FOX NOOZ?
DeleteIf I and every other idiot-moonbat shave our heads and move to Canada, everything will return to normal. Yes, yes, yes.
Sure. If you say so, Soros-bot at 8:53.
DeleteIf voters want to get rid of ObamaCare, because their healthcare is covered by the ACA, we should give them what they want. Hard.
ReplyDeleteYes, when Barack Obama stops checking their blood pressure, they will suffer.
DeleteYup. Can't wait for the RFK Jr appointment.
DeleteMake Polio Great Again
Delete9:43 need to put that on a hat. LOL.
Delete