Did Trump manage to run "a close race?"

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2020

Sadly, he pretty much did: On the whole, we agree with the general thrust of Matthew Yglesias' essay from the Outlook section of yesterday's Washington Post.

We disagree with one thing Yglesias said—and we think the point is important.  We were surprised when Yglesias said the race between Biden and Trump "wasn't even close:"

YGLESIAS (11/30/20): Incumbents don’t often lose, and for Trump to do so while a majority of voters told Gallup they were better off than they were four years ago is extraordinary. Despite Trump’s post-election antics, the race wasn’t even close. Biden scored a larger share of the popular vote than any challenger since Franklin D. Roosevelt facing down Herbert Hoover, and his moderation was almost certainly key to that success.

The race "wasn't even close?" Sadly, we disagree. Consider:

Liberals and Democrats have all agreed that Trump won a narrow victory over Clinton in 2016. The standard talking-point has been reasonable:

The difference was a mere 78,000 votes in three midwestern states.

That actually was pretty close. That said, the difference as Biden defeated Trump this year was a mere 44,000 votes in three scattered states:

Approximate victory margins for Biden:
Arizona: 10,500 votes
Georgia: 12,700 votes
Wisconsin: 20,600 votes

Those were narrow wins. If Trump had managed to win those states, the Electoral College vote would stand at 269-269—and under the rules of our creaking system, we'd have called that advantage Trump. 

Meanwhile, Biden won Nebraska District 2's one electoral vote by 22,000 votes. That means that Biden managed to win the election by a margin of (roughly) 66,000 votes in three states and one congressional district.

There's one major difference here, of course. On the other hand, you might call it the major difference which isn't:

At present, Biden leads the national popular vote by 6.1 million votes. On the other hand, Biden's current vote total represents just 51.1% of the national vote—and roughly five million of his six million vote margin are "wasted votes" from California.

Under our creaking election system, we don't award the presidency on the basis of the national popular vote. Given the massive number of "wasted votes" for Democrats in California and New York, Republicans may continue to win the White House in future years while losing the popular vote.

In truth, this election was scarily close. The margins were narrow in three decisive states, as was true in 2016.

Our election system creaks badly. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates will continue to pile up tons of "wasted votes" in two of our largest states. 

This helps define the mess we're in. It seems to us that we ought to be clear about the shape of that ongoing problem.

The Other 49: To his credit, Biden managed to win the popular vote in "The Other 49." As matters stand, he won California by 5.1 million votes—but his nationwide lead is 6.1 million votes.

That means that he won the popular vote in the other 49 states. But even there, it was close. He won by well less than one point.


16 comments:

  1. Even if we grant Somerby his massive finagling, those margins in those 3 states were despite the best efforts of Republicans to suppress the vote and prevent mail voting, in the midst of a pandemic. That makes even those slim margins seem trivial because under normal circumstances, those states would never have been that close.

    But the larger question is why Somerby wants to engage in this exercise of making it seem like the majority of people actually wanted Trump in office for 4 more years? And how on earth can any human being call 5 million votes "wasted," as if Californians are second-class citizens? There were "wasted" votes in every single state where Biden won a majority, under Somerby's criterion. But no citizen in this country is a "wasted" vote because every vote counts and every person matters in our democratic nation (note small-d for democracy, not the Democratic Party).

    Somerby's argument once again amounts to a desire to consider Republican votes as more worthy than Democratic votes. No, Trump did not almost win. At worst, he almost tied, but he didn't even manage that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. anon 5:15 - TDH isn't engaging in an exercise of making it seem like the majority of people favored Trump. Can't you read. He was disputing the pundit's claim that the vote 'wasn't even close." TDh's point was that it was close. It doesn't do you or the democratic side any good to be living in a dream world, pleasant though that may be. .

      Delete
    2. Except it wasn't actually close. Somerby is engaging in the same kind of thinking as other Trump supporters. His arguments are called "sophistry." I explained why it wasn't close. Did you read that part? That is why Democrats are not living in a dream world -- it is the disappointed Trumpies who inhabit that territory.

      Delete
    3. Yes I read your "explanation." It was poor. I don't think you understand the meaning of 'sophistry.' It was close - facts are facts. You seem deluded if you can't see that. You have this self-pleasing hypothesis that the vote would have been greater for Biden but for efforts of Trump and the GOP to suppress the vote, but whether that is the case, all these Biden voters who would have voted but didn't is speculative at best. Even if what you say is true, seemingly because it satisfies your desire that it be so, the vote actually was close.

      Delete
    4. ACMA: Biden’s wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan we’re not close. When you add their electoral votes to the blue wall electoral votes (consisting of 21 states that are solidly blue), he only need 2 more electoral votes, or one additional state, to reach/exceed 270. It wasn’t really close. He gained three additional states and the Omaha district.

      Delete
    5. Hello viewers around the Globe, I was despondent because i had a very small penis, about 2.5 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy a woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the INTERNET about this specialist called Dr,OLU and decided to contact him on his email: Drolusolutinthome@gmail.com) so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis Enlargement, Within 3 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr OLU I also learn that Dr OLU also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement etc.. If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr OLU now for help on his email ( Drolusolutionhome@gmail.com ) or add him on whatsapp line +2348140654426 

      Delete
    6. Omg I Finally Got Helped  !! I'm so excited right now, I just have to share my testimony on this Forum.. The feeling of being loved takes away so much burden from our shoulders. I had all this but I made a big mistake when I cheated on my wife with another woman  and my wife left me for over 4 months after she found out..  I was lonely, sad and devastated. Luckily I was directed to a very powerful spell caster Dr Emu who helped me cast a spell of reconciliation on our Relationship and he brought back my wife and now she loves me far more than ever.. I'm so happy with life now. Thank you so much Dr Emu, kindly Contact  Dr Emu Today and get any kind of help you want.. Via Email emutemple@gmail.com or Call/WhatsApp +2347012841542

      Delete

    7. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
      Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever











      LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
      Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever

      Delete
  2. And I suppose that if you subtract all of the Democratic votes, then Trump won by a landslide. What an ass Somerby is.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Somerby is right. I thought our side believed in data?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Biden, as Obama and Hillary, started out with a blue base of 21 states with 232 electoral votes. This means he needed 38 more electoral votes to win. He did this by winning Pennsylvania and Michigan (36 electoral votes total), with margins that were not tiny (over 150,000 votes in Michigan and over 80,000 in Pennsylvania), which means that Biden only needed one more state to win. He won two that neither Hillary nor Obama had won (Arizona and Georgia), and won back Wisconsin, which Hillary lost.

    Close? Sure, if you finagle the data.

    ReplyDelete
  5. i am very grateful sharing this great testimonies with you, The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how i win the lottery. I am a woman who believe that one day i will win the lottery.finally my dreams came through when i email Dr Padman . and tell him i need the lottery numbers. i have come a long way spending money on ticket just to make sure i win. But i never know that winning was so easy until the day i meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, so i decide to give it a try.I contacted this man and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out i was among winners. i win 1.900.000 million Dollar. Dr Padman truly you are the best, with these man you can will millions of money through lottery. i am so very happy to meet these man, i will forever be grateful to you. Email him for your own winning lottery numbers padmanlovespell@yahoo.com. OR Whatsapp or WhatsApp +19492293867 Website: https://padmanspell.com

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wells Fargo card activation: If you are searching for information about wells Fargo activate the card but till yet don’t get the right information which helps you to know Wells Fargo credit card activation the process, then guys this post will help you to make wells Fargo card activation number.

    ReplyDelete

  7. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
    Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is the right blog for anyone who wants to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually would want…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Great stuff, just great!

    Fxopenforum.com
    Information
    Click Here
    Visit Web

    ReplyDelete
  9. I do not know if it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your blog.

    It looks like some of the written text in your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This may be a problem with my browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Kudos

    Homemate-research-zoo.com
    Aquaguard.com
    Kimaarkitektur.no
    Earnupdates.com

    ReplyDelete