SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2024
...in the seven swing states? We were struck by something Tim Alberta said on Friday night's Washington Week.
Inquiring minds quickly wanted to know. Could this statement be accurate?
GOLDBERG (11/8/24): Tim, how did Trump win?
ALBERTA: I think the long and short of it is that—it's interesting, Jeff. If you look at the seven battleground states, in most of them, Kamala Harris won more raw votes than Joe Biden did four years earlier. So, she actually did her part, to a large degree, at least in those seven states.
Say what? Could that statement be accurate?
Let's be clear. In 2020, Candidate Biden won the nationwide popular vote by roughly 4.5 points. This year, Candidate Harris is going to end up losing by something like two points.
That's a substantial step in the wrong direction—especially since the winning candidate was essentially unelectable by any traditional reckoning.
That said, in all the novelized talk about this year's overwhelming landslide disaster, is it possible that Candidate Harris won more votes, in those seven swing states, than Candidate Biden did?
We decided to take a look at the record! (We'll be the first to admit that such things are rarely done.)Statewide vote, Pennsylvania
Candidate Biden, 2020: 3.46 million votes
Candidate Harris, 2024: 3.37 million votes
Statewide vote, Michigan
Candidate Biden, 2020: 2.80 million
Candidate Harris, 2024: 2.73 million
Statewide vote, Wisconsin
Candidate Biden, 2020: 1.63 million
Candidate Harris, 2024: 1.67 million
Statewide vote, North Carolina
Candidate Biden, 2020: 2.68 million
Candidate Harris, 2024: 2.69 million
Statewide vote, Georgia
Candidate Biden, 2020: 2.47 million
Candidate Harris, 2024: 2.54 million
Those are the five swing states where this year's vote has been fully counted. (Possibly with a few votes yet to trickle in.)
Technically, Alberta got it right! On balance, we'd say that Candidate Harris basically matched Candidate Biden's vote total in those five swing states.
Why then did Candidate Trump win those five swing states? For the record, he won those states by fairly narrow margins. Here's Alberta's assessment:
GOLDBERG (continuing directly): Although we were looking at that map just a few seconds ago, and the Blue Wall is pretty red.
ALBERTA: The Blue Wall has gone red, and, and you ask yourself, "Well, how could that have happened?" Because actually, Donald Trump was able to turn out significantly more votes than he had turned out in either 2016 or in 2020 in those states.
And if you think about what his campaign had been talking about all summer and all fall, this idea of mobilizing low propensity voters, specifically looking at men under 40, white men, Latino men, black men, all of whom are not regular voters, not regular parts of any party's coalition, turning them out in numbers that we had never seen before.
[...]
We're not just talking about persuading erstwhile Democrats to flip and go Republican. We're talking about turning out voters who had never been registered to vote before, bringing them out in these states specifically...
In Alberta's (rough) assessment, Candidate Harris didn't lose votes in the handful of states which actually matter. Candidate Trump added voters (and votes).
For the record: Votes are still being counted in Arizona and Nevada. But it looks like this pattern is going to hold in those last two swing states too.
In fairness, there may be more eligible voters in those states than there were in 2020. But with many Great American Novels being written about this year's election, we thought those actual statistics—those actual numbers—ought to be placed on the pile.
Breaking every rule in the book, we decided to take a look at the record! When we did, that's what we found.
Concerning the right to choose: Our modern journalistic culture gives you the right to choose.
You can choose to look at the actual numbers, as Alberta apparently did. Or you can listen to Blue America's cable news stars, in which case you may be told that Candidate Trump lost four million votes nationwide, as compared to his total vote back in 2020.
Also, the Ravens beat the Bengals on Thursday night, 35-34.
It was a very exciting game. It's possible that a certain "cable news" lord actually knew the actual score of that important encounter!
Thanks.
ReplyDelete"especially since the winning candidate was essentially unelectable by any traditional reckoning."
ReplyDeleteFrom your keyboard to the media's News sections, Bob.
Republicans got their ground game in order in a hurry this time. Next time with realigned constituencies, a perfected ground game, and no Trump on the ballot (his voters will all vote Republican) they will be unstoppable. JD Vance is a frighteningly effective candidate.
ReplyDeleteYes, Trump was essentially unelectable by any traditional reckoning. But, so was Harris. Who could imagine a candidate almost incapable of handling an unscripted interview?
DeleteTrump won so there’s no need to keep lying about Harris.
DeleteThis must be a huge relief to you, 1:11 PM.
Delete"Who could imagine a candidate almost incapable of handling an unscripted interview?"
DeleteAgreed. But what is your criticism of Harris?
Unelectable, David?
DeleteI don't think so. Harris has, in fact, been elected to several offices. She can speak sensibly and rationally and she can make her positions understood.
Was she the best candidate in this election? We can argue. The best in recent elections? Maybe not. But "unelectable" is off the mark.
Harris's inability to handle herself in an unscripted setting was perhaps best on display at her only one on one debate with Donald Trump when she mopped the floor with him, such that he put his tail between his legs and said no mas to any such future encounters.
DeleteCheer up Democrats. Amidst all this gloom and doom, there are rumblings that Anthony Weiner is mulling a comeback.
ReplyDeleteNot surprising you'd bring him up (pun intended).
DeleteA comeback? As what? An evangelical church "youth pastor"?
DeleteGym Jordan would get a good laugh out of that joke.
DeleteTrump did lose votes compared to 2020. That he gained in the blue wall states replicates Hillary’s loss, but it doesn’t change that he lost overall compared to 2020. Odd that he gained votes there without campaigning much there.
ReplyDeleteFrom yesterday. Here's a photo of (what I presume) is a FEMA instruction list of Best Practices. Second on the list is
ReplyDeleteAvoid homes advertising Trump
https://x.com/michaeljknowles/status/1855419329359089774
FEMA reports to the President. The president has total carte blanche to commit crimes and total immunity from any judicial review. The corrupt SC6 says so.
DeleteSo go fuck yourself, Dickhead.
Michael Knowles is a propagandist. Why do you consume this crap? It has made you a bitter old man.
DeleteThe photo does purport to be an instruction list for disaster workers on the ground in one location in Florida. It is good that David is referring back to original sources rather than relying on someone else's descriptions or conclusions about the matter.
DeleteI recommend viewing the link David provided and clicking through to enlarge the image (especially if your eyesight is anything like mine.) Note the number of participants in this group chat--you can see that number near the top of the screen shot right below the group name. Also note the context in which the advice to avoid houses with Trump signs and flags is given. This list is not about who deserves help or who will receive it. It is all about the health and safety of the workers.
Now why on earth would anyone think that visiting a house with a Trump flag might be a safety risk? Anyone? Anyone?
I was especially entertained by the fifth item in the text message's bullet list. Sent by a Douglas Adams fan, mayber?
DeleteMichael Knowles sets off gaydars everywhere he goes, I mean cmon, he even played a gay guy back in his “acting” days, his most convincing role.
Delete"It is all about the health and safety of the workers."
DeleteIt's no wonder the Right is losing their shit over it.
In terms of health and safety, those with Trump signs on their lawns are much more likely to own guns and be in a fragile state (due to hurricane trauma) that might cause them to wave them around or even shoot at stranger (without realizing they come offering aid). They may believe FEMA people are looters and shoot on sight. I don't think Trump supporters realize how they come across to others -- perhaps Somerby should lecture them about it, now that they are in the majority?
DeleteIf they were listening to Trump's nonstop lies about FEMA they might be found not guilty for taking a pot shot at a FEMA worker, especially if the judge was a Trump appointee, and if not, they could expect to acquire their freedom along with the mob that injured over 140 capitol police after the felon takes office.
Delete
ReplyDeleteWith joy and hope, I'm shaving my head. And I will continue dedicating myself to celibacy.
What an asshole Somerby is.
I am Corby.
Not everyone finds you funny.
DeleteBut some of us do.
DeleteIf you find this kind of thing funny, you just might be a Republican.
DeleteYou don't find it funny because you're dumb as a doorknob, Corby.
DeleteWhy is this blog infested with right wing trolls like this?
ReplyDeleteMore pertinent and accurate question: why is this blog infested with anonymouse commenters who call the blogger a Russian agent?
DeleteThat's not an answer.
DeleteWhy does the Right call themselves "America First", when America is a distant third in their eyes behind Russia and Israel?
DeleteTrump changed that to America's First Garbage Can, being a patriot and all.
DeleteAnonymices can’t answer my question, they can only start shooting spitballs. They cannot deny that they troll this blog and accuse Bob of being a liar and a national traitor.
DeleteNow to the point of today's post from Our Host.
ReplyDeleteOne of the frequently stated pre-election observations from Blue Team pundits was this: Trump isn't winning any new voters. His crazy antics like "They're eating the dogs!" and turning his town hall into a DJ session can only chase voters away. There's no way for him to improve on his totals from 2020.
Well, that was wrong, apparently.
It will be an interesting study in the weeks and months ahead to learn who these voters were and how Trump's team managed to motivate them.
Yesterday I watched an interview with Charlie Kirk, someone I knew nothing about. Apparently he’s a big star who deserves credit for the many new Trump voters. He said his organization Turning Point USA had persuaded lots of young people to support Trump and registered many of them. He also had millions of followers on the Social Media platforms that attract young people.
DeleteQuaker you typically offer good comments, this one is very flawed and incorrect.
DeleteSounds like your kind of guy DiC:
Delete"Charlie Kirk’s youth-focused right-wing organization Turning Point USA has become increasingly radicalized over the last decade, frequently leaning in to Christian fundamentalist rhetoric and lies about the 2020 election. On campuses across the country, TPUSA chapters and members have embroiled themselves in controversy over racist stunts and bigoted remarks of their own, while demonstrating increasing ties with the white supremacist “groyper” movement associated with Holocaust denying Gen-Z streamer Nick Fuentes. Kirk has repeatedly denied that racism exists within his organization, while continuously spouting virulently racist and bigoted remarks daily on his show, The Charlie Kirk Show."
Charlie Kirk, the miracle worker who was able to get republican voters to elect a bigot?
DeleteI hear he worked hard on that project. LOL.
@4:58
DeleteDo go on.
@5:24 - you make some harsh accusations against Turning Point USA. Could you please provide examples that support your accusations?
DeleteThat's the group where a young man raised his hand during a session and asked "When do we get to use the guns?"
Delete@David
Delete5:24's quoted text is from a Media Matters article. If you highlight a big chunk of that text, right click, and choose Search Google, the first result you see should be a link to the original story. It contains the examples you request.
Thanks Quaker. Wasn't sure about linking here. DiC reminds me of my wife's family who only consume the propagandist news, and are more angry after the felon's victory for us being dirty libs than I have ever seen or heard them before.
DeleteYou can link here, but you have to do the html tags by hand.
DeleteI've got an idea, DIC. Why don't you pay one of your grandchildren to teach you how to research topics on the internet?
DeleteSomerby’s analysis today is incredibly stupid.
ReplyDeleteGenerally, every election, candidates get more votes, because the population increases over 4 years.
Trump got significantly less votes than he should have, considering the 2020 vote and the increase in population. In reality, Trump lost support.
Back in the day, Somerby mocked this kind of disingenuous analysis that he offers today, back when Republicans tried to argue their plan did not cut Medicare, or other nonsense that did not take into consideration inflation and increases in cost of living.
Somerby used to write long blog posts about how deceitful it was for Republicans to push false narratives that ignored aspects like inflation and using real dollars, yet today that is the same kind of nonsense he is pushing.
Got any data?
DeleteDidn't think so.
“Somerby used to write long blog posts about how deceitful it was for Republicans to push false narratives that ignored aspects like inflation and using real dollars, yet today.,,.”
DeleteAnonymouse 4:54pm, you and your boss, Soros, didn’t like Bob then either.
Republicans are thrilled hearing the crazy progressive left mainstream of the Democrat party double down on their arguments with the small minority of Democrats who recognize the abuse of children with surgeries and hormones, men claiming to be women invading women's spaces, insane relentless scolding and screams of racism are not going to fly with large and growing segments of voters. America has turned the page.
ReplyDeleteFreedom is just another word for "woke".
DeleteThat’s not my experience. I am transgender, and lots of people I meet welcome me and are very kind. And I live in a red state. Aside from some vocal activists, most trans people are just trying to live their lives, and the ones I know are lovely people who wouldn’t dream of forcing themselves on anyone. It’s sickening that the GOP has chosen this small group of vulnerable, sensitive people to beat up on.
Delete"large and growing segments of voters" End of the week Trump will be lucky to be at 50.4% of the popular vote. In my state of MO we passed restoring Roe abortion rules, raised the minimum wage (2'nd time), require paid sick leave, defeated a proposal to extract fees from convicts to pay to the police (good God that one was sick and twisted). So we know deep red states that the insurrectionist won by double digits do not care for assinine Republican policies. I think it is more rewarding a cult of personality and the enjoyment people have punching down than permanently growing. Also a lot of instances where Trump ran away with the State, but did not translate downballot.
DeleteMedical "professionals" that sexually mutilate children are not "vulnerable and sensitive people." They are monsters and we're ending their reign of terror.
DeleteThis is a non-issue because it is not happening.
DeleteHow about the sexual mutilation of adults. Is that happening?
DeleteBoob enhancement?
DeleteA couple of years ago I had to explain to a Trump supporter that they do not, at Boston Children's Hospital, perform sex change operations on fetuses in utero. It was obviously a very appealing piece of misinformation to him, insofar as it could be debunked with the touch of a finger. Which he didn't apparently feel the least bit inclined to do. But it wss making the rounds and resulted in threats to physicians at that Harvard affiliated hospital.
DeleteWhatever you say, Mr. Soros, it must be true.
DeleteSoros has done more for democracy in Eastern Europe than your cult leader or his patron, Putin, ever will.
DeleteWe'll kick the fascists asses, like we did in the 1940s.
DeleteThis time should be easier. They quake in fear over drag queens, nowadays.
Whatever you say, Mr. Soros. Yes, sure, they quake in fear when they see you.
DeleteShameless lying is the go to tactic for right wingers. Too bad Trump voters don’t know or don’t care about the truth.
DeleteIf you say so, Mr. Soros.
DeleteIf you want to see bipartisanship in action, checkout the point of absolute agreement between 9:24 laying on the truth so thick, 9:57 HAD to agree with them.
DeleteThis is how it's done, folks.
Somerby needs to read this:
ReplyDeletehttps://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2024/11/elite-is-not-synonym-for-democratic.html
"ELITE" IS NOT A SYNONYM FOR "DEMOCRATIC VOTER"
But "Idiot" IS A SYNONYM FOR "DEMOCRATIC VOTER".
DeleteThanks for the Right-wing hilarity, Gutfield.
DeleteThanks for watching, soros-bot.
DeleteMicah X. Johnson died for our sins.
DeleteImagine what the result would have been with equal coverage.
ReplyDeleteThe final Media Research Center (MRC) study released last week showed evaluative coverage of Harris — excluding “horse race” assessments — on ABC, CBS and NBC was 78% positive vs. 22% negative. For Trump, those numbers were flipped: just 15% positive press, vs. 85% negative coverage.
The media coverage of Oama bin Laden was more negative than it was of Ronald Reagan, too.
DeleteThis kind of bias is built in to the media.
Soy, should read Osama bin Laden.
DeleteBut you get the point.
Trump's campaign recorded more lies than George Santos, by orders of magnitude, but the media is supposed to ignore them like DIC, lest they be called biased.
Delete
DeleteWhatever you say, Mr. Soros, Sir.
Yeah, whatever Davey Dave. The MRC is a partisan outfit.
Delete2:51 name calling is a sign of intelligence in your cult
DeleteYou can argue on the percentage of negativity the media had towards Trump and about whether they were right to be much more negative toward Trump and correct in being fairer toward Comma La.
DeleteThe point is that it was of no effect. The public went for him. He made inroads into minority pops. He kicked her butt.
Eked out a win. Against a woman, no less.
DeleteWhat's a "woman"?
DeleteAnonymouse 6:29am, by Tuesday , anonymices will be arguing everything and 50 % MORE as to what Bob fretted as to being Comma La’s weaknesses.
DeletePress 2 for Spanish.
DeleteHarris was punished at the voting booth for Biden's closed border policy.
DeleteHarris was punished at voting booth for not being ready for prime time.
DeleteIn fact that pov was stated by Pelosi, who had wanted an open primary so Comma La could either get stronger or be bested by a stronger rival.
DeleteHarris was punished?
DeleteIt was Biden's closed border policy that lost Harris the election.
DeleteAnonymouse 8:18am, that’s adorable.
DeleteBreaking news:
ReplyDeleteAn inside source has suggested that a new cosmic reveal of source code is about to unfurl in a few weeks at the Hotel Dehrsde! Stay tuned...
a long fannyburp
DeleteEnjoy your last Veterans Day, America.
ReplyDeleteTrump is getting rid of it, because some of the veterans beat his side in WWII.
Thank you for shaving your head, Morby. You look amazing.
DeleteAnonymouse 6:31am, the number of hysterical women on X , shaving their heads on camera and saying that they are refusing to sleep with their men, is alarming in that it’s all of the worst stereotypes of women as being histrionic and having power only in their sexual allure.
DeleteThey’re howling as well about having their tubes tied as though reliable contraception is nonexistent. If my daughter acted like these ninnies, I’d throttle her.
What kind of country gives women agency?
DeleteYou can tell Cecelia's daughter by her "Queen of Epstein Island" sash.
DeleteAnonymouse 7:31am, all Western ones and these women act as though they’re the ones in burkas.
DeleteAnonymouse 7:35am, and you act like you can spew a nasty insult at a woman because you don’t like her mother’s point of view.
DeleteThat’s part of the jumbled thinking of liberals.
8:01,
DeleteTry to cope.
Cecelia,
DeleteYou act like you can come here and insult Bob's readers, just because you're a bigot.
Anonymouse 8:19am, no, it’s because the blog owner isn’t restrictive and you’re an idiot.
DeleteAnonymouse 8:18am, cope? It’s a victory to see you jettison all your progressive pretensions.
Delete8:24,
DeleteWhat are you babbling about? It was us progressives who kicked your asses in WWII.
Going for a second bite of the apple isn't going to work out for you this time, either.
Anonymouse 8:28am, those same people would have put anonymices in pysch wards, prisons, and of the societial outhouse. Anonymices hate those people and hate most of the current population.
DeleteInflation is at 2.1%
ReplyDeleteUnemployment at 4%
Stock market at record highs
Manufacturing boom:
**************
The United States is currently experiencing a manufacturing boom, driven by increased investment, construction, and hiring:
Investment
In February 2024, annual investment in new manufacturing facilities was nearly $225 billion, which is a record high. This is due to bipartisan legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and the CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS Act). These acts provide tax incentives and direct funding for manufacturing construction.
Construction
Spending on manufacturing construction has doubled since the end of 2021. In May 2024, annual construction spending in manufacturing was $234 billion, which is triple what it was in January 2020.
Hiring
Over 750,000 new manufacturing jobs have been created since early 2021. The industry is projected to create 3.8 million new jobs by 2033.
Corporate interest
S&P 500 executives have been more focused on reshoring, with mentions of it more than doubling in the first quarter of 2023.
The manufacturing boom is primarily focused on computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing. The largest manufacturing subsectors in the U.S. are computer and electronic products, chemical manufacturing, and food, beverage, and tobacco products.
**********
But the price of eggs was over $5/dozen for a year so let's bring in the fascists to clean things up. Propaganda really works.
Horrible. I suggest you start shaving your head immediately.
DeleteIt’s too bad that kids need to eat eggs for breakfast rather than internet blurbs from BlackRock.
DeleteDo you take issue with any of the facts, Cecelia?
DeleteHow is Donny J Chickenshit going to make eggs cheaper? Tariffs?
Unfortunately, Democratic party made the same mistake they always make, they overestimated the intelligence of the American people.
They thought the American people were about as intelligent as we idiots-moonbats. Big mistake.
DeleteAnonymouse 8:59am, no, the Democratic Party always overestimated its own intelligence. Exponentially overestimates it.
DeleteIt’s why you ask how Trump is going to lower the price of eggs, rather than asking why Harris and her media acolytes didn’t talk more about the price of eggs. .
Cecelia, she did talk about the price of eggs. I can't tell you how many red hatted maggots I have seen totally shocked to find out that they will be paying the tariffs! Bwahahaha!!!
DeleteUnfortunately, she ignored crisis of our public schools changing the sex of the young students without the parents' permission. Fuck you,
Cecelia didn’t hear it, so Harris must not have discussed it. That’s “reasoning” for you.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:21am, and she had the misfortune of being in a party whose DoJ made treats of investigating parents who got loud at school board meetings over sexualized books and study content and about school policies that forbade parents being informed when their kids claimed to be trans. You are amazingly blinkered.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:25am, you’re ignoring the brilliant and eternal DNC party line that the anonymouse offered up in calling the voters too dumb to vote on their candidate. Don’t forget too misogynistic.
DeleteThis was a brilliant move too :
Deletehttps://thehill.com/homenews/race-politics/4929604-obama-backlash-black-men/
that's more bullshit, Cecelia. The justice department has a duty to protect school board members threatened with physical violence. I know you don't understand this, because you're packed to the top of your skull with carefully cultivated grievances. There's no room left in your skull. Your grievances are coming out of your ears now. Propaganda is very effective on the weak minded.
DeleteIf they can't buy eggs, why don't they eat foie gras?
DeleteThey're eating the cats and dogs! They're eating your pets! What about the geese!
DeleteAnd your lunch.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:53am, I’m not talking about my grevances, I’m talking about liberal cluelessness.
DeleteThere are people popping champagne corks over that.
What about the cats and dogs, Cecelia?
DeleteAnonymouse 10:11am, your insults are launched at me and my “grievances”. Show me where I ever rended my garments over “cats and dogs”.
DeleteCecelia, you support a demagogue who looked the American people in the eye and fucking lied about the cats and dogs. You and I knew he was lying. And that wasn't anywhere near a deal breaker for you. That 's enough for me to judge your moral character.
DeleteAnonymouse 11:46am, I don’t think Trump was lying. I think he believed it, wanted to believe it and, of course, immediately ran his mouth. Due to all the drama via the border and the issues as to the numbers coming in, few people immediately discounted it. Pat yourself on the back. You made this.
DeleteAccusing Cecelia of supporting Trump because he's a liar, and not because of Trump's bigotry, is way out of line.
DeleteI know some people are upset, but let's not lose sight of reality over it.
Anonymouse 12:14pm, I have politicians, you have absolute paragons. It’s why you’re in this line of work.
DeleteI don’t think Trump was lying. I think he believed it,...
DeleteThat doesn't work as an excuse, Cec. I won't bother explaining to you why, I will leave it as an exercise for you to think about.
Debating anything with you is like arguing with a chimpanzee flinging feces.
Anonymouse 2:12pm, are you kidding? You throw more expletives at people than a NYC cab driver. Than a woman in labor with breached twins.
DeleteDo you think credulousness is a good thing in a president? Do you think that not holding your tongue until you know more is a good thing? Do you think saying these things in the company of anonymices is a wimping-out excuse?
Now read my statement as to politicians vs paragons.
There's not a single glacier left in the Sahara desert. None. This is so depressing, I can't stop crying.
ReplyDeleteSomerby is an ass.
I am Corby.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete