Stoddard conquers death: If 15 million fewer people are insured next year, will premature deaths occur?
To state the obvious, yes, some will. Insurance, and health care, are like that!
Still and all, the bosses at Fox don't want such things said on the air. A. B. Stoddard seemed to know that when she appeared on the channel last night.
Stoddard was part of "the all-star panel" on last night's Special Report. When guest host Bill Hemmer set her up, Stoddard knew how to play:
HEMMER (6/26/17): Nancy Pelosi had a stinging statement just about an hour ago, "People will die If Trumpcare becomes law. Trumpcare is a prescription for unspeakable suffering. We are in a life or death battle for families across America."It was a skillful play.
Loaded! A.B.?
STODDARD: It is her specialty this week, if you've been listening to her the last few days, fighting to retain her minority leader position.
The Democrats have done this, Chuck Schumer's Senate, there's a lot of dramatic—
Every single time the Republicans put votes up to repeal Obamacare during the Obama era, the Democrats used the same kind of language about their replacement plan, that repeal was going to kill people. It's really not new. The problem is for President Trump, no one believes that the Democrats are obstructing this.
They know that the Republicans are fighting amongst themselves, that they have created a partisan process, a narrow restrictive procedure that will give them a simple majority vote that Pence could break a tie with and become the 51st vote. And they are fighting among themselves. So it's really—
HEMMER: Do you think it's going to happen this week or not?
STODDARD: You know, I don't think it has to. I think they would prefer it. The leaders are trying to pretend it has to happen this week, but I think they would let it up. But it's not going to slip past August 1.
"It's really not new," the cable guest said. The Democrats have always used that same kind of language!
It was a skillful cable news play. You'll notice that she never said that Pelosi's statement was wrong.
It's all part of being a "cable news" guest! Increasingly, the game is played this way on Our Own Cable Shows, as well as on shows Over There.
new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that a U.S. life expectancy dropped in 2015 – a year after the major provisions of the ACA went into effect – and for the first time since 1993, when according to NPR, the drop was attributed to the AIDS epidemic, a flu outbreak, and an spike in homicide rates. While the relationship between health insurance and mortality might still be debated – and it is certainly too early to suggest, as NPR's analysis implies, that the ACA is as bad as the AIDS epidemic – one thing is clear: There is no evidence that the ACA is, on net, saving lives.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/12/11/new-evidence-obamacare-is-not-saving-lives/#196d2a1a7d3c
Does it seem fair to you to assess the results of a program before it is fully implemented? Does it seem right to assess benefits of preventive care after only one year when such benefits accrue at the end of the lifespan? The recent decrease is being attributed to opiate abuse and increased suicide rates, from what I've read. If you were really an actuary you would not only know that, but you wouldn't be expecting definitive results from ACA after only one year.
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Funny nobody said anything about opiate and opioid abuse.
ReplyDeleteWith David in Cal here we see Republican rage continuing to fuel low integrity approaches to issues.
ReplyDeleteThe 2014-2015 difference in life expectancy was a blip, 1.2%, likely due to economic issues leading to an increase in suicides, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, etc:
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/11/02/453192132/in-reversal-death-rates-rise-for-middle-aged-whites
In reality, prior to ACA, death rates had been rising since 2009, again likely due to economic issues, but apparently the ACA has countered that trend:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN?end=2015&locations=US&start=1985
There is indeed more evidence the ACA is saving lives:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/health/african-american-death-rates-cdc-study/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/health/us-infant-mortality-report/index.html
http://www.care2.com/causes/studies-prove-obamacare-saves-lives-but-the-gop-is-still-attacking-it.html
The ACA did more than just stop the increasing death rate trend, it's main accomplishment has been improving the daily health of all US citizens, in particular the poor and elderly. This is evidenced by the huge increase in those now covered by health insurance.
Unfortunately the ACA has failed to increase the integrity-health of many Republicans. For that, like herpes, there may be no cure.
That is a good point. If ACA increases quality of life on a daily basis, that wouldn't be reflected in death rates.
DeleteIt's commonly known as "How to Lie With Statistics".
ReplyDeleteDinC, Your provocative post is appreciated. Having followed the trail from Forbes to the expert cited there, and to the larger debate on the issues he discusses, however, I find the claim rather less powerful than you seem to think one should. First, you must be aware that a mortality spike in year one of Obamacare proves nothing at all. I could put the cure for all cancers on the market tomorrow and I wouldn't expect to see anything happen to mortality in twelve months, especially if an opioid epidemic killing young people is being widely reported. Secondly, the expert Forbes cites in support of its hostile report is not exactly overwhelming. His article cited by Forbes is from 2009, since which time a whole bunch of people have published in leading journals on a whole bunch of health indicators' associations with insurance, including mortality. If anything makes this guy's argument more authoritative than any since, I can't guess what that might be, especially as his argument seems to have a rather big whole in it: he says that having insurance makes no statistically significant difference to mortality if you 'control' for socioeconomic status and state of health at the beginning of the long observation period, which raises the question: do the poor die young because they are poor, because they don't have insurance, or because they don't take care of themselves? The argument that insurance coverage doesn't help is weakened by the same data that weakens the claim that it does.
ReplyDeleteBut let me go back for a moment. The cited article is from 2009. Yes, that's before Obamacare. And if I remember correctly, the data set he was using ended in 2002. So, while the argument is now flying around right-leaning circles, it doesn't actually have anything to say about any policy put in place by the Left: it just says that having insurance through your job doesn't make you live longer than you would (on average) with no insurance at all, in other words, the guy seems to have a problem with health insurance per se, rather than any socialized medicine boondoggle dreamed up by crooked HillaBill.
One has to wonder: why does anybody buy health insurance in the first place? Maybe it has something to do with something other than how long your insurance keeps you alive. Maybe it has something to do with the difference between being alive and being healthy. Maybe it has something to do with avoiding medical debt.
I'm glad the Forbes article excited you. If I happen to notice any other articles of minimal significance for which a far-right spin can be fashioned in thirty seconds, I'll send them your way.
But here's the larger point: It's fine to be a gadfly, and those on the left should have their complacent beliefs challenged the same as anybody else, but crappy arguments don't actually challenge anything, don't puncture any bubbles. They just require an audience to spend valuable time figuring out what makes a troll a troll and a tool a tool.
I used to think that people here just shut you down because you threatened them. And that probably happens sometimes. But after following your nonsense two steps toward its source a couple of times, I'm reminded of something the original gadfly said once: some people's speech is like a clanging bell, to be silenced rather than answered. Hope that in future your job and family will keep you more fully occupied.
Nicely done, thank you.
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Delete"D in C is our own CINC (Cherrypicker-in-Chief) and I love him."
DeleteFTFY
I am not sure if Somerby reads the comments her, but he needs to renew the domain for the original dailyhowler.com website, because it has expired.
ReplyDeleteTry emailing him, I did that many years ago and he responded.
DeleteWhat, Bob is looking at distortion on the most watched channel that has become our Official National Propaganda Channel for our unhinged President?
ReplyDeleteIs his clicker busted?
Let me ask you a very important question:
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